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Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 11:28
by NCF
Drj820 wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:22
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 10:58
I'm going to open this post by stating that I, too, really wanted to add a top-flight WR that could win the #2 spot by mid-season. So I'm not poo-poo'ing the discussion.
But what's sorta frustrating is that almost everyone would agree with two things:
- Devin Funchess is a slight upgrade from Geronimo Allison, and...
- EQSB has more potential to help the team than Ryan Grant did last year
So, if you agree to those two things... and those are the only two changes made to the WR group... then our WR group DID get better this year. Not as much as we want. Not with an elite talent. Not with a draft pick or pricey free agent.
But if the only two changes made were positive-replacements, then we've made a positive change on the position.
So we
slightly upgraded the position from the 13-3 team while also adding to other aspects of the offense designed to make the passing game easier.
On offense,
Wagner < Bulaga
Funchess > Allison
EQSB > Ryan Grant
Sternberger =?= Jimmy Graham
Deguara >? Vitale
Dillon > Dexter Williams and probably Jamaal Williams
and even some depth...
Love > Manny Wilkins
Runyan >? Cole Madison
Like, we're actually better on offense, fairly objectively. And we're all up in arms that we're not MORE BETTER BY ENOUGH.
Is the defense better? I'm not sure. Talent-wise, Kirksey > Martinez, but in availability and consistency? Martinez takes the cake. And Tramon Williams was a very solid major contributor, now likely to be replaced by SUllivan, who was also solid in a smaler role, but is certainly more unknown... or Hollman? We don't know. And the new additions to the depth chart come from Day 3, where we shouldn't count on a lot rookie impact, barring injury.
my issue with this is that you are automatically assuming health, from players who do not deserve that benefit of the doubt. Both "upgrades" missed all of 2019. Its hard to predict how they will file back onto the field in 2020.
Wagner missed 4 games last year, kirksley has played 9 games in two seasons, EQ missed all of 19 and has 333 yards to his name for his entire career, Funchess has played in 15 games in two seasons, Even stern spent time on IR last year.
Just saying that sure we might have found replacements for guys from last year, but almost all of them we assuming to be healthy when the evidence shows they wont be.
I think the 3rd "improvement" is less overall emphasis on the WR group. Less 11 personnel, less one-on-one concepts and more of the PA passing game that is a staple of this scheme. Same as YoHo, I'm not going to turn a better WR down and I wish we could have got one, too, but I am starting to see the plan and I think part of it this group is going to be less of a focal point of the offense than it was last year. Maybe improvement is a terrible word to use, but how about minimize the liability.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 11:48
by YoHoChecko
Drj820 wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:22
my issue with this is that you are automatically assuming health, from players who do not deserve that benefit of the doubt. Both "upgrades" missed all of 2019. Its hard to predict how they will file back onto the field in 2020.
Wagner missed 4 games last year, kirksley has played 9 games in two seasons, EQ missed all of 19 and has 333 yards to his name for his entire career, Funchess has played in 15 games in two seasons, Even stern spent time on IR last year.
Just saying that sure we might have found replacements for guys from last year, but almost all of them we assuming to be healthy when the evidence shows they wont be.
I'm confused by this. First, I specifically pointed out that I'm not sure about Kirksey being an upgrade for this exact reason. And I listed Wagner as a downgrade, in part due to this reason.
The only upgrade I listed that has a health issue is Funchess, and he absolutely deserves the benefit of the doubt. Prior to ONE injury taking him out last year, he had missed only 3 games in 4 seasons. Plus, he's replacing Allison, who also missed 12 games 2 years ago.
Further, literally any player could get injured at any time. Doing any sort of roster evaluation requires you to assume that the player you're evaluating is actually healthy enough to see the field.
Same with Sternberger and EQSB. First, I didn't list Sterny as an upgrade, but a question mark. But getting two players back from a single injury is VERY frequently cited as reason for improvement. And the player EQ is likely replacing on the roster literally did not play for us. So I said he has potential to have a greater impact than Grant--greater than 0.
