Packers Huddle

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 09:13

NCF wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 09:02

Lewis plays his role perfectly, but his salary is becoming prohibitive for someone that plays that role... even if it is really well when I think they can get similar production from someone on a rookie contract.

Think of the position group salary though.

Tonyan is a free agent. Deguara is on a rookie contract.

If we fill out the future of the group with two more rookie contracts, isn’t it worth it to keep Lewis around to maintain his role and mentor the youth of the position?

If we want to spend money on a free agent receiving weapon, certainly. But in the off-season scenario discussed here, the TE room is Musgrave, Washington, Deguara, and Lewis. We’d probably have a bottom five cap cost to the tight end room in the league. Having a rookie contract blocker instead of Lewis accomplishes nothing save getting worse at blocking and completely inexperienced at the position.

I don't think you have to see a drop in production. It could be Zach Tom that steps into that role next year. I guess my point is, it's not training an OT to play TE... Lewis is an OT wearing a TE number.

NCF wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 09:27

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 09:13

NCF wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 09:02

Lewis plays his role perfectly, but his salary is becoming prohibitive for someone that plays that role... even if it is really well when I think they can get similar production from someone on a rookie contract.

Think of the position group salary though.

Tonyan is a free agent. Deguara is on a rookie contract.

If we fill out the future of the group with two more rookie contracts, isn’t it worth it to keep Lewis around to maintain his role and mentor the youth of the position?

If we want to spend money on a free agent receiving weapon, certainly. But in the off-season scenario discussed here, the TE room is Musgrave, Washington, Deguara, and Lewis. We’d probably have a bottom five cap cost to the tight end room in the league. Having a rookie contract blocker instead of Lewis accomplishes nothing save getting worse at blocking and completely inexperienced at the position.

I don't think you have to see a drop in production. It could be Zach Tom that steps into that role next year. I guess my point is, it's not training an OT to play TE... Lewis is an OT wearing a TE number.

man I have to agree with Yoho on this one, both of Musgrave and Washington seem like Lewis clones to me, I mean when Lewis was young, maybe there a bit faster.

I remember Tonyan and Lazard giving credit to Lewis for there improved blocking ability, knowing the nuance and tech to putting your body in position to being a successful blocker, taking better angles so you have better leverage upon contact is invaluable imo, yes coaches teach that stuff, but as we know, seeing it happen, and those results are the best teacher of all.

now we may not draft either of those two, but that stuff works for any TE we draft.

NCF wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 09:27

I don't think you have to see a drop in production. It could be Zach Tom that steps into that role next year. I guess my point is, it's not training an OT to play TE... Lewis is an OT wearing a TE number.

Wild to say that Lewis is the best blocking TE in the league, but we could probably replace him with no drop off.

Also, having/using a 6th OT requires reporting as eligible every play. Lewis plays like 30-40% of snaps. That’s a silly process. 6th OLmen are for like random rate goalline packages.

Plus you’re totally discounting the importance of having ANY experience at one of the slower, more complex positions to learn in the league.

And look like I said, if we want to spend money at the position to get a better receiving weapon, do it, and get worse at blocking TE with a young guy. The passing game is, indeed, more valuable. And a free agent would presumably have experience and we could target someone with the right mental makeup.

But if we want to improve TE through the draft, then keeping Lewis around makes the most sense to me. Are you suggesting that we go into the year with just Deguara and a couple rookies at the position?

Lewis has cost $9 million over the past three years combined at a position group that has been otherwise occupied by rookie or RFA tender salaries. The idea of cost prohibition in this regard is a bit of a stretch.

Again, the complaints about Lewis fell to me to be more complaints that there’s no one better on the roster than complaints about what Lewis himself brings. It’s like MVS at WR. Great value for a 5th round pick, useful deep threat, but caught flack for not being a viable #2 WR. MVS wasn’t the problem. The problem is no one else on the roster was a viable #2 to allow him to fill his more reasonable role.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 10:33

Also, having/using a 6th OT requires reporting as eligible every play. Lewis plays like 30-40% of snaps. That’s a silly process. 6th OLmen are for like random rate goalline packages.

