Packers Huddle

BF004 wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 14:22

Packfntk wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 16:14

$12.5M/year for Henry? I like that money.

Henry and his agent must have realized the same thing we did about upcoming FAs and draft. Took the best offer he could get.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 16:28

Packfntk wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 16:14

$12.5M/year for Henry? I like that money.

No RB is worth that unless they’re like 2000k rusher like AP was and even then you’ve overspent on a position that you have quality at for peanuts.

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 02:37

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 16:28

Packfntk wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 16:14

$12.5M/year for Henry? I like that money.

No RB is worth that unless they’re like 2000k rusher like AP was and even then you’ve overspent on a position that you have quality at for peanuts.

really, so a player that produces a 1/4 of the offensive production isn't worth what #2 receivers are getting these days, or even a stud slot receiver, it's not a good time to be on a last year of a contract, no position has the bargaining power it normally would have.
with the increase of small ball schemes popping up with us and so many other teams the monetary value of RB's is bound to go up, and if a team has a stud they will pay more to keep them in the future, I wouldn't even think twice to give Jones a 3 year extension at 12 mil per, half guaranteed

Yoop wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 07:53

I wouldn't even think twice to give Jones a 3 year extension at 12 mil per, half guaranteed

Yoop wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 07:53

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 02:37

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

15 Jul 2020 16:28

$12.5M/year for Henry? I like that money.

No RB is worth that unless they’re like 2000k rusher like AP was and even then you’ve overspent on a position that you have quality at for peanuts.

really, so a player that produces a 1/4 of the offensive production isn't worth what #2 receivers are getting these days, or even a stud slot receiver, it's not a good time to be on a last year of a contract, no position has the bargaining power it normally would have.
with the increase of small ball schemes popping up with us and so many other teams the monetary value of RB's is bound to go up, and if a team has a stud they will pay more to keep them in the future, I wouldn't even think twice to give Jones a 3 year extension at 12 mil per, half guaranteed

With the cap the way it is and our current situation with some of the star players we have you need to be able to find positions where you can steal players for cheap. RB is one of those positions.

So what are the factors in RB's being so undervalued.

- Is it the opportunity cost of mid-level replacement and a superstar not being very big.
- Advanced analytics which continually show the irrelevance of having a good running game or good runner.
- History of RB's not living up to big contracts.
- Random fluctuation last several years of just the right guys not hitting the market at the right time.
- Self fulfilling prophecy, top athletes not wanting to be RB's because they won't get the big bucks.
- The relatively short shelf life of RB's.

Some combination of all of these factors? Anyone one of these things having the largest impacts?

NCF wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 08:31

Yoop wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 07:53

I wouldn't even think twice to give Jones a 3 year extension at 12 mil per, half guaranteed

I may not be thrilled with the direction offenses are taking, back to small ball, but only because I grew to love the spread and quick strike ability it offered, once Don Coryall (SP) introduced it as the staple scheme of his offense I wanted more of it, and new eventually more teams would develop those concepts, course now defenses have become more adept at defending it, and WR's that can beat doubles don't grow on tree's.

I know I have often said I don't like platooning RB however we've not had a #2 like Dillon in many a year, teaming him and Jones would seem like a great tandem if your focused on running the ball a lot

BF004 wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 08:46

So what are the factors in RB's being so undervalued.

- Is it the opportunity cost of mid-level replacement and a superstar not being very big.
- Advanced analytics which continually show the irrelevance of having a good running game or good runner.
- History of RB's not living up to big contracts.
- Random fluctuation last several years of just the right guys not hitting the market at the right time.
- Self fulfilling prophecy, top athletes not wanting to be RB's because they won't get the big bucks.
- The relatively short shelf life of RB's.

Some combination of all of these factors? Anyone one of these things having the largest impacts?

Yes, these things.

Though they make RBs accurately valued at a lower level, not "undervalued."

One thing I keep going back to with Jones is he has a nose for the goalline. He's not a yardage whore. RZ TD's vs RZ FG's is often the difference between winning and losing.

BF004 wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 08:46

So what are the factors in RB's being so undervalued.

- Is it the opportunity cost of mid-level replacement and a superstar not being very big.
- Advanced analytics which continually show the irrelevance of having a good running game or good runner.
- History of RB's not living up to big contracts.
- Random fluctuation last several years of just the right guys not hitting the market at the right time.
- Self fulfilling prophecy, top athletes not wanting to be RB's because they won't get the big bucks.
- The relatively short shelf life of RB's.

Some combination of all of these factors? Anyone one of these things having the largest impacts?

sure all these issues are involved, however each player has to be evaluated individually concerning wear and tear, and healthy ceiling, if both check positive, then it comes down to expected production within your scheme.

Lupe, this goes right back to what Ted did upon becoming our GM years back, to save money he dumped the G's, to help the offense he added Jennings, and Grant, impact offensive players tend to be big bang for the buck players, however to think RB is a easy hit position is not exactly true, just look at all we've missed on or where never really impact Players.

no way I let a guy like Jones walk if there is any way to keep him.

NCF wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 08:57

One thing I keep going back to with Jones is he has a nose for the goalline. He's not a yardage whore. RZ TD's vs RZ FG's is often the difference between winning and losing.

VERY different styles, but reminds me a bit of Priest Holmes back in the day.

