Packers Huddle

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 11:56**

BF004 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:50
How about the Saints and Falcons??

Looking slightly ahead to 2022, Saint actually have a little room there, but Eagles and Falcons still damn tight against it.

Falcons may have the worst outlook of any team in the league looking forward 2-5 years.

I have no idea what I did wrong, I just clicked on your link, but it didn't load right last time, but now it seems to have?

: image.png (81.47 KiB) Viewed 407 times

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 11:57**

BF004 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:56

BF004 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:50
How about the Saints and Falcons??

Looking slightly ahead to 2022, Saint actually have a little room there, but Eagles and Falcons still damn tight against it.

Falcons may have the worst outlook of any team in the league looking forward 2-5 years.

image.png

I have no idea what I did wrong, I just clicked on your link, but it didn't load right last time, but now it seems to have?

image.png

Ya, something was way off with the Eagles in their database, but seems to have corrected pretty quickly. I saw exactly what you posted earlier.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:02**

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:45
Here is our biggest issue with resignings right now:
2020 Cap Space - $11,683,276, Aaron Rodgers Cap Hit - $21,642,000 10.61%
2021 Cap Space - $16,402,784, Aaron Rodgers Cap Hit - $36,352,000 18.34%

2021 Team Salary Caps - https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

Holy crap are the Eagles $%@# after 2020.

We'll be fine.

We can partially convert Smith Bros. and Amos roster bonuses to signing bonuses this year and/or next year. We can release Turner after this year if he loses his job. We can bail on Wagner after a year if someone replaces him. We can structure extensions to be very small in 20/21/22, depending on whose extension, when it happens, and how long we extend.

I generally don't like can-kicking, but in an environment in which we might see a temporary dip in the cap followed by large increases when the new TV deals come in, it makes a ton of sense, and the rest of the league will be in the same boat.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:15**

Our cap situation with the Rodgers contract does make it tough to resign the good players we have. Converting contracts of current players without an extension, doesn't really get use anywhere as cap space can roll over. Kicking the can to 2022 or 2023 is about all we can do when we resign some of these guys.

What we have coming up in 2021 for free agents:
Kenny Clark
David Bahktiari
Corey Linsley
Kevin King
Allen Lazard
Aaron Jones

Cutting Turner in 2021 gives us $3.5 million, while cutting Wagner gets us $4.25, plus it leaves a hole on the line with question marks on filling (regardless of how good or bad one believes those 2 are).

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:25**

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 12:15
Our cap situation with the Rodgers contract does make it tough to resign the good players we have. Converting contracts of current players without an extension, doesn't really get use anywhere as cap space can roll over. Kicking the can to 2022 or 2023 is about all we can do when we resign some of these guys.

What we have coming up in 2021 for free agents:
Kenny Clark
David Bahktiari
Corey Linsley
Kevin King
Allen Lazard
Aaron Jones

Cutting Turner in 2021 gives us $3.5 million, while cutting Wagner gets us $4.25, plus it leaves a hole on the line with question marks on filling (regardless of how good or bad one believes those 2 are).

I think the big thing that could be done and probably has to be done is kicking the can with Rodgers.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:28**

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 12:15
Our cap situation with the Rodgers contract does make it tough to resign the good players we have. Converting contracts of current players without an extension, doesn't really get use anywhere as cap space can roll over. Kicking the can to 2022 or 2023 is about all we can do when we resign some of these guys.

What we have coming up in 2021 for free agents:
Kenny Clark
David Bahktiari
Corey Linsley
Kevin King
Allen Lazard
Aaron Jones

In this environment, that is exactly what I am suggesting, yes. Kick that can to 2022/23 and let the TV negotiations and the end of Rodgers' tenure prepare us for the future. Re-sign a handful of key pieces listed above and kick that window open for the next 3 years, and since we do have a new TV deal coming and we do have Rodgers' expiring or traded contract, it's not a long-term sacrifice in the least.

What every team should be doing with the uncertainty of COVID is structuring team salaries to expand after 2021. It's the right thing to do right now. And it's not a particularly hard thing to do. The Saints have done it for like 5 years and will eventually have to pay the piper in Brees dead money. We don't even have that dead money issue looming. We get out at the end, unless we try to re-renegotiate Rodgers and create the exact same dead money issue the Saints have

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:33**

I say just re-sign Clark, Baktiari, and Jones; make them backloaded deals. Mess with the Smith bonuses to clear like $6-8 mil over the next two years, move on from Lazard, King, and Linsley, draft a CB in the top 3 rounds in 2021, and call it a day. Honestly, I know it's tight but we're totally fine. This is completely manageable. We likely can't keep 5 of the 6 listed here, but we can definitely keep 3 and conceivably 4 if they get aggressive with it.

