Cheese Curds - News Around The League 2023

[BF004]

Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th.

Honestly a bit surprised he fetched that much.

[YoHoChecko]

Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th.

Honestly a bit surprised he fetched that much.

This is year 3 for him, right? With one season lost to significant injury? I feel like every QB-friendly coach in the league would be into getting their hands on him--just needed a front office willing to give them the chance. There's still raw talent there; but a complete lack of experience and a lot of work to do on him.

I mean a 4th round pick is Jake Haener/Stetson Bennett territory.

[wallyuwl]

Are the Cowboys expecting a 3rd or 4th round comp pick?

[YoHoChecko]

Are the Cowboys expecting a 3rd or 4th round comp pick?

He's under contact for 2 more years (good bet they don't pick up that 5th-year option )

Dak has an INSANE cap hit next year (in the $60M range) and also has a $25M cap hit pushed into the following year, so they'll likely renegotiate but it's a rough 2025 dead money situation. It would cost the Cowboys like $2M extra to cut or trade Dak next year (like a $61M dead money hit to save a $59M cap number), so it doesn't make sense that they're looking in that direction.


So this is a long way to go about saying yeah, probably trading a 2024 4th with the hopes of a 2-year rehabilitation project and then getting a comp pick in 2025. But with the potential that they enhance him enough and quietly enough that they keep him on a 1-2 year low-level deal as the successor and/or bridge to move on from Dak after his contract expires?

Comp pick seems more likely.

[BF004]

Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th.

Honestly a bit surprised he fetched that much.

This is year 3 for him, right? With one season lost to significant injury? I feel like every QB-friendly coach in the league would be into getting their hands on him--just needed a front office willing to give them the chance. There's still raw talent there; but a complete lack of experience and a lot of work to do on him.

I mean a 4th round pick is Jake Haener/Stetson Bennett territory.

Or Bakhtiari or Tom or Sitton or Doubs.

Plus he costs like $12M next two years as well.

Guess I’d be upset if we traded for that.

[Yoop]

Lance to the Cowboys for a 4th.

Honestly a bit surprised he fetched that much.

This is year 3 for him, right? With one season lost to significant injury? I feel like every QB-friendly coach in the league would be into getting their hands on him--just needed a front office willing to give them the chance. There's still raw talent there; but a complete lack of experience and a lot of work to do on him.

I mean a 4th round pick is Jake Haener/Stetson Bennett territory.

Or Bakhtiari or Tom or Sitton or Doubs.

Plus he costs like $12M next two years as well.

Guess I’d be upset if we traded for that.

your thinking with hindsight of great 4th round picks, a 4th is chump change for Lance if Lance can become even a quality backup in a year.

Lance really didn't get a chance to groom up, I new someone would grab him up.

also the Shanahan offense is complicated, he dummied it down for Purdy last year, but just as with Lafleurs schemes, there is a lot of playbook to know, lots of motion, deception, and adjustments to make pre snap.

whatever happens with Lance I new someone would take him.

[Yoop]

Are the Cowboys expecting a 3rd or 4th round comp pick?

no one trades for a player to get a comp pick

why people feel that a player, specially a QB who struggles as a rookie or 2nd year will always struggle only need to look at all the QB's that flourished after changing teams or sitting a season or two longer.

[YoHoChecko]

Or Bakhtiari or Tom or Sitton or Doubs.

QBs have to be considered separately. They go earlier for their talent than any other position.

Getting Lance's raw talent for a 4th round pick with 2 years of contract control is better than drafting a 4th round QB. That's all I can say. Is it better than drafting another position? Who knows. Depends on the team/needs/what they think of Dak/contracts

But a 4th for Lance is not particularly high for me. I mean Josh Rosen got traded for a 3d after a year of looked awful in Arizona. QBs are different.

[BF004]

Guess I would really hate the idea of giving up a 4th and a high salary for a backup qb who you know is pretty bad (at least for now) in this same offense.

[BF004]

I know we got a long ways to go on knowing what Love is and isn’t.

I do know if this was his cut-up, we might be freaking out right now.



Terrible timing on his drops and hitches, bad balance, very inaccurate, doesn’t seem to feel the pressure or avoid hits he should be avoiding.

[YoHoChecko]

Yeah, the Justin Fields hype train this offseason has been really confusing to me.

It’s true that some elite QBs, like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen had big 3rd-year jumps after middling starts to their career and their numbers and play quality just took off

But far more QBs did NOT have those leaps in play quality. It seems like Bears fans mostly, but a decent number of national media voices, predicted the leap for Fields and are talking themselves into the idea that it’s already happened. Like he’s getting credit for a step up that hasn’t materialized yet and people are talking about him like he’s some sort of established player already. Very strange

[Yoop]

wow, you guys see so much more then I do concerning Fields, I saw one pass that was questionable, either the receiver ran the route wrong or the pass was poor, could be both, but the timing of his drops and ball placement seem fine other wise, same with running when the pass routes broke down.

