Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison

[MY_TAKE]

Yeah, we got $63 million in cap not playing between Aaron and Bak.

We’ve been playing without Bak, Jenkins, Watson and Jones, literally all our best players.

It hasn’t looked good lately, but no one thought it would.

Some combo of Gute, Lafleur and Love got about 15 months to figure it all out. But this year was never about this year.

I think people are feeling negative right now. I think after the opening game against the bears, alot of Packer fans (myself included) were feeling good about the season.
Yes you are right about the injuries too some of the best players on the roster. Injuries and !@#$ poor play have sucked the air out of the room lately.

I am thinking let see what happens against Denver coming off a bye. If they crap the bed and go 2-4, its looking mostly like a miserable season. IF they win and look good, maybe there is hope, even if its against the Broncos.
Obviously most expected a downgrade at QB in Love's first year starting. I personally thought I saw enough in Watson and Doubs lasts year, that a year two improvement jump would mitigate the downgrade in QB play, and we could compete for a wild card spot. Packers need to play better in every facet of the game. I'm still waiting to see.

[CWIMM]

Love is currently playing the 4th year of his rookie contract. To my knowledge, those numbers remain unchanged.

Yes, the Packers signed him to a 1 yr extension in lieu of the 5th year rookie contract option which runs through next year. The unorthodox 1 yr extension was done more for protecting the organization from excess guaranteed money in his 5th year but the actual numbers, if Love earns all incentives, are not significantly different from what they would have been had they simply exercised the 5th year option.

It's contractual semantics, in essence.

Your second point is repeating the very point I already made. I guess...we agree?

My point is that drafting a quarterback in the first round and have him sit on the bench for three years isn't a smart way to handle the cap with a rookie wage scale in place.

The Packers actually added a cap hit of $1.75 million to his 2023 number when they extended him for another year in the offseason. In addition the deal includes three void years which will result in cap hit of $5.25 million at some point.

At this point he would only make $1 million of a possible $9 million in incentives which would result in a low cap hit for 2024. Nevertheless smart teams try to take advantage of a starting QB on a cheap rookie deal for more than one year. The Packers didn't go that route though.

Jordan Love is under contract for 2023 & 2024 at very cheap rates, coming in a # 20 in the QB payouts which is exactly where the rookie QBs are slotted.

https://overthecap.com/contracts

So the Packers will have cleared the massive dead cap from MVP Rodgers and still have another season of low-cost Love. More importantly, OTC slots Jordan Love's performance value at $25M/yr, while GB is absorbing only a $4.4 M cap hit in 2023 and a measly $7.7M cap hit in 2024.

Currently Love isn't playing at a level that would justify a performance value of $25 million by any means.

[LombardiTime]

It's contractual semantics, in essence.

Indeed

The Packers maxed out the cap trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP- that was a worthy effort. MVPs are very well paid, there's just no way around that. As a result - GB now has in excess of $60M in dead cap from all the cash they previously pushed into the future.

So GB not only survived the transition from Rodgers, they also have a talented starting QB on a cheap deal.

The Packers lost, at home, in a divisional round playoff game to SF in January of 2022. The offense performed poorly in that contest, the latest in a string of playoff disappointments. Some primarily blamed Rodgers others blamed the lack of receivers outside of Davante Adams but no one disputed the poor performance.

In March of 2022, the Packers gave Rodgers, who was already under contract, an expensive contract extension. The team's current cap issues were made significantly worse by that extension.

The Packers traded away Adams shortly after Rodgers was extended.

The Packers then "replaced" Adams with a couple of rookies and Sammy Watkins.

If the Packers plan in 2022 was to "max out the cap" while "trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP" who would be relying on a group of untalented (Watkins, Cobb, A. Rodgers, Tonyan) or inexperienced (Watson, Doubs) pass catchers it was a foreseeable failure.

I find it hard to believe that any Packer fan could still view the contract extension given to Rodgers in March of 2022 as "a worthy effort" rather than a grave mistake that has contributed mightily to the team's current cap issues.

Moreover, the significant dead cap has had negative ramifications on the roster in 2023, ramifications that appear to be negatively impacting the development of the team generally and of the (hopefully) "talented QB on a cheap deal" specifically.

At 2-3, with a lot of questions swirling around the head coach, the starting QB, and the roster, I'd say it is a tad early to be proclaiming that the Packers "survived the transition from Rodgers."

[Yoop]

If the Packers plan in 2022 was to "max out the cap" while "trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP" who would be relying on a group of untalented (Watkins, Cobb, A. Rodgers, Tonyan) or inexperienced (Watson, Doubs) pass catchers it was a foreseeable failure.

