I mean, how many times has a team with a QB on a top 5 QB contract even made the Super Bowl, let alone win it, in the Free Agency era?
I mean, both Manning brothers just from the past decade, and Peyton twice (once with the Colts, once with the Broncos). Brady's almost-perfect season actually came in one of his rare top-over-the-market moments (he accounted for 12.6% of the cap that year). Matt Ryan reached the SB, also, on a top-of-market deal.
But I agree having a very good starter on a less expensive deal is good. It's just that "rookie contract" is an overrated caveat to "less expensive deal." It's just as, if not more common, to win and achieve on a second or third contract if that contract was signed or has dropped below market.
Like I said, having a QB great enough to carry a championship team in his first 4 years is rare. Having a QB that you've identified as a franchise keeper and locked into a long term deal with some cap-friendly elements is just as good. Paying top dollar for past performance, however, has not yielded excellent results; you're right.
Re: Successful Season
Posted: 11 Aug 2020 12:54
by Waldo
But this discussion does speak to the otherwise lack of common traits between championship teams.
Including this "make a move to put you over the top" concept.
Most teams have an elite unit that breaks conventional strategy that teams are constructed to beat.
Going back to my '10 Packers example and the elite hawking defense, one thing not acknowledged about that team was how insanely good they were against play action. Tactics played as much a role as personnel in that, which backfired horribly in future years, but it worked in '10 (Capers frequently played straight up pass defense against run sets in anticipation of play action). The whole run to set up play action big plays strategy was useless against the '10 Packers. They were goading you into it by not even bothering to play the run.
Last year multiple teams, including 2/4 on Championship weekend, constructed rushing attacks so potent they completely obliterated standard defenses, which have been trending more and more to being pass defending specialists. Green Bay had a first hand look at that on Championship weekend.
One of the more common ones has been a pass rush so potent that it is almost pointless to even try throwing. Green Bay was almost there last year (that is what arguably got them to Championship weekend). Gary takes a step and the Smiths + Clark maintain the same level, maybe add in a bit more spice from the ILB's, and they'll be there.
Re: Successful Season
Posted: 11 Aug 2020 13:19
by YoHoChecko
In the past ten years,
QBs on rookie contracts have won 2 Super Bowls (plus the Eagles who had Wentz on his rookie deal out with injury while a cheap backup won)
QBs with top-10 cap values for the season won 2 Super Bowls
And QBs neither in the top 10 nor on a rookie deal won 6 (including Foles).
Worth remembering also that some rookie deals further back also ended up being top-ten deals. Fortunately, Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez weren't successful enough to confuse the analysis.
The most likely avenue for team success is a good, experienced QB who isn't breaking the bank. Second contracts don't hurt your chances.
But this discussion does speak to the otherwise lack of common traits between championship teams.
Including this "make a move to put you over the top" concept.
Most teams have an elite unit that breaks conventional strategy that teams are constructed to beat.
Going back to my '10 Packers example and the elite hawking defense, one thing not acknowledged about that team was how insanely good they were against play action. Tactics played as much a role as personnel in that, which backfired horribly in future years, but it worked in '10 (Capers frequently played straight up pass defense against run sets in anticipation of play action). The whole run to set up play action big plays strategy was useless against the '10 Packers. They were goading you into it by not even bothering to play the run.
Last year multiple teams, including 2/4 on Championship weekend, constructed rushing attacks so potent they completely obliterated standard defenses, which have been trending more and more to being pass defending specialists. Green Bay had a first hand look at that on Championship weekend.
One of the more common ones has been a pass rush so potent that it is almost pointless to even try throwing. Green Bay was almost there last year (that is what arguably got them to Championship weekend). Gary takes a step and the Smiths + Clark maintain the same level, maybe add in a bit more spice from the ILB's, and they'll be there.
The defense is finally in a good spot. Still not elite but it’s in a good enough spot now where if the offense runs into another good defense they can win. I think Gary’s improvement helps but ultimately is irrelevant as he’s still a backup. It’ll help but I think it’s a small cog to the success of the defense.
Where this defense will make massive strides is if Savage bulls up and/or improves his tackling. He really struggled with his tackling and angles. Gave up way to many plays. You just can’t be unreliable as the last line of the defense. Elite defenses don’t give up big plays consistently which is what this team did and a lot of that was on Kevin “Pan Fried Noodles” King and 26 Savage.
