Packers Huddle

Don’t LOVE the methodology, but it is based on GPS data on the field over the past season and a half rather than combine and pro day measurables, so that’s good.

Anyway…

NCF wrote: ↑

26 Oct 2021 13:11

Wow, that McVay coaching tree killing it with Zac Taylor and MLF

paco wrote: ↑

26 Oct 2021 17:23

So these are the dirty bastards that brought Covid up in here.

For those that listen on the radio.

paco wrote: ↑

27 Oct 2021 14:30

For those that listen on the radio.

This actually might not be bad. Sometimes WTMJ onlline doesn't work well (and doesn't work with mobile). I just want easier access to always be able to get the game no matter where I am at.

Good, finally going to national streaming of the game. If WTMJ wasn't willing to do that, they deserve to lose it.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

27 Oct 2021 15:05

Good, finally going to national streaming of the game. If WTMJ wasn't willing to do that, they deserve to lose it.

They do. You just have to listen online and can only do it via computer.

Another stock sale is likely imminent / on the horizon. I guess the NFL said Go Pack Go.

go pak go wrote: ↑

27 Oct 2021 15:51

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

27 Oct 2021 15:05

Good, finally going to national streaming of the game. If WTMJ wasn't willing to do that, they deserve to lose it.

They do. You just have to listen online and can only do it via computer.

Ya, that's ridiculous. Get with the times!

Tracking the Football Outsiders' Playoff odds week to week, it's fun to see the little changes in seeding percentages and mean wins. Tonight's results are the first in a while where I anticipate a fairly big shift around seeding. Should be interesting! (reminder: FO translates their DVOA team rankings to head-to-head odds in each game and then runs 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season based on those odds in order to calculate their odds)

Wow.

That's crazy actually that the probability of a 1 seed is that low. If you were to just take a "1 in 16 chance", we would be at 6.25%.

So only slightly higher than even chance.

After tonight here are our matchups with records:
@KC 3-4
SEA 2-5
@MIN 3-3
LAR 6-1
CHI 3-4
@BAL 5-2
CLE 4-3
MIN 3-3
@DET 0-7

I could easily see 7-2 out of that schedule. It is going to be a tough road tonight, so a final standing of 13-4 would not shock me in the least.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 09:50

After tonight here are our matchups with records:
@KC 3-4
SEA 2-5
@MIN 3-3
LAR 6-1
CHI 3-4
@BAL 5-2
CLE 4-3
MIN 3-3
@DET 0-7

I could easily see 7-2 out of that schedule. It is going to be a tough road tonight, so a final standing of 13-4 would not shock me in the least.

They showed on NFL Network this morning that through 39 games, MLF is tied for 3rd all-time in winning percentage... another 13-win season would be wild.

go pak go wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 08:25

Wow.

That's crazy actually that the probability of a 1 seed is that low. If you were to just take a "1 in 16 chance", we would be at 6.25%.

So only slightly higher than even chance.

It's interesting because the way they do their weighting early in the season puts a lot of stock in the preseason evaluation (hence the high week 0) and then reduces the impact of those expectations little by little each week. I think by week 8 they're gone.

But they also do some weighting of individual games based on how recent they are, so as the high expectations of preseason are reduced, the low expectations from week one also get reduced, which I think is why the #1 seed has remained fairly unchanged in recent weeks despite a string of wins... also probably because we played some garbage teams that the simulations generally expected us to mostly beat anyway.

I always try to do this week by week every year but inevitably I forget to copy a week's results early in the season (and again later--a lot like my pick-6 and confidence picks) and lose that thread. This season I am keeping up--having JUST remembered to copy it before tonight's game. Phew.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 10:27

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 09:50

After tonight here are our matchups with records:
@KC 3-4
SEA 2-5
@MIN 3-3
LAR 6-1
CHI 3-4
@BAL 5-2
CLE 4-3
MIN 3-3
@DET 0-7

I could easily see 7-2 out of that schedule. It is going to be a tough road tonight, so a final standing of 13-4 would not shock me in the least.

They showed on NFL Network this morning that through 39 games, MLF is tied for 3rd all-time in winning percentage... another 13-win season would be wild.

Guess it depends on how you count ties, but even factoring in having AR, LaFleur has been nuts.
_

salmar80 wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 11:02

Guess it depends on how you count ties, but even factoring in having AR, LaFleur has been nuts.

And depends on how you count W/L records in the 1920's and guys who have coached a grand total of 2 games or less.

George Seifert was 33-7 in his first 40 total games. 32-8 in the regular season only.

LaFleur was 31-9. If we win tonight, LaFleur will be 33-7.

NCF wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 11:08

salmar80 wrote: ↑

28 Oct 2021 11:02

Guess it depends on how you count ties, but even factoring in having AR, LaFleur has been nuts.

And depends on how you count W/L records in the 1920's and guys who have coached a grand total of 2 games or less.

PFR's "official" list consists of coaches with 50+ regular season games under their belt. LaFleur will reach that in the first game of next season, and has a chance to enter at the top it. Needs 8 wins in 11 regular season games to do that.