I find it hard to believe that any Packer fan could still view the contract extension given to Rodgers in March of 2022 as "a worthy effort" rather than a grave mistake that has contributed mightily to the team's current cap issues.

you neglect to mention the plan also included having Adams to add to Lazard, Watson, Cobb etc. Adams was the guy who walked, we sure didn't push him out the door.

IMHO the plan was sound till Adams bolted, even after that the Acquisition of Watson was a poor attempt at a replacement, thats a Guty fail, if your going to spend what we did on Rodgers then ya have to do what it takes for him to have a better number one receiver then we gave him

[bud fox]

It's contractual semantics, in essence.

Indeed

The Packers maxed out the cap trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP- that was a worthy effort. MVPs are very well paid, there's just no way around that. As a result - GB now has in excess of $60M in dead cap from all the cash they previously pushed into the future.

So GB not only survived the transition from Rodgers, they also have a talented starting QB on a cheap deal.

The Packers lost, at home, in a divisional round playoff game to SF in January of 2022. The offense performed poorly in that contest, the latest in a string of playoff disappointments. Some primarily blamed Rodgers others blamed the lack of receivers outside of Davante Adams but no one disputed the poor performance.

In March of 2022, the Packers gave Rodgers, who was already under contract, an expensive contract extension. The team's current cap issues were made significantly worse by that extension.

The Packers traded away Adams shortly after Rodgers was extended.

The Packers then "replaced" Adams with a couple of rookies and Sammy Watkins.

If the Packers plan in 2022 was to "max out the cap" while "trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP" who would be relying on a group of untalented (Watkins, Cobb, A. Rodgers, Tonyan) or inexperienced (Watson, Doubs) pass catchers it was a foreseeable failure.

I find it hard to believe that any Packer fan could still view the contract extension given to Rodgers in March of 2022 as "a worthy effort" rather than a grave mistake that has contributed mightily to the team's current cap issues.

Moreover, the significant dead cap has had negative ramifications on the roster in 2023, ramifications that appear to be negatively impacting the development of the team generally and of the (hopefully) "talented QB on a cheap deal" specifically.

At 2-3, with a lot of questions swirling around the head coach, the starting QB, and the roster, I'd say it is a tad early to be proclaiming that the Packers "survived the transition from Rodgers."

Rodgers was back to back mvp.

Played bucs in play-offs in which outplayed the other qb.
Played sf in play-offs he outplayed other qb. Special teams let us down.

[Pckfn23]

Why do you believe outplaying the other teams' QB is the measure of success, regardless of anything else?

[Labrev]

Jordan Love outplayed Pat Mahomes, best QB in the league!! Ergo, it is everybody else's fault that KC won.

[bud fox]

Jordan Love outplayed Pat Mahomes, best QB in the league!! Ergo, it is everybody else's fault that KC won.

No he didn't. He looked absolutely horrible until chiefs had it in the bag.

[bud fox]

Why do you believe outplaying the other teams' QB is the measure of success, regardless of anything else?

Because if everyone outplays the opposing same position player you win.

SF 0 points at half. Kick off 3rd qtr 45 yard return leads to fg.

They then had a punt block return for td.

Packers last series penalty and then completion miss miss.

49ers kick goal.

[Pckfn23]

Why do you believe outplaying the other teams' QB is the measure of success, regardless of anything else?

Because if everyone outplays the opposing same position player you win.

Interesting way to look at it, especially considering the opposing same players don't ever interact on the field. Also, considering outplaying could still mean the tallest midget.

[Labrev]

Jordan Love outplayed Pat Mahomes, best QB in the league!! Ergo, it is everybody else's fault that KC won.

No he didn't. He looked absolutely horrible until chiefs had it in the bag.

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

[Yoop]

Why do you believe outplaying the other teams' QB is the measure of success, regardless of anything else?

Because if everyone outplays the opposing same position player you win.

SF 0 points at half. Kick off 3rd qtr 45 yard return leads to fg.

They then had a punt block return for td.

Packers last series penalty and then completion miss miss.

49ers kick goal.

I thought the point you made was spot on, Rodgers always did enough for us to win, the supporting cast rarely did, people dispute this for many reasons, none merit the energy to even discuss, there either defending the FO or just feel like being contrite.

[bud fox]

Jordan Love outplayed Pat Mahomes, best QB in the league!! Ergo, it is everybody else's fault that KC won.

No he didn't. He looked absolutely horrible until chiefs had it in the bag.

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

1 td, 1 int, 1 fumble, 69.5 rating - Love
1 td, 0 int, 0 fumble, 74.8 rating - mahomes

Yeah he outplayed him in stats.

