2024 Draft Discussion

[Yoop]

So your alternative to prove that it is easy to get OL is to give Zach Tom as the example? Who just so happens to be the best or 2nd best OL draft pick since....David Bakhtiari?

OL is not easy to get right. The Packers are one of the best in the league to do it but even we can only really point to Tom and Jenkins as being successful picks in the last 9 years.

maybe because most picks are mid to late rounders, Jenkins was a hit as a 2nd rounder, Myers looked good as a rookie, and basically what we've looked for with ol is pass pro ability, in that we've usually been good enough, and ya don't need to draft high to get them, however to get one good at both run and pass blocking then the odds vastly improve picking high, even then they don't have to be top 5 in the league,

You do realize TT's and Gutey's knack of finding later round OL has enabled them to invest in other positions like WR?

If we had drafted OL with success rate of most teams, we would've had to invest waaaaay more high picks on especially OTs.

A QB who doesn't have 2.5 secs to throw, is never going to utilize your dream WR to his fullest.

I'am confused about the receivers, what receivers would that be Salmar? we didn't draft any with merit for 8 years ( MVS), we also have used high picks on OL, Sherod was a first round bust, Bulaga was a first round hit, Clifton was a high pick, Bakhtiari in memory is the only Mid round LT hit, Jenkins and Myers where high picks, and have been pretty good pass pro in the past

just look at all the high picks on defense over the years, we had the ability to both improve WR as well as get better OL, it's where ya devote draft picks and resources

[YoHoChecko]

Since we're likely going to be in the RB market, I found this primer on the guys at the position pretty useful. Athletic Paywall. So here it is for ya in full instead of highlights...

Is any running back in the 2024 NFL Draft class worthy of a Round 1 pick?

By Diante Lee
Nov 21, 2023

For a running back, there is a unique pressure that comes with having to make the bulk of your professional earnings off your rookie deal. Short of QB, no other position is subject to the same kind of NFL Draft scrutiny because it’s understood that you can, in theory, find long-term answers anywhere in the draft (or even after it).

At a time when the NFL’s market for running backs is more constricted than ever, the incoming class might have a hard time breaking through on draft weekend. There’s no surefire first-round talent this time around, like Bijan Robinson a year ago, and you can’t bank on a team aggressively seeking a running back, as the Detroit Lions did with Jahmyr Gibbs.

We’ve seen only one draft in NFL history (2014) when a back wasn’t picked in the top 50. But with the lack of attention drawn by this crop, there could be a repeat occurrence this April.

There are some viable prospects, though, so let’s look at some and profile their play style, productivity and current draft stock.

Tier 1 (Top-50 range): All-purpose backs
1. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State: Henderson is the most talented back in this class and the one name I’d confidently say should be in the top-50 conversation. Now that he’s healthy and available for Ohio State, he’s showing the kind of every-down skills and athletic ability we saw during his breakout freshman campaign.

He is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on his 118 attempts and has produced more than 1,000 yards of total offense, splitting time with Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams. Of the 129 FBS running backs with at least 100 carries, Henderson ranks eighth in expected points added (EPA) per rush, 11th in explosive rush rate (the percent of runs gaining 12-plus yards) and 14th in yards after contact per rush.

Henderson is listed at 212 pounds, but he looks closer to 225 at times, as he finishes runs with great power and consistently falls forward. His patience and contact balance make him valuable on traditional under-center runs or spread schemes, and he has enough burst to get to the third level of defenses. His best asset is his change of speed, which he uses along with his jump cuts to break pursuit angles. He’s a good enough pass protector and pass catcher to play on third downs, too.

He’s at the top of my position board, and he could be a quality starter early in his NFL career.

2. Jonathon Brooks, Texas: Brooks will be an interesting test case for the current state of affairs at this position. Before the ACL tear he suffered earlier this month, Brooks might have been just a stride behind Henderson. Now, it might make the most sense for him to return to school and try to ensure his 2025 draft stock is as high as possible.

Brooks doesn’t have the pop in his pads that Henderson does — he wins with a kind of smooth and slippery style reminiscent of Arian Foster. Through 10 games, he’d amassed 1,139 yards and 10 scores on the ground while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He operated as a bell cow back for Texas but still ranked top 50 in EPA, rushing success rate and yards after contact.

If he declares, I’d take that to mean he feels good about what he hears from draft evaluations.

3. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin: It feels wrong that we’ve watched Allen for three years now and he’s still only 19. Wisconsin’s profile as a legitimate Big Ten contender has taken a sizable dip during Allen’s college career, and that might have affected his perception nationwide, but there’s still big-time potential in this 6-foot-2, 240-pound bowling ball.

Allen is averaging just 1.6 yards before contact on his rushes this year, which ranks 92nd in the country. The Badgers’ new offensive scheme is supposed to create more seams in the defense, but the offensive line hasn’t generated enough movement for Allen to find the big runs of his freshman year. He has also been battling some lingering injuries all season.

Still, he’s averaging 5 yards per carry and ranks 26th in percentage of yards gained after contact and 23rd in success rate on his rushes. He’s been the main reason Wisconsin has had a viable running game this season, and it would make a lot of sense for him to make the leap to the NFL and maximize his earning potential in his 20s.

Tier 2 (picks 50-100): Outside zone runners and pass catchers
With so many NFL offenses existing between the Kyle Shanahan-inspired outside zone world when under center and the spread passing game from shotgun, teams need explosive-play potential in at least one of the backs in their rotation. Outside of the top three guys in this class — each of whom could be a legitimate star at the position — the following crop looks to be the most valuable.

4. Trey Benson, Florida State: Benson is my favorite of the guys meeting this criteria. He possesses an impressive combination of decisiveness between the tackles and shiftiness in the open field that changes the dynamic of a running game. In noting how much he hated leaving Benson off his recent top-50 draft board, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler made mention of Benson’s lighter workload, but the Florida State standout still ranks top 40 in rushing EPA per game, meaning he’s turning a limited number of carries into big-time offense.

I’d also expect Benson to run one of the best 40-yard dash times in this class.

5. Will Shipley, Clemson: Similar to Allen, Shipley might have a bit of an overexposure issue — he’s been a known commodity in college football since his freshman year in 2021. He hasn’t helped push beyond that with up-and-down production, but his speed and hands are still there.

6. Donovan Edwards, Michigan: The same conversation exists for Edwards, who just hasn’t produced the kind of splash plays as a runner or receiver that he did toward the end of the 2022 campaign. The athletic ability isn’t an issue for him or Shipley, but consistency is, and that might knock them out of top-100 consideration should they declare.

Tier 3 (Day 3 options): Outside looking in

7. Blake Corum, Michigan: The name (and ranking) here that likely will draw the most attention, but the eye test hasn’t shown Corum to have the same pop that existed before his 2022 knee injury. Corum has been an effective runner, especially in short-yardage situations and heavier personnel groupings, but his 7.2 percent explosive rush rate ranks 110th — and he’s playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country.

8. Bucky Irving, Oregon
9. Jase McClellan, Alabama
10. Kendall Milton, Georgia
11. MarShawn Lloyd, USC

Guys such as Irving and Lloyd benefit a great deal from their QBs, as they’re often able to run into lighter boxes and against smaller personnel groupings. They’re tough runners with adequate speed, so it’s not entirely fair to say they’re scheme-/situation-dependent players, but neither is reliable enough as a pass protector to be a third-down specialist. They’re also not the type of all-purpose backs who could lead the charge on early downs.

As for McClellan and Milton, two big-bodied backs who are built to punish defenses, their draft market likely will be restrained to teams that emphasize under-center, downhill-run schemes. On passing downs, they can be solid in protection, but an offense would be giving something away in terms of having a receiving threat out of the backfield. Both guys can likely hang around the league for multiple contracts, but expect them to find their homes late in the draft.

Benson feels like the right combination of talent and draft cost for my taste. But some intriguing options overall

[lupedafiasco]

I’m a huge fan of Bucky Irving so far. I think he’s the next Aaron Jones.

[Labrev]

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

[go pak go]

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

Just draft good players.

[lupedafiasco]

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

Just poor value to take Bowers. Hes going to be a great player but we just invested 2 high picks in TE and both look promising. On top of that taking TEs early usually backfires. Kyle Pitts is a beast but hes been in the league 3 years now and has just 4 total TDs. Kincaid is fine as a rookie but he has just 2 TDs as well and catching just 8.5 per reception. Hockenson is a good player but he was taken top 10 and was traded before the end of his rookie deal for pennies on the dollar. Noah Fant also was traded before the end of his rookie deal. Hayden Hurst has bounced all over the league. OJ Howard is out of the league. Njoku has never delivered value any different from TEs that go rounds later. Eric Ebron bounced around and was a bum. Tyler Eifert took forever to finally develop, had one great year, and injured himself out of the league.

