Packers Huddle

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 09:46

I get why...

but...

It's annoying that the NFL playoff scenarios the NFL puts out are basically 1-seed, division, or playoff berth.

Like I get it. But I want to know what seeds these teams are so we can look at likely wild card matchups or discuss which things we want to see happen, for personal or Packers reasons. The Bill Simmons podcast that guesses upcoming betting lines for the next week's games seemed to have a breakdown for which seeds the teams would end up in, and I would like to peruse that more often. The tiebreaking scnearios are nuts, but they exist. Just list it all!

I like this: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I've used this site too: https://nflplayoffscenarios.com/#nfc-scenarios-by-seed

Should probably be a grid somewhere with all the possibilities.


Kind of like how LV and LA are basically in a win and your in game, loser goes home.

BF004 wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 09:59

Should probably be a grid somewhere with all the possibilities.

Here we go, this is what I was talking about.




I guess no one wants the 4 seed, having Arizona first or potentially the Rams, but Dallas looks fairly locked into it.

SF and NO both look like they need to go out and win, Philly locked into 6 or 7.

go pak go wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 09:58

I am usually about this too but because the NFL is lowest plays highest seed and not a "bracket" system, there are just so many things that can happen I don't worry about that because it will just simply change.

Basically all I know right now is the Packers can literally play ANY team in the divisional round except TB. Literally any one can be the 4 seed or lower at this point except it looks like a Bucs loss and Cowboys win still puts DAL at the #4 seed.

But LA, AZ, DAL, SF, PHI, NO all have a very strong chance of being a 4 seed or lower and therefore playing us.

That's why I said for Packer or personal reasons.

I also just want to see good games or interesting matchups. I'm on the side of "divisional rematches in the playoffs bore me because I've already seen that game twice" so I like to see fewer of those. I want to see matchups where teams have strengths against strengths, like the Bucs' run D (shaky of late) versus the 49ers or Eagles right now. Or the Cowboys' O versus the Saints' D. Or if I have a specific rooting interest, want to see specific matchups exploited. I always liked to go into the last week of the season with like a list of who I'm rooting for in every game because the results are so final afterwards. It can be draft-related or playoff related or whatever.

I just wish more detailed seeding ramifications was more accessible.

But also, I found a good (though incomplete) place for it while complaining, so...

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/1/3/ ... lts-saints

AFC a little crazier yet.

Thanks [mention]BF004[/mention]

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:06

Thanks @BF004

Bring your FO stuff too, wonder what the most likely matchups all are. i.e., Carolina winning in TB is not as likely as SF beating the Rams.

BF004 wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:08

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:06

Thanks @BF004

Bring your FO stuff too, wonder what the most likely matchups all are. i.e., Carolina winning in TB is not as likely as SF beating the Rams.

Good call. I copied and pasted the odds of each playoff team/contender from each conference and sorted by seeding odds

NFC:
AFC:

I should have added conditional formatting to add to the visual

The 100% just looks so beautiful.

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:47

The 100% just looks so beautiful.

And this time just feels way more fun than the 2011 season did when we had the same dominant win-loss success.

2nd time the Packers are going into the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked.

This is rare air.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:43

I should have added conditional formatting to add to the visual

Let's try this.

NFC: AFC:

BF004 wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:01

BF004 wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 09:59

Should probably be a grid somewhere with all the possibilities.

Here we go, this is what I was talking about.




I guess no one wants the 4 seed, having Arizona first or potentially the Rams, but Dallas looks fairly locked into it.

SF and NO both look like they need to go out and win, Philly locked into 6 or 7.

Even though it shows up in only a few lines, I think the top option is the most likely, and one I like:

2 Rams vs 7 Saints
3 Bucs vs 6 Eagles
4 Cowboys vs 5 Cardinals

That's what happens if the Rams beat the 49ers, the Saints beat the Falcons, the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, and the Bucs beat the Panthers, regardless of who wins the Cowboys-Eagles game.

Now if the 49ers beat the Rams, the possibilities get much more numerous

I feel like they are being a bit generous on the Rams victory there. Looking they are giving about a 66% chance they beat SF. SF hasn't clinched a playoff spot yet, they are gunna bring it. Rams need to win too or they can lose the division yet.

BF004 wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:16

I feel like they are being a bit generous on the Rams victory there. Looking they are giving about a 66% chance they beat SF. SF hasn't clinched a playoff spot yet, they are gunna bring it. Rams need to win too or they can lose the division yet.

