2023 NFL Draft Discussion

[YoHoChecko]

The way I’ll defend my stance on the first round is that when you try to do player comps to past prospects coming out, you’re looking at guess who went significantly later; like 10 to 25 picks later.

It’s evident in WRs, in TEs, in EDGE…

I think Tyree, for instance, is a lower quality prospect than Gary. He’s older, took to his 5th year to break out, had similar size, and will likely be slightly less athletic. Gary went 12th and Tyree is being locked at 5-8. Similar argument about Murphy.

Johnson and Addison are the lowest quality “top WRs in the draft” we’ve seen in ages.

The second-tier CBs strike me the same. We have 3 guys I really like in Witherspoon, Gonzales, and Porter; after that I see guys that are mostly traits—the kind of Kevin King gambles you should take on round two.

I know there are cliches, but there also really are draft classes that yield a bunch of pro bowlers, and classes that bring a decent amount of washouts or the successes are solid players.

This draft feels to me like it has more early risk than average. More boom or bust. The type of risks that usually give you a discount in draft stock.

That said, I see a LOT of those “solid guys unlikely to be pro bowlers.” Second round types, to me.

The correlation of ceiling and certainty has very few high ranking players. The middle of the draft feels like a lot of ceiling but risky or safe but mediocre.

I’d be pretty surprised of Johnson ever leads his NFL team in receiving yards. He’s a complementary piece for me, not a true 1. Michael Mayer isn’t going to be top 5 in TE receiving yards. Maybe I’m wrong. But I’m saying what I see.


All that said, the *deepest* positions in this draft are edge, TE, and probably CB. Two of those net needs. And there are intriguing safeties throughout. Another need. So we can have a great draft class. I just don’t love the value of this class at the top.

[Pckfn23]

I would be very wary about making up your mind on prospects and draft positioning 2 months before the draft...

Yes, there will always be positions of strength and positions of weakness in every draft. It ebbs and flows through the years.

[YoHoChecko]

I would be very wary about making up your mind on prospects and draft positioning 2 months before the draft...

Yes, there will always be positions of strength and positions of weakness in every draft. It ebbs and flows through the years.

I said very openly I may be wrong about such judgments. But I’m not going to stop making them.

I think this draft class is the weakest, at the top, in recent years. There’s nothing nefarious or cliché about saying that. I am comparing it to other years fairly directly. We won’t know the answer for like three years. But I’m not going to wait to make an evaluation until then.

[Pckfn23]

I would be very wary about making up your mind on prospects and draft positioning 2 months before the draft...

Yes, there will always be positions of strength and positions of weakness in every draft. It ebbs and flows through the years.

I said very openly I may be wrong about such judgments. But I’m not going to stop making them.

I think this draft class is the weakest, at the top, in recent years. There’s nothing nefarious or cliché about saying that. I am comparing it to other years fairly directly. We won’t know the answer for like three years. But I’m not going to wait to make an evaluation until then.

No one is saying stop making judgments on players. Just putting out there that it may be too early to say with certainty that a prospect is a lock to be drafted from slots 5-8.

I agree that this is probably a weak top draft. As BF pointed out there are always cliches that tend to be very similar year over year.

[lupedafiasco]

To me Johnston looks like TO. Big dude who is going to win down the field with speed and strength. Johnston definitely has questionable hands but he is pretty dangerous with the ball in his hands for a bigger guy. I think based on his athletic profile he should go top 10 but I can see him sticking around a little longer just because of the QB run we are gonna get this year.

I felt the same about DK but NFL GMs are terrified of taking players with limited skills even if their strengths are off the charts.

[NCF]

I felt the same about DK but NFL GMs are terrified of taking players with limited skills even if their strengths are off the charts.

Yeah, DK was one guy I was not getting talked out of. He's been good, but I still think he could be pretty dominant in the right situation.

[BF004]

Honestly, I don't want OL in the first this year. It's not really a need, especially with Nijman as a RFA.

