Adams Contract Talks Halt

[YoHoChecko]

On the Last Dance Post:

1) No one called anyone; just telepathy between us
2) I just love the Bulls; I miss Jordan. I'm a Jordan guy (shows off his unreleased Jordan sneakers)

later, asked if viewing the season as a Last Dance is a distraction
3) It's not a distraction; just a post. At the end of the day if we wanna mess with you from time to time, we have a right to
:::sly smile:::

[Drj820]

I love 17, but if he insists on being the highest paid I hope he gets his wish...on another team. I will still wish him the best and be happy he secured the bag.

[YoHoChecko]

I love 17, but if he insists on being the highest paid I hope he gets his wish...on another team. I will still wish him the best and be happy he secured the bag.

Yeah, we definitely cannot afford a $27M/year WR right now. We just can't. I have no clue what the offense looks like without him, but if that's the line he draws, he's gonna have to go.

It was interesting to hear him say he wishes it was like the NBA where if you're a max contract player, you're a max contract player and you get it and it's "simple." But this wasn't "as simple as it should be"

[Pckfn23]

[Drj820]

I love 17, but if he insists on being the highest paid I hope he gets his wish...on another team. I will still wish him the best and be happy he secured the bag.

Yeah, we definitely cannot afford a $27M/year WR right now. We just can't. I have no clue what the offense looks like without him, but if that's the line he draws, he's gonna have to go.

It was interesting to hear him say he wishes it was like the NBA where if you're a max contract player, you're a max contract player and you get it and it's "simple." But this wasn't "as simple as it should be"

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

[YoHoChecko]

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

That was DeAndre Hopkins' "new money, new years" number.

He was traded from Houston to Arizona with 3 years left on his deal. They gave him a 5-year deal instead. The two new years and $54 million new dollars created a "$27 million/year" extension value.

I have railed for many, many years about using those numbers as any sort of barometer. I am SO annoyed that Overthecap and Spotrac both adjusted years ago to show contracts that way, as well. The REAL average annual value of a contract is the life of the deal (unless/except when there are clear dummy years or decision points inserted into the deal)

Hopkins' actual deal is worth a little over $90 million over five years--$18-19 million per year.

Because Adams only has one year remaining on his deal, getting a "new money, new years" deal as high as Hopkins is virtually impossible. But given that that's the way that agents and media measure highest-paid players, that's what a demand to be the highest-paid player would get you.

[paco]

I love 17, but if he insists on being the highest paid I hope he gets his wish...on another team. I will still wish him the best and be happy he secured the bag.

Yeah, we definitely cannot afford a $27M/year WR right now. We just can't. I have no clue what the offense looks like without him, but if that's the line he draws, he's gonna have to go.

It was interesting to hear him say he wishes it was like the NBA where if you're a max contract player, you're a max contract player and you get it and it's "simple." But this wasn't "as simple as it should be"

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

But are you a contender when you lose the best WR in the league? Or the best LT? Or one of the best RB's? Or the best QB? Markets change, prices go up. In the next 2-3 years, cap will sky rocket (barring another pandemic year or something else crazy). You have to pick and choose who you pay. Packers have to make those decisions, and we've got a lot of those coming up (Davante, Jaire, Elgton, Tonyan, MVS, Z, Amos, Crosby). And those are just guys who need to be thought about in the next calendar year. Gary, Savage, Dillon and others soon after.

[Drj820]

Yeah, we definitely cannot afford a $27M/year WR right now. We just can't. I have no clue what the offense looks like without him, but if that's the line he draws, he's gonna have to go.

It was interesting to hear him say he wishes it was like the NBA where if you're a max contract player, you're a max contract player and you get it and it's "simple." But this wasn't "as simple as it should be"

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

But are you a contender when you lose the best WR in the league? Or the best LT? Or one of the best RB's? Or the best QB? Markets change, prices go up. In the next 2-3 years, cap will sky rocket (barring another pandemic year or something else crazy). You have to pick and choose who you pay. Packers have to make those decisions, and we've got a lot of those coming up (Davante, Jaire, Elgton, Tonyan, MVS, Z, Amos, Crosby). And those are just guys who need to be thought about in the next calendar year. Gary, Savage, Dillon and others soon after.

