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Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 08:50
by paco
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 08:43
BF004 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 08:31
So a legit 3 year contract.
This is my take/understanding, as well.
All this talk about the dead money if he walks after 2 years sounds, to me, like he can't walk after 2 years--the team can recoup un-earned bonus money if a player retires before the end of the contract, and while they often don't, in this case, they clearly would have to to reduce that charge.
So we're either headed for a very messy divorce in 2 years, which is certainly possible, or this deal runs at least 3 years. I don't see why anyone would consider it anything less than a 3-year commitment, honestly. It sounds like there's 3rd-year money still guaranteed, even.
I do agree with this. But given how these sides seem to be attracted to the mess, I'm not going to go in thinking its a guaranteed 3 years. We'll see what happens after 2. We know we'll have that for sure.
I'm just crossing my fingers for a 2023 offseason of no Rodgers drama.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 08:53
by Yoop
he said a year ago that he wanted a new 3 yr window if he was going to leave, this seems to account for those wishes, and then some, said he wanted to retire as a Packer, this contract does that to, this contract is also cap friendly, well as friendly as we hoped it would be, so imo this has worked out well for Rodgers and the team.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 11:35
by British
I bloody love this deal for the Packers.
Cap hits over the next three years are amazing:
2022: 28m
2023: 31m
2024: 40m
(Kirk Cousins is on 31 in 2022 and 35 in 2023
)
Those cap numbers will allow the Packers to build a really solid team around Rodgers for the next three years.
Then after 2024 he will be the only player to have played 20 years with the same team and likely retires. (Or we trade him/extend him - in terms of the cap a cut or trade is the same as a retirement).
Assuming he retires, in 2025 we have a 45m dead cap it. That seems more than fine to me.
By then the cap will likely be close to 300m and we'll either have a QB on a rookie deal or be doing a tear down, get a high draft pick and grab our QB of the future in 2025.
Amazing work from the Packers. Three legit shots at a ring, then a rebuilding year, and off we go again.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 11:49
by Foosball
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 11:53
by wallyuwl
Foosball wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:49
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
This.
Meanwhile Brady has a $22 mill cap hit. Bucs the favorites in nfc. Then Rams, maybe AZ and Dal, then GB.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 11:59
by BF004
wallyuwl wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:53
Foosball wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:49
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
This.
Meanwhile Brady has a $22 mill cap hit. Bucs the favorites in nfc. Then Rams, maybe AZ and Dal, then GB.
Real dollars say otherwise...
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Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:03
by Realist
Foosball wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:49
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
The mortgaging isnt quite done. Have the bend over brothers locked up Adams yet on an absurd deal?
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:03
by wallyuwl
BF004 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:59
Real dollars say otherwise...
image.png
Packers also had the highest odds to win the SB when the playoffs started, 21%, and were 1 and done.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:08
by British
Foosball wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:49
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
Cap hell for one year.
We've had 30 years of HoF QB play. We can survive a single year dead cap hit of 45m on a cap of 300m.
I can understand that if you think Rodgers is past it and now some kind of choke artist you'll probably hate it. My view is that the playoffs are a bit of a lottery - all you can do is get there and hope to get hot for a couple of games. The Rams weren't the best team this year, a couple of bounces the other way and they don't even make the post season.
Rodgers is still the back to back MVP and paired with MLF they give us a punchers chance. That's all you can ask for in the NFL.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:14
by BF004
wallyuwl wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 12:03
BF004 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:59
Real dollars say otherwise...
image.png
Packers also had the highest odds to win the SB when the playoffs started, 21%, and were 1 and done.
Would you prefer they had lower odds?
Also do you understand what 21% means or what odds mean?
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:23
by Yoop
Foosball wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:49
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
WTF, you keep spouting this non sense, and it is so beyond wrong it's down right foolishness, Rodgers isn't the only reason we lost last year, and over all Rodgers has played well in all the PO games, in fact better then the QB's of the teams we lost to.
and as long as we get to the PO's it's better then we'd do without him in the length of this contract, some people are never happy, some people will always find something to complain about, I guess it goes with the territory, but this Rodgers crap is really getting old Foosball.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:26
by Yoop
British wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 12:08
Foosball wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 11:49
To me, it’s mortgaging the future for a ship that’s already passed.
So yes I’ll enjoy the next few years knowing the Packers will more than likely win the NFC north or at least get the wild card. Rodgers will get his stats. Then I’ll watch them fizzle in the playoffs…mainly due to Rodgers.
All the while knowing in the back of my mind that they’re headed straight to cap hell.
Cap hell for one year.
We've had 30 years of HoF QB play. We can survive a single year dead cap hit of 45m on a cap of 300m.
I can understand that if you think Rodgers is past it and now some kind of choke artist you'll probably hate it. My view is that the playoffs are a bit of a lottery - all you can do is get there and hope to get hot for a couple of games. The Rams weren't the best team this year, a couple of bounces the other way and they don't even make the post season.
Rodgers is still the back to back MVP and paired with MLF they give us a punchers chance. That's all you can ask for in the NFL.
people need to go look at Rodgers stats in PO games before they spout there non sensical crap, instead they blindly blame the QB for everything.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 12:56
by Crazylegs Starks
Yoop wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 12:26
people need to go look at Rodgers stats in PO games before they spout there non sensical crap, instead they blindly blame the QB for everything.
Stats-schmats! Rodgers and the offense couldn't pull it off the last two years even though the defense gave them chances. As for blame for last season, #1A is special teams, but #1B is Rodgers. He was awful after Big Dog's fumble.
(#2 are LaFleur's pre-game decisions in case you were wondering)
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 13:07
by Drj820
my only question now is where should the hope come from that things will be different in the future? I agree it is probably the smartest thing overall to bring back Rodgers...seeing that we are keeping Adams, Campbell, maybe Rasul, still have Jaire etc.