TE is almost always a bad ROI in the first round.

As for the Bijan thing, we cant run because our line cant run block at all. Its got very little to do with the actual backs themselves. I loved Bijan and all he can do but again its a bad ROI considering you can get a RB anywhere and almost never want to keep them past their rookie contracts.

[Yoop]

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

who are the small minded fools? why come here and put others down because they didn't want to use a 1 on a RB when the two we had combined for over 2K last season, or 2500 yrds 2 years ago, put down the crack pipe.

and we just spent 2 high picks on TE's a position where it typically takes a year or 2 of development.

and the reason we are struggling to run the ball is do to lack of ability to run block, fix that.

I expect we'll improve the talent at RB, I also expect we wont draft or even bring in another TE

[Yoop]

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

Just poor value to take Bowers. Hes going to be a great player but we just invested 2 high picks in TE and both look promising. On top of that taking TEs early usually backfires. Kyle Pitts is a beast but hes been in the league 3 years now and has just 4 total TDs. Kincaid is fine as a rookie but he has just 2 TDs as well and catching just 8.5 per reception. Hockenson is a good player but he was taken top 10 and was traded before the end of his rookie deal for pennies on the dollar. Noah Fant also was traded before the end of his rookie deal. Hayden Hurst has bounced all over the league. OJ Howard is out of the league. Njoku has never delivered value any different from TEs that go rounds later. Eric Ebron bounced around and was a bum. Tyler Eifert took forever to finally develop, had one great year, and injured himself out of the league.

TE is almost always a bad ROI in the first round.

As for the Bijan thing, we cant run because our line cant run block at all. Its got very little to do with the actual backs themselves. I loved Bijan and all he can do but again its a bad ROI considering you can get a RB anywhere and almost never want to keep them past their rookie contracts.

smoke em if ya got em

[Labrev]

Yup, that was the response I expected: "position"-nonsense, "need"-nonsense, "history"-nonsense.

re: Need --

Never let good players keep you from drafting a great player.

There's plenty of picks in a draft to address "needs." There is more to drafting than plugging roster holes, though. Drafting only for need is what bad teams do; elite teams ascent their strengths and create position groups of dominance.

re: Position --

It's called using your imagination, having V I S I O N, seeing the possibilities, not seeing only what's in front of your face. You should try it sometime. You see an undeveloped plot of land not worth the money where I see the future construction site of a skyrise tower that will greatly return more than I put into it.

If you just see a TE (and see position in general as box to put players in, rather than seeing what talents the player in front of you actually has to offer), you don't get it. Yes, on paper, Bowers is a TE.

I am not drafting a TE, though, I am drafting a Weapon. MLF can use Bowers on quite literally any and every play on O, and wherever I get him the ball, he will make plays.

You can line him up wide; he can just as easily be out there as a boundary receiver as he can be a blocker on a screen pass. You can line him up in the slot; he can just as easily be running a route as he will be taking a jet sweep. I can line him up at FB or Pony Package, and he can just as easily be out there to lead-block (better than Dillon or Deguara would), go out to catch a pass (probably more dependable as a receiver than Aaron Jones is at this point), or hell even take handoffs (something we will never do with Deguara, Pearson, Musgrave, or Kraft). Hell, if I am feeling racy, I might even draw up some wildcat plays with him at QB.

And finally, yes, I can just use him as a plain old in-line TE, but as you can see, that's not the half of my vision with the pick.

He's basically like mechanized, electricized Taysom Hill, Kyle Juschyk, Spencer Havner, whoever you want... on steroids.


re: History --

As for the Bijan thing, we cant run because our line cant run block at all. Its got very little to do with the actual backs themselves. I loved Bijan and all he can do but again its a bad ROI considering you can get a RB anywhere and almost never want to keep them past their rookie contracts.

This is why I don't care about the "history" argument. Drafting is not about some passive calculation based on old info. It is an active, future-oriented process. You take a guy with an idea in mind of exactly how he fits into your team, what you will do with him, and ultimately put him in a position to produce in a way that will reward the pick.

We gave Jones a second contract against the history. It was the right call. Falcons drafted Robinson against the history. Also the right call, he's given them an element on offense without which they could not possibly have been this competitive with their lack of good QB play.

