2022 Draft Discussion

[NCF]

Fellow first-round pick Devonte Wyatt had a 99th percentile finish in the 40-yard dash, 20-yard split and 10-yard split and a 93rd percentile finish in the three-cone drill at 304 pounds. Both first-round picks can really move.

Years ago I looked at combine stats, trying to ID stats/stat combos at each position that led to pro success. I found a couple for pass rushers that have proven quite prophetic, that have become pretty well known now (the speed rusher formula and power rusher formula for edge). Edge was definitely the strongest correlation, but there were decently strong ones for all defensive groups. DT had a reasonably strong correlation, but I can't explain why. Usually you'd think bench or jumps or 3 cone for DT's as its important for their play. Nope, 40 time.

At DT the stat (or stat grouping) with the strongest correlation to pro success is the 40 time (or at least was as of 10 years ago).

I tend to be much better at identifying patterns than explaining why that pattern exists, especially when the pattern borderline defies explanation. This is one of those cases. I can't really tell you why, but draftable DT's that run good 40's tend to work out in the pros.

Even weirder, the overall correlation between 40 time and pro success, comparing position groups, DT came out as the position with the strongest success correlation. No offensive position had any real correlation whatsoever.

Glad to see ya have a bit more time now to post, I think I remember you said home life and Job stuff took all your leisure time, whatever, always enjoy your comments

Ya, who would ever correlate 40 time for DT to help determine possible success, the guys make a living inside a 5X5 yrd box lol, like you I always felt the cone, jumps where the biggest deciders for them, and truth be told I've missed on far more DT's then I hit on, thing is ya have to draft em and hope ya got it right, gotta have em, I never faulted Ted for guys like Neal, or Worthy, it's a high bust rate position ( maybe bust is to strong a opinion, just that most don't play up to slot taken, just my opinion of course).
anyway of all these DT's, I think we got a good one, maybe not best at either tech, but good at both.

Maybe it is the combination of high end explosion to get to top speed and stamina to maintain that for the full 40 yards that is telling? That is very bizarre correlation for sure.

[salmar80]

Fellow first-round pick Devonte Wyatt had a 99th percentile finish in the 40-yard dash, 20-yard split and 10-yard split and a 93rd percentile finish in the three-cone drill at 304 pounds. Both first-round picks can really move.

Years ago I looked at combine stats, trying to ID stats/stat combos at each position that led to pro success. I found a couple for pass rushers that have proven quite prophetic, that have become pretty well known now (the speed rusher formula and power rusher formula for edge). Edge was definitely the strongest correlation, but there were decently strong ones for all defensive groups. DT had a reasonably strong correlation, but I can't explain why. Usually you'd think bench or jumps or 3 cone for DT's as its important for their play. Nope, 40 time.

At DT the stat (or stat grouping) with the strongest correlation to pro success is the 40 time (or at least was as of 10 years ago).

I tend to be much better at identifying patterns than explaining why that pattern exists, especially when the pattern borderline defies explanation. This is one of those cases. I can't really tell you why, but draftable DT's that run good 40's tend to work out in the pros.

Even weirder, the overall correlation between 40 time and pro success, comparing position groups, DT came out as the position with the strongest success correlation. No offensive position had any real correlation whatsoever.

I saw several people mentioning broad jumps in particular. The Packers seem to grab guys who were elite in this particular drill, and for all positions. Maybe that's a specific one they look at that is a good indicator of explosion.

I guess 40 time speaks for lower half explosion and overall athleticism. If you can't bend, hard to run fast. That's rare in big men, so I'm not surprised the 40 is a good indicator of NFL success for DL, even if the drill itself has no NFL application.
.
But since it's super rare pass rushing DL to be able to overpower NFL guards, what successful inside rushers tend to be is technicians who play smart. That part shows in no combine drills.

[NCF]

[Labrev]

I think the correlation simply tells apart guys who are dancing bears from guys who are just your run of the mill fat slobs.

