Packers Huddle

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 07:59

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 05:46

Jsn
Johnson
Hyatt

Tape they are clear top 3 for me.

Mingo feels like this year's mims for packers fans. Hate receivers who struggle to separate at college and have too many difficult catches.

I think you’re thinking of the other Packers fan favorite Rice. Mingo has his own problems (concentration drops, limited production), but can’t separate and too many contested catches aren’t them.

I like Mingo for what he can be at the next level (projection), how well he fits this offense specifically, and how irreplaceable his skill set is in this draft class. If you miss on Mingo, there’s no other 220 pound 4.46 player who can line up in the slot, backfield, TE, or out wide to select.

If you miss out on Hyatt there are literally three other guys who have shoe deep speed and catch point. Trey Palmer. Marvin Mims. Tyler Scott. Hyatt is a product of Tennessee’s offense. GPS on field in game timing showed that Mingo is actually faster (using an average of their 5 fastest recorded times).

Hyatt is the most overrated player in this class by a mile. He’s a deep threat only, no experience beating press coverage, needs to be schemed, is thin/weak. I just don’t understand why people are so convinced he’s special when both the 40 times and the GPS tracking show that his speed is completely run-of-the-mill fast guy, not rare or elite. And when his speed is his only major selling point.

He’s Tyquan Thornton but thinner. He’s Mecole Hardman but thinner. He’s Will Fuller but thinner.

These guys have a role for sure. They’re useful. But they’re not special or elite.

Top end speed is important but it is more about control and change of gears. Hyatt controls his speed better than anyone in the draft which is why he is the most open on tape.

Over 1400 yards 15 Tds in sec ... over 200 yards and 5 tds against bama.

Also all teams scheme for their number 1. Look at Jefferson.

Mingo is slow and plodding on tape.

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 17:13

Top end speed is important but it is more about control and change of gears. Hyatt controls his speed better than anyone in the draft which is why he is the most open on tape.

Over 1400 yards 15 Tds in sec ... over 200 yards and 5 tds against bama.

Also all teams scheme for their number 1. Look at Jefferson.

Mingo is slow and plodding on tape.

Ok, first of all, I don't think you've watched Mingo if you feel that way. He certainly isn't a top-flight start-stop accellerater, you're right, but he's more explosive and agile than, say, Treylon Burkes last year, who fit the same profile and was drafted in the early 2nd.

Second, Hyatt is open all the time because of Tennessee's offense and scheming him. He faced something like 18 press coverage snaps. You can't just scout the stats; you have to look at the traits and the play and see why/how he got those stats And Hyatt got his because he was running free in a wide open offense while specifically schemed to avoid the type of "tough coverage" you assume/imply he was facing.

Hyatt wasn't even their #1 until Tillman got injured. Tillman is a better all-around WR than Hyatt. I actually think Marvin Mims is better than Hyatt at the same things. You guys are all looking at Will Fuller and insisting he's Tyreek Hill.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 23:31

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 17:13

Top end speed is important but it is more about control and change of gears. Hyatt controls his speed better than anyone in the draft which is why he is the most open on tape.

Over 1400 yards 15 Tds in sec ... over 200 yards and 5 tds against bama.

Also all teams scheme for their number 1. Look at Jefferson.

Mingo is slow and plodding on tape.

Ok, first of all, I don't think you've watched Mingo if you feel that way. He certainly isn't a top-flight start-stop accellerater, you're right, but he's more explosive and agile than, say, Treylon Burkes last year, who fit the same profile and was drafted in the early 2nd.

Second, Hyatt is open all the time because of Tennessee's offense and scheming him. He faced something like 18 press coverage snaps. You can't just scout the stats; you have to look at the traits and the play and see why/how he got those stats And Hyatt got his because he was running free in a wide open offense while specifically schemed to avoid the type of "tough coverage" you assume/imply he was facing.

Hyatt wasn't even their #1 until Tillman got injured. Tillman is a better all-around WR than Hyatt. I actually think Marvin Mims is better than Hyatt at the same things. You guys are all looking at Will Fuller and insisting he's Tyreek Hill.

If you are saying they will have to scheme for hyatt but he will get you 1400 yards and 15 tds as a 1 - is that not good? The vikings have Jefferson all over the place to get him open.

