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2024 - 2026 we will see the cap window start opening up for us again.
Agreed
And that coincides with a huge leap in the TV money hitting the salary cap and growing the annual totals from $224M this year to over $308M in 2026 per the projections at OTC. My guess is the league will blow right through those projections and the actual numbers will be even higher with an added boost from gambling.
The whole "TV Deals" thing only matters for contracts signed right now.
Relying on future TV cap space doesn't much since the other 31 teams also have cap opened and it simply means each contract will get more expensive. No real net benefit to the team being able to sign more or higher quality players.
Last edited by go pak go on 17 Oct 2023 13:41, edited 1 time in total.
The biggest thing about cap is the ability to defer cap to future years.
We can still sign Love to a large deal but open a 3 year window of low cap hit. It's how the Chiefs operated with Mahommes.
The issue with GB in 2021 and 2022 is that we were at the end of the cap deferral window and didn't have many options to defer future cap left. In addition, we were eating dead cap in 22 and 23 on cash spent on contracts in 2019 - 2022.
2024 - 2026 we will see the cap window start opening up for us again.
fine, but we still could have traded draft picks for players at needed positions like WR, we pushed cap dollars to win in the Rodgers window, and skimped at the position that scores points, say what you want but that never made a lic of sense to me.
No real net benefit to the team being able to sign more or higher quality players.
big picture - you are correct - the rising tide lifts all boats
However - If you look at the youth of the Packers roster- GB doesn't have a lengthy list of vets that need re-signing ( yet)
So the added cap growth + super young team does create a net benefit to the 2024 - 2026 Packers vs other squads who have a bevy of vets to pay GB has drafted 33 players (!) over the last 3 drafts - so they are a bit of an anomaly vs other teams and that difference may convey an advantage going forward into the new money era.
Unfortunately, all the cap space they’d realize with QB1 on his rookie deal evaporated the moment they traded former QB1 and took on all his dead cap hit.
Yeah - I wouldn't worry about the " rookie QB contract" stuff too much.
You can take a stroll through the lists below to see all of the QBs drafted over the last decade+ and there's only 1 SB Champion with a QB on a rookie deal. KC/Mahomes in 2020- a transcendent HOF-worthy QB coached by a HOF-worthy offensive guru.
Unfortunately, the rookie QB deal is just an oft-repeated meme with little basis in reality. 1 out of 25 QBs drafted won a Title while on a rookie deal doesn't seem like the path to success some imagine it to be. As Andrew Brandt astutely noted, it doesn't matter how much you pay a QB - what matters is that he performs commensurate with the deal he signed.
It's an interesting phenomenon based around cheaper talent and to an extent there is some truth to it:
2022 - Hurts lost it
2021 - Borrow lost it
2020 - Mahomes lost it
2019 - Mahomes won it
2018 - Goff lost it
2015 - Newton lost it
2014 - Wilson lost it
2013 - Wilson won it
2012 - Flacco won it, Kaepernick lost it
2007 - Manning won it
2006 - Grossman lost it
2005 - Roethlisberger won it
2001 - Brady won it
If we include Super Bowl participants then it gets a little more interesting. From 2001 to 2011, 4 QBs on rookie deals made it to the Super Bowl. 2012 to 2022 that number is 10. While the winning is similar for those 2 periods, the getting there is much higher. Now, that said Mahomes blew the 13.4% rule out of the water, so that kind of flies in the face of it.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
The biggest thing about cap is the ability to defer cap to future years.
We can still sign Love to a large deal but open a 3 year window of low cap hit. It's how the Chiefs operated with Mahommes.
The issue with GB in 2021 and 2022 is that we were at the end of the cap deferral window and didn't have many options to defer future cap left. In addition, we were eating dead cap in 22 and 23 on cash spent on contracts in 2019 - 2022.
2024 - 2026 we will see the cap window start opening up for us again.
fine, but we still could have traded draft picks for players at needed positions like WR, we pushed cap dollars to win in the Rodgers window, and skimped at the position that scores points, say what you want but that never made a lic of sense to me.
Why haven't you mentioned this before?
This is the first I've heard of this!
I couldn't or didn't bother, simply agreed when others here said it, seriously does it matter how we got better talent then the jags we had, the point is we did neither.
Thanks for the leg work on this one, greatly appreciated.
So my new take-home message on the topic is that if you want to win a participation trophy, then QBs on a rookie contract are a decent bet.