[YoHoChecko]

I think the correlation simply tells apart guys who are dancing bears from guys who are just your run of the mill fat slobs.

[mention]Waldo[/mention] has done a lot of analysis on this over the years--albeit years ago. But the actual leg strength it takes to move large bodies that quickly is really telling from a power, strength, and explosion point of view. It's not that running 40 yards translates 1:1 with anything a DT does on the field, but 40 time has a causal correlation with leg strength and explosion; and leg strength and explosion has a causal correlation with DT success. So it ends up standing in for a very key measurement. It DOES matter even if a DT is unlikely to run 40 yards ever. It tells you information that matters.

[Waldo]

But jumps are a much better measure of leg explosion and the correlation there is much poorer. Also the 10 split more correlated to power (you can predict 10 split fairly well with 40 and jump data).

The best I've settled onto is the training aspect. These guys are football players, not powerlifters, and are going to be expected to play 20-30-40 downs a game. The best you're going to get in 1-2 reps isn't what you're going to get over 30. The guys that run good 40's are the ones that train to be good athletes, not 1 round sumo wrestlers. Above a certain weight, it isn't genetics that makes you run faster, its training. You can train your way to a sub-12 second 100 (if you include getting to low bodyfat levels as training), obviously a DT isn't going to do that, but it illustrates my point. Bit of an esoteric explanation, but its all I've got.

I've seen a similar point made about WR's and the bench; it doesn't really translate to the field, but it'll pick out those that are serious about being professional athletes.

[YoHoChecko]

I also want to say that I think this year's draft was the perfect example of drafting "the highest player at any position of need" strategy.

Some people rank needs and want to address them in that order: Need 1: WR, Need 2: DL, Need 3: iLB; so you should draft a WR first, then worry about DL, then worry about iLB

Some people say you should draft the best player on your board regardless of need: hypothetical, but imagine the top player on the Packers' board playing RB where we have two co-starters, and a developing young player (Hill) to replace one co-starter when the contract moves us beyond him... or QB where we have a HOFer and a 1st round pick on the roster... who cares, take the best player.

What we did was say: hey, we have some needs. The best player who fits any of those needs will come off the board in whatever order we can address them. And while that led to some angst and consternation waiting for the top needs to get filled, by the time the class was complete, we hit a bunch of needs with volume and talent.

[BF004]

Just off the film, Wyatt continues to look like the guy who could have gone at 22. Certainly looks like a steal at 28.

Don't feel like finding it, but Gute basically said in his presser day one that Wyatt was in play for 22 and he was surprised he was there at 28.

Also telling that they traded up for the equivalence of pick ~26 to get Christian Watson. Christian Watson cost more draft capital than Wyatt. Thats kind of hard to wrap your head around.

So some decent evidence they got 3 guys they probably had around top 20 grades on.




Something else that is kind of interesting, not sure if directly spelled out , but no WR's went between 22-33. So can't say we missed on anyone in that time.

[YoHoChecko]

Who has the McGinn subscription? Can we get an update on what the scouts say about our picks? haha

[YoHoChecko]

Stolen topic from another thread:

We have talked about this before: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... t-success/

RB and LB are the easiest transitions for rookies. DL/DE and TE are the hardest transitions for rookies.

I agree about RB's, not ILBs you just used lber to describe a edge rusher, nice try

Here is the updated list of the top 140 rookie performances over the last 32 seasons:
37 28.46% RB
20 15.38% WR
19 14.62% QB
15 11.54% LB (NOT EDGE)
13 10.00% OT
8 6.15% iOL
6 4.62% EDGE
5 3.85% CB
4 3.08% S
3 2.31% DL
0 0.00% TE

That is the top 130 players, all with an AV of 10 or above.