I would be against re-kicking the Rodgers can. That's a complex problem as it is.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:38**

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 12:02
I generally don't like can-kicking, but in an environment in which we might see a temporary dip in the cap followed by large increases when the new TV deals come in, it makes a ton of sense, and the rest of the league will be in the same boat.

If there was ever a time to can kick though, its near the end of a HOF QB's career, eek out as much as you can while you have that asset.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 12:57**

Let's take a look then at some fair market values for some of these guys:

Kenny Clark - You have Aaron Donald with a $22.5 million average to Grady Jarrett with a $17 million average rounding out the top 5. I think we can reasonably expect to sign Clark for $18 million on the low end with a 4-5 year contract length. Probably a signing bonus of around $15 to $20 million. We are probably looking at $8 million in cap hit for Clark, on the low end for the first year.

David Bakhtiari - You have Laremy Tunsil with a $22 million average to D.J. Humphries with a $14.58 average rounding out the top 5. I wouldn't expect anything less than a $20 million average over 4 years and a $15 million signing bonus at least (he got a $15 million bonus on his last contract). So again, let's assume around a $9 million cap hit for Bakhtiari for the first year.

Corey Linsley - J.C. Tretter is number 5 with a $10.85 million contract average with Weston Richburg rounding out the top 10 with a $9.5 average. Let's put Linsley in there with a $10 million contract for 4 years. Let's give him an $8 million signing bonus, which he got last time. Probably looking at $5 million for a first year front loaded contract.

Kevin King - Desmond Trufant is tied at #15 comes in with a $10 million contract average and Jonathan Jones is in at #25 with $7 million. Put King in there with an $8 million low end CB contract for 4 years. Probably looking like an $8 million signing bonus. Give King a $4.5 million first year cap hit.

Aaron Jones - Derrick Henry comes in at 5 with $12.5 million, dropping all the way to Mark Ingram with $7 million at 10. Let's say $10 million for Jones over 3 years. $10 million signing bonus. Have him coming in at $5.5 million for a year 1 cap hit.

I don't think my numbers are way off and might even be very team friendly. With that we are looking at $32 million to sign those 5 guys. We currently have $28 million in cap space between 2020 and 2021 and that will go down with back end roster and free agent 2020 signings. Let's leave it at $28 million for now. Cur Wagner and Turner to save $7.75 million and we have $35.75 million in cap space. Sign those 5 to team friendly deal for $32 million and we have $3.75 million left in 2021 to sign anyone else.

2021 is not going to be an easy cap year for the Packers.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 13:00**

Mess with the Smith bonuses to clear like $6-8 mil over the next two years

This doesn't help us save money unless we extend them or convert their base/guaranteed 2021 salaries to 2022 roster bonuses, but why would they allow us to do that?

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 13:02**

Linsley is, by far, the lowest priority for me. Even though that $5M hardly moves the needle, I think he is one guy you let walk no matter what.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 13:07**

Moving on from the entire right side of our line plus center would be tough. I am just not on the bandwagon that 6th round pick Jon Runyan is automatically the RG/RT replacement or that Lucas Patrick is anything more than a good backup.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 13:26**

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 13:07
Moving on from the entire right side of our line plus center would to tough. I am just not on the bandwagon that 6th round pick Jon Runyan is automatically the RG/RT replacement or that Lucas Patrick is anything more than a good backup.

Yeah, would have love if we had gotten a couple of high picks on the OL. Would be really nice to get some starters on rookie contracts, had 0 heading into last year if you count Lane Taylor. Now on one heading into this year with 2 backups on 2nd contrats. Maybe some of these late rounders will pan out, but wouldn't really bank on any of them doing it.

But with Bakhtiari likely to be making top 5 OL money going forward, yeah, Linsley gone and your really gunna have to consider cutting Turner and/or Wagner.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 13:38**

The OL franchise tag value is much less than i was anticipating.

I really wouldn't be opposed to keeping Bak year to year at maybe 15.5 million for 2021 and then, 18.6 in 2022, 22.32 in 2023.

That is 56.4 over three years, so I wouldn't be offering him much more than that first 3 years. Throw on a dummy year of $25 million in year 4, so he'll get that 20+ per figure and that will force you to renegotiate or release likely before year 4.

recap on tag values: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agen ... both-tags/

Franchise and transition tenders are calculated by adding the respective tag numbers, divided by the sum of the salary caps, from the previous five seasons, and finally multipled by the current season's salary cap. Franchise tag figures are based upon the top five salaries at each respective position, while transition tag figures are based on the top ten

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 14:08**

Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reports players who test positive will be placed on a 'COVID-19 list' for three weeks.

