APB wrote: ↑24 Sep 2023 22:21
I admit I’m no expert on the “analytics” decisions but I do not understand kicking the FG there.
I actually got to thinking about it and remember the logic behind it now.
Playing for 8 points is playing for a tie. Playing for 2 scores is playing for a win. I'll explain further.
(
YoHo's note: I still prefer going for it, but it's more of a toss-up than I realized at first)
The scenario: It's 4th and 4 inside the ten, you're down 8. There's 2:20 or so left in the game and you have three time outs.
Ok, so let's play out the two scenarios in terms of what it takes to win the game from the point the decision is made:
If you Go for It, here's what you need to win the game:
- convert 4th and 4 successfully (single attempt point of failure)
- score a TD, perhaps on 4th and 4, perhaps on a subsequent play
- convert the 2-point conversion (single attempt point of failure)
- get a defensive stop to prevent an opposing FG/score in the final 2 minutes of the game
At this point you head to Overtime. You are subject to a coin toss which notably impacts the odds of winning. Regardless you still need:
- a score
- a defensive stop (likely, unless you win the toss and score a TD on the first drive)
If you Kick the FG, here's what you need to win the game:
- make the FG (single attempt point of failure, high likelihood)
- Get a 3 & out defensive stop
- Score a TD on the next drive
While the odds of getting a 3 & out and scoring a TD on the next drive may in fact be lower than the odds of going the other way (I'm not sure how it breaks down mathematically), kicking the FG gives you a much cleaner, clearer, simpler path to VICTORY (not a tie) than going for it on 4th and 4--and reduces the single-play point of failure.
Not to mention if you fail to convert the 4th and 4 or the 2-point conversion, you're left needing a 3 & out and an additional score anyway, just to tie, which is the same thing you need after the FG to win.
Again, I think the math is probably 60/40 or 55/45 toward going for it, if I had to guess (/if I recall from when MLF did this). But the path to victory rather than a tie is much more well-known. It's an information advantage of knowing exactly what you need and a reduction of variables involved. Similar to how Waldron's article APB posted in our post-game thread points out that going for 2 the first time gives you an informational advantage for the second score (but the math on that is a lot more obvious and cleaner than the math on this)
So yeah, the FG is a weird call; but not an indefensible one.
" and they've been bottom ten in the NFL for a year and a half now?
