Packers Huddle

salmar80 wrote: ↑

27 Nov 2023 12:03

Yoop wrote: ↑

27 Nov 2023 08:04

go pak go wrote: ↑

27 Nov 2023 07:40

So your alternative to prove that it is easy to get OL is to give Zach Tom as the example? Who just so happens to be the best or 2nd best OL draft pick since....David Bakhtiari?

OL is not easy to get right. The Packers are one of the best in the league to do it but even we can only really point to Tom and Jenkins as being successful picks in the last 9 years.

maybe because most picks are mid to late rounders, Jenkins was a hit as a 2nd rounder, Myers looked good as a rookie, and basically what we've looked for with ol is pass pro ability, in that we've usually been good enough, and ya don't need to draft high to get them, however to get one good at both run and pass blocking then the odds vastly improve picking high, even then they don't have to be top 5 in the league,

You do realize TT's and Gutey's knack of finding later round OL has enabled them to invest in other positions like WR?

If we had drafted OL with success rate of most teams, we would've had to invest waaaaay more high picks on especially OTs.

A QB who doesn't have 2.5 secs to throw, is never going to utilize your dream WR to his fullest.

Is any running back in the 2024 NFL Draft class worthy of a Round 1 pick?

By Diante Lee
Nov 21, 2023

For a running back, there is a unique pressure that comes with having to make the bulk of your professional earnings off your rookie deal. Short of QB, no other position is subject to the same kind of NFL Draft scrutiny because it’s understood that you can, in theory, find long-term answers anywhere in the draft (or even after it).

At a time when the NFL’s market for running backs is more constricted than ever, the incoming class might have a hard time breaking through on draft weekend. There’s no surefire first-round talent this time around, like Bijan Robinson a year ago, and you can’t bank on a team aggressively seeking a running back, as the Detroit Lions did with Jahmyr Gibbs.

We’ve seen only one draft in NFL history (2014) when a back wasn’t picked in the top 50. But with the lack of attention drawn by this crop, there could be a repeat occurrence this April.

There are some viable prospects, though, so let’s look at some and profile their play style, productivity and current draft stock.

Tier 1 (Top-50 range): All-purpose backs
1. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State: Henderson is the most talented back in this class and the one name I’d confidently say should be in the top-50 conversation. Now that he’s healthy and available for Ohio State, he’s showing the kind of every-down skills and athletic ability we saw during his breakout freshman campaign.

He is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on his 118 attempts and has produced more than 1,000 yards of total offense, splitting time with Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams. Of the 129 FBS running backs with at least 100 carries, Henderson ranks eighth in expected points added (EPA) per rush, 11th in explosive rush rate (the percent of runs gaining 12-plus yards) and 14th in yards after contact per rush.

Henderson is listed at 212 pounds, but he looks closer to 225 at times, as he finishes runs with great power and consistently falls forward. His patience and contact balance make him valuable on traditional under-center runs or spread schemes, and he has enough burst to get to the third level of defenses. His best asset is his change of speed, which he uses along with his jump cuts to break pursuit angles. He’s a good enough pass protector and pass catcher to play on third downs, too.

He’s at the top of my position board, and he could be a quality starter early in his NFL career.

2. Jonathon Brooks, Texas: Brooks will be an interesting test case for the current state of affairs at this position. Before the ACL tear he suffered earlier this month, Brooks might have been just a stride behind Henderson. Now, it might make the most sense for him to return to school and try to ensure his 2025 draft stock is as high as possible.

Brooks doesn’t have the pop in his pads that Henderson does — he wins with a kind of smooth and slippery style reminiscent of Arian Foster. Through 10 games, he’d amassed 1,139 yards and 10 scores on the ground while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He operated as a bell cow back for Texas but still ranked top 50 in EPA, rushing success rate and yards after contact.

If he declares, I’d take that to mean he feels good about what he hears from draft evaluations.

3. Braelon Allen, Wisconsin: It feels wrong that we’ve watched Allen for three years now and he’s still only 19. Wisconsin’s profile as a legitimate Big Ten contender has taken a sizable dip during Allen’s college career, and that might have affected his perception nationwide, but there’s still big-time potential in this 6-foot-2, 240-pound bowling ball.

Allen is averaging just 1.6 yards before contact on his rushes this year, which ranks 92nd in the country. The Badgers’ new offensive scheme is supposed to create more seams in the defense, but the offensive line hasn’t generated enough movement for Allen to find the big runs of his freshman year. He has also been battling some lingering injuries all season.

Still, he’s averaging 5 yards per carry and ranks 26th in percentage of yards gained after contact and 23rd in success rate on his rushes. He’s been the main reason Wisconsin has had a viable running game this season, and it would make a lot of sense for him to make the leap to the NFL and maximize his earning potential in his 20s.

Tier 2 (picks 50-100): Outside zone runners and pass catchers
With so many NFL offenses existing between the Kyle Shanahan-inspired outside zone world when under center and the spread passing game from shotgun, teams need explosive-play potential in at least one of the backs in their rotation. Outside of the top three guys in this class — each of whom could be a legitimate star at the position — the following crop looks to be the most valuable.

