Got to thinking: Imagine the possibility of trading your draft picks for another team's cap space. How high of a draft pick would you sell for 38M of cap space?
High 1st rounder? Low 1st? Would a 2nd round pick be worth over 35M?
Just wondering because that would be a thing in a Rodgers trade.
As a reference point, the Browns and Texans I think made a trade involving a QB that amounted to a second round pick for $16 million in cap space a few years back. The analytics crowd felt that was a poor use of a second round pick because of the value of a second round pick being more than $16 million, not because the theory was bad.
Are you suggesting that we will or should accept less in compensation because we also are clearing $38 million in cap space over a 2-year period by moving him? That's an interesting thought but one I initially don't love.
No, the other way around.
The Packers would eat a massive 38M cap hit if they traded AR, which benefits the team trading for AR immensely -> GB should be compensated for that in the trade.
That same 38M is why we couldn't afford to splurge in UFA, but the team trading for AR would be able to. With GB eating that cap hit for them, they'd be free to extend/restructure AR's deal in a way that has an extremely low 2021 and 2022 cap hits. That equates to about 38M worth of UFAs they can sign.
In other words, how much a 38M UFA haul is worth in draft picks?
Re: Rodgers wants out
Posted: 28 May 2021 11:36
by YoHoChecko
I agree that we can get "more" in a trade now than we can next year, but as I've already pointed out a top-10 pick in 2022 is worth significantly more than a 25th pick in 2022 and a mid first-round pick in 2023. You couldn't trade the 25th pick and a future #1 for the 8th pick in the draft. The Bears, for instance moved from 20 to 12 and it cost them a future first, a current 5th, and a future 4th.
So yeah, we can trade him now for two 1sts and a young player of starting caliber. But if we can trade him next year for a single first--but in the top ten--and a starting caliber player, we have actually come out ahead, even though his "trade value" was "lower"
Knowing which pick you are trading for is VERY valuable.
I agree that we can get "more" in a trade now than we can next year, but as I've already pointed out a top-10 pick in 2022 is worth significantly more than a 25th pick in 2022 and a mid first-round pick in 2023. You couldn't trade the 25th pick and a future #1 for the 8th pick in the draft. The Bears, for instance moved from 20 to 12 and it cost them a future first, a current 5th, and a future 4th.
So yeah, we can trade him now for two 1sts and a young player of starting caliber. But if we can trade him next year for a single first--but in the top ten--and a starting caliber player, we have actually come out ahead, even though his "trade value" was "lower"
Knowing which pick you are trading for is VERY valuable.
If I remember correctly Favre had right to refuse trade to just any team, did that change with this new CBA? or am I wrong about that? seemed like Favre had to sign off on the trade to the Jets.
If I remember correctly Favre had right to refuse trade to just any team, did that change with this new CBA? or am I wrong about that? seemed like Favre had to sign off on the trade to the Jets.
Two possible answers, and I'm not sure which (or both) was the case...
1) individuals can negotiate no-trade clauses which means their individual contract says they cannot be traded. That allows the player to pick the team because the player can volunteer to waive the no-trade clause if the team finds a trade destination that the player prefers.
2) Favre had retired, and filed the paperwork, I believe. He simply would not file for re-instatement if the Packers wanted to trade him somewhere that he didn't want to play. And the Packers would never get a team to trade for Favre's rights until Favre filed for re-instatement and made clear he would accept the trade. Otherwise a team is giving up draft capital for the CHANCE that a player decides to file for reinstatement, which would be a bold, dumb thing to do.
If I remember correctly Favre had right to refuse trade to just any team, did that change with this new CBA? or am I wrong about that? seemed like Favre had to sign off on the trade to the Jets.
Two possible answers, and I'm not sure which (or both) was the case...
1) individuals can negotiate no-trade clauses which means their individual contract says they cannot be traded. That allows the player to pick the team because the player can volunteer to waive the no-trade clause if the team finds a trade destination that the player prefers.
2) Favre had retired, and filed the paperwork, I believe. He simply would not file for re-instatement if the Packers wanted to trade him somewhere that he didn't want to play. And the Packers would never get a team to trade for Favre's rights until Favre filed for re-instatement and made clear he would accept the trade. Otherwise a team is giving up draft capital for the CHANCE that a player decides to file for reinstatement, which would be a bold, dumb thing to do.
I'm not exactly sure what [mention]Yoop[/mention] is remembering, but I think there was a deal in place with Tampa but the Packers are the ones who pulled out of that when the Jets entered the picture because GB had Tampa on the schedule that year.
If I remember correctly Favre had right to refuse trade to just any team, did that change with this new CBA? or am I wrong about that? seemed like Favre had to sign off on the trade to the Jets.
Two possible answers, and I'm not sure which (or both) was the case...
1) individuals can negotiate no-trade clauses which means their individual contract says they cannot be traded. That allows the player to pick the team because the player can volunteer to waive the no-trade clause if the team finds a trade destination that the player prefers.
2) Favre had retired, and filed the paperwork, I believe. He simply would not file for re-instatement if the Packers wanted to trade him somewhere that he didn't want to play. And the Packers would never get a team to trade for Favre's rights until Favre filed for re-instatement and made clear he would accept the trade. Otherwise a team is giving up draft capital for the CHANCE that a player decides to file for reinstatement, which would be a bold, dumb thing to do.
I'm not exactly sure what @Yoop is remembering, but I think there was a deal in place with Tampa but the Packers are the ones who pulled out of that when the Jets entered the picture because GB had Tampa on the schedule that year.
If I remember correctly Favre had right to refuse trade to just any team, did that change with this new CBA? or am I wrong about that? seemed like Favre had to sign off on the trade to the Jets.