I don't care about all the times it didn't work. I care about what I am doing that will make it work.

[Labrev]

As an off-topic aside, but Bijan would have been just fine here, because doesn't need an OL that can "run block." You just get him in space and half the guys who try to tackle him miss because his movement skills are ridiculous. Aaron Jones similarly manages to produce behind this OL because he's special, albeit in a different way: for him, even the smallest crease at the LOS is a running lane. Special 'backs just make things happen.

[Yoop]

If you just see a TE (and see position in general as box to put players in, rather than seeing what talents the player in front of you actually has to offer), you don't get it. Yes, on paper, Bowers is a TE.

any team that just over loads one position is usually weak at another, if we wanted a move mostly TE we should have jumped up and gotten KIncaid last year, rather we wanted in line types which can help our run blocking.

I said the same stuff about KIncaid that your saying about Bowers, he's a weapon, I said the same thing about Pitts a few years back.

I don't remember you lobbying for Robinson last year, I think I do get it, you want to return the nfl to small ball, run run, holding penalty and punt, and while I like the % of pass to run the last few years, no way do I want more run to pass, just get a replacement for Jones in this draft class.

[lupedafiasco]

If you dont learn from history your are bound to repeat the same mistakes. Historically 1st round TEs dont develop any faster than those taken in rounds 2, 3, or 4. They dont offer any more impact than those drafted in the 2nd or 3rd.

[lupedafiasco]

Another thing Ill say that has changed in recent years with the CBA is you have got to take advantage of rookie contracts. To get borderline pro bowl play or better while only paying a few million is so vital to maintaining a cap. If you just have a player coming off the bench for 3 years and then in his 4th year he finally develops or you make opportunity for him you didnt maximize value. Im all for getting BPA but at some point you need to be getting value from the contract.

At that point all you did was the Rasul Douglas/Devondre Campbell equivalent where you found out you got a good player for one cheap year but now gotta pay them big. Its great having good players but its a complete roster game changer having great players that are cheap.

[Pckfn23]

Let's dig into that. Of the top 100 TEs by total receiving yards in their first 4 seasons, here is the breakdown by round drafted:
Round 1 - 35
Round 2 - 21
Round 3 - 18
Round 4 - 10
Round 5 - 5
Round 6 - 3
Round 7 - 4

If we exclude the rookie year and go with years 2-5:
Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 22
Round 3 - 15
Round 4 - 12
Round 5 - 7
Round 6 - 5
Round 7 - 5

If we got past 1st contract for years 5-8:
Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 19
Round 3 - 16
Round 4 - 10
Round 5 - 9
Round 6 - 6
Round 7 - 4

[BF004]

Let's dig into that. Of the top 100 TEs by total yards in their first 4 seasons, here is the breakdown by round drafted:
Round 1 - 35
Round 2 - 21
Round 3 - 18
Round 4 - 10
Round 5 - 5
Round 6 - 3
Round 7 - 4

If we exclude the rookie year and go with years 2-5:
Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 22
Round 3 - 15
Round 4 - 12
Round 5 - 7
Round 6 - 5
Round 7 - 5

If we got past 1st contract for years 5-8:
Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 19
Round 3 - 16
Round 4 - 10
Round 5 - 9
Round 6 - 6
Round 7 - 4

Curious how that curve would compare to WR and RBs.

[Labrev]

If you dont learn from history your are bound to repeat the same mistakes. Historically 1st round TEs dont develop any faster than those taken in rounds 2, 3, or 4. They dont offer any more impact than those drafted in the 2nd or 3rd.

History has shown that trends can be bucked, mainly because "history" is more than just what it appears at its surface.

Here's the real reason Round-1 TEs have a "bad" track record: it's a Luxury position. The TE position is Extra: extra blocker, extra receiver.

So the position does not do much for you if you don't have good bones. If we go through the examples case-by-case, we see that it's that either they only ever had dysfunction at QB (Pitts, Njoku), were good but going to waste on bad teams (Fant, Hock), or the usual risks of all draftees i.e. injury or inability (Eifert, Howard).

Nothing inherent to TE or R1. LaPorta was taken 1 pick away from Round 1. Am I supposed to believe he'd be a bust if taken higher?

But if a TE is a special talent *and* you do have good bones on your team, that "extra" that a TE brings can make your O really pop.

