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I've never fully believed in the "time of possession" issue.
Me neither. And I tend to look at the first half as a big indicator. The reason is that once you cross the threshold of "tired" - there's no going back regardless of how much rest you get later in the game. So keeping the defense off the field in first half is super important and I'd guess the defenses that tire out in Q4 - probably played too many 1st half snaps. Some websites have looked at T.O.P. overall, but I've never seen it split out by 1st half vs full game so I am happy to believe in my hypothesis until proven otherwise.