I remember back when I was on a forum called Pigskin Heaven, they tried to merge into content-providing, not just forum discussion, and I wrote a regular column called "stats behind the stats." Priest Holmes basically never had big plays. He consistently converted short yardage and converted his carries inside the 10 into TDs at a much higher rate than other backs. He was, in many ways, a glorified FB with the usage of a HB and a nose for the goalline. It made him an absolute stud and star, deservingly so.

If Jones is converting red zone carries into TDs at a higher rate than most backs (and he is), then it's definitely a trait to value.

BF004 wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 08:46

So what are the factors in RB's being so undervalued.

- Is it the opportunity cost of mid-level replacement and a superstar not being very big.
- Advanced analytics which continually show the irrelevance of having a good running game or good runner.
- History of RB's not living up to big contracts.
- Random fluctuation last several years of just the right guys not hitting the market at the right time.
- Self fulfilling prophecy, top athletes not wanting to be RB's because they won't get the big bucks.
- The relatively short shelf life of RB's.

Some combination of all of these factors? Anyone one of these things having the largest impacts?

RB's are the inverse of the big man theory. They unfortunately have the most common body type of any position. Which means replacement level players are higher quality than other positions.

Though there are a tiny number of true superstars at the position. There is a good bit of value vs. replacement for these few, but here are also a lot of false superstars who appear to be on that level but only hold it for a year or two (unlike guys like LT and AD that had a much longer, virtually career spanning peak).

RB's peak at a younger age than other positions, which really hurts them with the way typical contracts are set up. Most RB's peak late in their rookie deal or early in their 2nd.

And also the short shelf life. RB's have a productivity cliff unlike any other position, they just fall off the face of the earth at a relatively young age. Except for Frank Gore.

Yoop wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 09:03

BF004 wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 08:46

So what are the factors in RB's being so undervalued.

- Is it the opportunity cost of mid-level replacement and a superstar not being very big.
- Advanced analytics which continually show the irrelevance of having a good running game or good runner.
- History of RB's not living up to big contracts.
- Random fluctuation last several years of just the right guys not hitting the market at the right time.
- Self fulfilling prophecy, top athletes not wanting to be RB's because they won't get the big bucks.
- The relatively short shelf life of RB's.

Some combination of all of these factors? Anyone one of these things having the largest impacts?

sure all these issues are involved, however each player has to be evaluated individually concerning wear and tear, and healthy ceiling, if both check positive, then it comes down to expected production within your scheme.

Lupe, this goes right back to what Ted did upon becoming our GM years back, to save money he dumped the G's, to help the offense he added Jennings, and Grant, impact offensive players tend to be big bang for the buck players, however to think RB is a easy hit position is not exactly true, just look at all we've missed on or where never really impact Players.

no way I let a guy like Jones walk if there is any way to keep him.

Several factors are against Jones. To begin we just drafted a back in the 2nd round. 2nd round players need to become starters. Even if he just gets 40% of the snaps at RB thats still too low for a 2nd round player in my opinion. This is a Casey Hayward and Damarious Randall type situation. I would possibly be on board for resigning Jones (although probably still against it) if we didnt already invest resources into the position but we did.

Jones also has only had 1 healthy season. Sure it was a good year but he just barely eclipsed 1000 yards. Years back 1000 was the standard of great but that not really the case today. Henry had 1500. CMC had 1300. Jones was 12th in the league in rushing yards.

I would love to keep Jones but not for a price that he will likely get on the open market.

Here is our biggest issue with resignings right now:
2020 Cap Space - $11,683,276, Aaron Rodgers Cap Hit - $21,642,000 10.61%
2021 Cap Space - $16,402,784, Aaron Rodgers Cap Hit - $36,352,000 18.34%

2021 Team Salary Caps - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

Holy crap are the Eagles $%@# after 2020.

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

16 Jul 2020 11:32

Several factors are against Jones. To begin we just drafted a back in the 2nd round. 2nd round players need to become starters. Even if he just gets 40% of the snaps at RB thats still too low for a 2nd round player in my opinion. This is a Casey Hayward and Damarious Randall type situation. I would possibly be on board for resigning Jones (although probably still against it) if we didnt already invest resources into the position but we did.

Jones also has only had 1 healthy season. Sure it was a good year but he just barely eclipsed 1000 yards. Years back 1000 was the standard of great but that not really the case today. Henry had 1500. CMC had 1300. Jones was 12th in the league in rushing yards.

I would love to keep Jones but not for a price that he will likely get on the open market.

I agree with much of what you're saying, but you're overlooking a couple things.

1) You cite rushing yards and not scrimmage yards; Jones was 7th in scrimmage yards by a RB, which is a fuller picture of his offensive value than rushing yards.

2) You cite the Randall/Hayward situation and that was a disaster. We absolutely made the wrong choice by moving on from Hayward. Using that to encourage moving on from Jones doesn't make your point stronger.

How about the Saints and Falcons??

Looking slightly ahead to 2022, Saint actually have a little room there, but Eagles and Falcons still damn tight against it.

Falcons may have the worst outlook of any team in the league looking forward 2-5 years.

100% agree, both are bad too.

The one thing that stands out to me is the signed athletes from the Eagles compared to the Falcons and Saints. 13?! Can that be right?!

Oh no, it wasn't right. It is fixed now. That would have been crazy for the Eagles to only have 13 signed players in 2021 and still be $10 million over the cap. AND they had an average age of 30+. What a weird blip there.