Packers Huddle

Christo wrote: ↑

18 Mar 2021 21:11

You do realize Rodgers loves the guy, as do the rest of his teammates.

Yes, I kinda alluded to that where I mentioned him being a leader.

Rodgers also loved Ruvell Martin and Jake Kumerow, what's your point?

As for being slow as molasses, nobody's asking him to run 25 yard out routes.

So he limits what we can do on offense when he's out there. Cool?

Right now you have Tonyan [ 1 good year ] Deguara [ coming off a knee injury ] and Sternberger who can't stay healthy.
I think there's a place for Lewis.

I am not worried about Tonyan; I see no compelling reason to doubt that he is a capable starter. If anything, I feel like Rodgers should have looked his way more and made his 1 good year even better than it was (especially against a certain team that took away Adams in the end-zone, ahem).

Don't forget Dafney, who was given a lot of responsibilities when we bumped him up and he handled them quite well. Sternberger and Deguara are both high draft-picks to compete for TE3 or we keep both. Also, 1-dimensional blocking TEs can be found in the UDFA pool every year. Come to think of it, we do have one such guy in Issac Nauta. All told, I think the depth be more than adequate if Lewis walks.

I'd just rather use that roster spot on a developmental player with some upside and/or 'Teams value now.

Totally forgot we had Nauta under contract for this year. There's one blocking TE option, and finding cheap competition for him in camp won't be hard.

In a normal cap year I'd be all for throwing 3 or 4M at Lewis, if that's what it took to make him happy, and not worry about it. There were times Lewis successfully 1-1 blocked DEs and OLBs, that's rare even for blocking TEs. There's value in that and in his leadership. But this year we don't have a couple of million of loose cap space. It's unfortunate. We'll see if Lewis comes down in his salary demands if his hopes at a raise fail.

I think otherwise I like the roles of the TEs:
- Tonyan is the starting all-around/pass catching TE, and Sterny is an athletically similar backup. Year 3 was when I expected Jace to make a jump, and that time is now. I hope he learns the little things from Tonyan.
- Deguara and Dafney are the TE/FBs. Deguara obviously the more athletic one, but Dafney wasn't a liability when forced out there.
- Nauta is the blocking in-line TE. We'll add either Lewis or someone cheap as competition for that role.

I would hope Nauta can come in play well, but hasn't he been cut like 3 times? He is a wildcard for sure.

I'm not sure we can't have the best of both worlds. Sign him to a 2 yr deal with a signing bonus that gives him the extra cash he's looking for albeit with the 2nd yr being almost completely voidable.

I believe the vet minimum for Lewis is $1.05 mil. He made $2.25 last year, right? So a 2 yr vet min deal with a $1.5 mil signing bonus would do it with only $750,000 dead cap next year.

There is also the veteran benefit exemption under the salary cap that could be used on a new contract. I don't remember the details of the exemption but I do recall you can sign a qualified vet to a 1 yr deal while only counting minimum against the cap.

Looks like we would be able to use this for both Aaron Jones and Mercedes Lewis.

I noticed we are about $3.9 million under the cap based on top 51 now which conflicts reports where we were like $1 million under the cap two days ago. I am betting or wondering we slapped this designation on guys like Mason Crosby last year to get us that boost.

And there's a new "Veteran Salary Benefit" that allows a team to re-sign up to two of its own players per year (provided they have at least four years of service time) and exclude as much as $1.25 million of each player's base salary from each year's salary cap. Here's an example: Let's say you're a four-year veteran on the Jets, and they want to re-sign you. They can offer you a one-year, $6.25 million deal, and only $5 million of it will count against their salary cap if they designated you as one of their two VSB exceptions. If you left and signed with, say, the Patriots, for one year and $6.25 million, the Patriots will have to count all $6.25 million against their cap. It's sort of a starter version of the NBA's midlevel exception rule, as I understand it.

salmar80 wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 01:28

- Deguara and Dafney are the TE/FBs. Deguara obviously the more athletic one, but Dafney wasn't a liability when forced out there.

It's not nearly as obvious as you would be led to believe. Dafney is a freak.

Dafney projects as an H-back, however, which is the position he played during a brief stint with the Indianapolis Colts in training camp. Notably, Dafney’s athletic gifts are impressive for players at that position. He reportedly ran the 40-yard dash in 4.61 seconds at the Sycamores’ Pro Day and added excellent times of 4.19 in the short shuttle and 6.91 in the 3-cone drill. Those numbers give him RAS values of 8.15 (out of 10) at tight end and 9.62 at fullback.