Two possible answers, and I'm not sure which (or both) was the case...
1) individuals can negotiate no-trade clauses which means their individual contract says they cannot be traded. That allows the player to pick the team because the player can volunteer to waive the no-trade clause if the team finds a trade destination that the player prefers.
2) Favre had retired, and filed the paperwork, I believe. He simply would not file for re-instatement if the Packers wanted to trade him somewhere that he didn't want to play. And the Packers would never get a team to trade for Favre's rights until Favre filed for re-instatement and made clear he would accept the trade. Otherwise a team is giving up draft capital for the CHANCE that a player decides to file for reinstatement, which would be a bold, dumb thing to do.
I think #2 is how that went back then, also it seemed to me players could sit out a year, and then go wherever they wanted back then, so teams where more will to trade players to teams of there prefernce?????
also it seemed to me players could sit out a year, and then go wherever they wanted back then
I don't know if that was true of players under contract, but that is how it used to work (maybe still does...?) for guys under the franchise tag. I think Sean Gilbert was a guy who sat out a year and then signed elsewhere.
Re: Rodgers wants out
Posted: 28 May 2021 13:30
by Acrobat
It’s Friday afternoon before a holiday. Totally expecting Schefter to break that Rodgers is going to be traded after June 1st.
Re: Rodgers wants out
Posted: 28 May 2021 17:42
by lake shark
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
Just had a stinkin' thought ............... Imagine this blasting out of the Titletown District and other Lambeau Field tailgating venues (Stadium View, etc.) before the Packers games (before or after #12 is gone). Sick, I'm tellin' you ........... Sick.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
Just had a stinkin' thought ............... Imagine this blasting out of the Titletown District and other Lambeau Field tailgating venues (Stadium View, etc.) before the Packers games (before or after #12 is gone). Sick, I'm tellin' you ........... Sick.
Love isn't going to stink. He may never be MVP but he is going to win a lot of SB's. And that is what it is all about for fans like me. I could care less if the Packers QB gets the regular season MVP. I want to see the Packers with more points at the end or the Super Bowl again. I want Lombardi in GB again.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
I agree. If Love is awful, and we have a top 10 pick in the draft, we have the draft capital to move up the top spot if we want. I don’t know if there are any great looking QB’s coming up for 2022 but that is an option for the worst case scenario.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
I agree. If Love is awful, and we have a top 10 pick in the draft, we have the draft capital to move up the top spot if we want. I don’t know if there are any great looking QB’s coming up for 2022 but that is an option for the worst case scenario.
QB for 2022 draft isn't good. There may not be anyone worth taking at one, and if there is it will be a one year wonder guy, I think.
Re: Rodgers wants out
Posted: 29 May 2021 12:52
by Turk's B.B.C.
Both AR and Love stay this season. Too expensive to trade Rodgers. We trade him and we lose some vets next year, guaranteed, even with the salcap increasing. So, then what? A couple years of rebuild with all those draft picks we're supposed to glean from the Broncos? Does anyone believe Denver would be silly enough to give up the talent that has been suggested, PLUS high draft picks? That would leave them with a 38-year-old MVP with dubious talent around him and no picks. Not gonna happen.
Does anyone believe that Gute would fire-sale a QB who he traded up in the 1st to get? No way. He'd look like an imbecile
Now maybe if next spring's QB class is really mediocre and some team thought Love would be a safer bet, we see Love get traded for decent compensation (like a 1st).
What everyone sees of Love this season will determine the future of both him and AR. I believe Rodgers comes back, but we all have seen what can happen to a hold-out when they finally get back on the field. If he misses afeq games and Love shows potential, we have a good problem.
The Pack holds all the cards right now. They aren't gonna be dumb and trade themselves into a rebuild.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
Just had a stinkin' thought ............... Imagine this blasting out of the Titletown District and other Lambeau Field tailgating venues (Stadium View, etc.) before the Packers games (before or after #12 is gone). Sick, I'm tellin' you ........... Sick.
Love isn't going to stink. He may never be MVP but he is going to win a lot of SB's. And that is what it is all about for fans like me. I could care less if the Packers QB gets the regular season MVP. I want to see the Packers with more points at the end or the Super Bowl again. I want Lombardi in GB again.
Just had a stinkin' thought ............... Imagine this blasting out of the Titletown District and other Lambeau Field tailgating venues (Stadium View, etc.) before the Packers games (before or after #12 is gone). Sick, I'm tellin' you ........... Sick.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
Just had a stinkin' thought ............... Imagine this blasting out of the Titletown District and other Lambeau Field tailgating venues (Stadium View, etc.) before the Packers games (before or after #12 is gone). Sick, I'm tellin' you ........... Sick.
The more I think about this the more I come to the position of just milking Denver for everything you can get and move on. As other members have said Aaron’s value is never higher than now. He’s got a lot of things going on that are distractions. He’s no longer as mobile. He played great for sure in 2020 but how much of that was him and how much was the system? He didn’t make the transcending plays needed in the TB game after the D stepped up in the second half and instead predictably tried to force it to Davante. The 2021 running game is set up to be awesome. If Love stinks then you have enough draft capital to pick another QB in 2022.
Just had a stinkin' thought ............... Imagine this blasting out of the Titletown District and other Lambeau Field tailgating venues (Stadium View, etc.) before the Packers games (before or after #12 is gone). Sick, I'm tellin' you ........... Sick.
Love isn't going to stink. He may never be MVP but he is going to win a lot of SB's. And that is what it is all about for fans like me. I could care less if the Packers QB gets the regular season MVP. I want to see the Packers with more points at the end or the Super Bowl again. I want Lombardi in GB again.
It would be great but if wins alot of superbowls high chance he gets a MVP
