Packers Huddle

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 09:48

I have my doubts that we cut Campbell, as much as he has sucked the last several years. First, we RARELY post June 1 cut a guy, most teams do not. That would mean the cap savings on this year would be a mere $2.6 million. If he can improve even a bit, we aren't finding a capable LB for $2.6 million against the cap in 2024. Second, and related, with going to a 4-3, we are going to need 3 capable off the ball linebackers. Right now we have 3 in Walker, McDuffie, and Campbell. There are no others on the roster. We are likely to draft one, but coupled with only a $2.6 million cap savings, I don't think this is the year we send Campbell packing.

Bloggin' Andy did a video on this today. It is a net ~$10+m savings if we cut him. He costs like $20m+ if we keep him. Very doubtful that he turns things around enough to justify that figure. In all likelihood, we can find similar quality play from draft picks and even UDFA guys for a fraction of the price. He gone.

Yeah you can't always looks at current year "net savings" beause Campbell is then off the books in 2025.

In theory we could then push another Packer player's cap into 2025 to free up 2024 space that was all created by releasing Campbell.

Campbell was a liablility out there. Forget his contract. He was a worse player than McDuffie and maybe even Eric Wilson. He wasn't great in 2022 either. Campbell now has 8 seasons in the league. He has pretty much been bad in all of them for the exception of one year. When a player tells you who they are....listen to them.

It was a great year. But it's time to move on. And good for Campbell. He got life changing money from the Packers and in return provided us a hell of a season.

If we cut Campbell on March 14th, his $2.9 million roster bonus does not kick in. He costs us $11,628,000 in dead cap and saves us $2,602,532. If we wait until post-June 1 to cut him, which I doubt, it is distributed as follows:
2024 Dead Cap: $3,657,000
2025 Dead Cap: $7,971,000
2024 Cap Savings: $10,573,532

Keeping him in 2024 will cost $10,750,000 in extra cash, if workout and game bonuses all hit. If we forget the cap/money, which obviously does play a roll, is his poor play the result of injury? Is it a result of a passive Barry defense? I would be inclined to stick it out 1 more year, especially considering the likely move to a 4-3.

He looked slow last year. He looked slow this year. He also just made dumb mental decisions.

If a guy like Wilson can come in and I don't notice...I am prepared to roll with anyone else as a Weak or Strong side LB and be A-okay with it.

go pak go wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 12:26

He looked slow last year. He looked slow this year. He also just made dumb mental decisions.

If a guy like Wilson can come in and I don't notice...I am prepared to roll with anyone else as a Weak or Strong side LB and be A-okay with it.

according to reports he was injured early last season and never fully recovered, if true I'd believe that had a affect, as to making poor decisions, couldn't be any worse then Walker at times, I'd like to bring in a stud UFA or even possibly trade for one, but we have other secondary positions I'd like to do the same, can't afford to buy to many.

I want to see a leap from Walker, little better coverage, little less over pursuing, know how to read the offense, always say if ya want a LBer to be your defensive Captain, be Mic up, read and set the defense, probably take a couple seasons, he struggled last year, didn't Barry take the head phone away? give it back to Campbell? whatever, just think Walker has the athletics to be better then he has.

Yoop wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 14:53

go pak go wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 12:26

He looked slow last year. He looked slow this year. He also just made dumb mental decisions.

If a guy like Wilson can come in and I don't notice...I am prepared to roll with anyone else as a Weak or Strong side LB and be A-okay with it.

according to reports he was injured early last season and never fully recovered, if true I'd believe that had a affect, as to making poor decisions, couldn't be any worse then Walker at times, I'd like to bring in a stud UFA or even possibly trade for one, but we have other secondary positions I'd like to do the same, can't afford to buy to many.

I want to see a leap from Walker, little better coverage, little less over pursuing, know how to read the offense, always say if ya want a LBer to be your defensive Captain, be Mic up, read and set the defense, probably take a couple seasons, he struggled last year, didn't Barry take the head phone away? give it back to Campbell? whatever, just think Walker has the athletics to be better then he has.

Crazy where you take conversations.

You quote me about Campbell. Say 3 words about Campbell and then 2 paragraphs about a completely different player.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 12:13

If we cut Campbell on March 14th, his $2.9 million roster bonus does not kick in. He costs us $11,628,000 in dead cap and saves us $2,602,532. If we wait until post-June 1 to cut him, which I doubt, it is distributed as follows:
2024 Dead Cap: $3,657,000
2025 Dead Cap: $7,971,000
2024 Cap Savings: $10,573,532

Keeping him in 2024 will cost $10,750,000 in extra cash, if workout and game bonuses all hit. If we forget the cap/money, which obviously does play a roll, is his poor play the result of injury? Is it a result of a passive Barry defense? I would be inclined to stick it out 1 more year, especially considering the likely move to a 4-3.

