Round 1 - Pick #22, Quay Walker, ILB Georgia

[Waldo]

The Packers like to take rare athletes at premium positions in the first round. They got a rare athlete at a need position, but iLB isn't a premium position. So it hits a trend and misses a trend.

This is common talking head speak and seems to broadly agree with GB's draft patterns, however:

LB is like RB in that the difference between common and plus players is very small, and body types mean that common players are very available. However the position is in fact extremely valuable on the field, and there is a tier of player that transcends this reality about population dynamics.

A great RB can power an offense nearly as well as a great QB. Great RB's are extremely rare, only a handful come around per decade. Linebackers are the same way on the other side of the ball, a great LB can elevate a D far more than any other player. Like RB's, they are extremely rare.

If the team thinks he's one of those few times a decade prospects, well it absolutely is a premium position.

[YoHoChecko]

The Packers like to take rare athletes at premium positions in the first round. They got a rare athlete at a need position, but iLB isn't a premium position. So it hits a trend and misses a trend.

This is common talking head speak and seems to broadly agree with GB's draft patterns, however:

LB is like RB in that the difference between common and plus players is very small, and body types mean that common players are very available. However the position is in fact extremely valuable on the field, and there is a tier of player that transcends this reality about population dynamics.

A great RB can power an offense nearly as well as a great QB. Great RB's are extremely rare, only a handful come around per decade. Linebackers are the same way on the other side of the ball, a great LB can elevate a D far more than any other player. Like RB's, they are extremely rare.

If the team thinks he's one of those few times a decade prospects, well it absolutely is a premium position.

I agree with this 100%. I have often said the same thing about safety--a dime a dozen, but an elite one changes everything (and we took Savage, too)

But when you try to identify the elite ones and then count it as premium, you run the risk of being wrong and getting a guy that is a dime a dozen in the first, which is fine because it's not a *bust* but it does still go against the narrative of getting the rare athletes at premium positions. Positions where the players are a dime a dozen but an elite one changes everything are the types of positions I like to attack with volume (i.e. drafting RBs later, but frequently) rather than high-value picks. That's a preference for me. It's not the right way or wrong way, but it is what I am struggling with here. We bet a lot of draft capital that Quay Walker is more likely to be an elite ILB than Chad Muma or Troy Anderson or Leo Chenal--two of which are equally as athletically rare.

[YoHoChecko]

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NFC scout: “I trust this kid. He played inside off the ball. He’s big but he moves liken a smaller guy. He’s got good range. He’ll strike you. He’ll be a mike. He’ll be able to match guys athletically in coverage. People didn’t think he’d run as well as he did. It’s hard to find those ones that are that big still and can run like that … Maybe not Year 1 (run the show) but you can get him caught up to speed where he can be functional. I don’t hear anything that says he can’t.”

AFC scout: “He might be more of an outside backer in a 3-4. He’s not super instinctive and reactive as an off-the-line player, but once he sees it he can absolutely fly. He’s a height-weight-speed prospect with questionable instincts. He was a rotational kind of guy at Georgia. Is he a great player? I wouldn’t go that far. If he was there in the second round I’d say go ahead and do it. You’re not going to miss on the athlete or the height-weight-speed numbers. If you miss it would be his (instincts). He can’t be the green dot.”

NFC scout: “I didn’t see much there. All those other guys (at Georgia) go 100 miles an hour. He looks like he’s going about 60. Not a great athlete. Not very physical. Not very productive. He moved around to different spots. They used him (to cover) but I don’t think he’s very good. He’s very similar to Lorenzo Carter (Giants) who came out of there a few years ago (2018). Something’s missing with him.”

AFC scout: “He probably wouldn’t wear the green dot.”

AFC scout: “Really like him. He plays in a rotation but he has the traits to be a good starting player.”

AFC scout: “Good size and athletic. Best on a straight line. Good tackler. Lacks instincts in the run and the pass. It’d be a concern if he’s on the field full-time.”

