2023 NFL Draft Discussion

[Labrev]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

[Yoop]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

you don't know any of this, your basing your opinion on a season where we really didn't have a #1 receiver, in fact it was a very mediocre group, and a very inconsistent OL, and a defense that failed to help out much.

you also can't reliably say that Love is the better option next year or that he ever will be, so why are you so quick to wish Rodgers gone? are you in the habit of making decisions based on a hope and a prayer? I know your not, and if we can trade Rodgers I'am willing to roll the dice, mostly because I'am tired of trying to be the rational guy in the room concerning JUST next season, imho, there is no certainty after that, even contract dollars have question marks attached.

[Crazylegs Starks]

I disagree. You got a HOF coach with maybe 2-3 years left, a playoff caliber roster, a boat load of draft picks.

I absolutely envision the scenario where he's not gunna be content watching those picks flourish in 3-5 years and ride off into the sunset with a whimper with Geno Smith.

But stats-wise Geno did a bit better than Rodgers this year. His completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, 1st downs, passer rating, and QBR were all better.

Let's be honest, Aaron has won the MVP 40% of the time he hasn't broken his collar bone the past 12 years. He is unequivocally, without a shout of a doubt, better than Geno Smith. It isn't even a conversation.

Well since we're being honest ... I'd take Rodgers 10/10 times over Geno. The likelihood of Rodgers meeting or exceeding his 2022 numbers is high, but for Geno it's low. I still wouldn't trade for an expensive, 40-year-old Rodgers if I was the Seattle GM though.

[Crazylegs Starks]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

you don't know any of this, your basing your opinion on a season where we really didn't have a #1 receiver, in fact it was a very mediocre group, and a very inconsistent OL, and a defense that failed to help out much.

you also can't reliably saw that Love is the better option next year or that he ever will be, so why are you so quick to wish Rodgers gone? are you in the habit of making decisions based on a hope and a prayer? I know your not, and if we can trade Rodgers I'am willing to roll the dice, mostly because I'am tired of trying to be the rational guy in the room concerning JUST next season, imho, there is no certainty after that.

I can't speak for @Labrev but:

Of course we don't know. We don't know how good Love can be. We also don't know if we'll get 2021 Mega-Rodgers or 2022 Rodgers-Lite. What we do know is that his huge contract means anything short of a ring is a total failure. Rodgers will be 40 come December. Just look at this list:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/oldest ... ayoff-game

It's pretty much just Tom Brady. History is not on the side of sticking with Rodgers.

[Labrev]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

you don't know any of this, your basing your opinion on a season where we really didn't have a #1 receiver, in fact it was a very mediocre group, and a very inconsistent OL, and a defense that failed to help out much.

It's not an opinion at all, actually, which tells me you didn't read what I actually wrote.

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact, because every year he gets *older* and (for that reason) he is not the same athlete as he was in years past, because physical skills diminish with age after your 30s, and do so with even more rapidity in your 40s (which is what he will be next year).

In other words...
It is LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE for him to be the same athlete as he was at any time previous, because with every passing second, you are aging (and he is *way* past the point where age leads to physical improvement).

And there is evidence of this already happening, in ways that have nothing to do with the quality of his cast. The fact that a lot of his long balls didn't have enough air under them to reach the intended target, that's not a receivers thing, it's not an OL thing unless he was hit as he threw (I am not talking about those passes), it's a (loss of) physical ability thing.

[Yoop]

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact

again you don't know this, quit acting as if you do, and he also doesn't need to be a MVP QB for us to win a SB, just maybe, the OL will be more consistent, just maybe these receivers will be more productive, who knows he might restructure his contract, you/ me, and everyone else in this forum are up in the air on all of this till we know more.

you and others aren't the first bunch of fans that wanted to move on from one great QB to the next expecting a smooth transition, there where plenty back in the Lombardi era ready to move on from Bart Starr, maybe I learned a little something about the grass being greener on the other side of the fence foolishness back then

[BF004]

Drafting should only be as fun as when you can get the haul of draft picks that you described above, BF004. If Guty can get that, he should instantly go to Packer Heaven, cuz ain’t nobody in their right minds gonna give that. But we can sure wish!
:-)

Is this better?

image.png (262.44 KiB) Viewed 596 times

[TheSkeptic]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

you don't know any of this, your basing your opinion on a season where we really didn't have a #1 receiver, in fact it was a very mediocre group, and a very inconsistent OL, and a defense that failed to help out much.

It's not an opinion at all, actually, which tells me you didn't read what I actually wrote.