Also I literally said his best trait which is his gear control. He blows by defenders because he knows how to change gears at the right time.

I guess we will see.

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 23:56

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 23:31

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 17:13

Top end speed is important but it is more about control and change of gears. Hyatt controls his speed better than anyone in the draft which is why he is the most open on tape.

Over 1400 yards 15 Tds in sec ... over 200 yards and 5 tds against bama.

Also all teams scheme for their number 1. Look at Jefferson.

Mingo is slow and plodding on tape.

Ok, first of all, I don't think you've watched Mingo if you feel that way. He certainly isn't a top-flight start-stop accellerater, you're right, but he's more explosive and agile than, say, Treylon Burkes last year, who fit the same profile and was drafted in the early 2nd.

Second, Hyatt is open all the time because of Tennessee's offense and scheming him. He faced something like 18 press coverage snaps. You can't just scout the stats; you have to look at the traits and the play and see why/how he got those stats And Hyatt got his because he was running free in a wide open offense while specifically schemed to avoid the type of "tough coverage" you assume/imply he was facing.

Hyatt wasn't even their #1 until Tillman got injured. Tillman is a better all-around WR than Hyatt. I actually think Marvin Mims is better than Hyatt at the same things. You guys are all looking at Will Fuller and insisting he's Tyreek Hill.

If you are saying they will have to scheme for hyatt but he will get you 1400 yards and 15 tds as a 1 - is that not good? The vikings have Jefferson all over the place to get him open.

Also I literally said his best trait which is his gear control. He blows by defenders because he knows how to change gears at the right time.

I guess we will see.

And Jaire shut down Jefferson completely, didn't he? That is the problem when the receiver does not have sufficient athletic ability and can't overpower the DB.

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 23:56

If you are saying they will have to scheme for hyatt but he will get you 1400 yards and 15 tds as a 1 - is that not good? The vikings have Jefferson all over the place to get him open.

Also I literally said his best trait which is his gear control. He blows by defenders because he knows how to change gears at the right time.

I guess we will see.

Please stop mentioning Jefferson. Jefferson is an excellent route runner at all levels of the field and from any position. They move him because he can do anything he is asked to do.

Hyatt literally ONLY does well on vertical routes. He is often wide open on those routes not because of his route-running, but because of the Tennessee spread offense. If you just had to look at a college WR's stats and say "well if we use him the same way, he'll get that for us in the pros" there wouldn't be scouts.

Knowing how to vary speed and stack DBs on vertical routes, and track the ball, are all legitimate, worthwhile skills in the NFL. But they're only useful in small numbers and unless/until Hyatt learns to win on his own with route-running ability at more than one level of the field, he's a part-time one-trick player, not a full-time NFL wide receiver. Mentioning Justin Jefferson (twice now) in relation to Hyatt is just silly season. The two players have nearly nothing in common on the field. If you're looking for Hyatt to do anything close to Jefferson in the NFL, you're going to be so so sorely disappointed.

I think his upside gets him to Brandon Cooks, but he's far more likely to be Will Fuller or Mecole Hardman. And his skill set is fairly common and decently replaceable. I don't see a top 50 pick value anywhere in there, particularly with BETTER version(s?) of him available in this very draft class

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

09 Apr 2023 07:44

bud fox wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 23:56

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

08 Apr 2023 23:31

Ok, first of all, I don't think you've watched Mingo if you feel that way. He certainly isn't a top-flight start-stop accellerater, you're right, but he's more explosive and agile than, say, Treylon Burkes last year, who fit the same profile and was drafted in the early 2nd.

Second, Hyatt is open all the time because of Tennessee's offense and scheming him. He faced something like 18 press coverage snaps. You can't just scout the stats; you have to look at the traits and the play and see why/how he got those stats And Hyatt got his because he was running free in a wide open offense while specifically schemed to avoid the type of "tough coverage" you assume/imply he was facing.

Hyatt wasn't even their #1 until Tillman got injured. Tillman is a better all-around WR than Hyatt. I actually think Marvin Mims is better than Hyatt at the same things. You guys are all looking at Will Fuller and insisting he's Tyreek Hill.

If you are saying they will have to scheme for hyatt but he will get you 1400 yards and 15 tds as a 1 - is that not good? The vikings have Jefferson all over the place to get him open.