AFC scout: “Very quiet and keeps to himself. Not a bad kid but poor communicator at times and emotional. Can be hard to deal with outside of football. Off-ball linebacker not completely natural to him. Able to learn the defense. Not a leader. Instincts slow him down some. Is at his best when he can just chase and hit.”

NFC scout: “I think they (his instincts) suck. But the guy can run. He’s going in the first round. In the 20’s, guys are going to take a shot on him. He’s a good kid. No instincts. No way (he can wear green dot).”

AFC scout: “Tested out well. He was more athlete than player. He was a defensive end out of high school. Big, athletic and fast. Has twitch and speed. Very good lateral pursuit speed. He’s physical taking on blocks. Needs to have a better blitz plan. He just kind of runs straight ahead. Reacted better to routes in front of him than in zone. I wasn’t sure how instinctive he is or what he’s seeing at times. Flashes a quick trigger but will take false steps or pause to read at times. Played on special teams but didn’t jump off the film. Second or third round. Too big and fast not to go on Day 2. He’s athletic and fast enough to play will. I don’t know if you’d want to have him as your mike. He’s the third of three (linebackers) from Georgia. He is an athlete.”

AFC scout: “Like him. He plays the run. Steps up and fills. He took people on more than (Nakobe) Dean whereas Dean was the guy out in space.”

AFC scout: “He’s green. Only started for one year. Can’t run the defense. He can play on all three downs. He’s big and tall and can run. He’s better than (Patrick) Queen.”

AFC scout: “He can run. Strong, good range. Solid vs. the run and the pass. Not a great blitzer. Could probably play all three spots. Second round.”

Worth noting: Bob McGinn wrote a whole separate article (which I didn't read but saw the headline) on which LBs in this class could be "the green dot" guys. So he asked the question specifically, which is why it comes up in all the answers... not that that makes those answers feel much better to us, haha.


Also, still wondering if the guy who said "he's better than Patrick Queen" meant it as a compliment or a backhanded compliment

[Yoop]

to me a 34 scheme revolves around the ability of the ILB's, and not having two that have range is imo why our defense has sucked for ages now, I know I've thought the 3 safety package was great simply because we had better pass coverage, but we really paid the price against the run, and to improve run stopping ability we had to sub in a run package, then we'd get stuck in no huddle and offenses would pass on us, being able to have two 3 dn ILB's will lesson that issue.

I think McGinn holds a grudge, I think he looks for team scouts that will be as critical as he often is, seriously when was the last time you read something from McGinn with a positive spin, or even simply a optimistic slant, the guy hates us, Ted cut him off, Gutty slammed the door, next thing he no longer writes for the Journal/ Sentinel, coincidence? maybe, or they got tired of his dillweed approach, and he bowed out graciously by retiring, didn't last Long, he's now joined Go Long ( good for him)

McGinn is basically a home town guy for me, he grew up in the town next to me, ( Which doesn't mean much I never met him), always loved his stuff, typically harsh grades and all, last 6 or 7 years have been steadily more contrite, maybe all the adoration has given him a fat head.

Walker, has no instincts, Walker is a slow thinker, not a green dot player, yet he's the 4th ranked rookie to get DROY award from I think it was SI ( not sure about that) point is there are some football minded people who think 180 from these scouts, people where more impressed with N Kobe Dean, when Walker was the work horse, we see how that turned out, this pick has Barry written all over it and he knows lbers, so I trust his judgement over those scouts McGinn rounded up

[Labrev]

If Burks can look like a competent linebacker in this defense as he did at times – and he can't even play the position – I think Walker and his plus athleticism will shine for us.

[BF004]

If Burks can look like a competent linebacker in this defense as he did at times – and he can't even play the position – I think Walker and his plus athleticism will shine for us.

Oren Burks is actually a super close comp for Walker. I’d Oren was more athletic, Quay is just a bit bigger.

