An Ideal Draft/Offseason according to YoHo

[YoHoChecko]

I wouldn't move on from David AND even if GB did - there would be a line around the block to retain his services. Bak had a rough stretch ( to put it mildly ), but he's missed little time outside of this terrible episode. All of that is in the past per Bak and his MDs.The value of keeping him and Elgton together is immense - they are the OL anchor young Love needs to succeed. ( I would draft competition at RT though)

Nijman is a great swing OT, put him out there all season and they will work his weaknesses relentlessly.
Finding a swing OT in UDFA is already a huge win; let's not get greedy in asking him to hold down the LT spot long term.
That's a bridge too far imo.

And yes, I did list Tom as LT/C. He reminds me SO much of Bakhtiari coming out, who was drafted in the 4th round and thought by many many people, and discussed internally by the coaches and scouts, as a potential OC prospect. But when you have a guy who can play LT in the league, you ideally don't put him at OC.

Bakhtiari at draft time:

6' 4 1/4"
299 pounds
34" arms
5.09 40-yard
1.77 10-yard
7.70 3-cone
4.74 short shuttle
28 bench press reps
25.5" vertical
Colorado's left tackle, thought by many to be a future interior player, maybe OC; surprised at OT as a rookie

Zach Tom at draft time:
6' 4 1/4"
307 pounds
33 1/4" arms
4.94 40-yard
1.63 10-yard
7.32 3-cone
4.47 short shuttle
24 bench press reps
33" vertical jump
Wake Forest's left tackle, thought by many to be a future interior player, maybe OC; surprised at OT and OG as a rookie

Worst case scenario, Jenkins is a better LT than RT from what we've seen thus far in his career.

But yeah, I get it. I'm just wary of a guy who's going to be 32 around the start of the season (September birthday) and has missed huge amounts of time for two years. Aging bodies don't respond from injury the way youthful bodies do. Sure, he looked great when he came back, but we're basically spending $20 on a gamble that his body isn't breaking down despite the experience of the past two years.

I'd love to trade him and get good return value; I'd love for him and Rodgers to go as a package deal because they're best friends. But this isn't an animated kids show where best friends with giant cap numbers get traded together because it's cute. So I just threw it in as a thing I would probably do because I'm ready to turn the page to the next generation of Packers players; and because I believe in Zach Tom and Nijman is a much better fallback option than most teams have the luxury of having.

[BF004]

I see no downside to investing early in another guy of the Elgton, Hanson, Tom, Lucas Patrick mold, with the interior versatility.

I am by no means sold on JRJ yet, Elgton still might be our long term LT, 3 possible interior spots available. Worth as high as a late 1 or 2nd to get another body there with a lot of upside.

[YoHoChecko]

He will be a 3rd year Pro. The move on train is a bit derailed at this point.

Here's Mike Wahle spending 20+ minutes breaking down film on Josh Myers. Really well done
Yoho, sorry to derail your offseason thread, but its definitely worth checking out

https://youtu.be/fDsNv_gFxCE

The film review starts at around the 7:20 mark, tons of interesting teaching points and the take away is that Myers needs more work on technique- especially his footwork the run game - but he has all the tools to be a long term starting OC. Yoho spending a 5th to deepen the position seems prudent, spending more is premature.

This isn't derailing it at all! My offseason included a question about how to best deal with Myers' struggles and the investment we have in the position. I had a suggested answer. And now we're discussing that aspect of it! I welcome this "derailment"

[YoHoChecko]

I see no downside to investing early in another guy of the Elgton, Hanson, Tom, Lucas Patrick mold, with the interior versatility.

I am by no means sold on JRJ yet, Elgton still might be our long term LT, 3 possible interior spots available. Worth as high as a late 1 or 2nd to get another body there with a lot of upside.

Steve Avila, if he tests well enough to hit our minimal athleticism thresholds, is a great C/G option for that. He's probably in the 45 to 65 range draft stock wise. That's an investment that, as you said, could be JRJ insurance, could be Myers insurance (both guys have been less consistent than ideal), and could be "what if Jenkins ends up back at OT" insurance (though I don't like that and I think 2022 argued against it, it still may happen)

[BF004]

I see no downside to investing early in another guy of the Elgton, Hanson, Tom, Lucas Patrick mold, with the interior versatility.

I am by no means sold on JRJ yet, Elgton still might be our long term LT, 3 possible interior spots available. Worth as high as a late 1 or 2nd to get another body there with a lot of upside.