I'm sorry, but questioning the offensive roster based on health is just over-the-top debbie downer mode. We have 25-27 players on the offensive roster from last year and for this year. There haven't been very many changes to that roster. The changes that HAVE happened appear to be, on balance, a lean toward improved players. I'm not cherry-picking at all or relying on health because I'm not just looking at starters. I'm lining up the whole offensive roster and looking to see what's different between last year and this year. Our differences seem to be fairly clear-cut upgrades except at LT and the questions at TE.
And yes, NCF, I agree that the team is likely going to play with 3 WRs a little less. Though as I've stated before, I prefer a blend of McVay (leads the league in 3 WR sets) and Shannahan (leads the league in run plays and formations). I know MLF is more the latter than the former, but the ABILITY to roll out the personnel to spread the field when the defense/matchup allows for it makes us a better team. So yes, personnel usage may help us and yes, this draft moved in that direction. But I'm not quite willing to call that an "improvement." Your point is well-taken, though
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 14:54
by Freewheelingutey
What are they gonna do when the offense sputters and the defense gives up 300 yards rushing and 5 tds? They have done nothing to improve their run defense! Signing a guy who's played nine games in 2 years and drafting an ilb in the 5th round and hoping and praying for 2nd year jumps and no injuries isnt exactly fixing the problem.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 15:06
by Drj820
Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 14:54
What are they gonna do when the offense sputters and the defense gives up 300 yards rushing and 5 tds? They have done nothing to improve their run defense! Signing a guy who's played nine games in 2 years and drafting an ilb in the 5th round and hoping and praying for 2nd year jumps and no injuries isnt exactly fixing the problem.
I agree with you, but i think the answer is simply that this a long term ripple effect of being so bad in the draft for several years in a row. We ignored the offense for years while we threw draft picks away at the defense. Pick after Pick. And the D improved through free agency, but still has plenty of issues.
At some point we had to give the offensive minded coach what he needs to be successful. Now we all thought that would be a better WR, but he chose a different route. And he got catered to this draft. I also desperately wanted an ILB, and i definetely think we need big upgrades at RE and DE. But at this point i guess i accept that the D has been given draft capital for years, and a massive almost blank check last year in free agency. Its time for Pettine to make it work.
This offense was Lafleurs time to open christmas presents. He didnt have the shopping list we all expected, but he got his presents, and we just dont have the cap space to fill every hole, or the draft picks to fill every need i suppose.
(although in principle i agree with you that even after all the drafts and money to fix it, there is still massive holes bc of bad drafts.)
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 15:37
by YoHoChecko
Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 14:54
What are they gonna do when the offense sputters and the defense gives up 300 yards rushing and 5 tds? They have done nothing to improve their run defense! Signing a guy who's played nine games in 2 years and drafting an ilb in the 5th round and hoping and praying for 2nd year jumps and no injuries isnt exactly fixing the problem.
Let's also remember that our defense was pretty good against most teams last year. I think it's fairly easy to overreact to the two 49ers games, both because they are very good at what they do and because the HC and DC of that team know our coach inside and out--former coworkers AND great friends. I think some more coaching experience will help, honestly. And while the goal is certainly to beat the best, if we, say, matched up against the Saints and not the 49ers, our D was in a much better position to succeed.
The defense's weaknesses are more up the middle in the short-to-intermediate game, and while the 49ers have the FB, TE, running game, and slot WRs to punish us for that, there aren't a lot of teams that can match that talent level at those positions.
I, too, want to improve the D and am wary of replacing Martinez (who I agree needed to be replaced) with Kirksey alone given his injury history. I'm still hoping for a DT addition from the veteran pool to supplement or replace Adams or Lancaster in the run D department (a draft pick at DT likely wouldn't have helped this year, anyway, while LBs frequently make early impacts).