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact, because every year he gets *older* and (for that reason) he is not the same athlete as he was in years past, because physical skills diminish with age after your 30s, and do so with even more rapidity in your 40s (which is what he will be next year).

In other words...
It is LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE for him to be the same athlete as he was at any time previous, because with every passing second, you are aging (and he is *way* past the point where age leads to physical improvement).

And there is evidence of this already happening, in ways that have nothing to do with the quality of his cast. The fact that a lot of his long balls didn't have enough air under them to reach the intended target, that's not a receivers thing, it's not an OL thing unless he was hit as he threw (I am not talking about those passes), it's a (loss of) physical ability thing.

Some athletes actually do get better as they age - for a while. They substitute increasing smarts and harder work for declining physical skills. IMO, Brady was such an athlete, and the smartest thing he ever did was to leave and take less money so that his new team could afford to improve the supporting cast. I just don't think that Rodgers is that kind of person though.

[Yoop]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

you don't know any of this, your basing your opinion on a season where we really didn't have a #1 receiver, in fact it was a very mediocre group, and a very inconsistent OL, and a defense that failed to help out much.

you also can't reliably saw that Love is the better option next year or that he ever will be, so why are you so quick to wish Rodgers gone? are you in the habit of making decisions based on a hope and a prayer? I know your not, and if we can trade Rodgers I'am willing to roll the dice, mostly because I'am tired of trying to be the rational guy in the room concerning JUST next season, imho, there is no certainty after that.

I can't speak for @Labrev but:

Of course we don't know. We don't know how good Love can be. We also don't know if we'll get 2021 Mega-Rodgers or 2022 Rodgers-Lite. What we do know is that his huge contract means anything short of a ring is a total failure. Rodgers will be 40 come December. Just look at this list:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/oldest ... ayoff-game

It's pretty much just Tom Brady. History is not on the side of sticking with Rodgers.

I think when it comes to Rodgers, stats are deceiving, other then not having a long distance bullet arm any more most everything else is still intact, he didn't go from delivering balls past double defenders to Adams and a few this season as well to being a over the hill was been as many think he is, give Rodgers some chemistry with receivers with some experience, some consistent pass protection and he's right back to being plenty good enough to win it all.

[Labrev]

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact

again you don't know this, quit acting as if you do, and he also doesn't need to be a MVP QB for us to win a SB, just maybe, the OL will be more consistent, just maybe these receivers will be more productive, who knows he might restructure his contract, you/ me, and everyone else in this forum are up in the air on all of this till we know more.

You're not hearing what I'm saying, yoop; you keep thinking I am saying that Rodgers will not play well or like an MVP ever again (I don't believe he will, but that's not my point).

What I am saying is, what Rodgers did in previous seasons (especially seasons that were several years ago) has no bearing on what Rodgers **will** do as a 40 year old man.

Rodgers's value to teams is what he is right now, as a 40 year old man, and what he can do for them in the future (which itself is based on where he is right now, as a 40 year old man).

maybe I learned a little something about the grass being greener on the other side of the fence foolishness back then

Seeing as you idealize other teams like they don't have roster holes similar to what we complain about, I wouldn't say so.

[williewasgreat]

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact

again you don't know this, quit acting as if you do, and he also doesn't need to be a MVP QB for us to win a SB, just maybe, the OL will be more consistent, just maybe these receivers will be more productive, who knows he might restructure his contract, you/ me, and everyone else in this forum are up in the air on all of this till we know more.

you and others aren't the first bunch of fans that wanted to move on from one great QB to the next expecting a smooth transition, there where plenty back in the Lombardi era ready to move on from Bart Starr, maybe I learned a little something about the grass being greener on the other side of the fence foolishness back then

Yoop,

I remember the last days of Bart Starr all too well. He was done! Nobody had to push him out the door. He had reached that point where he was physically unable to play at the same standard he had played at for years. It happens to everyone at some point. When you reach that point, you can't turn the clock back.

[Yoop]

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact

again you don't know this, quit acting as if you do, and he also doesn't need to be a MVP QB for us to win a SB, just maybe, the OL will be more consistent, just maybe these receivers will be more productive, who knows he might restructure his contract, you/ me, and everyone else in this forum are up in the air on all of this till we know more.

You're not hearing what I'm saying, yoop; you keep thinking I am saying that Rodgers will not play well or like an MVP ever again (I don't believe he will, but that's not my point).

What I am saying is, what Rodgers did in previous seasons (especially seasons that were several years ago) has no bearing on what Rodgers **will** do as a 40 year old man.