Here is adding in all the AV 9s:
45 21.84% RB
32 15.53% WR
28 13.59% QB
25 12.14% OT
24 11.65% LB
20 9.71% iOL
9 4.37% DL
8 3.88% EDGE
7 3.40% S
6 2.91% CB
2 0.97% SPT
0 0.00% TE
206

Our first 4 picks featured players from 3 positions that have been providing as rookies: WR, OT, LB (I'm keeping Rhyan as OT until he's not, based on college position and press conferences)

[YoHoChecko]

Some analytics:

The Athletic compared the draft slots of players to their consensus big board rankings and then assigned them a value based on the analytically-based Rich Hill value chart. By that measure, the Packers had one of the biggest reaches in the draft (Quay Walker picked at 22, valued at 51, and high enough in the draft to be valuable picks), but still finished top ten in total draft value return on investment (based on draft capital going into the draft)

image.png (93.65 KiB) Viewed 549 times

Warren Sharp used whatever his own methods are to determine that the Packers got the second-best value in the draft (again, corrected for draft value entering the draft, hence the Panthers scoring well despite few picks)

[Yoop]

Just off the film, Wyatt continues to look like the guy who could have gone at 22. Certainly looks like a steal at 28.

Don't feel like finding it, but Gute basically said in his presser day one that Wyatt was in play for 22 and he was surprised he was there at 28.

Also telling that they traded up for the equivalence of pick ~26 to get Christian Watson. Christian Watson cost more draft capital than Wyatt. Thats kind of hard to wrap your head around.

So some decent evidence they got 3 guys they probably had around top 20 grades on.




Something else that is kind of interesting, not sure if directly spelled out , but no WR's went between 22-33. So can't say we missed on anyone in that time.

good point, I was thinking about that, Basically we got the the first WR that went tier two, Lafluer was so tuned into WAtson, spent a lot of time with him during the visit, once the most ready top 3 WR went, and maybe not even then, we where going to find a way to get WAtson, hense that 19 slot move to get him at 34, add in Rodgers calling him post pick, they have plans to get him ready quick, and the kid has the brains to grasp it, I see some big chunk pass plays on the horizon.

Lafluer acts like this is like Christmas morn to a 8 yr old

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/packers-co ... 28934.html

[Yoop]

I also want to say that I think this year's draft was the perfect example of drafting "the highest player at any position of need" strategy.

Some people rank needs and want to address them in that order: Need 1: WR, Need 2: DL, Need 3: iLB; so you should draft a WR first, then worry about DL, then worry about iLB

Some people say you should draft the best player on your board regardless of need: hypothetical, but imagine the top player on the Packers' board playing RB where we have two co-starters, and a developing young player (Hill) to replace one co-starter when the contract moves us beyond him... or QB where we have a HOFer and a 1st round pick on the roster... who cares, take the best player.

What we did was say: hey, we have some needs. The best player who fits any of those needs will come off the board in whatever order we can address them. And while that led to some angst and consternation waiting for the top needs to get filled, by the time the class was complete, we hit a bunch of needs with volume and talent.

Well said, I know I came off as a bit over board this year for a WR, but the need is obvious, and it seemed all I heard was this class is weak at the top but strong threw a couple rounds, but I wanted the most ready to play, and typically thats just the first few.

I sure didn't see our first pick coming, none of the draftnik people did either, I didn't even study ILB's, I thought it could be Wyatt, or a safety, so Walker was a surprise, the more I read about Watson the more I like him, 3 needs, all filled, just not in the order I expected, Lafluer is gushing over WAtson

[YoHoChecko]

Some final (haha, who am I kidding) thoughts on our draft class re: expectations

It's a weird class for me. My expectations are very high for many picks, but I view our FIRST pick as sort of a bonus at this point. Like Quay Walker's success or failure will determine if this is a great draft class or a good draft class. The rest of the picks inspire that much confidence in me. Let me break it down:

Day Two: two home runs. Christian Watson and Sean Rhyan will start and be plus players in this league. I have zero doubts or qualms about typing that sentence.

Some others:
Between Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker, we can expect two guys who hang around and assume a 50% hit rate to say that one of those two goes on to be a productive NFL player. By the end of year two or three, we will have a starter from this pair.