4. Trey Benson, Florida State: Benson is my favorite of the guys meeting this criteria. He possesses an impressive combination of decisiveness between the tackles and shiftiness in the open field that changes the dynamic of a running game. In noting how much he hated leaving Benson off his recent top-50 draft board, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler made mention of Benson’s lighter workload, but the Florida State standout still ranks top 40 in rushing EPA per game, meaning he’s turning a limited number of carries into big-time offense.

I’d also expect Benson to run one of the best 40-yard dash times in this class.

5. Will Shipley, Clemson: Similar to Allen, Shipley might have a bit of an overexposure issue — he’s been a known commodity in college football since his freshman year in 2021. He hasn’t helped push beyond that with up-and-down production, but his speed and hands are still there.

6. Donovan Edwards, Michigan: The same conversation exists for Edwards, who just hasn’t produced the kind of splash plays as a runner or receiver that he did toward the end of the 2022 campaign. The athletic ability isn’t an issue for him or Shipley, but consistency is, and that might knock them out of top-100 consideration should they declare.

Tier 3 (Day 3 options): Outside looking in

7. Blake Corum, Michigan: The name (and ranking) here that likely will draw the most attention, but the eye test hasn’t shown Corum to have the same pop that existed before his 2022 knee injury. Corum has been an effective runner, especially in short-yardage situations and heavier personnel groupings, but his 7.2 percent explosive rush rate ranks 110th — and he’s playing behind one of the better offensive lines in the country.

8. Bucky Irving, Oregon
9. Jase McClellan, Alabama
10. Kendall Milton, Georgia
11. MarShawn Lloyd, USC

Guys such as Irving and Lloyd benefit a great deal from their QBs, as they’re often able to run into lighter boxes and against smaller personnel groupings. They’re tough runners with adequate speed, so it’s not entirely fair to say they’re scheme-/situation-dependent players, but neither is reliable enough as a pass protector to be a third-down specialist. They’re also not the type of all-purpose backs who could lead the charge on early downs.

As for McClellan and Milton, two big-bodied backs who are built to punish defenses, their draft market likely will be restrained to teams that emphasize under-center, downhill-run schemes. On passing downs, they can be solid in protection, but an offense would be giving something away in terms of having a receiving threat out of the backfield. Both guys can likely hang around the league for multiple contracts, but expect them to find their homes late in the draft.

Labrev wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 09:32

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

Labrev wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 09:32

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

Labrev wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 09:32

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 11:18

Labrev wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 09:32

I am 'in' on Brock Bowers.

Now cue in some small-minded FOOLS reacting with "Tight-End?? NOOO!!!" Yeah, well they are wrong, for the same reason people here were wrong when they said taking Bijan Robinson would be stupid because we have Jones and Dillon (and now are crying that our offense does not have a running game).

Just poor value to take Bowers. Hes going to be a great player but we just invested 2 high picks in TE and both look promising. On top of that taking TEs early usually backfires. Kyle Pitts is a beast but hes been in the league 3 years now and has just 4 total TDs. Kincaid is fine as a rookie but he has just 2 TDs as well and catching just 8.5 per reception. Hockenson is a good player but he was taken top 10 and was traded before the end of his rookie deal for pennies on the dollar. Noah Fant also was traded before the end of his rookie deal. Hayden Hurst has bounced all over the league. OJ Howard is out of the league. Njoku has never delivered value any different from TEs that go rounds later. Eric Ebron bounced around and was a bum. Tyler Eifert took forever to finally develop, had one great year, and injured himself out of the league.

TE is almost always a bad ROI in the first round.

As for the Bijan thing, we cant run because our line cant run block at all. Its got very little to do with the actual backs themselves. I loved Bijan and all he can do but again its a bad ROI considering you can get a RB anywhere and almost never want to keep them past their rookie contracts.

As for the Bijan thing, we cant run because our line cant run block at all. Its got very little to do with the actual backs themselves. I loved Bijan and all he can do but again its a bad ROI considering you can get a RB anywhere and almost never want to keep them past their rookie contracts.

Labrev wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 12:50

If you just see a TE (and see position in general as box to put players in, rather than seeing what talents the player in front of you actually has to offer), you don't get it. Yes, on paper, Bowers is a TE.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 14:11

Let's dig into that. Of the top 100 TEs by total yards in their first 4 seasons, here is the breakdown by round drafted:
Round 1 - 35
Round 2 - 21
Round 3 - 18
Round 4 - 10
Round 5 - 5
Round 6 - 3
Round 7 - 4

If we exclude the rookie year and go with years 2-5:
Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 22
Round 3 - 15
Round 4 - 12
Round 5 - 7
Round 6 - 5
Round 7 - 5

If we got past 1st contract for years 5-8:
Round 1 - 31
Round 2 - 19
Round 3 - 16
Round 4 - 10
Round 5 - 9
Round 6 - 6
Round 7 - 4

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 13:52

If you dont learn from history your are bound to repeat the same mistakes. Historically 1st round TEs dont develop any faster than those taken in rounds 2, 3, or 4. They dont offer any more impact than those drafted in the 2nd or 3rd.

Labrev wrote: ↑

30 Nov 2023 12:50

MLF can use Bowers on quite literally any and every play on O, and wherever you get him the ball, he will make plays.