They might be using the DVOA adjusted for Trey Lance, not Jimmy G, since Garappolo missed last week and his status is uncertain.

go pak go wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:53

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:47

The 100% just looks so beautiful.

And this time just feels way more fun than the 2011 season did when we had the same dominant win-loss success.

2nd time the Packers are going into the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked.

This is rare air.

One more thing about our clinching the NFL's best record this year... I don't think enough has been made about the fact that the NFC was given the short straw with the introduction of the 17th game, meaning we did what we did despite playing 9 road games.

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:32

go pak go wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:53

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:47

The 100% just looks so beautiful.

And this time just feels way more fun than the 2011 season did when we had the same dominant win-loss success.

2nd time the Packers are going into the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked.

This is rare air.

One more thing about our clinching the NFL's best record this year... I don't think enough has been made about the fact that the NFC was given the short straw with the introduction of the 17th game, meaning we did what we did despite playing 9 road games.

I mean let's be real here.

The 2021 Packers has been the best team on the field in each game after Week 1.

go pak go wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:38

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:32

go pak go wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 10:53

And this time just feels way more fun than the 2011 season did when we had the same dominant win-loss success.

2nd time the Packers are going into the final week of the season with the #1 seed locked.

This is rare air.

One more thing about our clinching the NFL's best record this year... I don't think enough has been made about the fact that the NFC was given the short straw with the introduction of the 17th game, meaning we did what we did despite playing 9 road games.

I mean let's be real here.

The 2021 Packers has been the best team on the field in each game after Week 1.

You have obviously not read/forgotten some of the post-game victory conversations on this board...

APB wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:39

go pak go wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:38

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:32

One more thing about our clinching the NFL's best record this year... I don't think enough has been made about the fact that the NFC was given the short straw with the introduction of the 17th game, meaning we did what we did despite playing 9 road games.

I mean let's be real here.

The 2021 Packers has been the best team on the field in each game after Week 1.

You have obviously not read/forgotten some of the post-game victory conversations on this board...

If I were to summarize the 2021 Packers season board here, I would say it was made of the following:

1. Emotional sarcastic quips during the game. (I am generally the most emotional on this board during the game)
2. Followed by review, analysis, praise, blame, concerns, etc. amongst pretty much all plays, players, position groups etc.
3. Group of people who gets set off by posts that opposes their pet project.
4. DrJ finding any way to bash Jordan Love.
5. yoop hijacking threads and all of us falling victim in the thread hijack at one point or another (others are more guilty of this...including me)
6. Everyone pissing and moaning (and deservedly so) about the historically poor STs.
7. Discussing injuries, being worried about injuries early on, and then injury worry subsiding even though actual injury knew grew worse but "next man up" was so prevalent we don't care much anymore
8. Overall everyone seeing again how special this team is and holding their breath for the final 3 games late January into February.

Number 8 is the biggest one.

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:32

One more thing about our clinching the NFL's best record this year... I don't think enough has been made about the fact that the NFC was given the short straw with the introduction of the 17th game, meaning we did what we did despite playing 9 road games.

I think it's not mentioned much because home field advantage in terms of W/L record this season has been only +4 games for the home team this year and was -1 game for the home team last year. So losing home games isn't considered a large competitive disadvantage.

That said, the Packers are 8-0 at home this year, were 7-1 at home each of the previous two regular seasons, and an additional 2-1 at home in the playoffs, so it definitely does still matter to us.

Wow, just checked.

Including the playoffs, MLF is

41-11 overall, a 78.9% winning rate
24-3 at home, an 88.9% winning rate
17-8 away, a 68.0% winning rate

That is a vast homefield advantage, honestly.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:50

NCF wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022 11:32

One more thing about our clinching the NFL's best record this year... I don't think enough has been made about the fact that the NFC was given the short straw with the introduction of the 17th game, meaning we did what we did despite playing 9 road games.

I think it's not mentioned much because home field advantage in terms of W/L record this season has been only +4 games for the home team this year and was -1 game for the home team last year. So losing home games isn't considered a large competitive disadvantage.

That said, the Packers are 8-0 at home this year, were 7-1 at home each of the previous two regular seasons, and an additional 2-1 at home in the playoffs, so it definitely does still matter to us.

Wow, just checked.

Including the playoffs, MLF is

41-11 overall, a 78.9% winning rate
24-3 at home, an 88.9% winning rate
17-8 away, a 68.0% winning rate

That is a vast homefield advantage, honestly.

I believe the Packers are the only undefeated home team this season. Advantage indeed.