Also I literally said his best trait which is his gear control. He blows by defenders because he knows how to change gears at the right time.

I guess we will see.

And Jaire shut down Jefferson completely, didn't he? That is the problem when the receiver does not have sufficient athletic ability and can't overpower the DB.

snip, my bad, sorry to extend that discussion Yoho

I refuse to let this thread devolve into a Jaire-Jefferson argument. I refuse it. Do not join in. Do not participate. Neither player has anything to do with this thread.

The only reason to bring up Justin Jefferson in this thread is to remind people that he would be the best WR in this draft class by a mile (or that JSN is the WR who has the most in common with Jefferson on film in this draft class).

The only reason to bring up Jaire in this thread is to remind people that he was MY GUY in the draft that year, so YoHo's Early Draft Thoughts are sometimes worthwhile.

Speaking of draft thoughts.

For some reason this year I find myself wanting all the prototypes on offense--big, fast, physical WRs; big Y-TEs with athleticism; nasty maulers on the OL with enough size to move people but enough athleticism to fit our scheme.

But on defense I want all the hybrids. Brooks and Adeboware--oversized athletic EDGEs who likely need a position switch in the NFL; Nolan Smith or Nick Hampton as EDGE/off-ball LB; CB-S conversion projects

There's consistency in that I'm looking to maximize the combination of size and athleticism, but also an inherent incongruency as one side of the ball is getting clear roles and the other side all sorts of positional questions. And ironically, MLF is much better suited to make use of hybrid player roles than Joe Barry seems to be.

One exception is that there are a ton of FB/TE athletic guys (and even a FB/EDGE) that I'm intrigued by in the late rounds this year. Colletto, Parrish, Luepke, Higgins... those guys I'm in on

Guys that need a position switch often need a year on the PS and this reduces their value to teams that need immediate help. Talent on the cheap. With no one expecting a SB this coming season, drafting a player to move him knowing he will need a year to learn a new position makes sense.

Sam Shields from college WR to CB. Tonyan from college WR to TE. Going back farther, Herb Adderley from RB to CB. More recently T. Carpenter from safety to ILB. Keisean Nixon wants to play slot WR, who knows?

Of course moving Ty Montgomery from WR to RB did not work out so well.

Another random thought:

I love Mingo, clearly. I called him my draft crush in this very thread a week or two before the combine.

But in the two months since he definitely has gone from intriguing sleeper to overrated draft favorite.

Ranked outside the top 100 in all lists I could find back then, from Brugler to McShay to Drafttek, whatever. He’s now verging on the top 50 in many mocks.

I think his sweet spot is around 75 where the value aligns with the risks and rewards, but I also like him enough to want him even if it sacrifices perceived value a little bit.

Just a wild turn events for one of my faves. Hate it when that happens.

Just feels like the right time to drop in and reiterate my Dalton Kincaid hate as a prospect.

Will be 24 as a rookie. Has a broken back. Doesn't block inside the numbers almost at all. And he's a 1-year wonder.

He's an old, slow, injured, big slot WR; not an athletic TE.

I'd put him on Day Three except he actually wouldn't even be on my draft board. Undraftable.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

12 Apr 2023 09:42

Just feels like the right time to drop in and reiterate my Dalton Kincaid hate as a prospect.

Will be 24 as a rookie. Has a broken back. Doesn't block inside the numbers almost at all. And he's a 1-year wonder.

He's an old, slow, injured, big slot WR; not an athletic TE.

I'd put him on Day Three except he actually wouldn't even be on my draft board. Undraftable.

I wouldnt put him day 3. I would say a 3rd round would be warranted but I definitely dont understand the love for him either. I cant get past the age or current injury either in the frist round. Let alone some people have him going in the teens. Thats absurd to me.

I dont think Kincaid or Mayer are 1st round picks. Theres nothing special about either of them as TEs. I like Washington and LaPorta much more than both of them. I would even take Musgrave over Kincaid. At least he has elite size and to my eye better speed.

Eh, Kincaid is fine. I am not "all about" him for us, but I don't see anything to really *hate* with him other than age.

I doubt we draft him. I think he goes Late 20s/early 30s, which is where I'd value him, and I think teams that use TEs less will value him more than we will. That said, I would be happy to have him.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

12 Apr 2023 09:42

He's an old, slow, injured, big slot WR; not an athletic TE.