Steve Avila, if he tests well enough to hit our minimal athleticism thresholds, is a great C/G option for that. He's probably in the 45 to 65 range draft stock wise. That's an investment that, as you said, could be JRJ insurance, could be Myers insurance (both guys have been less consistent than ideal), and could be "what if Jenkins ends up back at OT" insurance (though I don't like that and I think 2022 argued against it, it still may happen)

Funny you mentioned him, he was the exact guy I had in mind. Just dug into him this last week and loved him. Took him in my last PFF mock draft in the 3rd I believe. But seems like such a Packer type pick. Not sure if there is anything to it in the Creed Humphrey vs Josh Meyers decision, but Avila is a left handed center like Creed.

[BF004]

And JRJ is a free agent in 2024 as well. Our offensive line as it is today would surely be worse without him, but we might be a better team if we can keep that spot on a rookie contract and spend that $$ elsewhere.

[Labrev]

We need at least one starting-caliber IOL, IMO. The variance we get from Myers and JRJ is too much. Myers needs to clean it up or sit.

JRJ is also inconsistent, and is a poor complement to Jenkins. Jenkins is a very athletic wall-off blocker, not much of a bully in the run game, and he has played poorly in our biggest games. JRJ is an athletic pass-pro guy who's not much of a force multiplier in the run.

The result of those two guys being our starting guards is that when we get punched in the mouth, we fall apart.

Jenkins' extension means he's our starting LG for the next few seasons. JRJ should be let to walk, though. Great return on a 6th-round pick, we probably get back better from his comp pick, but we badly need a more physical presence at the other guard spot.

[YoHoChecko]

The comments about being physical, as well as Wahle in the video talking about finishing, are exactly why I love Darnell Wright. He needs to clean up some technique as well, but he's showed huge progress in that; but he loves to finish and be a bully. I think we need that from our RT and while you guys were talking about the interior, I think a) that kind of play can be infectious, and b) having that kind of player next to you really does act as the force multiplier of having more of a technician type of player inside.

It was very interesting hearing Wahle talk about becoming a finisher as a progression of improving technique for Myers. I have always seen that more as you have the demeanor or you don't. Wahle seems to be of the belief that if Myers cleans up his process, he'll be in better position and have the added confidence to use his superior size and athleticism to become that kind of finisher. I wonder if we can hire Wahle to come be the assistant OLine coach of special offseason work consultant. Get those guys into a more butt-kicking mentality.

[YoHoChecko]

Funny you mentioned him, he was the exact guy I had in mind. Just dug into him this last week and loved him. Took him in my last PFF mock draft in the 3rd I believe. But seems like such a Packer type pick. Not sure if there is anything to it in the Creed Humphrey vs Josh Meyers decision, but Avila is a left handed center like Creed.

Interesting note on the handedness...

Avila's draft stock is confusing to me. I went into Senior Bowl week stoked about Cody Mauch and his finisher demeanor; due to his shorter arms and stature, Mauch was moved inside and played at OG and C. And I kept reading reports of Mauch improving throughout the week and showing he belonged coming from a lower-level program. But I noticed they kept complimenting how well he "re-set" and when I watched clips of drills and 1-on-1s on twitter, I saw Mauch getting knocked backward over and over again.

Throughout the week, Avila kept winning. Matthew Bergeron (OT but I think took a few reps inside) of Syracuse kept winning. And it was well-reported and noted that those guys were winning; and of course John Michael Schmidt was the OL darling of the event.

I came out thinking "If Mauch is on the interior now, and not getting the OT positional value bonus, his draft status can't be ahead of Avila and Bergeron; and has to be miles behind JMS"

And then all sorts of "post senior bowl rankings" seemed to still have Avila in the 60s or 70s and Bergeron in the 50s and Mauch in the 45-50 range and JMS in the 40-45 range. And I just don't get it. They play the same position. And one is just WAY better than the other. Mauch isn't strong enough to start in the NFL right now, and Bergeron and Avila and JMS are being called, from multiple sources, Day One starter types. And it's not like Mauch's upside is that much higher than the others--I mean an extra athletic finisher is great; it's why I was excited about him. But if you're small and weak and not ready to play, it's not hard to be extra athletic--we can get that later.

Anyway, that's a whole lot to say that I don't think Avila's draft stock has been properly upgraded to reflect the sort of player everyone seems to agree that he is. To me, he's pushing the top 50; but you're right that I keep seeing him as a 3rd round range kind of guy.