I haven't heard anybody say how much injury might've played a role in 2023 (and maybe even 2022). Have you? Did Herman say?

If the bottom line is that he will cost 2.6M to us if we cut him at the right time, maybe that decision would be made if we acquire the right replacement. Like you said, it takes 3. Walker would get the most snaps. McDuffie might start the season slow coming back from injury. But Campbell would likely get plenty of snaps based on his salary alone.

This could be a classic argument on a team. The GM says, "I'm not getting my money's worth if the guy is on the bench." And the HC says, "He isn't playing up to par and I have a guy who is." So how do you solve that conundrum?

He's old enough that he garners no trade interest. Now he has a injury history. And then there is some regression to the mean of before he joined the Packers anyhow. He is not in a good place. That said, I hope he comes out fresh and plays a good year for us.

To me, the question is: do I want to bet ~$20m+ on Campbell's play improving (enough to justify that price-tag)?

Sure, it's plausible that his play was affected by injury, and that he would look better if he was playing healthy. Yet would I bet on him or against him, with $10-20m riding on my bet? I would bet against, sadly.

Labrev wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:28

To me, the question is: do I want to bet ~$20m+ on Campbell's play improving (enough to justify that price-tag)?

Sure, it's plausible that his play was affected by injury, and that he would look better if he was playing healthy. Yet would I bet on him or against him, with $10-20m riding on my bet? I would bet against, sadly.

Sure. How many players are you going to make that same decision? Watson? Stokes? Jaire? Walker didn't play every game either. Savage. Dillon.

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:41

Labrev wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:28

To me, the question is: do I want to bet ~$20m+ on Campbell's play improving (enough to justify that price-tag)?

Sure, it's plausible that his play was affected by injury, and that he would look better if he was playing healthy. Yet would I bet on him or against him, with $10-20m riding on my bet? I would bet against, sadly.

Sure. How many players are you going to make that same decision? Watson? Stokes? Jaire? Walker didn't play every game either. Savage. Dillon.

The operative part of the decision is the money, not my confidence in the player. I'd bet on Campbell if it was $4m at stake. $20m? No.

Labrev wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:45

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:41

Labrev wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:28

To me, the question is: do I want to bet ~$20m+ on Campbell's play improving (enough to justify that price-tag)?

Sure, it's plausible that his play was affected by injury, and that he would look better if he was playing healthy. Yet would I bet on him or against him, with $10-20m riding on my bet? I would bet against, sadly.

Sure. How many players are you going to make that same decision? Watson? Stokes? Jaire? Walker didn't play every game either. Savage. Dillon.

The operative part of the decision is the money, not my confidence in the player. I'd bet on Campbell if it was $4m at stake. $20m? No.

Where is this $20 million number coming from?

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:58

Labrev wrote: ↑

08 Feb 2024 16:45

The operative part of the decision is the money, not my confidence in the player. I'd bet on Campbell if it was $4m at stake. $20m? No.

Where is this $20 million number coming from?

We pay ~$11m cut him or keep him. If we keep him it's an additional ~$10m. But I will admit cap stuff is a little wonky to me.

Assuming my numbers check out though, if we keep him, we are (in my mind) wagering ~$20-21m on his performance.

That's the kind of money paid in a year to the Top-3 LBers. We need Roquan Smith- or Fred Warner-caliber play for him to justify that amount.

He did play pretty close to that level one year, so it would not be totally grasping at straws to think he can do it, but do I feel confident enough in it happening to wager roughly 20 mil? Not even remotely.

Labrev, if that number you have is correct, wouldn't that likely be renegotiated before next season?

I don’t see much drop off from Campbell to McDuffie. Cut your losses now so we don’t deal with the consequences next year. Otherwise it will be the same conversation about dead cap vs savings. I feel like I say this every year but at some point we just need to take our medicine and clear off these bad contracts and void years.

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

10 Feb 2024 13:22

I don’t see much drop off from Campbell to McDuffie. Cut your losses now so we don’t deal with the consequences next year. Otherwise it will be the same conversation about dead cap vs savings. I feel like I say this every year but at some point we just need to take our medicine and clear off these bad contracts and void years.

McDuffie is an improvement over Campbell.

A large paycheck almost guarantees that a guy in Campbell's position will be kept. A guy who is now perhaps less than par with a big check is still a guy a team will pay, unless there is a young and ascending player they absolutely need to make room for.

Campbell will stay in 2024. That's almost a given. Let's hope for the best.

Jersey Al over on CheeseheadTV linked this article from 2020 explaining "vision and break" defense:

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-sta ... verage?amp