QBs and year in their career they won it:
Mahomes - Year 7
Stafford - Year 13
Brady - Year 22
Mahomes - Year 4
Brady - Year 20
Foles - Year 6
Brady - Year 18
Manning - Year 18
Brady - Year 16
Wilson - Year 2
Flacco - Year 5
Manning - Year 8
Rodgers - Year 6
Brees - Year 9
Roethlisberger - Year 5
Manning - Year 4
Manning - Year 9
Roethlisberger - Year 2
Brady - Year 5
Brady - Year 4
Johnson - Year 9
Brady - Year 2
Dilfer - Year 7
23 years this century, 12 are outside of this 6 year window. 11 are within this 6 year window.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Rodgers won his SB in his 5th season, just saying.
You can say it, but you are 100% wrong.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 - won Super Bowl
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Really interesting thread, click the tweet and read through, not the article:
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Unfortunately, all the cap space they’d realize with QB1 on his rookie deal evaporated the moment they traded former QB1 and took on all his dead cap hit.
First of all, Love isn't even playing on his rookie deal anymore. And in addition the Packers currently can't take advantage of him not accounting for a huge amount of cap hit as they spent the most cap space in the league on the QB position when you include Rodgers' dead money.
As Andrew Brandt astutely noted, it doesn't matter how much you pay a QB - what matters is that he performs commensurate with the deal he signed.
I respect Brandt a lot but that is a strange thing to say. If you have two quarterbacks performing at the same level it makes a huge difference if one of them has a cap hit of $4.4 million like Love or $37.1 million like Mahomes this season.
Unfortunately, all the cap space they’d realize with QB1 on his rookie deal evaporated the moment they traded former QB1 and took on all his dead cap hit.
First of all, Love isn't even playing on his rookie deal anymore. And in addition the Packers currently can't take advantage of him not accounting for a huge amount of cap hit as they spent the most cap space in the league on the QB position when you include Rodgers' dead money.
That's not a smart way to handle the cap.
Love is currently playing the 4th year of his rookie contract. To my knowledge, those numbers remain unchanged.
Yes, the Packers signed him to a 1 yr extension in lieu of the 5th year rookie contract option which runs through next year. The unorthodox 1 yr extension was done more for protecting the organization from excess guaranteed money in his 5th year but the actual numbers, if Love earns all incentives, are not significantly different from what they would have been had they simply exercised the 5th year option.
It's contractual semantics, in essence.
Your second point is repeating the very point I already made. I guess...we agree?
The Packers maxed out the cap trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP- that was a worthy effort. MVPs are very well paid, there's just no way around that. As a result - GB now has in excess of $60M in dead cap from all the cash they previously pushed into the future.
Once that clears in 2024, GB is in a great spot and has a wealth of inexpensive youth to develop and cap flexibility going forward
Take a look at the post-Brees Saints who are still looking at $30M in dead money even through Brees retired in 2021. Look at the he post- Manning Broncos who totally suck, the post-Brady Pats or the post- Brady Bucs who are staring at a whopping $77M in Dead money...really any team moving on from an elite QB. Its not easy. GB is handling that very difficult $$ transition as well as any team.
Jordan Love is under contract for 2023 & 2024 at very cheap rates, coming in a # 20 in the QB payouts which is exactly where the rookie QBs are slotted.
So the Packers will have cleared the massive dead cap from MVP Rodgers and still have another season of low-cost Love. More importantly, OTC slots Jordan Love's performance value at $25M/yr, while GB is absorbing only a $4.4 M cap hit in 2023 and a measly $7.7M cap hit in 2024.
So GB not only survived the transition from Rodgers, they also have a talented starting QB on a cheap deal.
The Packers maxed out the cap trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP- that was a worthy effort. MVPs are very well paid, there's just no way around that. As a result - GB now has in excess of $60M in dead cap from all the cash they previously pushed into the future.
Once that clears in 2024, GB is in a great spot and has a wealth of inexpensive youth to develop and cap flexibility going forward
Take a look at the post-Brees Saints who are still looking at $30M in dead money even through Brees retired in 2021. Look at the he post- Manning Broncos who totally suck, the post-Brady Pats or the post- Brady Bucs who are staring at a whopping $77M in Dead money...really any team moving on from an elite QB. Its not easy. GB is handling that very difficult $$ transition as well as any team.
Jordan Love is under contract for 2023 & 2024 at very cheap rates, coming in a # 20 in the QB payouts which is exactly where the rookie QBs are slotted.
So the Packers will have cleared the massive dead cap from MVP Rodgers and still have another season of low-cost Love. More importantly, OTC slots Jordan Love's performance value at $25M/yr, while GB is absorbing only a $4.4 M cap hit in 2023 and a measly $7.7M cap hit in 2024.
So GB not only survived the transition from Rodgers, they also have a talented starting QB on a cheap deal.
right on, I never understood all the hand wringing over this, no one was complaining very much when Rodgers got the contract, other then the few who thought he sucked since like forever around here.
If Love pans out he'll make more then Rodgers ever got on his second deal.