I'm very much hoping that we'll use that last bit of cap space (and maybe more of it by cutting Lane Taylor now that we added 3 late OL) to add Snacks Harrison or Marcel Dareus to the mix (the latter would be very exciting to me, but feels likely to be more expensive). Both would be instant run D upgrades, both are available, the comp pick deadline has passed for Dareus so there's no impact there. And it would give Kirksey and whoever emerges from our hodgepodge of young LBs behind him a better chance to succeed.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 16:47
by Captain_Ben
Much is being made in the national media about the fact that the Packers didn't "draft Rodgers an early round WR." In defense of the front office, the rewards of that pick may not have ever been realized during Rodgers' tenure. I say this because Rodgers has been notorious for requiring lots of time to mesh with receivers. Hell Adams was in his &%$@ house for like his first 2 seasons. We already have MVS and ESB in development and I do not think the FO is planning on throwing in the towel on them. In fact, if either of those guys were going to have a breakout year, it'd be this season. AR has chemistry with them at this point- something people overlook when evaluating GB WR's.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 16:55
by YoHoChecko
Captain_Ben wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 16:47
Much is being made in the national media about the fact that the Packers didn't "draft Rodgers an early round WR." In defense of the front office, the rewards of that pick may not have ever been realized during Rodgers' tenure. I say this because Rodgers has been notorious for requiring lots of time to mesh with receivers. Hell Adams was in his &%$@ house for like his first 2 seasons. We already have MVS and ESB in development and I do not think the FO is planning on throwing in the towel on them. In fact, if either of those guys were going to have a breakout year, it'd be this season. AR has chemistry with them at this point- something people overlook when evaluating GB WR's.
haha, "much is being made" is a HUGE understatement. Good grief it's bad out there.
But yes, that's a point [mention]Waldo[/mention] has made several times--that rookie WRs aren't likely to make a big contribution. There were some guys in this draft who were ready to and who will--probably more guys in this draft than normal. But the "Rodgers wants to trust his guys" aspect plus the "we won't have a normal offseason" aspect make it a longshot for early-season additions. It's one of the reasons I tried to focus on guys who could play a defined gadget role even before they're all the way ready, or guys whose route-running was so crisp and disciplined that they could adapt more quickly.
I really just still cannot get over the elimination of the mindset that defense and running games HELP QBs. I'm not a "defense-and-running-game is the path to victory" kind of guy. I love a splashy offense. But to say that improving those things is somehow a detriment to a QB or a swipe at him is kind of insane. It's obviously helpful to Aaron Rodgers if the opposition defense has more aspects to defend
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 16:58
by Freewheelingutey
Even Seattle exposed them in the 2nd half..if that game went any longer..it might have been a loss. Eagles also did.I think alot of teams will go back to the film from those games and try to pound the middle of the defense and try getting their te's more involved. I really hope they do get Harrison or Dareus..heck even Daniels for a year might be a cheap band aid.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 17:03
by YoHoChecko
Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 16:58
Even Seattle exposed them in the 2nd half..if that game went any longer..it might have been a loss. Eagles also did.I think alot of teams will go back to the film from those games and try to pound the middle of the defense and try getting their te's more involved. I really hope they do get Harrison or Dareus..heck even Daniels for a year might be a cheap band aid.
The Packers went up by 2-3 scores on a lot of teams who then "came roaring back" or whatever. We won all of those games, I believe. I'm not really overly concerned with "we almost lost the big lead" narratives and I think the Packers fans are over-sensitive to it given the Sehawks NFCCG a few years ago.
