Player Transition from College to NFL

[Pckfn23]

Here is a look into the top rookies from 1990 to 2021 broken down by position:



I used PFR's Approximate Value to determine top rookies. Here is the breakdown of that metric:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... x37a8.html

I also broke it down into 3 categories, top 130 (AV 10+), Top 206 (AV 9+), and Top 366 (AV 8+). You can also look at the raw numbers on the 3 separate tabs.

I went through the defensive front 7 to make sure their position designation was correct (iDL, Edge, off the ball LB).

Enjoy.

[NCF]

So the percentages show the positional share of everyone that made the list. It would also be awesome to see how many players were drafted at each position to get an overall success rate for each category.

Some of those names in the data were fun to remember. I saw the 2 TE's and figured Pitts, but struggled to come up with the other one. I forgot how good young Shockey was.

[Pckfn23]

So the percentages show the positional share of everyone that made the list. It would also be awesome to see how many players were drafted at each position to get an overall success rate for each category.

There is not a good way to find/calculate undrafted guys which this data includes. It also would be tough to differentiate between DL, EDGE, and off the ball LB. I could do it for other positions though.

[NCF]

So the percentages show the positional share of everyone that made the list. It would also be awesome to see how many players were drafted at each position to get an overall success rate for each category.

There is not a good way to find/calculate undrafted guys which this data includes. It also would be tough to differentiate between DL, EDGE, and off the ball LB. I could do it for other positions though.

I would think you could just ignore undrafted guys and just find a percentage of success cases (drafted or undrafted) / drafted players. Yeah, the DL/EDGE/LB issue is always tough. Maybe just make one Super Front-7 category that just combines it all to make it easy? I am not necessarily asking you to do any additional work. Just throwing it out there as a "something I would like to see". Appreciate the effort you have already done.

[Yoop]

Patrick Queen makes my point, any ol dumb ass can start as a 2dn lber, they don't have to be good, teams put them in as long as they know how to count to 2, that way they know when to come off the field, they can big time suck and they still get to play, Queen is a great example, sucked for the most part as a rookie, and for the first part of his second season, then topped the league later in the season.

Patrick Queen the first five weeks:
29.0 grade
Lowest among all LBs

Patrick Queen the last two weeks:
90.5 grade
Highest among all LBs

[Pckfn23]

What IS your point?

Patrick Queen got a 9 AV and was 3rd in DROY of the year voting. He played 80.34% of the defensive snaps. He was not a 2 down off the ball LBer...

[Yoop]

What IS your point?

Patrick Queen got a 9 AV and was 3rd in DROY of the year voting. He played 80.34% of the defensive snaps. He was not a 2 down off the ball LBer...

He sucked as a rookie in coverage, it was so bad he lost his starting gig

lot of rookies play, often it's because the position is so weak there simply the best alternative, specially at ILB, the crap that we've used because of that is common across the league, thats the point.

[Pckfn23]

What IS your point?

Patrick Queen got a 9 AV and was 3rd in DROY of the year voting. He played 80.34% of the defensive snaps. He was not a 2 down off the ball LBer...

He sucked as a rookie in coverage, it was so bad he lost his starting gig

lot of rookies play, often it's because the position is so weak there simply the best alternative, specially at ILB, the crap that we've used because of that is common across the league, thats the point.

It doesn't matter if Patrick Queen, 1 player, sucked in coverage...He didn't lose his starting gig... He has started every game the last 2 seasons.

Lots of rookies do play, but it is not because the position is so weak that there is not a better alternative. That is a narrative driven fallacy. That crap that we have used as a Packers team is not common across the league. That is another of your narrative driven fallacies.

Look at data that I brought. The defensive position with the greatest number of players at the top in terms of AV is off the ball LB. The guys on the list are not just 2 down LBers...

[NCF]

What IS your point?

Patrick Queen got a 9 AV and was 3rd in DROY of the year voting. He played 80.34% of the defensive snaps. He was not a 2 down off the ball LBer...

He sucked as a rookie in coverage, it was so bad he lost his starting gig

lot of rookies play, often it's because the position is so weak there simply the best alternative, specially at ILB, the crap that we've used because of that is common across the league, thats the point.