[wallyuwl]

I know we got a long ways to go on knowing what Love is and isn’t.

I do know if this was his cut-up, we might be freaking out right now.



Terrible timing on his drops and hitches, bad balance, very inaccurate, doesn’t seem to feel the pressure or avoid hits he should be avoiding.

This is what Love would have been like had he started in 2021 or even last year to start the season. Love has come a long ways. Still has a long ways to go, but we know his floor is kind of Marcus Mariota, but don't know his ceiling.

I don't get the Fields hype all off-season. He showed some flashed the last month and a half last season, but it was going from terrible to OK. Now he seems to be back to terrible.

[paco]

wow, you guys see so much more then I do concerning Fields, I saw one pass that was questionable, either the receiver ran the route wrong or the pass was poor, could be both, but the timing of his drops and ball placement seem fine other wise, same with running when the pass routes broke down.

Its preseason, so who knows, but I saw a good bit of locking in on his first target. Late throw, poor decision, off target. Looks a bit rigid back there to me as well. But that's just from the 57 seconds there, I haven't watched anything else of his.

[BSA]

Its preseason, so who knows, but I saw a good bit of locking in on his first target. Late throw, poor decision, off target.

Sounds about right

and here's more commentary From Randy Mueller, former GM via The Athletic

"Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat: Year 1 (2021) was a lesson in futility and endurance because his skill set was not advanced in what was a terrible Bears season that cost decision-makers their jobs. Last season the Bears installed a more fitting system, with Fields’ strengths as an athlete accentuated and the passing game — which was quite elementary — at least fitting where Fields was as a player. The Bears threw the fewest passes of any team while rebuilding Fields’ confidence, leadership and overall persona as an NFL QB.

The key for me to judge progress with Fields for 2023 is, can he see and anticipate from the pocket and get the ball out on time? In order to advance the Bears passing game to an acceptable NFL level, much progress is needed. After two preseason games, (one in which he didn’t play), we have no more answers. The answers may be there (in practice), but in the first preseason game against the Titans, he threw bubbles, swing passes and screens — all of which get us nowhere in evaluating his progress.

I hear people talk of the numbers he put up in Week 1 — 3-for-3 for 129 yds and two TDs — but predetermined targets and throws of this nature don’t provide many insights. This offense has been void of any timing throws, adjust-to-coverage throws and advanced quarterbacking in general. In Year 3 Fields has to show that he can advance in all these areas.

I liked Fields coming out of Ohio State and still see the upside, but this passing game is still very much a work in progress."

[paco]

I have not (and never have) watched Hard Knocks. I assume this is what that's from. This is pretty funny. Still love Cobb.

[wallyuwl]

I liked Fields coming out of Ohio State and still see the upside, but this passing game is still very much a work in progress." [/i]

That is not good for a QB in year 3.

[YoHoChecko]

Cue the "these ae the kinds of moves the Packers would make if they were serious about winning" choir
(I do not agree with that choir)

[BSA]

league wide stats on EXPLOSIVE plays and their correlation to scoring- from Warren Sharp


"Average NFL starting field position is the 28.6-yard line. It’s been between a team’s own 28 and 29-yard line for over half a decade.
So right inside a team’s own 30-yard line. So, let’s start there. Any drive that begins inside a team’s own 30-yard line.

If that drive has zero explosive plays (defined as a play of 15+ yards):

3% of drives score points of any kind
5% of drives reach the red zone
0% of drives score a touchdown

But if that drive had exactly one play of 15+ yards:

50% of drives score points of any kind
36% of drives reach the red zone
25% of drives score a touchdown

These drives were over 10 times more likely to score a touchdown with just one play of 15+ yards.
Look at the score rates when a drive has one play of 15+ yards in five-year increments:

2000-2004: 39%
2005-2009: 41%
2010-2014: 42%
2015-2019: 48%
2020-2022: 52%

NFL Scoring Rates Over the Last Three Seasons:

Drives with zero explosive plays: 6.4% score rate
Drives with one explosive play: 52% score rate
Drives with two or more explosive plays: 83% score rate

Lots more in the link

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/a ... sive-2023/
.

[lupedafiasco]

Cue the "these ae the kinds of moves the Packers would make if they were serious about winning" choir
(I do not agree with that choir)

I wouldn’t trade for him now but in the past yes these are the types of moves the team should have been making when they were in the championship window.