This is also part of my point. That is entirely too many snaps to allocate to someone who is, for all intents and purposes, an extra OLman. We need to change our approach to the position and roll with someone who can be more of a receiving threat. Yeah, I guess it was dumb to say we could replace Lewis with no drop in production. I want a drop in production, but I want that production to decrease as a massive reduction in snap count. Our offense is too predictable with him on the field in many situations and too easy to defend. I have nothing against Lewis and understand his role just fine. I just don't want to spend $4M on it when we are quote-unquote turning the page with the roster.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 10:33

if we want to spend money at the position to get a better receiving weapon, do it, and get worse at blocking TE with a young guy. The passing game is, indeed, more valuable.

I think this is the understated nuance in the differing opinions.

The total value gain in having the best blocking TE in the league coupled with very little production in the passing game could arguably be offset and likely exceeded by playing a reasonably skilled blocking TE who also provides effective production in the passing game.

In actual player terms, yeah, Big Dog is exceptionally good at what he does...but the impact of having essentially a sixth o-lineman doesn't compare to having a TE, say Hayden Hurst, who can meet TE expectations as a blocker but also adds an effective passing dimension to the offense.

APB wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 11:03

In actual player terms, yeah, Big Dog is exceptionally good at what he does...but the impact of having essentially a sixth o-lineman doesn't compare to having a TE, say Hayden Hurst, who can meet TE expectations as a blocker but also adds an effective passing dimension to the offense.

Sure. Most of my defense of Lewis has come in the form of appreciating what we have in him in the past and present.

In this thread, it’s about the future. And if we plan to draft TEs, I want to keep a veteran and I’d much rather have Lewis than Tonyan for one more year while rookies get up to speed.

But in regards to your suggestion, I do want to point out that Hayden Hurst isn’t very good at football. There’s a reason the Ravens traded him, the Falcons let him walk and the Bengals look primed to let him walk. You want to spend money for no value add? Sign Hayden Hurst.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 12:11

APB wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 11:03

In actual player terms, yeah, Big Dog is exceptionally good at what he does...but the impact of having essentially a sixth o-lineman doesn't compare to having a TE, say Hayden Hurst, who can meet TE expectations as a blocker but also adds an effective passing dimension to the offense.

Sure. Most of my defense of Lewis has come in the form of appreciating what we have in him in the past and present.

In this thread, it’s about the future. And if we plan to draft TEs, I want to keep a veteran and I’d much rather have Lewis than Tonyan for one more year while rookies get up to speed.

But in regards to your suggestion, I do want to point out that Hayden Hurst isn’t very good at football. There’s a reason the Ravens traded him, the Falcons let him walk and the Bengals look primed to let him walk. You want to spend money for no value add? Sign Hayden Hurst.

I looked and Hurst had a 2020 Tonyan season last year, we rave about 2020 Tonyan cause thats the best we had in so long, but it's a low bar.

I look at what Lafleur likes to do, and a TE with the ability to eliminate the strong side ILB is a must have player, I bet about 70% of Aaron Jones touches are zone stretch runs, even Dillon does some of it, we also like the mis direction edge runs, where a big TE with ol blocking skills can seal those defenders.

someone said when Lewis is in we become predictable, seems last year thats got merit, and why we should draft his replacement.

again it wouldn't shock me a bit if we took that Notre Dame Kid with slot 15, he seems ready to play with a small play book, good blocker, instant up grade imho.

APB wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 11:03

The total value gain in having the best blocking TE in the league coupled with very little production in the passing game could arguably be offset and likely exceeded by playing a reasonably skilled blocking TE who also provides effective production in the passing game.

Perhaps.
But the Packers utilize more than one TE and TE type (GB had 1475 TE snaps last year) and the MLF offense is driven off the running game.
The run sets up the PA and that's what makes the passing game go. This entire offensive philosophy was designed to allow a decrepit QB (Elway), to win back-to-back SBs. But you gotta make the run game go. That's why MLF values Big Dog more than some Packer fans.

On the relative value scale:
An elite receiving TE might catch 6-7 passes a game ( T. Kelce = 6.4) and he influences another 6-7 plays a game.
Whereas a blocking TE handles 40+ snaps a game in both pass pro and run blocking. I don't understand the idea of wanting a better receiving TE AND getting rid of Big Dog. They play very different roles.

I think what most fans really want is an upgrade from Tonyan AND keeping Lewis around for another season.

The Packers have shown they value the pass catching TE - they spent eleventy million on Martellus Bennett & Jimmy Graham in an attempt to scratch that itch. Neither earned their paycheck. I'd say Jared Cook did, another receiving TE the Packers brought in.