I'd put him on Day Three except he actually wouldn't even be on my draft board. Undraftable.

Finley was slow and a poor blocker too, but nobody thinks back on his time with us and laments how little he brought as a blocker or as a true seam buster. We remember him as a guy who was hell for opposing teams to defend and a lot of fun for us to watch.

TEs that are pure 1-dimensional mismatch weapons bring a lot of value to a team. There simply aren't many DBs or LBs on other teams that are up to the task, and exploiting matchups is a huge part of the game. That is true even if they don't have great vertical speed (Finley did not). Yet scouts seem to be in agreement that Kincaid has enough juice to be a seam-buster too.

I would absolutely hate Kincaid at 15.

Labrev wrote: ↑

12 Apr 2023 11:02

Eh, Kincaid is fine. I am not "all about" him for us, but I don't see anything to really *hate* with him other than age.

I doubt we draft him. I think he goes Late 20s/early 30s, which is where I'd value him, and I think teams that use TEs less will value him more than we will. That said, I would be happy to have him.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

12 Apr 2023 09:42

He's an old, slow, injured, big slot WR; not an athletic TE.

I'd put him on Day Three except he actually wouldn't even be on my draft board. Undraftable.

Finley was slow and a poor blocker too, but nobody thinks back on his time with us and laments how little he brought as a blocker or as a true seam buster. We remember him as a guy who was hell for opposing teams to defend and a lot of fun for us to watch.

TEs that are pure 1-dimensional mismatch weapons bring a lot of value to a team. There simply aren't many DBs or LBs on other teams that are up to the task, and exploiting matchups is a huge part of the game. That is true even if they don't have great vertical speed (Finley did not). Yet scouts seem to be in agreement that Kincaid has enough juice to be a seam-buster too.

1. KIncaid
2. Mayer
3. Laporta
4. Washington

this is the order I've seen, some have Mayer and Laporta flipped, some only have KIncaid in round one, he may not have straight line speed but he has quicks, which translates to separation, imo he'll go first because of that ability

Starting to really like Bergeron in the 2nd as an alternative to Wright in the 1st

Guys Kincaid isn’t a poor blocker. He’s a NON-blocker. He’s not a TE, he’s old, and he has a BROKEN BACK.

I view Kincaid as a ball skills and point of catch updates from Lazard, not a guy who will meaningfully play TE in any way. And look at what this style of offense did to Gesicki’s usage. That’s what Kincaid would be for us.

Yeah. If you can't block as a TE, you are a no for me.

The value of a TE is you don't know what he will do. A non blocking TE is worthless because we know what he won't do (block). Just go get a freaking athletic Wide Receiver at that point.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

12 Apr 2023 12:32

Guys Kincaid isn’t a poor blocker. He’s a NON-blocker. He’s not a TE, he’s old, and he has a BROKEN BACK.

From what I understand, Dr. Watkins is a pretty big deal in the world of back surgeons. Just sayin'...

I don't get it. What's the difference "non-blocking" as opposed to poor blocking, did the guy say something indicating that he will refuse to execute blocking assignments for his pro team? Unless I am missing something, I highly doubt the guy is *not* going to block at the next level.

Neither am I seeing anything to indicate that his present back injury will be a long-term issue. I saw at least two reports claiming that he is passing teams' physicals. I get being like "players like X are bad value, ergo I hate X" but these takes range from hyperbolic to outright false.

Btw, he wasn't a one year wonder. He had two years above 800 receiving yards, one with over 500 (still pretty solid for a TE), one wiped by Covid, and his worst year was 300-odd yards... that was his first season as a college player, having played only one year of HS 'ball. 'Better than Musgrave's best season (barely 300, once), not far behind Washington's best (400-odd yards, once).

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

12 Apr 2023 12:32

And look at what this style of offense did to Gesicki’s usage. That’s what Kincaid would be for us.

That does not make him a bad prospect, it just means his value is comparably less for our team, and I admitted as much.

I looked up Gesicki's stats out of curiosity and before that offense was installed, he went above 700 yards in his two most recent seasons, almost 800 in the second of those, 5 and 6 TDs respectively. That's pretty respectable production at TE, especially with the lousy offense and QB play they had up to that point. Apart from that, you're not gonna feature your receiving TE in an offense with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle; lol it's just not gonna happen.