[Backthepack4ever]

Awesome work and thought into this.

I am with you with the AR trade and stacking picks but if we do make that move I really don't want to drop back that far back for a maybe at 20. Yes the skills and upside are great but from 7 to there I'm wanting a team that is crazy desperate and offers more then a fair deal. That's just me but we have seen teams do crazy stuff to move up for their guy. That's me though. I do love the 2 TE idea if that risk paid off and it landed that way but to your point.... At least we think... Musgrave isn't as sexy unless you get Washington also to run the system you want.

Nothing against the positional grabs. I like some the players. None really scream wow but I see some long term starting potential in Washington and Wright. Wright I don't have concern about a 1 year figuring it out. Sometimes it takes time to click. He's got the tools to lockdown the right side.

Brown is interesting esp with the upside. Good pick

Tillman is meh. Ok pick but not interested in Hutchinson esp when the talk is he can't separate. With the TEs and other speed no need to even go that route. Build a track team with freak Tes.

The late round guys are perfect swings. Some small school freaks that dominated and might grow into something. That what late rounds are for

Good stuff

[bud fox]

F for trading Rodgers.

But wasted top picks for me.

I wouldn't go higher than a 3rd on Musgrave and Washington is like Mercedes.

[Scott4Pack]

I see no downside to investing early in another guy of the Elgton, Hanson, Tom, Lucas Patrick mold, with the interior versatility.

I am by no means sold on JRJ yet, Elgton still might be our long term LT, 3 possible interior spots available. Worth as high as a late 1 or 2nd to get another body there with a lot of upside.

I think the Packers draft at least one of those every year, with one of them in the first three rounds.

[YoHoChecko]

Ya know, since this is a thread about my opinions and since it keeps coming up both around the board and here specifically, let me lay out my Marcedes Lewis thoughts.

When someone says that they don't value Lewis, it may seem like a simple opinion; in many ways, it is. But I use that opinion as an indicator as to how people may view the game. Here's what I hear:

1. A TE's contributions only matter if they come in the passing game.
Look, in the modern game, the passing game is more important than the run game; I acknowledge that. But the TE position is, itself, complicated and difficult to learn specifically because it is the marriage of the run game and pass game. Nearly every team has a blocking TE whose primary responsibility is accentuating the run game by contributing in that regard. Lewis is, by and large, considered to be the actual best at that role--in the league. Multiple observers, multiple independent analysts... they say he's the best blocking TE in the league. It's a legitimate role, and we have the best at it.

2. Our team's players, officials, and coaches are lying to us
(or, you know better than they do)

Some people like our coach; some people like our GM; some people like our QB. Everyone on this board likes and respects at least one of those three guys, not to mention the numerous other players and position coaches who have weighed in. And to a man, they rave about his impact on the team. They talk about all the things he does that maybe fans don't see. They tell us that he has a positive impact on the field and in the locker room.

Certainly, there is always going to be some coachspeak. Certainly, there might be players silently resenting Lewis that don't feel they can speak up. But these comments often come unprompted. So when you say that this player doesn't add worthwhile value to the Packers, you either think you know better than the actual insider experts or you're so anti-authority that you can't trust anyone with anything that you don't know personally.

3. That veteran leadership and example don't matter
It's wild to me that when we find ourselves with an overly young team, which has happened in my adult fandom, fans regularly and routinely complain that we need more/better veteran leadership. Often, it is part of calls for more free agent signings or against "draft and develop." Which also means it is often the exact same types of fans and often the exact same fans that also dismiss Lewis.

I sometimes hear "hire him as a coach if you want that." I often hear "it's a young man's game and veteran leadership is for sentimentality." But it is very different to have a technically sound player with a tireless work ethic and respect from his peers than having a good coach. The players can't model themselves or their practice habits by a coach; their jobs are different. A lot of players come into the league from small programs and haven't seen what it looks like to be a pro. A lot of players come into the league and have always been better than their opponents and think they know what it means to work hard, but only because they've never really had to. A by-example leader in the room is a different story. When you say that Lewis does not add value to the team and the position room, I hear that you don't understand the usefulness of veteran leadership gaining the respect of the players in the room and leading by example.