While Dafney is unlikely to contribute immediately, he should provide some insurance behind Lovett, who becomes the Packers’ primary “F” tight end with Deguara out for the year.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2020 ... tice-squad

I think people are misreading this. I view it much more that if we don't have to defer cap into 2022...why would we? It frees us to make a move in 2022 instead to have a somewhat more manageable cap for Rodgers while probably pushing that "trigger point" in 2023.

I also don't get Mike Tanenbaum's comment of "maybe I will go somewhere else where I am more appreciated"...like you do realize you just said this Mike after Greeney point out Rodgers is the player with the highest cap hit in 2021 right?

It still doesn't make much contract sense to get rid of him after this year.

From the time we drafted Love and through on until right now, I have always said that the most logical plan, based on the PREVIOUS Rodgers restructure (which happened less than 6 months before Love was selected), Rodgers is definitely here for 2020 and 2021 and very probably for 2022.

2023 is the first time it MAKES SENSE to move on from Rodgers, financially. In 2022 it is do-able, but still not logical.

This is more of the continuation of attempting to make a current story out of a future story.

Plus, they seem to be talking about voidable year extensions, which the player has to agree to, and ignoring the simple restructure, which the team has the right to execute without him. So their facts aren't even quite accurate when talking about it from the player and team perspective.

go pak go wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 12:19

I think people are misreading this. I view it much more that if we don't have to defer cap into 2022...why would we? It frees us to make a move in 2022 instead to have a somewhat more manageable cap for Rodgers while probably pushing that "trigger point" in 2023.

I also don't get Mike Tanenbaum's comment of "maybe I will go somewhere else where I am more appreciated"...like you do realize you just said this Mike after Greeney point out Rodgers is the player with the highest cap hit in 2021 right?

They aren't misreading it so much as intentionally misconstruing it because QBs are juicy and storylines that take 2-3 years to play out don't generate clicks or buzz.

When/if Rodgers gets traded after 2022, a bunch of people will be claiming "I told you so" even though their predictions were that it would happen 1-2 years earlier and were wholly incorrect.

JuJu staying with Steelers on 1 year $8M deal. Supposedly turned down similar or better offers from Chiefs and Ravens.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 12:23

It still doesn't make much contract sense to get rid of him after this year.

From the time we drafted Love and through on until right now, I have always said that the most logical plan, based on the PREVIOUS Rodgers restructure (which happened less than 6 months before Love was selected), Rodgers is definitely here for 2020 and 2021 and very probably for 2022.

2023 is the first time it MAKES SENSE to move on from Rodgers, financially. In 2022 it is do-able, but still not logical.

This is more of the continuation of attempting to make a current story out of a future story.

Plus, they seem to be talking about voidable year extensions, which the player has to agree to, and ignoring the simple restructure, which the team has the right to execute without him. So their facts aren't even quite accurate when talking about it from the player and team perspective.

Ugh, the hand wringing over our 2022 cap as if we can't do the same thing we did this year. It's laughable. Really, 2023 is shaping up to be the year we move on from a lot of guys, IMO. I don't think it's just Rodgers we are talking about here. That whole FA class from two years ago will likely be gone unless they extend Z. 2023 is shaping up to be a brand new team and not only will the sharp increase in cap make it easy to absorb all the dead cap that year, but they can probably make a few moves already that help the team set up the next window.

paco wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 12:37

JuJu staying with Steelers on 1 year $8M deal. Supposedly turned down similar or better offers from Chiefs and Ravens.

Surprising.

NCF wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 12:38

Ugh, the hand wringing over our 2022 cap as if we can't do the same thing we did this year. It's laughable. Really, 2023 is shaping up to be the year we move on from a lot of guys, IMO. I don't think it's just Rodgers we are talking about here. That whole FA class from two years ago will likely be gone unless they extend Z. 2023 is shaping up to be a brand new team and not only will the sharp increase in cap make it easy to absorb all the dead cap that year, but they can probably make a few moves already that help the team set up the next window.

woops, put that in the wrong thread. Meant it for the free agency one. But weird move by him. Reported that he turned down $9.5M + $3.M in incentives from the Ravens. Steelers aren't going to help you get another deal dude.

NCF wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 12:38

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 12:23

It still doesn't make much contract sense to get rid of him after this year.

From the time we drafted Love and through on until right now, I have always said that the most logical plan, based on the PREVIOUS Rodgers restructure (which happened less than 6 months before Love was selected), Rodgers is definitely here for 2020 and 2021 and very probably for 2022.