Maybe not the thread for it, but you think any chance any one bites on Nijman to play LT?

Either offering him a contract while an RFA. OR probably smarter, just offer us a pick so they can control at least the one cheap year and can use that basis for negotiations.

So a team looking to compete, without a lot of $$, and a hole at LT. Getting an average level LT who is still potentially progressing for very cheap could be appealing. Not sure if I can think of a team who fits that. But yeah.

[Pckfn23]

Honestly, I don't want OL in the first this year. It's not really a need, especially with Nijman as a RFA.

Maybe not the thread for it, but you think any chance any one bites on Nijman to play LT?

Either offering him a contract while an RFA. OR probably smarter, just offer us a pick so they can control at least the one cheap year and can use that basis for negotiations.

So a team looking to compete, without a lot of $$, and a hole at LT. Getting an average level LT who is still potentially progressing for very cheap could be appealing. Not sure if I can think of a team who fits that. But yeah.

Sure if Bakhtiari is traded, absolutely look at a tackle. If Nijman leaves... maybe. Good thing we will know before the draft!

[BF004]

Johnson and Addison are the lowest quality “top WRs in the draft” we’ve seen in ages.

Really????

A) Addison is not a top WR, doesn't belong in any top 5. B) 2019 just had a draft with only two WR's going in the first round, Marquise Brown and N'Keal Harry at 25 and 32. Johnston, JSN are definitely better prospects than them. Now I loved AJ Brown that draft, he was always my guys. But I would so far I like Hyatt, Downs and Flowers better than either of those two guys as well.

And I would say actually 2020-2022 were not normal drafts for top WR talents those were all very stacked.

[Scott4Pack]

To me Johnston looks like TO. Big dude who is going to win down the field with speed and strength. Johnston definitely has questionable hands but he is pretty dangerous with the ball in his hands for a bigger guy. I think based on his athletic profile he should go top 10 but I can see him sticking around a little longer just because of the QB run we are gonna get this year.

I felt the same about DK but NFL GMs are terrified of taking players with limited skills even if their strengths are off the charts.

What you said about the QB run… I’m not an expert, for sure. But I’d also be surprised if top drafting teams don’t jump at the available QBs. Many teams there have the need. And many qualified QBs are available. This’ll help the Packers (and other teams below 10 or so) have guys in positions of need that’ll “drop” to them.

Maybe, if we stretch the scenario a bit too, this could fuel Guty’s rare desire to trade so that he can draft up and acquire a 2nd pick in round 1 this year. If the chips fall the right way, of course.

[Scott4Pack]

Honestly, I don't want OL in the first this year. It's not really a need, especially with Nijman as a RFA.

Maybe not the thread for it, but you think any chance any one bites on Nijman to play LT?

Either offering him a contract while an RFA. OR probably smarter, just offer us a pick so they can control at least the one cheap year and can use that basis for negotiations.

So a team looking to compete, without a lot of $$, and a hole at LT. Getting an average level LT who is still potentially progressing for very cheap could be appealing. Not sure if I can think of a team who fits that. But yeah.

Good point. But wouldn’t there likely be a handful of other Ts that also fit that scenario? If we get anything for Nijman, I’d be pleased but totally shocked.

[BF004]

Honestly, I don't want OL in the first this year. It's not really a need, especially with Nijman as a RFA.

Maybe not the thread for it, but you think any chance any one bites on Nijman to play LT?

Either offering him a contract while an RFA. OR probably smarter, just offer us a pick so they can control at least the one cheap year and can use that basis for negotiations.

So a team looking to compete, without a lot of $$, and a hole at LT. Getting an average level LT who is still potentially progressing for very cheap could be appealing. Not sure if I can think of a team who fits that. But yeah.

Good point. But wouldn’t there likely be a handful of other Ts that also fit that scenario? If we get anything for Nijman, I’d be pleased but totally shocked.

