Taking a 7th round flier on a ball of rare athleticism clay in hopes that he can make use of those skills on special teams while they attempt to develop some role for him is a perfectly reasonable use of assets. I like using late round picks on either instinct guys with marginal (but not unacceptable) measurables but just know how to ball.... or lottery ticket athletes who haven't displayed much football IQ.
Each one is a rare pop but at that value, it's better to swing for some sort of elite trait and see if the rest can fill in than to worry about people who are more certain to make a roster or have a defined role out the gates.
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 24 Aug 2022 17:26
by Drj820
Apologies if this has already been discussed. I’ve been out of pocket some.
Yal see Bahk on mcafee?? Broke some news I would say. Says he had three surgery’s. One pre lions game, one before OTAs.
New guy did the third surgery.
“Feels better about this revamp than previous ramp ups”
What I consider news: returning to practice now is part of the plan. He feels good but it is still very much “wait and see” territory.
Also said the hike we all saw pics of on his honeymoon let him know he needed to go get his knee worked on. Said he knew it wasn’t right after that.
Pray for Bahk
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 24 Aug 2022 18:51
by Pckfn23
Here it is. I would suggest watching it as the tone and verbiage is not the same as it was portrayed.
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 24 Aug 2022 19:32
by YoHoChecko
That all sounds pretty positive for the right now, right? Am I missing something? Or is that how I'm supposed to feel?
That all sounds pretty positive for the right now, right? Am I missing something? Or is that how I'm supposed to feel?
This was the next step in the progression. Checking off steps on the checklist. Feels much better than it did a year ago. Ya, I would say it was overwhelming positive.
Here it is. I would suggest watching it as the tone and verbiage is not the same as it was portrayed.
How was it portrayed? I literally said what he said.
3 surgeries, knew it wasn’t right after a hike, this is the next step in the process, feels better than previous attempts at this stage, still a “wait and see”.
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 24 Aug 2022 20:28
by Pckfn23
"I think it was just the normal progression of the rehab, so... We're at a point now where it's time to integrate me back in. Get a helmet, some shoulder pads and start doing a lot more, uh, position specific. Get some bodies in front of me and, uh, I mean, let the next steps kind of, fall where they may." - This is a literal quote.
"Ya, no, so right we just started with individual, and, uh, just kind of seeing how everything responds, but, uh, all the stuff that we had done prior kind of left us with, well ok this is the, uh, the next point we gotta check off on our checklist to integrate me back into, you know, full contact and eventually playing in the games and all that." - This is a literal quote.
"This totally feels different than where I was last year at all. I'm like, oh, ok, this is actually what it's supposed to feel like." - This is a literal quote.
"Wait and see" - Never said. Used to portray uncertainty and negativity in how Bakhtiari views his progression.
"I think it was just the normal progression of the rehab, so... We're at a point now where it's time to integrate me back in. Get a helmet, some shoulder pads and start doing a lot more, uh, position specific. Get some bodies in front of me and, uh, I mean, let the next steps kind of, fall where they may." - This is a literal quote.
"This totally feels different than where I was last year at all. I'm like, oh, ok, this is actually what it's supposed to feel like." - This is a literal quote.
"Wait and see" - Never said.
whoa, your being serious right now arent you? Lol
I know you are just being yourself, but please dont accuse me of misrepresenting Bakh when I literally said in original post that he felt better than previous ramp up attempts.
Here are some other quotes from the interview, all found between 1:05 and 2:10 of the video:
"Get some bodies in front of me, and ugh, i mean, let the next steps kind of fall where they may"
You understand that literally means the exact same thing as "wait and see" right? hahah
Another Quote:
"right now we just started with individual, just ugh seeing how everything responds but ugh all the stuff we had done prior led us to okay this is the next thing on our check list....
"...feels good, still early , but i really like where im at.."
Choose your battles with me more wisely 23, this one has no merit.
"I think it was just the normal progression of the rehab, so... We're at a point now where it's time to integrate me back in. Get a helmet, some shoulder pads and start doing a lot more, uh, position specific. Get some bodies in front of me and, uh, I mean, let the next steps kind of, fall where they may." - This is a literal quote.
"This totally feels different than where I was last year at all. I'm like, oh, ok, this is actually what it's supposed to feel like." - This is a literal quote.
"Wait and see" - Never said.
whoa, your being serious right now arent you? Lol
I know you are just being yourself, but please dont accuse me of misrepresenting Bakh when I literally said in original post that he felt better than previous ramp up attempts.
Here are some other quotes from the interview, all found between 1:05 and 2:10 of the video:
"Get some bodies in front of me, and ugh, i mean, let the next steps kind of fall where they may"
You understand that literally means the exact same thing as "wait and see" right? hahah
Another Quote:
"right now we just started with individual, just ugh seeing how everything responds but ugh all the stuff we had done prior led us to okay this is the next thing on our check list....
"...feels good, still early , but i really like where im at.."
Choose your battles with me more wisely 23, this one has no merit.