2023 is the first time it MAKES SENSE to move on from Rodgers, financially. In 2022 it is do-able, but still not logical.

This is more of the continuation of attempting to make a current story out of a future story.

Plus, they seem to be talking about voidable year extensions, which the player has to agree to, and ignoring the simple restructure, which the team has the right to execute without him. So their facts aren't even quite accurate when talking about it from the player and team perspective.

Ugh, the hand wringing over our 2022 cap as if we can't do the same thing we did this year. It's laughable. Really, 2023 is shaping up to be the year we move on from a lot of guys, IMO. I don't think it's just Rodgers we are talking about here. That whole FA class from two years ago will likely be gone unless they extend Z. 2023 is shaping up to be a brand new team and not only will the sharp increase in cap make it easy to absorb all the dead cap that year, but they can probably make a few moves already that help the team set up the next window.

I think next year's draft for me is the year I want to see them start drafting Olinemen. If Love is our guy, I would like to start getting him an Oline that he can develop under and drafting some in 21 (but especially 22) gives them time to groom and get ready.

I have said many times in other threads I view a few people as "next era" Packers.

Jaire, Savage, Gary, Dillon, Clark, Jenkins

And likely one of either Adams or Z or honestly could be both. Wouldn't be shocked to see either an Amos or Bak stick it out for a year or two either if they can make it work.

And Love and Tonyan could also be in the mix. I think we have around 8 - 11 players currently on the roster stick beyond 2022 (could have other 2019/2020 draft picks as well) but otherwise I think too that 23 is our transition year and 24 and 25 is our new window.

Yeah, I mean I think the plan here is really fairly simple.

2021 - 2022

• Win at least one Super Bowl

• Evaluate Jordan Love and determine if he's your future starter

• Maximize draft picks and replenish weapons and OLine

Offseason before 2023
If Love is your future:

• trade Rodgers for multiple picks

• Extend Love into a 5-6 year contract in which the baseline for negotiating stems from the sum of final year of his rookie salary, the 5th year option number, and one year of franchise tag; guarantee him that number, pay him more cash than that number over the first 3 years, extend the deal through 6 years for maximum final year flexibility; and use the cap spike in '23 to put a lot of the bonus money in year one to limit dead money if you need an out after 2 years

• Move on from basically any player seeking a 3rd contract or with a large salary and over 30

If Love is NOT your future:

• Trade Love for a 3rd or 4th while he's still young and cheap

• Extend Rodgers to make him a Packer for life

• Move on from basically any player seeking a 3rd contract or with a large salary and over 30

2024 to 2026

• New Window

This is how I've viewed it from the day Love was drafted (except the first part would be 2020 through 2022). Nothing has changed. Literally nothing.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 13:24

If Love is NOT your future:
Trade Love for a 3rd or 4th while he's still young and cheap

A few nitpicky issues with this.

1.) It will take A LOT for the FO to admit a mistake without ever seeing him play. Not an impossibility that they know he's not the guy, but I doubt it goes down that way. Likely, they won't know if they were right until he plays. I think the decision has already been made.

2.) Even with a cheap year, 5th-year option, and franchise tags available, I can't see a team giving us a decent draft pick if WE don't see the value in keeping him. Maybe a 6th or 7th would be more appropriate.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

19 Mar 2021 13:24

Yeah, I mean I think the plan here is really fairly simple.

2021 - 2022

• Win at least one Super Bowl

• Evaluate Jordan Love and determine if he's your future starter

• Maximize draft picks and replenish weapons and OLine

Offseason before 2023
If Love is your future:

• trade Rodgers for multiple picks

• Extend Love into a 5-6 year contract in which the baseline for negotiating stems from the sum of final year of his rookie salary, the 5th year option number, and one year of franchise tag; guarantee him that number, pay him more cash than that number over the first 3 years, extend the deal through 6 years for maximum final year flexibility; and use the cap spike in '23 to put a lot of the bonus money in year one to limit dead money if you need an out after 2 years

• Move on from basically any player seeking a 3rd contract or with a large salary and over 30

If Love is NOT your future:

• Trade Love for a 3rd or 4th while he's still young and cheap

• Extend Rodgers to make him a Packer for life

• Move on from basically any player seeking a 3rd contract or with a large salary and over 30

2024 to 2026

• New Window

This is how I've viewed it from the day Love was drafted (except the first part would be 2020 through 2022). Nothing has changed. Literally nothing.

Yep. Great post.

Only thing I think I may disagree about is Adams. I think he is the one player over 30 and 3rd contract who could still definitely be a Packer no matter who the QB is.