The other big jump needs to come from someone on that defensive line. Idk who it will be. Hopefully in Keke but Lowry is not good enough and Lancaster sure as hell isnt good enough. If that doesn’t get better I don’t expect much from the run defense.
But this discussion does speak to the otherwise lack of common traits between championship teams.
Including this "make a move to put you over the top" concept.
Most teams have an elite unit that breaks conventional strategy that teams are constructed to beat.
Going back to my '10 Packers example and the elite hawking defense, one thing not acknowledged about that team was how insanely good they were against play action. Tactics played as much a role as personnel in that, which backfired horribly in future years, but it worked in '10 (Capers frequently played straight up pass defense against run sets in anticipation of play action). The whole run to set up play action big plays strategy was useless against the '10 Packers. They were goading you into it by not even bothering to play the run.
Last year multiple teams, including 2/4 on Championship weekend, constructed rushing attacks so potent they completely obliterated standard defenses, which have been trending more and more to being pass defending specialists. Green Bay had a first hand look at that on Championship weekend.
One of the more common ones has been a pass rush so potent that it is almost pointless to even try throwing. Green Bay was almost there last year (that is what arguably got them to Championship weekend). Gary takes a step and the Smiths + Clark maintain the same level, maybe add in a bit more spice from the ILB's, and they'll be there.
Wow I never did realize how middling our rush defense was that year -- #18 in yards allowed. So Capers was as heavy on that infamous 2-5 nickel package in 2010 as he was in those dreadful few years afterwards? I feel like between Raji, Jenkins, Pickett, and Jolly, we had the personnel to field a stout run D if we wanted to.
But this discussion does speak to the otherwise lack of common traits between championship teams.
Including this "make a move to put you over the top" concept.
Most teams have an elite unit that breaks conventional strategy that teams are constructed to beat.
Going back to my '10 Packers example and the elite hawking defense, one thing not acknowledged about that team was how insanely good they were against play action. Tactics played as much a role as personnel in that, which backfired horribly in future years, but it worked in '10 (Capers frequently played straight up pass defense against run sets in anticipation of play action). The whole run to set up play action big plays strategy was useless against the '10 Packers. They were goading you into it by not even bothering to play the run.
Last year multiple teams, including 2/4 on Championship weekend, constructed rushing attacks so potent they completely obliterated standard defenses, which have been trending more and more to being pass defending specialists. Green Bay had a first hand look at that on Championship weekend.
One of the more common ones has been a pass rush so potent that it is almost pointless to even try throwing. Green Bay was almost there last year (that is what arguably got them to Championship weekend). Gary takes a step and the Smiths + Clark maintain the same level, maybe add in a bit more spice from the ILB's, and they'll be there.
Wow I never did realize how middling our rush defense was that year -- #18 in yards allowed. So Capers was as heavy on that infamous 2-5 nickel package in 2010 as he was in those dreadful few years afterwards? I feel like between Raji, Jenkins, Pickett, and Jolly, we had the personnel to field a stout run D if we wanted to.
Really hard for me to be convinced that our D is in a good spot after seeing how well the 49ers ran the ball against us in the 2019 NFCCG.
But yes............. that lineup of Raji, Jenkins, Pickett (not sure about Jolly) was so good compared to what we have had to endure ever since Jenkins and Pickett left the team. Having Hawk and Matthews as LBs combined with Collins and Woodson in the secondary was good enough to beat Da Bears in the NFC Championship Game and the Steelers in the Super Bowl. To be fair as well, we had great receivers in 2010 compared to our latest rendition of receivers. I still think the 1996 D-line was even better than anything we have seen since the 1967 Packers, with the stellar Sean Jones, Santana Dotson, Gilbert Brown and Reggie White up front, and Wayne Simmons at LB and LeRoy Butler and Craig Newsome in the secondary. That Darius "Dirty D" Holland helmet throwing incident was a great example of overall defensive intensity. You need defensive fire to dominate. I don't see any fire in Pettine's defensive players.
But this discussion does speak to the otherwise lack of common traits between championship teams.
Including this "make a move to put you over the top" concept.
Most teams have an elite unit that breaks conventional strategy that teams are constructed to beat.
Going back to my '10 Packers example and the elite hawking defense, one thing not acknowledged about that team was how insanely good they were against play action. Tactics played as much a role as personnel in that, which backfired horribly in future years, but it worked in '10 (Capers frequently played straight up pass defense against run sets in anticipation of play action). The whole run to set up play action big plays strategy was useless against the '10 Packers. They were goading you into it by not even bothering to play the run.