It’s unclear what will happen if a player on the COVID-19 list can’t return to practice after three weeks. A player being moved to said list will occur as if they were being moved to injured reserve, creating a roster spot that would then be filled with a player (presumably from every organization's expanded practice squad) who is negative for the virus. Fantasy players would be wise to start discussing their home re-draft league rules for this upcoming season as soon as possible.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 14:09**

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:48

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:32
Several factors are against Jones. To begin we just drafted a back in the 2nd round. 2nd round players need to become starters. Even if he just gets 40% of the snaps at RB thats still too low for a 2nd round player in my opinion. This is a Casey Hayward and Damarious Randall type situation. I would possibly be on board for resigning Jones (although probably still against it) if we didnt already invest resources into the position but we did.

Jones also has only had 1 healthy season. Sure it was a good year but he just barely eclipsed 1000 yards. Years back 1000 was the standard of great but that not really the case today. Henry had 1500. CMC had 1300. Jones was 12th in the league in rushing yards.

I would love to keep Jones but not for a price that he will likely get on the open market.
I agree with much of what you're saying, but you're overlooking a couple things.

1) You cite rushing yards and not scrimmage yards; Jones was 7th in scrimmage yards by a RB, which is a fuller picture of his offensive value than rushing yards.

2) You cite the Randall/Hayward situation and that was a disaster. We absolutely made the wrong choice by moving on from Hayward. Using that to encourage moving on from Jones doesn't make your point stronger.

It doesn’t need to make my point weaker or stronger. It’s just the way it is. If you keep Jones you’ve either wasted draft capital or you’ve wasted cap space or both.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 14:56**

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 14:09

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:48

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑
16 Jul 2020 11:32
Several factors are against Jones. To begin we just drafted a back in the 2nd round. 2nd round players need to become starters. Even if he just gets 40% of the snaps at RB thats still too low for a 2nd round player in my opinion. This is a Casey Hayward and Damarious Randall type situation. I would possibly be on board for resigning Jones (although probably still against it) if we didnt already invest resources into the position but we did.

Jones also has only had 1 healthy season. Sure it was a good year but he just barely eclipsed 1000 yards. Years back 1000 was the standard of great but that not really the case today. Henry had 1500. CMC had 1300. Jones was 12th in the league in rushing yards.

I would love to keep Jones but not for a price that he will likely get on the open market.
I agree with much of what you're saying, but you're overlooking a couple things.

1) You cite rushing yards and not scrimmage yards; Jones was 7th in scrimmage yards by a RB, which is a fuller picture of his offensive value than rushing yards.

2) You cite the Randall/Hayward situation and that was a disaster. We absolutely made the wrong choice by moving on from Hayward. Using that to encourage moving on from Jones doesn't make your point stronger.
It doesn’t need to make my point weaker or stronger. It’s just the way it is. If you keep Jones you’ve either wasted draft capital or you’ve wasted cap space or both.

I can't back the "we have Dillon and thus shouldn't sign Jones" argument either. Nothing wrong with having heavy and deep talent at a position. We are envious of other teams who have it so why not embrace it when we have it?

2 - 3 elite pass rushers is a good thing.
2 elite RBs is a good thing.
3 - 4 elite WRs is a good thing.

I mean I don't hear many complain of how much of a wasted pick Jordy Nelson was because he was 4th on the depth chart until his 4th/5th season in the league. What I instead hear is how much in love we were with that amazing group of WRs for 4 years.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 15:40**

I love Aaron Jones the player and the person. I feel McCarthy misused him and disrespected him. I love how Lafleur highlighted some of his great skill. I hope Jones remains a Packer. He is not just some rb. He is an elite talent that makes our O better. If we decide to move on, I will be rooting for him to recieve a MASSIVE payday. Generational wealth for the young man.

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 15:45**

to me it just boils down to production, and the ability to replace it, I havn't bothered to look (Maybe I should list them) but I doubt you'd need two hands to count up the Jones caliber RB's we've drafted in the last 40 years, is Dillon another? who knows, seems like more of a bruiser, with less shake and back, if we are going to be more run oriented I think both styles will compliment each other.

the ability of Jones as a receiver raises his value, specially sense we don't really have a #2, we have Adams, then potentially 2 maybe 3 receivers that can be that guy on any given Sunday, heck last year Jones was that player 4 or 5 times at least, imo, 10 mil. for Jones is smart money, his production wont be as easily replaced as you seem to think

Posted: **16 Jul 2020 15:47**

Unless I’m missing something...the best way to free up cap space and sign guys looking for deals would be to hope Gary becomes all we hope he can be and then we trade Preston after this year and free up 20.5 million in cap space over 2 years and hopefully Gary makes us not miss him.

I know there would be 8m in dead money in ‘21 doing this, and only 4m in ‘22. The savings would be 8m in ‘21 and 12.5m in ‘22.

I like Preston, that’s just a lot of money freed up if we have a top 15 draft pick who is capable of growing into being able to do what he provides for us.

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