I think WR and RB are some of your more easily replaced positions. We just haven’t put any resources into trying to replace Adams. I love Adams and think he would be hard to replace, just saying I think you probably pay the top LT over a top WR. WRs “almost” grow on trees these days.

[go pak go]

Yeah, we definitely cannot afford a $27M/year WR right now. We just can't. I have no clue what the offense looks like without him, but if that's the line he draws, he's gonna have to go.

It was interesting to hear him say he wishes it was like the NBA where if you're a max contract player, you're a max contract player and you get it and it's "simple." But this wasn't "as simple as it should be"

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

But are you a contender when you lose the best WR in the league? Or the best LT? Or one of the best RB's? Or the best QB? Markets change, prices go up. In the next 2-3 years, cap will sky rocket (barring another pandemic year or something else crazy). You have to pick and choose who you pay. Packers have to make those decisions, and we've got a lot of those coming up (Davante, Jaire, Elgton, Tonyan, MVS, Z, Amos, Crosby). And those are just guys who need to be thought about in the next calendar year. Gary, Savage, Dillon and others soon after.

We are 6-0 with Adams not playing under MLF and Adams dropped the critical ball.

I think I would like to use that pretty top 10 draft pick we get from trading Rodgers on a new toy for Love. If Adams is serious about the $27 million mark and not the real mark of more like $22 Million (Julio Jones money)...let someone else pay it.

[Drj820]

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

That was DeAndre Hopkins' "new money, new years" number.

He was traded from Houston to Arizona with 3 years left on his deal. They gave him a 5-year deal instead. The two new years and $54 million new dollars created a "$27 million/year" extension value.

I have railed for many, many years about using those numbers as any sort of barometer. I am SO annoyed that Overthecap and Spotrac both adjusted years ago to show contracts that way, as well. The REAL average annual value of a contract is the life of the deal (unless/except when there are clear dummy years or decision points inserted into the deal)

Hopkins' actual deal is worth a little over $90 million over five years--$18-19 million per year.

Because Adams only has one year remaining on his deal, getting a "new money, new years" deal as high as Hopkins is virtually impossible. But given that that's the way that agents and media measure highest-paid players, that's what a demand to be the highest-paid player would get you.

Yeah my bad, I knew that, but I meant “good teams” or “contending teams”, left a word out while walking ha

[lupedafiasco]

Adams turns 29 in December. On his end he has earned the right to be the highest paid receivers based on his stats but he’s at that age where receivers start to fall off and he’s not a burner to begin with.

It’s his last shot at a payday so it’s makes sense for him. I don’t know if it makes sense for us to pay that at his age though. It would have to probably be at least a 3 year deal for him to be happy but I would bet they’re looking for 4 for security.

This is another reason I have been pounding the table for them to be developing a #2 receiver for some time.

[williewasgreat]

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

But are you a contender when you lose the best WR in the league? Or the best LT? Or one of the best RB's? Or the best QB? Markets change, prices go up. In the next 2-3 years, cap will sky rocket (barring another pandemic year or something else crazy). You have to pick and choose who you pay. Packers have to make those decisions, and we've got a lot of those coming up (Davante, Jaire, Elgton, Tonyan, MVS, Z, Amos, Crosby). And those are just guys who need to be thought about in the next calendar year. Gary, Savage, Dillon and others soon after.

I think WR and RB are some of your more easily replaced positions. We just haven’t put any resources into trying to replace Adams. I love Adams and think he would be hard to replace, just saying I think you probably pay the top LT over a top WR. WRs “almost” grow on trees these days.

I have to disagree with your claim that WR is an easily replaced position. I think we have seen just the opposite in recent years. Unless you don't care about how good the WRs are.