Last year multiple teams, including 2/4 on Championship weekend, constructed rushing attacks so potent they completely obliterated standard defenses, which have been trending more and more to being pass defending specialists. Green Bay had a first hand look at that on Championship weekend.
One of the more common ones has been a pass rush so potent that it is almost pointless to even try throwing. Green Bay was almost there last year (that is what arguably got them to Championship weekend). Gary takes a step and the Smiths + Clark maintain the same level, maybe add in a bit more spice from the ILB's, and they'll be there.
Wow I never did realize how middling our rush defense was that year -- #18 in yards allowed. So Capers was as heavy on that infamous 2-5 nickel package in 2010 as he was in those dreadful few years afterwards? I feel like between Raji, Jenkins, Pickett, and Jolly, we had the personnel to field a stout run D if we wanted to.
It was a passing league then to, would you load up the line to stop the run and sacrifice the pass coverage, I wouldn
t think you would, Capers 2 gaped the DT and concentrated on stopping the pass, Pettine uses a single gap scheme up front, which is fine, as long as you have two very good ILB's to play those empty gaps, very very few teams can accomplish what SF was able to do last year, and iether front works fine as long as you have the talent to make them a success.
most teams been using nickle as there base defense now for 10 years, it's a copy cat league, when DC saw what Capers was able to do back in 09 and 10 with the 2-5, they got woody's, No not the player turnovers win games, having a free lancing duo of Woodson and Collins, baiting QB's with disguised pre snaps then dashing in from out of no where to pick there passes will demoralize QB's and we led the league at that till the Collins injury, Capers 2-5 was a innovative defense, but he needed certain type players to make it work as it did those first few seasons.
Re: Successful Season
Posted: 13 Aug 2020 10:23
by YoHoChecko
It'll be a successful season when no one on this board argues about former employees who have been gone from the team for years in any thread not specifically about history.
But this discussion does speak to the otherwise lack of common traits between championship teams.
Including this "make a move to put you over the top" concept.
Most teams have an elite unit that breaks conventional strategy that teams are constructed to beat.
Going back to my '10 Packers example and the elite hawking defense, one thing not acknowledged about that team was how insanely good they were against play action. Tactics played as much a role as personnel in that, which backfired horribly in future years, but it worked in '10 (Capers frequently played straight up pass defense against run sets in anticipation of play action). The whole run to set up play action big plays strategy was useless against the '10 Packers. They were goading you into it by not even bothering to play the run.
Last year multiple teams, including 2/4 on Championship weekend, constructed rushing attacks so potent they completely obliterated standard defenses, which have been trending more and more to being pass defending specialists. Green Bay had a first hand look at that on Championship weekend.
One of the more common ones has been a pass rush so potent that it is almost pointless to even try throwing. Green Bay was almost there last year (that is what arguably got them to Championship weekend). Gary takes a step and the Smiths + Clark maintain the same level, maybe add in a bit more spice from the ILB's, and they'll be there.
Wow I never did realize how middling our rush defense was that year -- #18 in yards allowed. So Capers was as heavy on that infamous 2-5 nickel package in 2010 as he was in those dreadful few years afterwards? I feel like between Raji, Jenkins, Pickett, and Jolly, we had the personnel to field a stout run D if we wanted to.
It was a passing league then to, would you load up the line to stop the run and sacrifice the pass coverage, I wouldn
t think you would, Capers 2 gaped the DT and concentrated on stopping the pass, Pettine uses a single gap scheme up front, which is fine, as long as you have two very good ILB's to play those empty gaps, very very few teams can accomplish what SF was able to do last year, and iether front works fine as long as you have the talent to make them a success.
most teams been using nickle as there base defense now for 10 years, it's a copy cat league, when DC saw what Capers was able to do back in 09 and 10 with the 2-5, they got woody's, No not the player turnovers win games, having a free lancing duo of Woodson and Collins, baiting QB's with disguised pre snaps then dashing in from out of no where to pick there passes will demoralize QB's and we led the league at that till the Collins injury, Capers 2-5 was a innovative defense, but he needed certain type players to make it work as it did those first few seasons.
Solid analysis.
I guess the defense frustrated me from 2011-2018. It was like, ok obviously our personnel isn't anywhere close to what it was in 2010 in terms of talent and ability. But we're just gonna keep hitting em with this 2-5 nickel even with Adrian Peterson ripping us a new ah for like, 4 straight seasons. You can't just expect CJ Wilson to come in and pick up where Raji left off.