Love also had one of the worst first half ratings of all time from memory and scored the td with 4 mins left in the game.

[Labrev]

No he didn't. He looked absolutely horrible until chiefs had it in the bag.

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

1 td, 1 int, 1 fumble, 69.5 rating - Love
1 td, 0 int, 0 fumble, 74.8 rating - mahomes

Yeah he outplayed him in stats.

Love also had one of the worst first half ratings of all time from memory and scored the td with 4 mins left in the game.

So the team needs to "help out" an elite QB going up against the mediocre Jimmy G.

But no such expectation to help a QB in his first-ever start, going up against *the best* QB, and no mention of how the ST or OL played very poorly (ST arguably costing us the game).

Seems pretty, I dunno... backwards? I tend to think an elite QB should need less help to best a mediocre one, and a green QB should be supported more going up against the best guy, but that's just me.

[Drj820]

Love is entering a critical stretch in his career. He’s post bye week now, it’s time to show a leap forward. Seeing that I know his receivers suck, I just want to see him protect the ball. Let us win games on the back of the defense and Anders…don’t just throw us into losses via turnovers. If the awful turnovers keep happening, we very well may draft another qb. I don’t care what his stats are, Il defend Love if he cuts the turnovers out.

[bud fox]

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

1 td, 1 int, 1 fumble, 69.5 rating - Love
1 td, 0 int, 0 fumble, 74.8 rating - mahomes

Yeah he outplayed him in stats.

Love also had one of the worst first half ratings of all time from memory and scored the td with 4 mins left in the game.

So the team needs to "help out" an elite QB going up against the mediocre Jimmy G.

But no such expectation to help a QB in his first-ever start, going up against *the best* QB, and no mention of how the ST or OL played very poorly (ST arguably costing us the game).

Seems pretty, I dunno... backwards? I tend to think an elite QB should need less help to best a mediocre one, and a green QB should be supported more going up against the best guy, but that's just me.

What are you talking about ... you were wrong.

Yeah 4 time mvp highest rated passer of all time, Sb mvp, Sb winner was the one getting help and not helping.

Logical

[BF004]

No he didn't. He looked absolutely horrible until chiefs had it in the bag.

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

1 td, 1 int, 1 fumble, 69.5 rating - Love
1 td, 0 int, 0 fumble, 74.8 rating - mahomes

Yeah he outplayed him in stats.

Love also had one of the worst first half ratings of all time from memory and scored the td with 4 mins left in the game.

Without looking up the stats myself, this just does seem like a total random assortment of cherry picked and concealed stats to support an agenda. Not sure I’ve ever seen just those 4 stats shown to describe anyone’s performance.

As evidenced by the last sentence could have been written, ‘he saved his best plays for the most clutch time in a close game’. But agenda and all.

[bud fox]

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

1 td, 1 int, 1 fumble, 69.5 rating - Love
1 td, 0 int, 0 fumble, 74.8 rating - mahomes

Yeah he outplayed him in stats.

Love also had one of the worst first half ratings of all time from memory and scored the td with 4 mins left in the game.

Without looking up the stats myself, this just does seem like a total random assortment of cherry picked and concealed stats to support an agenda. Not sure I’ve ever seen just those 4 stats shown to describe anyone’s performance.

As evidenced by the last sentence could have been written, ‘he saved his best plays for the most clutch time in a close game’. But agenda and all.

Show whatever stats you want but td int and rating are always used.

Rating is essentially all you need.

[CWIMM]

That does not contradict what I said. He outplayed Mahomes. Go check the stat-line!

1 td, 1 int, 1 fumble, 69.5 rating - Love
1 td, 0 int, 0 fumble, 74.8 rating - mahomes

Yeah he outplayed him in stats.

Love also had one of the worst first half ratings of all time from memory and scored the td with 4 mins left in the game.

So the team needs to "help out" an elite QB going up against the mediocre Jimmy G.

But no such expectation to help a QB in his first-ever start, going up against *the best* QB, and no mention of how the ST or OL played very poorly (ST arguably costing us the game).

Seems pretty, I dunno... backwards? I tend to think an elite QB should need less help to best a mediocre one, and a green QB should be supported more going up against the best guy, but that's just me.

You literally suggested to check the stats to see that Love outplayed Mahomes. When proven wrong you focus on something completely different.

[musclestang]

touchdowns, turnovers and ratings are hardly random stats. They're used all the time. They pretty much make up the bulk of every QB rating system out there. If you tell me I have to pick between a QB throwing for 350 yards per game or 250 per game, I want to know how many TD's come with that and how many TO's. Because i really don't care too much about the yards at that point.