But if that IS your problem, drafting the best power running back in the draft is a much better solution to closing out games that we're leading than an ILB or DT ever would be.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 17:33
by Drj820
Ha the quotes from this interview are something. You know brett is secretly loving this.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 17:56
by Pckfn23
Only one team ever has not been exposed at some point during the season. The 1972 Dolphins. So excuse me when I don't get all bent out of shape about a loss here and there.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 19:13
by Freewheelingutey
He is also a rookie 2nd rd draft pick. How do we know that he will play much. Shortened offseason, pros vs college. Need to know blocking schemes and how to pick up blitzes. Also has to gain Aaron's trust.
Gary was picked 12 last year, barely played. Dillon would have to at least be as good or better than Williams to play much. Maybe they just put him out there and let him play..who knows.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 19:23
by YoHoChecko
Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 19:13
He is also a rookie 2nd rd draft pick. How do we know that he will play much. Shortened offseason, pros vs college. Need to know blocking schemes and how to pick up blitzes. Also has to gain Aaron's trust.
Gary was picked 12 last year, barely played. Dillon would have to at least be as good or better than Williams to play much. Maybe they just put him out there and let him play..who knows.
So now your point is that rookies don't make much of an impact?
Soooo.... it doesn't matter who we drafted?
You can't complain that we didn't draft defensive help and then claim that the offensive help we drafted won't have an impact because it's a rookie.
Which side do you want here?
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 19:45
by go pak go
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 19:57
by Pugger
Drj820 wrote: ↑28 Apr 2020 20:39
bud fox wrote: ↑28 Apr 2020 20:24
I don't think anyone would care if we got quality wr free agents or had quality wrs already on the roster. We don't.
How many TD's on average per player has 1st round wrs scored compared to 5th round wrs?
Exactly. This is only being brought up because outside of Adams, his receivers suck. I mean 52% of snaps from WRs last year were from UDFAs. Lets just be honest and admit that sucks.
But for most of Rodgers career he had great talent at WR. An Adams, Cobb, Jennings, Driver, and a Jordy is awesome. What that tweet is trying to say is that he has never had talent at WR, thats bogus..the truth is he just doesnt right now outside of one guy.
Yes, this WR corps last year wasn't full of Pro Bowlers but AR wasn't an accurate as he has been in the past.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 20:06
by Pugger
Drj820 wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:22
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 10:58
I'm going to open this post by stating that I, too, really wanted to add a top-flight WR that could win the #2 spot by mid-season. So I'm not poo-poo'ing the discussion.
But what's sorta frustrating is that almost everyone would agree with two things:
- Devin Funchess is a slight upgrade from Geronimo Allison, and...
- EQSB has more potential to help the team than Ryan Grant did last year
So, if you agree to those two things... and those are the only two changes made to the WR group... then our WR group DID get better this year. Not as much as we want. Not with an elite talent. Not with a draft pick or pricey free agent.
But if the only two changes made were positive-replacements, then we've made a positive change on the position.
So we
slightly upgraded the position from the 13-3 team while also adding to other aspects of the offense designed to make the passing game easier.
On offense,
Wagner < Bulaga
Funchess > Allison
EQSB > Ryan Grant
Sternberger =?= Jimmy Graham
Deguara >? Vitale
Dillon > Dexter Williams and probably Jamaal Williams
and even some depth...
Love > Manny Wilkins
Runyan >? Cole Madison
Like, we're actually better on offense, fairly objectively. And we're all up in arms that we're not MORE BETTER BY ENOUGH.
Is the defense better? I'm not sure. Talent-wise, Kirksey > Martinez, but in availability and consistency? Martinez takes the cake. And Tramon Williams was a very solid major contributor, now likely to be replaced by SUllivan, who was also solid in a smaler role, but is certainly more unknown... or Hollman? We don't know. And the new additions to the depth chart come from Day 3, where we shouldn't count on a lot rookie impact, barring injury.
my issue with this is that you are automatically assuming health, from players who do not deserve that benefit of the doubt. Both "upgrades" missed all of 2019. Its hard to predict how they will file back onto the field in 2020.