It'll be a successful season when no one on this board argues about former employees who have been gone from the team for years in any thread not specifically about history.
You need defensive fire to dominate. I don't see any fire in Pettine's defensive players.
Re: Successful Season
Posted: 13 Aug 2020 11:49
by Pckfn23
Capers 2 gaped the DT and concentrated on stopping the pass, Pettine uses a single gap scheme up front, which is fine, as long as you have two very good ILB's to play those empty gaps, very very few teams can accomplish what SF was able to do last year, and iether front works fine as long as you have the talent to make them a success.
most teams been using nickle as there base defense now for 10 years, it's a copy cat league, when DC saw what Capers was able to do back in 09 and 10 with the 2-5,
Pettine does not use mostly a single gap scheme up front. Our defensive lineman are generally 2 gapping the majority of the time. Playing a 1 gap scheme for the front 5/6/7 is easy for the ILBs. They fill a gap no matter what, so we would not need very good ones to do that. That's not what we as a defense do however. It is actually impossible to do with the amount of 5+ DBs we play (too many gaps to fill. No team in the NFL is playing a majority 1 gap scheme for run defense any longer. It's just impossible to do when more DBs are required to combat the passing game.
Just an FYI a 2-5 is not nickel... That would be a base defense with 2 DL, 2 OLBs, and 3 2nd level linebackers. Nickel refers to 5 DBs. Dime refers to 6. We have generally played a 2-4 nickel in the past and lately implemented some more 3-3.
One of our biggest issue in stopping the run last season was not necessarily the defensive line, which wasn't all that great either, but our OLBs. Especially in the San Fransisco game, they were continually pulling a Clay Matthews or Jared Allen and running upfield.
I would say barring injuries a successful season for the defense would be top 10 bordering on top 5. The horses are there and if healthy they can run!
One of our biggest issue in stopping the run last season was not necessarily the defensive line, which wasn't all that great either, but our OLBs. Especially in the San Fransisco game, they were continually pulling a Clay Matthews or Jared Allen and running upfield.
The saddest part of all of this is they did the exact same thing a week earlier to Minnesota. Not necessarily isolating the EDGE guys, but running 800 times on them. You'd think something as simple as inside traps and isolating the EDGE (essentially what Read Option that did us in 7 years earlier) would have been something GB was prepared to stop. And certainly, once they weren't, adjustments could have been made to counter. Still just kills my soul to think about.
One of our biggest issue in stopping the run last season was not necessarily the defensive line, which wasn't all that great either, but our OLBs. Especially in the San Fransisco game, they were continually pulling a Clay Matthews or Jared Allen and running upfield.
The saddest part of all of this is they did the exact same thing a week earlier to Minnesota. Not necessarily isolating the EDGE guys, but running 800 times on them. You'd think something as simple as inside traps and isolating the EDGE (essentially what Read Option that did us in 7 years earlier) would have been something GB was prepared to stop. And certainly, once they weren't, adjustments could have been made to counter. Still just kills my soul to think about.
STOP! You make me want to puke just thinking about how we did the same thing for 50 minutes and just expected it to work... Didn't we have a pukey emoji?
You need defensive fire to dominate. I don't see any fire in Pettine's defensive players.
OK .......... maybe I should have said "alot" of fire, not "any" fire. Sure one guy has it (Z Smith). Not sure about Jaire yet.
I mean this defense has huge swagger. Every level has Pro Bowl level players outside of MLB.
We have Kenny, Z and Preston, Jaire and King, and Amos. All of them were Pro Bowl level.
What's more, our defense for the first time in ever actually got me excited when it was 3rd down because I was confident we would make a big play. I mean how used to it were we last year seeing Preston do this?
or our defense do the D train?
I mean we have 15 minutes of defensive highlights. There is incredible swagger. Juice. Fire. Whatever you want to call it.
We were 13-3 primarily because of this defense.
Re: Successful Season
Posted: 13 Aug 2020 21:34
by YoHoChecko
omg, [mention]go pak go[/mention] thank you; that video made my night.
Of note: Savage blitzed on a lot of those early season highlights but not as many as the late ones. Interesting.
And not to start a whole thing, but I think Gary might be good, too.
turnovers win games, having a free lancing duo of Woodson and Collins, baiting QB's with disguised pre snaps then dashing in from out of no where to pick there passes will demoralize QB's and we led the league at that till the Collins injury, Capers 2-5 was a innovative defense, but he needed certain type players to make it work as it did those first few seasons.