I also think what we have asked from that position has continually evolved over the past 20 years and has created the need to re-define the qualifications and move on to the next body in order to have a shot at fulfilling them.

[Pckfn23]

So the percentages show the positional share of everyone that made the list. It would also be awesome to see how many players were drafted at each position to get an overall success rate for each category.

There is not a good way to find/calculate undrafted guys which this data includes. It also would be tough to differentiate between DL, EDGE, and off the ball LB. I could do it for other positions though.

I would think you could just ignore undrafted guys and just find a percentage of success cases (drafted or undrafted) / drafted players. Yeah, the DL/EDGE/LB issue is always tough. Maybe just make one Super Front-7 category that just combines it all to make it easy? I am not necessarily asking you to do any additional work. Just throwing it out there as a "something I would like to see". Appreciate the effort you have already done.

Offense:
QB - 394
RB - 799
WR - 1049
TE - 483
OT - 599
OG - 486
OC - 210
OL - 74

[Yoop]

After showing flashes of dominant play-making ability as a rookie last year, expectations for Baltimore Ravens second-year inside linebacker Patrick Queen were sky high entering the 2021 season.

Queen showed improvement in areas of perceived deficiency during training camp as well as in limited snaps in the preseason this offseason. Unfortunately for the Ravens and their 2020 first-round pick, he struggled during the first five weeks of the regular season. Many of the problems that cost him in the DROY race down the stretch last season reared their ugly heads. Queen consistently missed tackles and had lapses in coverage as the starting MIKE linebacker.

Those struggles forced the Ravens to reduce Queen’s role and elevate veteran Josh Bynes into a full-time starting role. Instead of wallowing in despair over his shortcomings, the 22-year-old defender responded with his best games of the season over the team’s last two games before their bye week.



and thats how it is for most of the lbers on your list, they struggle in coverage, and also have trouble reacting to the run, it's a thinking and play recognition thing, but hey you believe whatever you want.

[Pckfn23]

and thats how it is for most of the lbers on your list, they struggle in coverage, and also have trouble reacting to the run, it's a thinking and play recognition thing, but hey you believe whatever you want.

No. That is not how it is for most LBers on the list. You are looking at 1 player and projecting that to all of the other players without even trying to look to see if it is factual. You are 100% making things up to drive an unfounded narrative.

I challenge you to go look at every LB on the list and let us know how their rookie year went compared to Patrick Queen.

[Yoop]

What IS your point?

Patrick Queen got a 9 AV and was 3rd in DROY of the year voting. He played 80.34% of the defensive snaps. He was not a 2 down off the ball LBer...

He sucked as a rookie in coverage, it was so bad he lost his starting gig

lot of rookies play, often it's because the position is so weak there simply the best alternative, specially at ILB, the crap that we've used because of that is common across the league, thats the point.

I also think what we have asked from that position has continually evolved over the past 20 years and has created the need to re-define the qualifications and move on to the next body in order to have a shot at fulfilling them.

of course, I've said that a lot, years ago ya wanted a bull dog, AJ Hawk, and your safety's took care of most of the coverage, MLBer had a stationary roll, defend the run and make sure the QB doesn't take off, other then Barnett, Chiller and a few others, we usually subbed out lber 2 for a safety on passing downs.

It's different now, now we have a ton of up tempo short zone passing and RPO so not only do the lbers need coverage ability but also have to play stout against the run, most are decent against the run, a fail doesn't usually become a big yardage chunk play, a fail with coverage often does, to me thats the big change.

[Pckfn23]

What IS your point?

Patrick Queen got a 9 AV and was 3rd in DROY of the year voting. He played 80.34% of the defensive snaps. He was not a 2 down off the ball LBer...

He sucked as a rookie in coverage, it was so bad he lost his starting gig

lot of rookies play, often it's because the position is so weak there simply the best alternative, specially at ILB, the crap that we've used because of that is common across the league, thats the point.

I also think what we have asked from that position has continually evolved over the past 20 years and has created the need to re-define the qualifications and move on to the next body in order to have a shot at fulfilling them.