Like who? Are there a surplus of competent LT's who aren't liabilities who are cheap?

[lupedafiasco]

I felt the same about DK but NFL GMs are terrified of taking players with limited skills even if their strengths are off the charts.

Yeah, DK was one guy I was not getting talked out of. He's been good, but I still think he could be pretty dominant in the right situation.

If we had DK I’m confident Davante shatters records. DK is the type of receiver that elevates the other guy to the next tier because of his ability to win down the field.

[Backthepack4ever]

I would be kind of upset with a wr early. I don't mind Johnston but not with our 1st pick. I don't see DK or esp TO. I feel more like a Shenault type. Ok maybe not that low but def not a guy in the top 15.

Boutte has the most upside imo. The kid could be special.

Rice is the safest and best hands. Nelson type. He will be faster then his 40 time.

Some of these smaller dudes day 2 could be steals and nice fits to what GB is building.

Going back a few posts but I also like this cb class I think there is talent early and some real gems mid rounds. Guys that will be good players. I could see a CB early and Douglas moved to safety

[YoHoChecko]

I would be kind of upset with a wr early. I don't mind Johnston but not with our 1st pick. I don't see DK or esp TO. I feel more like a Shenault type. Ok maybe not that low but def not a guy in the top 15.

Boutte has the most upside imo. The kid could be special.

Rice is the safest and best hands. Nelson type. He will be faster then his 40 time.

Some of these smaller dudes day 2 could be steals and nice fits to what GB is building.

Going back a few posts but I also like this cb class I think there is talent early and some real gems mid rounds. Guys that will be good players. I could see a CB early and Douglas moved to safety

I don't understand the love for Rice. I mean I see him as a good player--certainly a guy who will be drafted on Day Two and have a place in the league, but it feels like we're ascribing all the best possible versions of that player to him; ok size, smooth not sudden, good routes but not a technique whiz kid. He just screams "solid #2 in the league for several years" to me, which is a fine player to draft; but a weird player to be a Packer fan favorite.

I'm intrigued by Boutte. I haven't looked into him almost at all yet since he wasn't at any of the all star events. In what I consider to be a weak class at the top, he's someone whose fairly consistent placement on Day Two surprises me. I'll be watching him at the combine. Actually, I might start watching him right now to have something more useful to say. At his best, he seems like exactly what we need (dynamic slot guy with enough bulk to play on run downs and participate in blocking). But it sounds like there are some concerns that the ankle injury impacted his explosiveness?

[YoHoChecko]

I'm intrigued by Boutte. I haven't looked into him almost at all yet since he wasn't at any of the all star events. In what I consider to be a weak class at the top, he's someone whose fairly consistent placement on Day Two surprises me. I'll be watching him at the combine. Actually, I might start watching him right now to have something more useful to say. At his best, he seems like exactly what we need (dynamic slot guy with enough bulk to play on run downs and participate in blocking). But it sounds like there are some concerns that the ankle injury impacted his explosiveness?

So I just watched cut-ups from two 2022 games and two 2021 games...

the upside flashes (more in 2021 than 2022) but he just seems like he doesn't care. Concentration drops, runs his route and then just sorta hangs around if the ball doesn't go to him. It's not that he's not playing hard... there's just something about his game that feels weird. Can't explain it better than "it seems like he doesn't care." His Florida St and Tennessee tape is, like, terrible.

Add to that the reports (from his coach) that he was skipping meetings and slacking off his final season at LSU, there's really something to the mental makeup and questioning if he will ever work hard enough to hit his very high potential. There was an injury and then a coaching change and then transfer rumors and then he announced he was coming back for his senior season and then he announced he would skip the bowl game and declare... this past year has been mild chaos. A lot of "getting the whole story" legwork needs to happen on that kid to figure out who he is and what went wrong his final season.

But when he snapped his routes and ran full speed and got the ball and made people miss, he looked excellent. I feel like I'm more confused after a quick study than I was beforehand.