Rodgers's value to teams is what he is right now, as a 40 year old man, and what he can do for them in the future (which itself is based on where he is right now, as a 40 year old man).

maybe I learned a little something about the grass being greener on the other side of the fence foolishness back then

Seeing as you idealize other teams like they don't have roster holes similar to what we complain about, I wouldn't say so.

I'am trying to hear what your saying, but I'am 75 could you speak up a little and with more clarity

Rodgers play this year was tainted by a lot of out of his control circumstances, and everyone here knows that, and you want change so badly you'll try a a 3 yr old spotted turtle simply because he waddles differently

again I'd rather keep Rodgers, fix this OL issue, maybe add another impact player on offense and roll into another season, you and others want to start Love based on what? uncertainty and the hope that he's successful?

your supposing Rodgers play this last season was the beginning of his hitting a wall, thats a long stretch for me, it says if the line protected him better, if the receivers didn't lead the league in dropped passes, or if Rodgers took them out to supper more lol. he would have had just as bad a season, I don't agree about that, and I doubt the coaches or Guty do either, Rodgers imho gives us the best chance to win next year.

and please don't insult me with, " he won't be good enough to win us a owl" comment either, because no QB can do that with who this team was this season either, you build the best team possible every season, thats all you can really hope to do, all this change to hope for a better future, more money to build a better team sounds good, but it often doesn't add up to more success.

Idolize other teams, don't go there, wtf, I don't do that any more then you do, if anything I compare what other coaches do scheme wise compared to us, and the same with how they built there teams, we all do that.

[Yoop]

What I said, that every future Rodgers is a different Rodgers from the ones that won the MVP, is an undeniable fact

again you don't know this, quit acting as if you do, and he also doesn't need to be a MVP QB for us to win a SB, just maybe, the OL will be more consistent, just maybe these receivers will be more productive, who knows he might restructure his contract, you/ me, and everyone else in this forum are up in the air on all of this till we know more.

you and others aren't the first bunch of fans that wanted to move on from one great QB to the next expecting a smooth transition, there where plenty back in the Lombardi era ready to move on from Bart Starr, maybe I learned a little something about the grass being greener on the other side of the fence foolishness back then

Yoop,

I remember the last days of Bart Starr all too well. He was done! Nobody had to push him out the door. He had reached that point where he was physically unable to play at the same standard he had played at for years. It happens to everyone at some point. When you reach that point, you can't turn the clock back.

agree, but do you think Rodgers is as DONE as Bart was back then? I don't, and there where fans that thought Bart was washed up prior to those 2 SB years, just as now with Rodgers, imo fix the supporting cast up better and Rodgers still has the tools for this team to be competitive.

[Labrev]

and he also doesn't need to be a MVP QB for us to win a SB, just maybe, the OL will be more consistent, just maybe these receivers will be more productive, who knows he might restructure his contract, you and others aren't the first bunch of fans that wanted to move on from one great QB to the next expecting a smooth transition,

I never said I expected a smooth transition, I am just not driven by fear of the unknown.

By the way, holding onto Rodgers does not make a smooth transition after him *more* likely. All the risks and uncertainty that exist if we move on this year will also exist if we move on later.

If anything, holding onto Rodgers makes a smooth transition LESS likely....

(1) If we get rid of Love, which we will kind of have to if we keep Rodgers, then we will have no replacement plan in 2023 and likely have to use one of our high draft picks on one rather than something that will help Rodgers win this year, which takes away from your plan to win with Rodgers if we just get him more help.

... or we can forgo drafting a replacement QB and only pick guys who will help this year, and then draft a QB in 2024 who we will have to throw into action whether they're ready or not.

(2) We are less likely to find a good QB in the future if we pass up on the draft picks we are offered for Rodgers in a trade, because those draft picks can be used to find the QB (if Love is not the guy) while also keeping our existing draft picks which we can use to build a good supporting cast around the QB and ensure his success.

(3) We are less likely to find a good QB in the future if we have less money to spend due to the cap hits of keeping Rodgers's contract on the books; that money can be used to buy a new starting QB (if Love is not the guy) while also allowing us to resign good players on the roster to give the QB1 a good supporting cast

there where plenty back in the Lombardi era ready to move on from Bart Starr,

Yeah, and back in the Favre era, there were fans saying that moving on from Favre would go just like moving on from Starr. I don't care if you said that back then, you are saying it now, just with "Rodgers" instead of "Favre."

But you have no more reason to believe we will not have a good QB after Rodgers than someone who would insist the opposite. I said "someone" rather than "I" because I never insisted we will have a smooth transition.

[Labrev]

That's the irony of all this. If anything, the ones who want to move on from Rodgers actually appraise the risk involved way better than the ones who just want to hold onto him come hell or high-water.