Our draft needs are, what? LT, RG, S, and like, CB3. None are pressing needs, all four could be solved by someone already on the team.

Bowers would be a luxury splurge in Round 1, but we can actually afford to make it. This team has good bones.

Let's draft a fun player for offense high for once! I mean, hasn't that been the gripe of half our fans for forever?

[Pckfn23]

Let's dig into that. Of the top 100 WRs by total receiving yards in their first 4 seasons, here is the breakdown by round drafted:
Round 1 - 47
Round 2 - 23
Round 3 - 11
Round 4 - 3
Round 5 - 3
Round 6 - 2
Round 7 - 2

If we exclude the rookie year and go with years 2-5:
Round 1 - 45
Round 2 - 24
Round 3 - 14
Round 4 - 3
Round 5 - 3
Round 6 - 1
Round 7 - 3

If we got past 1st contract for years 5-8:
Round 1 - 38
Round 2 - 21
Round 3 - 11
Round 4 - 7
Round 5 - 7
Round 6 - 3
Round 7 - 6

[mention]BF004[/mention]

[Pckfn23]

Let's dig into that. Of the top 100 RBs by total scrimmage yards in their first 4 seasons, here is the breakdown by round drafted:
Round 1 - 53
Round 2 - 23
Round 3 - 8
Round 4 - 2
Round 5 - 5
Round 6 - 3
Round 7 - 1

If we exclude the rookie year and go with years 2-5:
Round 1 - 48
Round 2 - 21
Round 3 - 12
Round 4 - 4
Round 5 - 3
Round 6 - 2
Round 7 - 3

If we got past 1st contract for years 5-8:
Round 1 - 46
Round 2 - 19
Round 3 - 11
Round 4 - 6
Round 5 - 3
Round 6 - 2
Round 7 - 1

[mention]BF004[/mention]

[Yoop]

I'am going with Labrev, draft Bowers, maybe take another swing later as well, go with 5 TE wide, and just bang Dillon and Jones, behind a wall of big bodies, turn Lovie into a purest RO QB to boot.

thing is we have to Lombardi style train these players to be robotic, no mistakes, no holding calls, false starts, any of that stuff, so obviously we'll need some under the table money for the refs who now control the score as much as the players it appears..

Back in the 60's teams new we where running, and teams had plenty of practice time to become robotic, maybe refs let the guys play more too, plus keeping players together longer built a deeper understanding of the ability of a position partner

my point is that that is so hard to duplicate in this era of limited padded practice, increased speed, which increases injury, so more substitution, so obviously the ability to block as a unit suffers, there just are not the hours available to build out many of the mistakes that occur with run blocking especially.

so what do coaches donate most of the practice to? obviously the stuff we do best, tossing the ball, we all know that for years we wanted agile and fast OL, guys that fit a zone blocking scheme for run blocking, yet still had good anchor in pass pro, and we've enjoyed some very good pass pro over the years, no doubt.
however we are seeing more and more gap blocking, pulling lineman now, outside stretch when Jones is healthy, being able to run sets us up for big chunk pass plays, It is so hard to stop a balanced offense, just rambling.

[Labrev]

As for Musgrave and Kraft... first of all, you do not have a proven commodity at a position from 1 year of promising play. Musgrave still needs a lot of refinement, and he has an injury history since before we drafted him. Kraft has only recently flashed good play in spurts, not with consistency. Players flame out all the time even after showing promise in Year 1.

Second, Bowers brings something different to the TE room. Kraft is a Y. Musgrave is too, but also more of a move-TE than Kraft. Bowers is more of a FB, Hback, move-TE hybrid 'tweener.

So you don't just play him like the other two. You play him like Taysom Hill or Kyle Juszczyk, which affords him a multitude of ways to see the field even without TE-heavy formations or an injury to Musgrave/Kraft. MLF is a Kubiak disciple though, so TEs see the field a lot regardless.

With that said, yes, the 1 problem with the pick is if you take him, he pans out, *and* the other two also pan out, then you have a glut of good TEs and likely can't afford to keep all of them. Barring an extension, two of them hit FA and one has a fifth-year option that has to be exercised all at the same time. Then you have decisions to make.

But at some level, that's also a pretty good problem to have. It will be nice to be that strong at TE for once.
BOTTOM LINE:

MLF can use Bowers on quite literally any and every play on O, and wherever you get him the ball, he will make plays.