[Drj820]

If Burks can look like a competent linebacker in this defense as he did at times – and he can't even play the position – I think Walker and his plus athleticism will shine for us.

i never saw this competence you speak of

[YoHoChecko]

If Burks can look like a competent linebacker in this defense as he did at times – and he can't even play the position – I think Walker and his plus athleticism will shine for us.

Oren Burks is actually a super close comp for Walker. I’d Oren was more athletic, Quay is just a bit bigger.

Rude.

[BF004]

Raw athleticism does not, a good linebacker, make.

[YoHoChecko]

Raw athleticism does not, a good linebacker, make.

I didn't say you were wrong! Just rude of you to point it out.

[BF004]

Raw athleticism does not, a good linebacker, make.

I didn't say you were wrong! Just rude of you to point it out.

Nor was I implying you said I was wrong.

I remember thinking/seeing that comp draft night, so wanted to double check.

[Drj820]

I’m pretty sure Gute fell in love with Oren because of his RAS score, because his college tape was never that great. It highlighted his weaknesses plenty.

I hope Gute doesn’t rely too much on that metric. I hope it’s married with the tape...

[NCF]

I’m pretty sure Gute fell in love with Oren because of his RAS score, because his college tape was never that great. It highlighted his weaknesses plenty.

I hope Gute doesn’t rely too much on that metric. I hope it’s married with the tape...

A lot was made about how intelligent Burks was and what an outstanding student and community member he was. That all seemed to translate beautifully, but the football smarts were a different animal.

[BF004]

I’m pretty sure Gute fell in love with Oren because of his RAS score, because his college tape was never that great. It highlighted his weaknesses plenty.

I hope Gute doesn’t rely too much on that metric. I hope it’s married with the tape...

I always kind of think of it the other way around.

Guys with elite athletic traits show in minute details on tape, well before athletic testing. Guys who have that explosive first step, lateral ability, simply will test better.

So kind of the chicken and egg thing. But they see Oren Burks with some elite traits on film they love and think they can mold him into a football player. Obviously not the only things they look for, but appears they value that athletic ability moreso than most teams, why we keep getting these types of guys.

Everyone always says their boards are fairly set by the end of the college year. So I don't think at all Gute is rearranging his board based of some Twitter guy's made up metric so late in the process he first has access to in March, if he even knows what an RAS is, but they look for those traits on the field.

[RingoCStarrQB]

The Packers like to take rare athletes at premium positions in the first round. They got a rare athlete at a need position, but iLB isn't a premium position. So it hits a trend and misses a trend.

This is common talking head speak and seems to broadly agree with GB's draft patterns, however:

LB is like RB in that the difference between common and plus players is very small, and body types mean that common players are very available. However the position is in fact extremely valuable on the field, and there is a tier of player that transcends this reality about population dynamics.

A great RB can power an offense nearly as well as a great QB. Great RB's are extremely rare, only a handful come around per decade. Linebackers are the same way on the other side of the ball, a great LB can elevate a D far more than any other player. Like RB's, they are extremely rare.

If the team thinks he's one of those few times a decade prospects, well it absolutely is a premium position.

I agree with this 100%. I have often said the same thing about safety--a dime a dozen, but an elite one changes everything (and we took Savage, too)

But when you try to identify the elite ones and then count it as premium, you run the risk of being wrong and getting a guy that is a dime a dozen in the first, which is fine because it's not a *bust* but it does still go against the narrative of getting the rare athletes at premium positions. Positions where the players are a dime a dozen but an elite one changes everything are the types of positions I like to attack with volume (i.e. drafting RBs later, but frequently) rather than high-value picks. That's a preference for me. It's not the right way or wrong way, but it is what I am struggling with here. We bet a lot of draft capital that Quay Walker is more likely to be an elite ILB than Chad Muma or Troy Anderson or Leo Chenal--two of which are equally as athletically rare.

Nitschke and Lambert come to mind.

[YoHoChecko]

Andy Herman loves Quay Walker