[BF004]

The problem with the idea of Rodgers being MVP 40% of the time (clever stat btw) is... Time exists. We are not getting the same Rodgers in future years as the ones that won MVP. So it's not like we can just roll this dice and think, AR at QB = 40% chance of an MVP.

He may still have an MVP year in him (I doubt it tbh, best case is he's in the conversation again) if he finds another scenario with great talent, but 40%? Try 4%.

Just a point being, no way shape or form is Geno Smith better, not even in the same ball park.

One guy won and MVP 12 months ago, they other guy signed for less than Kevin King got 8 months ago.

Aging is real, not going to deny that, but 2023 looking, it still isn't close.

[BF004]

That's the irony of all this. If anything, the ones who want to move on from Rodgers actually appraise the risk involved way better than the ones who just want to hold onto him come hell or high-water.

For me, it comes down what can we do to realistically win a Super Bowl next year.

Given our unsigned contracts, our cap room, our draft picks. I frankly don't see a clear, plausible path. Need to pick up a DeVondre Campbell-esque scrap heap FA who turns all-pro, get borderline rookie of the years on both sides of the ball. Luck into health on the OL, luck into finding a competent kicker, hope for spontaneous organic growth on defense with our same lame DC, and hope for drastic improvement improvement and health from Watson and Doubs and big time rookie help (don't think we can afford Lazard or Tonyan).

I just don't think the odds of trying that are worth the downside. That big 2024 cap hit from Aaron, not even getting to see Love on his rookie contract. Basically having to pay Love like a starter, with no cap room, or start over at QB come 2024-2025.

Does seem to me like the path to most likely be competing again within the next 5 years is right the cap and accumulate some picks, and see what we need to do at QB, be it Love or taking another stab in a few years.

[Pckfn23]

That's the irony of all this. If anything, the ones who want to move on from Rodgers actually appraise the risk involved way better than the ones who just want to hold onto him come hell or high-water.

For me, it comes down what can we do to realistically win a Super Bowl next year.

Given our unsigned contracts, our cap room, our draft picks. I frankly don't see a clear, plausible path. Need to pick up a DeVondre Campbell-esque scrap heap FA who turns all-pro, get borderline rookie of the years on both sides of the ball. Luck into health on the OL, luck into finding a competent kicker, hope for spontaneous organic growth on defense with our same lame DC, and hope for drastic improvement improvement and health from Watson and Doubs and big time rookie help (don't think we can afford Lazard or Tonyan).

I just don't think the odds of trying that are worth the downside. That big 2024 cap hit from Aaron, not even getting to see Love on his rookie contract. Basically having to pay Love like a starter, with no cap room, or start over at QB come 2024-2025.

Does seem to me like the path to most likely be competing again within the next 5 years is right the cap and accumulate some picks, and see what we need to do at QB, be it Love or taking another stab in a few years.

100% where I am at as well. While Rodgers may give us the best chance to win more games in 2023, I don't think it is a plausible goal to get to the Super Bowl, regardless of the QB. It is time to look to the future.

[Yoop]

That's the irony of all this. If anything, the ones who want to move on from Rodgers actually appraise the risk involved way better than the ones who just want to hold onto him come hell or high-water.

bull, you have almost zero to go on concerning what Love will be able to do, and the knowledge that Rodgers is a hell of a lot better then what you saw him do last year, we know that Rodger physically only has a season or two left, but also that physical ability is only part of the requirements to be a good QB, point is that Love has more unanswered question concerning the future then Rodgers.

thats why imo Guty wants Rodgers back, but we'll see, imo GM's will do whatever they can to win one season at a time as long as most of the nucleus is intact, and ours is.

[Labrev]

Just a point being, no way shape or form is Geno Smith better, not even in the same ball park.

Aging is real, not going to deny that, but 2023 looking, it still isn't close.

No way, shape, or form where Smith is better. Huh.

I think one "way," "shape," or "form" in which a player could be objectively considered better than another:
superior statistical production.

Can Smith be better that way than Rodgers?? Hmm.....
https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/ ... yards/DESC

Well, will ya look at that. By almost every single passing metric this past season, Smith performed better than Rodgers! And here I was told there is no way, shape, or form he could be better.

One guy won and MVP 12 months ago, they other guy signed for less than Kevin King got 8 months ago.

How meaningless is that statement, considering the second guy ended up having more of a case to be named MVP this year than the first guy?

Smith enters 2023 the QB who was most recently better as a starter for a full season than Rodgers. "Isn't close," not even ball park...