Between Romeo Doubs and Samari Toure, we can expect two guys who hang around and assume a 50% hit rate to say that one of those two goes on to be a productive NFL player. By the end of year two or three, we will have a starter from this pair.

JJ Enagbare is a near lock to be a rotational guy in the Garvin vein. He'll hang around and range from useful rotational guy on a first contract to plus player who earns a second contract somewhere (maybe here!)

The 7th rounders--Carpenter, Ford, Toure, and Walker are likely to give us 2 or so ST-worthy players who make an impact on that phase of the game over the course of their restricted free agency years.

Devonte Wyatt is a very high-floor prospect. He will either hit his potential as a disruptive wrecking crew or be a rotational upgrade to Kingsely Keke, which would be a disappointment but not a bust.


So at this point, we have Watson, Wyatt, and Rhyan as future starters from this draft and probably 2-3 more guys who play a longer-term role from our Day 3 picks, playing the odds. That's a successful draft. Now if Quay Walker hits and lives up to his traits, we have a great draft. If he completely busts, we are left with a still pretty good draft but with some regrets. Anything in between is a sliding scale along that axis.


So those are my expectations. They are awfully rosy. I probably felt similarly last year (Myers and Rodgers being my definite contributors, Newman and CVL being my 50/50 hit, Slaton being my "bound to have a role" defensive 5th rounder, Jean-Charles, McDuffie, and Hill being my STers who will help but maybe only one finds a role as a starting NFL player or plus NFL player (though I love/d Hill), and Stokes being my raw athletic UGA guy who will determine between a good and great draft. Rodgers' rookie struggles are a warning to my fallibility. But still... I like this class more than last year's and I think both have a FLOOR of "that was a solid draft class!" Go Gutey.

[Waldo]

I like that they swung for the fences on D. We get a coverage stud at LB and more interior pressure and this defense all of a sudden is extremely lacking in holes of any sort; the makings of a named/remembered group.

Pair that with a low turnover offense and you've got championship material. Of all the things Aaron does well, protecting the ball is that one trait that he's the absolute unquestioned tier of his own GOAT.

[YoHoChecko]

So it turns out Go Long lets you read a couple articles for free, so I have access to MOST of the McGinn "Scouts Say" info. Unfortunately the Day Two link was the 4th article I opened so I only have about half of Christian Watson and none of Sean Rhyan.

That said, there's a pretty strange trend this year. Recall that McGinn collects these quotes before the draft, though he may select some quotes and not others to meet a narrative. Generally speaking, the "scouts say" features are just insight and info into the things teams know/think that the general public rarely has access to, so it's highly valuable.

I want to post some selections, with the caveat that there are plenty of quotes that don't mention these things. But it has seemed a strange trend reading through:

On Quay Walker:

AFC scout: He’s a height-weight-speed prospect with questionable instincts. He was a rotational kind of guy at Georgia. Is he a great player? I wouldn’t go that far. If he was there in the second round I’d say go ahead and do it. You’re not going to miss on the athlete or the height-weight-speed numbers. If you miss it would be his (instincts). He can’t be the green dot.

NFC scout: Something’s missing with him.

AFC scout: “Very quiet and keeps to himself. Not a bad kid but poor communicator at times and emotional. Can be hard to deal with outside of football. Off-ball linebacker not completely natural to him. Able to learn the defense. Not a leader. Instincts slow him down some.

AFC scout: “He’s green. Only started for one year. Can’t run the defense. He can play on all three downs. He’s big and tall and can run. He’s better than (Patrick) Queen.”

On Devonte Wyatt:

NFC scout: “He’s a f---up so he may slide but he is talented... I’m still working through his off-the-field. Domestic violence.

AFC scout: Struggles to learn. Aptitude concerns are real.

AFC scout: There has been some underachiever to him over the course of his career.

AFC scout: “He’s a little bit of a turd but he’s got more upside than Davis.