I agree the D looks ready to roll outside of needing to beef up the DL.
I agree the STs made what looks like a really good hire and hopefully has a good chance to improve.
But the O...they have consistently come up short against good defenses in the postseason. And we keep just trotting out the same core and trying again. Not sure how we can improve that side of the ball, but look at the Chiefs..they have Kelce and Hill..and it still wasnt enough for them as they just brought in Landry too. I continue to think the WR position is a problem because teams can and will shut down Adams in the playoffs if he is the only one they have to worry about.
Im not saying we have alot of options to improve the O, just saying it almost feels like we are flirting with the definition of insanity when it may be time to switch the game plan up and try a new route of attack.
That said, we probably are doing what gives us the highest percentage chance of success.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 13:37
by YoHoChecko
Yeah, throw out what you think about how long Rodgers wants to play....
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This deal is CLEARLY structured to be a 3-year deal. Everything we've ever known about cap savings versus dead cap indicates you don't PLAN to do a deal that costs you $68 million in dead money for a player not on your roster when it would cost $40 million to keep him and play him.
Even after that, I bet if Rodgers plays 3 and retires, they spread the cap out over 2 years post-June 1st style and take two years of $22.5 M dead hits rather than one year of $45 M dead cap, especially since by then (2025) we're probably looking at a cap of like $275 M (some reports it might jump as much as 20% in 2023 and maybe again in 2024 as the new TV money enters the revenue stream, but they often smooth that out over longer periods of time)
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 13:46
by go pak go
At that cost, I'd rather pay Rodgers to be on a sucky team in 2025 and make him earn his paycheck rather than the Packers needing to pay him $45 million to sit on a couch at home drinking 3 fingers of scotch or tequila.
Keep Love this year. No reason to cut loose yet unless we get a good offer (like if Indy offers us a 2nd). Evaluate what you have in him. Probably draft a QB in 2023 or 2024 and then make Rodgers teach the newly drafted QB in 2024 and 2025. We will suck but at least get your money out of Rodgers at that point.
We are in a 2 year window of having any legit chance of being a contender. Get it done in 2022 and 2023 and then enjoy the farewell tour in 2024 and 2025.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 13:58
by Yoop
Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 12:56
Yoop wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 12:26
people need to go look at Rodgers stats in PO games before they spout there non sensical crap, instead they blindly blame the QB for everything.
Stats-schmats! Rodgers and the offense couldn't pull it off the last two years even though the defense gave them chances. As for blame for last season, #1A is special teams, but #1B is Rodgers. He was awful after Big Dog's fumble.
(#2 are LaFleur's pre-game decisions in case you were wondering)
well I admit sometimes stats can be misleading, but Rodgers has done well enough in most of the PO games for us to win, 2011, 2015, and this last year pass rush where the biggest problem on offense, when a QB is limited to only one or maybe two reads then they can miss a wide open Lazard or a dump off receiver, in 2020 we ended up winning one game and losing one, Rodgers went 56 of 84 for a 66.7 comp % and 642 yrds, easily good enough for us to win, Adams dropped a TD pass, I think Tonyan did to, along with about 5 other dropped passes, yet people blame Rodgers for the loss, those people need a frontal lobotomy
seriously though, people are quick to pass blame to the QB and over look other glaring fails.
when facing stellar pass rush the QB has to get rid of the ball fast, specially so when the OL can't sustain the blocking, so when receivers can't get open on schedule the offense will struggle, the QB eventually will get happy feet, and as we saw from Rodgers will look to often to his favorite receiver, and miss others that are open, imo that describes Rodgers against the 49ers, true he didn't play up to his ability, but there are valid reason why, course no one wants to hear any of that.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 14:00
by Drj820
id say the person that needs to step up the most come January is Lacoach.
Run the ball, dont make OL changes right before playoff games, take responsibility for every phase of the game including STs if its needed, coach 12 hard, call more creative plays, dont get tight.
Gute has assembled the roster. Its time for Lacoach to elevate his squad.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 14:01
by go pak go
Yoop wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 13:58
true he didn't play up to his ability, but there are valid reason why, course no one wants to hear any of that.
You can use this phrase for every player on the 53 man roster and every coach on the sideline.
It's football. It is the sport with the most players, most personnel and most variables. Of course there can always be "other things"
The interesting part is how people at arriving at the final "who to blame spot"
Normally that spot is reserved for the lowest paid, lowest impacted players on the team. Which I find weird.
Re: Aaron Rodgers V2022
Posted: 15 Mar 2022 14:02
by Yoop
Drj820 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2022 13:07
my only question now is where should the hope come from that things will be different in the future? I agree it is probably the smartest thing overall to bring back Rodgers...seeing that we are keeping Adams, Campbell, maybe Rasul, still have Jaire etc.
I agree the D looks ready to roll outside of needing to beef up the DL.
I agree the STs made what looks like a really good hire and hopefully has a good chance to improve.
But the O...they have consistently come up short against good defenses in the postseason. And we keep just trotting out the same core and trying again. Not sure how we can improve that side of the ball, but look at the Chiefs..they have Kelce and Hill..and it still wasnt enough for them as they just brought in Landry too. I continue to think the WR position is a problem because teams can and will shut down Adams in the playoffs if he is the only one they have to worry about.
Im not saying we have alot of options to improve the O, just saying it almost feels like we are flirting with the definition of insanity when it may be time to switch the game plan up and try a new route of attack.
That said, we probably are doing what gives us the highest percentage chance of success.
there is this concept that most football people agree about, two very good receivers is better then one, obviously the Packer FO doesn't think so, but that and fixing this OL would be my approach to improvement.