"Wait and see" was in quotes, as in it was a actual quote, but in reality it was only your interpretation of what Bakhtiari said. What he said was not the "exact same thing" as "wait and see." You used that interpretation to cast doubt and negativity. What Bakhtiari actually said along with the interview as a whole portrays a progression that is very positive up to this point and coming off the PUP is the next step in the checklist that leads to getting on the field.
I was not the only one to see the attempt at incorrectly casting a negative light on it.
"I think it was just the normal progression of the rehab, so... We're at a point now where it's time to integrate me back in. Get a helmet, some shoulder pads and start doing a lot more, uh, position specific. Get some bodies in front of me and, uh, I mean, let the next steps kind of, fall where they may." - This is a literal quote.
"This totally feels different than where I was last year at all. I'm like, oh, ok, this is actually what it's supposed to feel like." - This is a literal quote.
"Wait and see" - Never said.
whoa, your being serious right now arent you? Lol
I know you are just being yourself, but please dont accuse me of misrepresenting Bakh when I literally said in original post that he felt better than previous ramp up attempts.
Here are some other quotes from the interview, all found between 1:05 and 2:10 of the video:
"Get some bodies in front of me, and ugh, i mean, let the next steps kind of fall where they may"
You understand that literally means the exact same thing as "wait and see" right? hahah
Another Quote:
"right now we just started with individual, just ugh seeing how everything responds but ugh all the stuff we had done prior led us to okay this is the next thing on our check list....
"...feels good, still early , but i really like where im at.."
Choose your battles with me more wisely 23, this one has no merit.
"Wait and see" was in quotes, as in it was a actual quote, but in reality it was only your interpretation of what Bakhtiari said. What he said was not the "exact same thing" as "wait and see." You used that interpretation to cast doubt and negativity. What Bakhtiari actually said along with the interview as a whole portrays a progression that is very positive up to this point and coming off the PUP is the next step in the checklist that leads to getting on the field.
I was not the only one to see the attempt at incorrectly casting a negative light on it.
Here it is. I would suggest watching it as the tone and verbiage is not the same as it was portrayed.
Nice to see some Packers drama shifted to Bakh. Pleasantly refreshing........particularly now that Blu Earth is out of the limelight. At least for now.
I know you are just being yourself, but please dont accuse me of misrepresenting Bakh when I literally said in original post that he felt better than previous ramp up attempts.
Here are some other quotes from the interview, all found between 1:05 and 2:10 of the video:
"Get some bodies in front of me, and ugh, i mean, let the next steps kind of fall where they may"
You understand that literally means the exact same thing as "wait and see" right? hahah
Another Quote:
"right now we just started with individual, just ugh seeing how everything responds but ugh all the stuff we had done prior led us to okay this is the next thing on our check list....
"...feels good, still early , but i really like where im at.."
Choose your battles with me more wisely 23, this one has no merit.
"Wait and see" was in quotes, as in it was a actual quote, but in reality it was only your interpretation of what Bakhtiari said. What he said was not the "exact same thing" as "wait and see." You used that interpretation to cast doubt and negativity. What Bakhtiari actually said along with the interview as a whole portrays a progression that is very positive up to this point and coming off the PUP is the next step in the checklist that leads to getting on the field.
I was not the only one to see the attempt at incorrectly casting a negative light on it.
clown alert ^^^
I am sorry, did my calling out your inaccurate portrayal of the interview, offend you in some way? If it does, be accurate next time.
The ENTIRE theme of their conversation was next steps, progression, process, steps to getting back in the game, NOT this WAIT and see garbage. It was about the work that Bakhtiari is putting in and how it has gone in a positive direction since the start of training camp which allowed him to get off the PUP.
Honestly the best part of the entire thing was him ribbing Aaron Rodgers.
That all sounds pretty positive for the right now, right? Am I missing something? Or is that how I'm supposed to feel?
im glad you noticed my reporting was mostly pretty positive. Thanks.
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 24 Aug 2022 22:06
by wallyuwl
#PMSLive
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 25 Aug 2022 11:11
by YoHoChecko
Bill Barnwell at ESPN does an annual column based on his old work at Football Outsiders predicting which teams are most likely to regress from one year to the next. The evaluations are numerical, mathematical, formulaic; the editorial judgments are then added/layered on top to explain the reasoning. Key aspects are things like pythagorean wins, which predicts how many games a team would win/lose against an average NFL schedule given their real life point differential. Close game outcomes, injury luck, and turnover differential, which are less likely to be repeated from year to year, also are factors.
For the third year in a row, the numbers ped the Packers as a team likely to decline. The description Barnwell gives is one of the more delightful reads I've had as a Packers fan in a little while:
Packers fans have even more of a reason to be angry! After going 13-3 with a 9.6-win point differential in 2019, Green Bay made the list of teams likely to decline. It maintained a 13-3 record again in 2020 by improving its game-by-game performance and getting an unexpected MVP season from Aaron Rodgers, although the Packers still outperformed their expected win total. Back on this list for a second consecutive season, they went ... 13-4, declining by only a half-game after sitting their stars during a Week 18 loss to the Lions. Rodgers won his second straight MVP award, and it sent me back to the drawing board.