On Romeo Doubs:

AFC scout: Borderline introverted type personality.

AFC scout: He caught my eye at the Senior Bowl. He is very mentally frail. That was very much a concern that our scouts had.

NFC scout: All that stuff (at the combine) doesn’t scare me. They all say what a good kid he is.

NFC scout: He’ll need help to develop life skills after leaving school, and will need guidance at the next level. Still learning how to take notes and study the game. Quirky personality. Hard worker who handles his business.

On Zach Tom:

AFC scout: His intangibles for center aren’t great. He is more of an independent contractor. Not a great worker. Not awesome football character. Not a bad kid off the field but for center, you want a dude, a guy that’s smart, a leader, an excellent worker. He didn’t have those things but physically, yes.

NFC scout: Quiet kid, not super vocal, works hard, consistent at practice every day, lead by example guy.

On Kingsley Enagbare:

AFC scout: He’s a good-hearted, likeable guy who means well. Frustrated the (staff) with his stubbornness and lack of maturity at times. He got frustrated too easily sometimes and they’d have to talk him out of that head space. Needs a kick in the ass at times to set him straight or get him going. Carries himself as if he’s arrived. Thinks he’s better than he is

On Tariq Carpenter:

NFC scout: Has a ton of upside to match up with tight ends with his size and length (32 5/8 arms), but he lacks confidence to trigger. Lacks route anticipation, will bust occasionally. Doesn’t trust what he sees. Bad eye discipline. Needs to play faster mentally. Not a violent player. Comes to balance but hesitates to trigger and tackle. Well-liked and nice, but like many people with a stutter lacks confidence. Not a leader. Good kid, just a timid personality. A tic late to react to everything. Has some learning concerns

On Jonathan Ford:

AFC scout: Has some sloppiness and laziness. Lacks explosion and violence and finish.

On Rasheed Walker:

NFC scout: He’s got physical talent. There’s just a little concern about who the guy is, the mental, his football character stuff and if he’s long enough to be outside. Tape is good, but through the process more questions have come.

AFC scout: He is supremely gifted but has zero intestinal fortitude. Lazy. He is an eternal f---up. He’s got no confidence and he’s got no heart. He’s a mental midget. But he’s going top 100.”

AFC scout: “He’s hit or miss. There are really good plays and really bad plays. He’s a tackle so he’ll get a chance. Very inconsistent.

Like, I know a LOT of stuff gets said, and obviously there were some quotes that would contradict some of that and different people will feel different ways about players' personalities.

But that said, there are just SO many guys in our draft class with phrases like introverted or quiet, timid, lacks confidence, not a leader.

When I see this much of it, I can only assume the team knows; and they feel really, really strongly about the quality of their locker room and coaching staff to bring out the best in an interesting crop of personalities--in guys who may have been dropped down the board a little for not having the kind of football mentality and mental toughness that teams typically prefer. I am not at ALL posting this to rag on the kids. This process must be insane for everyone. But it certainly is worth pondering in terms of team philosophy, locker room fit, the quality of the veteran leadership without Z and Davante around, etc.

[Pckfn23]

Are these all the quotes or ones you selected?

[YoHoChecko]

Are these all the quotes or ones you selected?

Ones I selected to point out all the weird personality comments. Not even close to comprehensive. I guess I should copy and paste the whole thing in each player thread, huh?

On it!

[Ghost_Lombardi]

The scout quotes remind of the scene from Moneyball where the scouts are talking about this and that player ("I like him, he's a player..." or "he's got no juice...") and the quant guy just keeps harping on about on base percentage...

[wallyuwl]

The scout quotes remind of the scene from Moneyball where the scouts are talking about this and that player ("I like him, he's a player..." or "he's got no juice...") and the quant guy just keeps harping on about on base percentage...

Ask 5 different scouts about the same guy and they will give five different answers. I lol at most of those quotes (same thing when McGinnis writes his yearly article with scout quotes), so many contradict each other.