[Drj820]

But are you a contender when you lose the best WR in the league? Or the best LT? Or one of the best RB's? Or the best QB? Markets change, prices go up. In the next 2-3 years, cap will sky rocket (barring another pandemic year or something else crazy). You have to pick and choose who you pay. Packers have to make those decisions, and we've got a lot of those coming up (Davante, Jaire, Elgton, Tonyan, MVS, Z, Amos, Crosby). And those are just guys who need to be thought about in the next calendar year. Gary, Savage, Dillon and others soon after.

I think WR and RB are some of your more easily replaced positions. We just haven’t put any resources into trying to replace Adams. I love Adams and think he would be hard to replace, just saying I think you probably pay the top LT over a top WR. WRs “almost” grow on trees these days.

I have to disagree with your claim that WR is an easily replaced position. I think we have seen just the opposite in recent years. Unless you don't care about how good the WRs are.

I would just wager that we have put in almost zero real effort in doing so, and when you put in the effort (trade decent loot for a known commodity as they are often available, or spend a 1st or 2nd pick on one), then they become much easier to find and replace than say a LT.

Just my opinion.

[go pak go]

But are you a contender when you lose the best WR in the league? Or the best LT? Or one of the best RB's? Or the best QB? Markets change, prices go up. In the next 2-3 years, cap will sky rocket (barring another pandemic year or something else crazy). You have to pick and choose who you pay. Packers have to make those decisions, and we've got a lot of those coming up (Davante, Jaire, Elgton, Tonyan, MVS, Z, Amos, Crosby). And those are just guys who need to be thought about in the next calendar year. Gary, Savage, Dillon and others soon after.

I think WR and RB are some of your more easily replaced positions. We just haven’t put any resources into trying to replace Adams. I love Adams and think he would be hard to replace, just saying I think you probably pay the top LT over a top WR. WRs “almost” grow on trees these days.

I have to disagree with your claim that WR is an easily replaced position. I think we have seen just the opposite in recent years. Unless you don't care about how good the WRs are.

I mean anytime you replace "the best player in the NFL at a position", it's going to be hard. They are the best player in the NFL.

I would agree that even though our WR corps behind Adams hasn't been great, the Packers still found ways to be productive on offense in Adams's presence.

Huge weaknesses at WR IMO are easier to cover up compared to huge weaknesses at CB, Safety or Oline.

Besides. The Packers won't be contenders in 22 or likely 23 anyways. We will also be a run heavy team. I think what you hope for after this dream team season is we can avoid disaster, look good and have hope for the future. Some weak spot positions don't really let you do that. A weak spot at WR can be filled pretty quick with the right draft pick or FA signing.

[NCF]

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

That was DeAndre Hopkins' "new money, new years" number.

He was traded from Houston to Arizona with 3 years left on his deal. They gave him a 5-year deal instead. The two new years and $54 million new dollars created a "$27 million/year" extension value.

I have railed for many, many years about using those numbers as any sort of barometer. I am SO annoyed that Overthecap and Spotrac both adjusted years ago to show contracts that way, as well. The REAL average annual value of a contract is the life of the deal (unless/except when there are clear dummy years or decision points inserted into the deal)

Hopkins' actual deal is worth a little over $90 million over five years--$18-19 million per year.

Because Adams only has one year remaining on his deal, getting a "new money, new years" deal as high as Hopkins is virtually impossible. But given that that's the way that agents and media measure highest-paid players, that's what a demand to be the highest-paid player would get you.

Entirely true. Julio is the real high water mark at $22M, right? That seems like a high bar, as well. So, I'd do that, if it was a short-term deal, but a long-term deal would be hard to pull off.

Is Adams really pushing for $27M... I doubt it. Are the Packers refusing to break $22M? I bet that is the actual scenario.

[go pak go]

I don’t think any team pays their WRs 27 per year. Could be wrong, just doesn’t strike me as how contenders use their resources.

That was DeAndre Hopkins' "new money, new years" number.

He was traded from Houston to Arizona with 3 years left on his deal. They gave him a 5-year deal instead. The two new years and $54 million new dollars created a "$27 million/year" extension value.