Now, the Packers are back. Some of the factors we saw as problems a year ago played out as expected ... and they just didn't matter. Rodgers & Co. went from being the best red zone offense in recent league history to finishing 19th in points per red zone trip. Didn't matter. Injured stars David Bakhtiari and Za'Darius Smith combined to play two games. Didn't matter. Rodgers wasn't quite as good as he had been during his MVP season in 2021. Didn't matter. He still won it anyway.
How did the Packers pull it off? Let's start with the obvious: They've done an excellent job of roster-building over the past few seasons, with 2021 as the ultimate feather in general manager Brian Gutekunst's cap. With Smith basically out for the year, 2019 first-rounder Rashan Gary stepped into the lineup and played like a superstar. The offensive line mixed and matched players throughout the season. Free agent additions De'vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas, who had been ordinary everywhere else as pros, looked like stars in Green Bay. Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur deserve accolades for their work, even if it hasn't yet resulted in a Super Bowl appearance.
Were they lucky in one-score games? A little, but not so much that it explains the difference between their win total (13.0) and their expected mark (10.4). They went 5-3 in games decided by seven points or fewer.
This included a game against the 49ers in which San Francisco mismanaged the clock, scored with 37 seconds left and left the Packers just enough time to drive for a game-winning field goal. Against the Cardinals, they were stuffed on a four-play series starting at the 1-yard line up three points and saw Arizona drive the length of the field, only for wideout A.J. Green to fail to turn around for a pass in the end zone that was then picked off by Douglas. They had to survive two missed field goals from Evan McPherson in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Bengals, though Mason Crosby missed three of his own during the same time frame.
There's not really a formula or a killer instinct here to serve as a through line for these games. It's also worth noting that despite the Packers' 14-6 record in one-score games during the regular season over the past three seasons, they are 1-2 in those same games during the postseason, having lost tight ones to the Buccaneers and 49ers over the past two seasons.
Rodgers also didn't have a spectacular track record in one-score games or against the expected win model before 2019. Before LaFleur arrived, his record as a starting quarterback was 100-57-1, which we'll count as 100.5 victories. Using those starts in the expected win model, we would have expected him and the Packers to win ... 100.7 games.
Over the past three years, Green Bay has won 39 games. The Pythagorean model we use would have expected it to win 31 games. The Packers have an advantage over teams from the past by virtue of playing a 17th game last season, but has anyone in recent memory exceeded expectations quite as much as they have over a three-season span?
The answer is no. Since 1989, no team is really all that close to an eight-win gap between expectation and reality. The next closest comparable team is the 2012-14 Colts, who won 33 games against an expectation of 26.7 wins. The following season, they declined but still managed to keep surpassing their totals; they went 8-8 with a 6.1-win Pythagorean expectation. It wasn't until 2016 that they got back in line with the rest of the universe.
Does this hold for all the other rule breakers? Not really. Let's take the 36 teams from 1989 to 2019 that exceeded their expected win total by at least four wins over a three-year span. Those teams exceeded their expected win total by an average of 1.5 wins per season during their first three seasons in the study. In Year 4, they exceeded their expectation by an average of 0.2 wins, placing them right back around league-average.
If you're skeptical the Packers will fall in line, I don't blame you. Most teams turn the ball over more than 13 times in a season, but the Packers have been at 13 or below each of the past three years. When their stars miss time, they manage to coax star seasons out of previously underwhelming players. They find ways to win, even against a first-place schedule. They lost multiple coaches from their staff to jobs elsewhere this offseason and will probably turn an intern, a tackling dummy and a block of cheese into hot head-coaching candidates next offseason.
I'm trusting the numbers because I'm willing to get hurt again. The Packers will be very good again in 2022, but like I said a year ago, I would expect very good to look more like 11-6 than 13-4. I don't expect many readers will want to accompany me on that journey, and I wouldn't blame you for feeling that way. When Rodgers wins his third consecutive MVP award, I'll take personal responsibility.
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 25 Aug 2022 11:12
by Pckfn23
I read that and enjoyed it as well. It was fun because basically he says the Packers are still really good, but at some point they have to regress to the mean!
I read that and enjoyed it as well. It was fun because basically he says the Packers are still really good, but at some point they have to regress to the mean!
Yeah, that AND sort of throwing his arms up and saying "the Packers are consistently over-performing expectations and I don't have the numbers to make sense of it. Maybe they'll do it again!"
Re: Green Bay Packers News 2022
Posted: 25 Aug 2022 13:57
by NCF
Bak and Jaire fought injuries and that sometimes means out of sight, out of mind. Rashan Gary just had his breakout, but sometimes people want to see more. WTF is the NFL missing on Kenny Clark, though?
Bak and Jaire fought injuries and that sometimes means out of sight, out of mind. Rashan Gary just had his breakout, but sometimes people want to see more. WTF is the NFL missing on Kenny Clark, though?
I think NCF and Eli might want to read that tweet a second time maybe.
Bak and Jaire fought injuries and that sometimes means out of sight, out of mind. Rashan Gary just had his breakout, but sometimes people want to see more. WTF is the NFL missing on Kenny Clark, though?
I think NCF and Eli might want to read that tweet a second time maybe.