So its not like the Packers don't realize the value of a top- end receiving TE- its that they know the unicorn nature of such beasts and the immense challenge in finding/developing/acquiring one. Meanwhile, they have an HC/offense that relies heavily on the run game to set up the offense and Lewis fits his role for a relative pittance ( $ 4 M). That's about how much a 7th round rookie OT costs ( Rasheed Walker)
.

Agree and unless lewis is stopping us getting a better player on the roster I don't care.

We need a better receiving option than Tonyan or Davis or the fb.

Would do just about anything for a Finley ... just about

Yeah, I think we're all finding some space for each other's positions.

But this year's TE draft class is hella good. I mean, all sorts of analysts and scouts are raving about it.

It just feels like the right time to invest in the future of the position with high upside draft picks on cheap deals and maintain what strengths we do have at the position by retaining a reliable blocking veteran rather than comb the piles of rubble for a guy like Hurst who has averaged between 8-9 yards per catch in each of his past two seasons

I don’t give two shots about how good a TE blocks if it tips your hand to the defense that you’re more than likely running the ball or sending 4 guys in routes.

There needs to be some real threat in the passing game to keep a defense honest. If Lewis wants to continue to play I would be fine keeping him for the absolute minimum and void years for damn sure. I’ve been convinced not a single team signs him if we didn’t. I kind of want to put that to the test and see when he hits the market.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 15:23

Yeah, I think we're all finding some space for each other's positions.

But this year's TE draft class is hella good. I mean, all sorts of analysts and scouts are raving about it.

It just feels like the right time to invest in the future of the position with high upside draft picks on cheap deals and maintain what strengths we do have at the position by retaining a reliable blocking veteran rather than comb the piles of rubble for a guy like Hurst who has averaged between 8-9 yards per catch in each of his past two seasons

For the record, I wasn't advocating Hurst as a FA add. I was simply throwing a name out there to illustrate the point I was trying to make. I didn't even know he was a FA. I just remember him having some impactful games against my team in FF this past year. That is the extent of my player analysis on him.

NCF wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 10:43

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2023 10:33

Also, having/using a 6th OT requires reporting as eligible every play. Lewis plays like 30-40% of snaps. That’s a silly process. 6th OLmen are for like random rate goalline packages.

This is also part of my point. That is entirely too many snaps to allocate to someone who is, for all intents and purposes, an extra OLman. We need to change our approach to the position and roll with someone who can be more of a receiving threat. Yeah, I guess it was dumb to say we could replace Lewis with no drop in production. I want a drop in production, but I want that production to decrease as a massive reduction in snap count. Our offense is too predictable with him on the field in many situations and too easy to defend. I have nothing against Lewis and understand his role just fine. I just don't want to spend $4M on it when we are quote-unquote turning the page with the roster.

Just think. How many offensive linemen can catch passes? The cup is half full man!
:-)

The only issue I have is that if you draft that blocking TE, why do you need Lewis? If you want Lewis for his locker room leadership, make him coach.

Otherwise I really really like this

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

23 Feb 2023 09:40

DL - Clark, Wyatt, Reed, Brooks, Slaton, Slayton, Ford

On paper- that looks like a really solid DL rotation with a mix of crafty vets ( Clark/Reed) ascending players ( Slaton, Wyatt) and a few unknowns
Looking forward to seeing what Ford looks like after a year in an NFL S&C program.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

23 Feb 2023 10:41

AmishMafia wrote: ↑

23 Feb 2023 10:37

"This is a 5-star recruit who was a disappointment until he finally put it together this past season."

This is always a red flag for me. The guy is very gifted and could have done better sooner. So why didn't he? Maybe he is lazy and not focused enough. Maybe in his final season he decided to focus and work harder to get drafted higher and make more money. I want to find guys who love football and work their butts off from day 1 because they love football.

Yeah, it's interesting, right? The things I've read basically indicate that he was over-aggressive and had poor technique; that he focused more on burying a guy than on being in the right position, and more on his physical traits than his hand placement and body positioning. Why did it take so long for him to cut the bad habits and get it together? I don't know. I'd guess that the coaching change midway through his time likely had an effect; maybe the previous regime didn't hold him accountable and the new guys came in and cleaned him up, but it took a year?

But for OL, I'll take over-aggressive as the baseline over the alternative.

But I totally understand that sort of trepidation.

If that's the case - the over aggressiveness - heck yeah I'm on board!

It's much easier to get an over aggressive player to reign it in and play smart than get a meek but smart/athletic player to be aggressive.