[Backthepack4ever]

I'm intrigued by Boutte. I haven't looked into him almost at all yet since he wasn't at any of the all star events. In what I consider to be a weak class at the top, he's someone whose fairly consistent placement on Day Two surprises me. I'll be watching him at the combine. Actually, I might start watching him right now to have something more useful to say. At his best, he seems like exactly what we need (dynamic slot guy with enough bulk to play on run downs and participate in blocking). But it sounds like there are some concerns that the ankle injury impacted his explosiveness?

So I just watched cut-ups from two 2022 games and two 2021 games...

the upside flashes (more in 2021 than 2022) but he just seems like he doesn't care. Concentration drops, runs his route and then just sorta hangs around if the ball doesn't go to him. It's not that he's not playing hard... there's just something about his game that feels weird. Can't explain it better than "it seems like he doesn't care." His Florida St and Tennessee tape is, like, terrible.

Add to that the reports (from his coach) that he was skipping meetings and slacking off his final season at LSU, there's really something to the mental makeup and questioning if he will ever work hard enough to hit his very high potential. There was an injury and then a coaching change and then transfer rumors and then he announced he was coming back for his senior season and then he announced he would skip the bowl game and declare... this past year has been mild chaos. A lot of "getting the whole story" legwork needs to happen on that kid to figure out who he is and what went wrong his final season.

But when he snapped his routes and ran full speed and got the ball and made people miss, he looked excellent. I feel like I'm more confused after a quick study than I was beforehand.

Thanks for putting in the work. Boutte his frosh year was the next to a nice group look like the future. Pre injury the talent flashed. Injury staff attitude and everything else came into the play the last season. Very confusing I'll never fully blame a coaching staff cuz if you're good you're good but yeah this last year was really bad until late. The talent is there... What's going on up stairs?? Not asking him to be the man I think he can show that crazy talent early. I love the up side (the day2 aj brown dk steal.).

Rice. I man idk what's not to like. I get small school I get doubting some traits before we actually see the numbers but the kid ...1 produced. 2... ;separated and 3 my god hands catcher and attacks the ball. The technician and getting the ball. I'm not asking for him in the first round top 15 I'm saying this kid Adam thielen and maybe more I'll take that all day everyday I'm that hyped about this guy. You add hon to what we believe is room is and wow Jordan love is full of options

[lupedafiasco]

Boutte would be the ultimate Gutenbumst move to take a player who plays like ass and his name is basically butt.

[Backthepack4ever]

Boutte would be the ultimate Gutenbumst move to take a player who plays like ass and his name is basically butt.

I would guess you haven't seen a minute if him in 3 years. Alot of red flags and questions for sure but some wow to work with. This isn't asking for a top 15. After combine if he checks boxes... Which I think he will he teams from 39 to 59 might get a steal.

[YoHoChecko]

Rice. I man idk what's not to like. I get small school I get doubting some traits before we actually see the numbers but the kid ...1 produced. 2... ;separated and 3 my god hands catcher and attacks the ball. The technician and getting the ball. I'm not asking for him in the first round top 15 I'm saying this kid Adam thielen and maybe more I'll take that all day everyday I'm that hyped about this guy. You add hon to what we believe is room is and wow Jordan love is full of options

I disagree that he separates; even against lower level schools there is a TON of contested catch action. He sometimes was able to run by the North Texas or Lamar or Navy CB, but mostly, he's sitting in a zone, which is nice, or he's in a jump ball situation; and he's good at them. I just don't know that he consistently separates against NFL competition and I saw mixed reviews in that regard at the Senior Bowl.

Like I said, good player; has a role. Great hands. But he's not the kind of big (though he is physical) that you can live and die on contested catches in the NFL. Maybe I'm very wrong. But I just don't see consistent separation. Now if he falls to Day 3, I scoop him up at 115 in a heartbeat. I suppose he's a mid third round kind a guy for me.