---------------

So yes. I trash people mercilessly for expressing that opinion. And honestly, he's played 18 years. Maybe it's his time to go. That's fine. But when you just laugh at his foot speed or say he could be replaced by a body off the practice squad. We have the best blocking TE in the league by many accounts, a veteran leader, and a guy who the players, coaches, and management of our team will pound the table with passion when talking about; a guy the sideline jumps up and roots for on the bench when he makes a rare passing game contribution. That has leadership. That has wisdom. That has technical refinement, work ethic, and who appreciates all the details of the game.

If you don't see any value in that, I feel totally justified in wondering if you understand what makes football work; the people behind the stats; the human element of development and teamwork.... All of it.

That's my opinion; that's my indicator; that's why I come down hard.

If he moves on, he moves on. But saying that Darnell Washington "reminds you of Lewis" as a negative.... a guy who has played 18 seasons, made a pro bowl, and has the respect of all the grown men and egos that surround him. We could only be so lucky as to find the next Marcedes Lewis.

[Scott4Pack]

Does anybody here think we would place more priority on drafting LBs this year and into the future? I’m thinking like the Steelers draft. They seem to always spend high picks on LBs that can upgrade virtually any defense.

We do need to draft an Edge guy high this year, I feel. But you never know how long we’ll be able to keep Campbell.

[YoHoChecko]

Does anybody here think we would place more priority on drafting LBs this year and into the future? I’m thinking like the Steelers draft. They seem to always spend high picks on LBs that can upgrade virtually any defense.

But you never know how long we’ll be able to keep Campbell.

No, I don't.

We literally just did that with a first round pick last year AND signed Campbell to a large 4-year deal. We've invested more at iLB in the past 12 months than probably any team. We're fine with low round fliers for a year or three

[Backthepack4ever]

Ya know, since this is a thread about my opinions and since it keeps coming up both around the board and here specifically, let me lay out my Marcedes Lewis thoughts.

When someone says that they don't value Lewis, it may seem like a simple opinion; in many ways, it is. But I use that opinion as an indicator as to how people may view the game. Here's what I hear:

1. A TE's contributions only matter if they come in the passing game.
Look, in the modern game, the passing game is more important than the run game; I acknowledge that. But the TE position is, itself, complicated and difficult to learn specifically because it is the marriage of the run game and pass game. Nearly every team has a blocking TE whose primary responsibility is accentuating the run game by contributing in that regard. Lewis is, by and large, considered to be the actual best at that role--in the league. Multiple observers, multiple independent analysts... they say he's the best blocking TE in the league. It's a legitimate role, and we have the best at it.

2. Our team's players, officials, and coaches are lying to us
(or, you know better than they do)

Some people like our coach; some people like our GM; some people like our QB. Everyone on this board likes and respects at least one of those three guys, not to mention the numerous other players and position coaches who have weighed in. And to a man, they rave about his impact on the team. They talk about all the things he does that maybe fans don't see. They tell us that he has a positive impact on the field and in the locker room.

Certainly, there is always going to be some coachspeak. Certainly, there might be players silently resenting Lewis that don't feel they can speak up. But these comments often come unprompted. So when you say that this player doesn't add worthwhile value to the Packers, you either think you know better than the actual insider experts or you're so anti-authority that you can't trust anyone with anything that you don't know personally.

3. That veteran leadership and example don't matter
It's wild to me that when we find ourselves with an overly young team, which has happened in my adult fandom, fans regularly and routinely complain that we need more/better veteran leadership. Often, it is part of calls for more free agent signings or against "draft and develop." Which also means it is often the exact same types of fans and often the exact same fans that also dismiss Lewis.

I sometimes hear "hire him as a coach if you want that." I often hear "it's a young man's game and veteran leadership is for sentimentality." But it is very different to have a technically sound player with a tireless work ethic and respect from his peers than having a good coach. The players can't model themselves or their practice habits by a coach; their jobs are different. A lot of players come into the league from small programs and haven't seen what it looks like to be a pro. A lot of players come into the league and have always been better than their opponents and think they know what it means to work hard, but only because they've never really had to. A by-example leader in the room is a different story. When you say that Lewis does not add value to the team and the position room, I hear that you don't understand the usefulness of veteran leadership gaining the respect of the players in the room and leading by example.

---------------

So yes. I trash people mercilessly for expressing that opinion. And honestly, he's played 18 years. Maybe it's his time to go. That's fine. But when you just laugh at his foot speed or say he could be replaced by a body off the practice squad. We have the best blocking TE in the league by many accounts, a veteran leader, and a guy who the players, coaches, and management of our team will pound the table with passion when talking about; a guy the sideline jumps up and roots for on the bench when he makes a rare passing game contribution. That has leadership. That has wisdom. That has technical refinement, work ethic, and who appreciates all the details of the game.

