YoHoChecko wrote: ↑28 May 2021 09:04
That players such as Ryan Tannehill, Rich Gannon, Kurt Warner, heck Alex smith counts too have shown that “washed out disappointments or backups” can emerge into high level starters given the right coaching and time proves that there are more successful QBs waiting to be developed and improved that we never get to see due to the total incompetence and incoherence of NFL front officers who change coaches and QBs more often than bike tires
I want to build off of this a little...
In 2006 I did a deep dive into three star QBs who were, to say the least, unexpected. It was Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Rich Gannon. All three were playing at elite levels after a) being drafted 199th, b) being an UDFA who didn't pan out in the GB preseason, went back to working odd jobs and bagging groceries before being thrust into a starting role when preferred starter Trent Green got injured during the preseason, and c) a long-term backup QB who bounced around the league playing spot duty until he and Gruden connected in Oakland and built an MVP caliber force of an offense.
I found some things in common with the emergence of each over a 3-year period as starters.
First, in each of their first years as starters, their success felt more of a game manager type than an elite QB operating at a high level. In all three stops, the average air yards per completion were lower than league average. This means they were throwing shorter passes more often and relying on the players around them to make YAC and move things.
Second, each player improved both statistically and in complexity as they advanced in LARGE PART because there was continuity around them. All of them had the same coaches/scheme for their first three years (Warner switched from Vermeil to Martz but Martz was an in-house promotion), most had continuity of at least a portion of their weapons (least true for the Patriots, most true for the Rams).
By the end of their third years, they had clearly broken out of the system mold. But would they have been those capable players WITHOUT first being played within boundaries and with lower risk? I think they would not.
So when you are planning on drafting a QB, I contend that unless you're SURE they're ready (in later looks I have found that the players who start from day one without a "competition" generally are the year-one starters who perform the best, meaning the team accurately evaluated them as NFL-ready from the jump, while players who get inserted into the starting lineup quickly due to the struggles of a veteran starter are most likely to wash out--so the "put ;em on the field and see what you got" crowd is actively harming QB development), you should:
- Make sure you have the offensive coaching staff in place that you plan to trust and give three years to run the team and develop your most important players
- Have key offensive pieces in place that can create continuity
- Sit the QB for at least one year, unlearning bad habits and re-learning good habits under stress to create the proper muscle memory to advance and grow
- Utilize a running game and play action to help protect your young QB in the pocket but also to ensure that teams can't gameplan to destroy your young QB's soul without also having to account for the running game
- Utilize a more horizontal than vertical passing game that relies on quicker, shorter passes to get the young QB in a rhythm and build confidence to stack success while reducing turnover risk
- Gradually increase the QB's responsibilities and degree of difficulty as the QB becomes more familiar with the offensive concepts and the defensive reads
It's relatively easy and straightforward and ONLY requires patience and a plan. It's very rare these days that a team has the leeway to enact such a plan. The Dolphins did it with Flores, though... gave him guarantees and a big runway to clear out what was left behind and bring in what was needed to move in a new direction; put most of the roster in place before the QB. Give the rookie QB time to sit behind a veteran. Insert the QB last. Hopefully, this season, they don't just ask Tua to DO EVERYTHING RIGHT AWAY but they protect him with the shorter passes he's comfortable with.
It may be hard to remember or conceptualize now how much Brady was thought to be a game manager, system QB during the Patriots' first run of Super Bowls. It may be difficult now to think of Rich Gannon as an elite player since his heyday was so brief. And it may be true that my 15-year old analysis would yield different results if I tried to replicate it now by looking at how other QBs emerged. But the idea that there were three elite QBs playing in the 2000s who had zero pedigree, zero reason to be optimistic about their careers a couple years earlier, and clearly had a lesser degree of pure talent than many drafted above them proved a very useful experiment into "how to build a top level QB from the ground up" and I have internalized and stuck to those lessons throughout.