I have railed for many, many years about using those numbers as any sort of barometer. I am SO annoyed that Overthecap and Spotrac both adjusted years ago to show contracts that way, as well. The REAL average annual value of a contract is the life of the deal (unless/except when there are clear dummy years or decision points inserted into the deal)

Hopkins' actual deal is worth a little over $90 million over five years--$18-19 million per year.

Because Adams only has one year remaining on his deal, getting a "new money, new years" deal as high as Hopkins is virtually impossible. But given that that's the way that agents and media measure highest-paid players, that's what a demand to be the highest-paid player would get you.

Entirely true. Julio is the real high water mark at $22M, right? That seems like a high bar, as well. So, I'd do that, if it was a short-term deal, but a long-term deal would be hard to pull off.

Is Adams really pushing for $27M... I doubt it. Are the Packers refusing to break $22M? I bet that is the actual scenario.

The Packers can't do a short term deal and do $22 million. The only deal we could do with Adams is make it long so we can push money out.

I agree that a 3 year deal with Adams makes the most sense. But we can't afford to do that.

[NCF]

Yep. Right out of Gute's mouth.

[YoHoChecko]

I think what they'd have to do is actually a long-term deal that hits the $27M in new money new years and hits the short term mark of $22M/year over the first 3 years with no intention of ever playing out the final years of the deal.

So here's a 5 year, $137.5 million extension, which is a 6-year $150 million total deal.

image.png (6.49 KiB) Viewed 166 times

It pays a $50 million signing bonus and would probably guarantee the salaries in the first 2 years (I would make $1 million of the salaries in each year after the first a $500k workout bonus and $500k per-game roster bonus, non-guaranteed, which are parts of his current deal, as well, but wasn't up for that level of nuance on my phone in the middle of the night last night when I sketched this out). Over the first three years, Adams would receive $69 million (including those aforementioned bonuses, so maybe as low as $67 million), giving him the edge over the 3-year $22 million mark that Julio currently has.

In year 4 of the deal, we'd have to choose between a $28 million cap number or releasing him for a $20 million dead money hit ($8 million savings). But a post-June1st release could spread that hit out over two years. Years 5 and 6 of the deal are never meant to be paid/completed.

One of the things I've liked about the packers over the years is that they tend to sign deals that could realistically be finished, rather than force early exits and create dead money. That is fiscally prudent in the long term. But when you have multiple players trying to hit artificial barriers of "highest paid," like Bakh did a year ago. Like Rodgers did 3 years ago. Like Adams is doing now.... you either bend on that principle and get it done, or stick to that principle and get outbid.

Anyway, I'm fine with whatever outcome happens here. But I did want to sketch out that there IS a path forward that should satisfy all parties, so long as you're willing to fudge some long-term numbers for it.

[NCF]

In year 4 of the deal, we'd have to choose between a $28 million cap number or releasing him for a $20 million dead money hit ($8 million savings). But a post-June1st release could spread that hit out over two years. Years 5 and 6 of the deal are never meant to be paid/completed.

So, assuming Jordan Love takes over next year, this is right in the sweet spot of "building up the next window", so to speak. I struggle that he would be worth that cap and I struggle with the dead money at that point. Very tough deal to get done, for sure.

[YoHoChecko]

In year 4 of the deal, we'd have to choose between a $28 million cap number or releasing him for a $20 million dead money hit ($8 million savings). But a post-June1st release could spread that hit out over two years. Years 5 and 6 of the deal are never meant to be paid/completed.

So, assuming Jordan Love takes over next year, this is right in the sweet spot of "building up the next window", so to speak. I struggle that he would be worth that cap and I struggle with the dead money at that point. Very tough deal to get done, for sure.

Yeah, so we gotta draft Trey Burks and/or Drake London with our multiple first round picks next year. I cannot imagine a better fit for our offense than Burks; he's like a bigger AJ Brown. 6'3" 235, but the movement skills of a legit WR. I'm already locked in.