If you don't see any value in that, I feel totally justified in wondering if you understand what makes football work; the people behind the stats; the human element of development and teamwork.... All of it.

That's my opinion; that's my indicator; that's why I come down hard.

If he moves on, he moves on. But saying that Darnell Washington "reminds you of Lewis" as a negative.... a guy who has played 18 seasons, made a pro bowl, and has the respect of all the grown men and egos that surround him. We could only be so lucky as to find the next Marcedes Lewis.

I for one poke the bear on the internet's of the years always calling lewis a top ten OT that sometimes catches a TD. Mostly joking of not really. The dude is a 6th lineman that at times defenses let him free for a score or big 3rd down conversion. That's on the field. The leadership and respect is just as important if not more. Lewis saying himself it's for MF then AR speaks volumes of the team he reps


And on to the big future of Washington comparison let's not forget Mercedes Lewis was a first-round pick that was a beast for a long time. Maybe never use correctly maybe on some bad teams but this guy was the truth around the league even if it didn't show up on the stat sheet. Now when people talk about Washington and he might be a better athlete yeah sign me up. Yoho that post was fire

[lupedafiasco]

A TE is useless IMO if they offer no value in the passing game. For an offense that wants to be deceptive and have your pass plays look like run plays and vise versa a TE that is adequate in both is important. A dominant blocker is cool if he offers anything in the passing game but Lewis doesn’t.

His value as a pass catcher is that he’s so &%$@ and unimportant to the opponents defense that they leave him open. It’s like security by obscurity in a sense.

Let’s get a little more athletic at the position and stop over paying for someone one dimensional.

[YoHoChecko]

A TE is useless IMO if they offer no value in the passing game. For an offense that wants to be deceptive and have your pass plays look like run plays and vise versa a TE that is adequate in both is important. A dominant blocker is cool if he offers anything in the passing game but Lewis doesn’t.

His value as a pass catcher is that he’s so &%$@ and unimportant to the opponents defense that they leave him open. It’s like security by obscurity in a sense.

Let’s get a little more athletic at the position and stop over paying for someone one dimensional.

I feel very strongly that most of the Lewis haters are actually Tonyan and Deguara haters. Lewis does his job excellently. What you're upset about is that we don't have the guy ahead of him doing their job well.

Like I said, every team has TEs that primarily, overwhelmingly, are blockers. Ours happens to be the best at it, also to be a respected veteran leader, and also to be a technician.

And you've only doubled down on exactly what I just said. You only view a TE as valuable in the passing game. You don't trust the overwhelming number of people who speak effusively about him, and you don't value locker room contributions and leading by example. You only value a 2-way starting TE and don't give a hoot about other roles. That tells me something. And you're not even arguing against it. You're literally just admitting that you think exactly like I just described in that post.

[NCF]

A TE is useless IMO if they offer no value in the passing game. For an offense that wants to be deceptive and have your pass plays look like run plays and vise versa a TE that is adequate in both is important. A dominant blocker is cool if he offers anything in the passing game but Lewis doesn’t.

His value as a pass catcher is that he’s so &%$@ and unimportant to the opponents defense that they leave him open. It’s like security by obscurity in a sense.

Let’s get a little more athletic at the position and stop over paying for someone one dimensional.

I actually agree with lupe on this. At this point, we might as well develop a 7th-round OT to play "TE" the way Lewis does. YoHo's point holds true, as well... Lewis plays his role perfectly, but his salary is becoming prohibitive for someone that plays that role... even if it is really well when I think they can get similar production from someone on a rookie contract.

[YoHoChecko]

Lewis plays his role perfectly, but his salary is becoming prohibitive for someone that plays that role... even if it is really well when I think they can get similar production from someone on a rookie contract.

Think of the position group salary though.

Tonyan is a free agent. Deguara is on a rookie contract.

If we fill out the future of the group with two more rookie contracts, isn’t it worth it to keep Lewis around to maintain his role and mentor the youth of the position?

If we want to spend money on a free agent receiving weapon, certainly. But in the off-season scenario discussed here, the TE room is Musgrave, Washington, Deguara, and Lewis. We’d probably have a bottom five cap cost to the tight end room in the league. Having a rookie contract blocker instead of Lewis accomplishes nothing save getting worse at blocking and completely inexperienced at the position.