Defense:
Front 7 - 2466
DE/DT/DL - 1401
ILB/OLB/LB - 1065
CB/S/DB - 1590

[Yoop]

and thats how it is for most of the lbers on your list, they struggle in coverage, and also have trouble reacting to the run, it's a thinking and play recognition thing, but hey you believe whatever you want.

No. That is not how it is for most LBers on the list. You are looking at 1 player and projecting that to all of the other players without even trying to look to see if it is factual. You are 100% making things up to drive an unfounded narrative.

I challenge you to go look at every LB on the list and let us know how their rookie year went compared to Patrick Queen.

I don't need to look it up, I watched it happen for many years, maybe your the guy that should look it up, I blew your nonsense up with one google look with Queen, why don't you go look at Barnetts coverage struggle year ONE, or Butkus, or Nitchke or Sam Huff, or Wagner etc.

your like the Bob McGinn of Packer- Huddle, contorting any stat line to win a point

[Pckfn23]

and thats how it is for most of the lbers on your list, they struggle in coverage, and also have trouble reacting to the run, it's a thinking and play recognition thing, but hey you believe whatever you want.

No. That is not how it is for most LBers on the list. You are looking at 1 player and projecting that to all of the other players without even trying to look to see if it is factual. You are 100% making things up to drive an unfounded narrative.

I challenge you to go look at every LB on the list and let us know how their rookie year went compared to Patrick Queen.

I don't need to look it up, I watched it happen for many years, maybe your the guy that should look it up, I blew your nonsense up with one google look with Queen, why don't you go look at Barnetts coverage struggle year ONE, or Butkus, or Nitchke or Sam Huff, or Wagner etc.

your like the Bob McGinn of Packer- Huddle, contorting any stat line to win a point

I did look it up, that's the first post!! FFS

You watched every LB on the list and remember how they were as rookies? You are lying.

You didn't blow anything up. You looked up 1 $%@# player and you are even wrong in what you think you are reading.

You make a claim, you look it up and research it. Stop being lazy.

I am not "contorting" anything. You are the one making &%$@ up.

Can you even name the LBs on the list?

[BF004]

Just drop this worthless argument and talk about some of this nice research.

It is clear yoop will never concede a point, even against common sense, accolades, history, consensus, expert opinions, unsubjective raw data, statistics, and Harvard studies. So just let him think his thoughts, everyone else here agrees with reality.

But this is cool. I would love to make up a few tables on this, joinable together.

Could get RAS/combine numbers, ages, draft round/pick, then marry that with some AV numbers and NFL statistics, that could make for some fun dashboards or even private excel/google spreadsheets.

[BF004]

To take a perhaps less hostile approach to possibly clarify this before it turns into the usual hijacking of a thread for a pet topic.


No one is suggesting any position, LB or other, are coming in NFL ready in the prime of their careers. But these are the positions, that in the quickest time frames, have historically lead to snaps, quantifiable production, and post season accolades.

And really it's not a debate, those are the numbers, facts and figures.

[Pckfn23]

But this is cool. I would love to make up a few tables on this, joinable together.

Could get RAS/combine numbers, ages, draft round/pick, then marry that with some AV numbers and NFL statistics, that could make for some fun dashboards or even private excel/google spreadsheets.

I really want to do it match up Round drafted and UDFA with the guys on the list. It shouldn't be too hard.

[Yoop]

To take a perhaps less hostile approach to possibly clarify this before it turns into the usual hijacking of a thread for a pet topic.


No one is suggesting any position, LB or other, are coming in NFL ready in the prime of their careers. But these are the positions, that in the quickest time frames, have historically lead to snaps, quantifiable production, and post season accolades.

And really it's not a debate, those are the numbers, facts and figures.

It's the easiest position to hide a player, most of the top rookie lbers are at least fair against the run, my point is and has been that is not the case with coverage, now why would I change my mind about that, now obviously some do well at as rookies, but not the majority as 23 would lead us to believe.

so out of the couple hundred lbers drafted we get a short list of the best, and they weren't even that good in coverage as a rookie, WAFJ, lis, I blew his BS away with one google look.

I was wrong when I said ILB is a hard transition, what I should have said was coverage ILB is a hard transition