Wagner missed 4 games last year, kirksley has played 9 games in two seasons, EQ missed all of 19 and has 333 yards to his name for his entire career, Funchess has played in 15 games in two seasons, Even stern spent time on IR last year.
Just saying that sure we might have found replacements for guys from last year, but almost all of them we assuming to be healthy when the evidence shows they wont be.
Wagner missed 4 games last year but if you look at Bulaga's career he has missed a lot of games too iver the years. Wagner isn't Bulaga but you don't play 8+ years in this league with smoke and mirrors..
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 20:12
by NCF
Pugger wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 20:06
Wagner isn't Bulaga but you don't play 8+ years in this league with smoke and mirrors..
Or become the highest paid RT in the game.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 20:15
by Pugger
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 17:03
Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 16:58
Even Seattle exposed them in the 2nd half..if that game went any longer..it might have been a loss. Eagles also did.I think alot of teams will go back to the film from those games and try to pound the middle of the defense and try getting their te's more involved. I really hope they do get Harrison or Dareus..heck even Daniels for a year might be a cheap band aid.
The Packers went up by 2-3 scores on a lot of teams who then "came roaring back" or whatever. We won all of those games, I believe. I'm not really overly concerned with "we almost lost the big lead" narratives and I think the Packers fans are over-sensitive to it given the Sehawks NFCCG a few years ago.
But if that IS your problem, drafting the best power running back in the draft is a much better solution to closing out games that we're leading than an ILB or DT ever would be.
How many times does one team get a lead and then go into the dreaded "prevent defense" only to have the other team get some late game scores?
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 29 Apr 2020 20:21
by go pak go
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:48
Drj820 wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:22
my issue with this is that you are automatically assuming health, from players who do not deserve that benefit of the doubt. Both "upgrades" missed all of 2019. Its hard to predict how they will file back onto the field in 2020.
Wagner missed 4 games last year, kirksley has played 9 games in two seasons, EQ missed all of 19 and has 333 yards to his name for his entire career, Funchess has played in 15 games in two seasons, Even stern spent time on IR last year.
Just saying that sure we might have found replacements for guys from last year, but almost all of them we assuming to be healthy when the evidence shows they wont be.
I'm confused by this. First, I specifically pointed out that I'm not sure about Kirksey being an upgrade for this exact reason. And I listed Wagner as a downgrade, in part due to this reason.
The only upgrade I listed that has a health issue is Funchess, and he absolutely deserves the benefit of the doubt. Prior to ONE injury taking him out last year, he had missed only 3 games in 4 seasons. Plus, he's replacing Allison, who also missed 12 games 2 years ago.
Further, literally any player could get injured at any time. Doing any sort of roster evaluation requires you to assume that the player you're evaluating is actually healthy enough to see the field.
Same with Sternberger and EQSB. First, I didn't list Sterny as an upgrade, but a question mark. But getting two players back from a single injury is VERY frequently cited as reason for improvement. And the player EQ is likely replacing on the roster literally did not play for us. So I said he has potential to have a greater impact than Grant--greater than 0.
I'm sorry, but questioning the offensive roster based on health is just over-the-top debbie downer mode. We have 25-27 players on the offensive roster from last year and for this year. There haven't been very many changes to that roster. The changes that HAVE happened appear to be, on balance, a lean toward improved players. I'm not cherry-picking at all or relying on health because I'm not just looking at starters. I'm lining up the whole offensive roster and looking to see what's different between last year and this year. Our differences seem to be fairly clear-cut upgrades except at LT and the questions at TE.
And yes, NCF, I agree that the team is likely going to play with 3 WRs a little less. Though as I've stated before, I prefer a blend of McVay (leads the league in 3 WR sets) and Shannahan (leads the league in run plays and formations). I know MLF is more the latter than the former, but the ABILITY to roll out the personnel to spread the field when the defense/matchup allows for it makes us a better team. So yes, personnel usage may help us and yes, this draft moved in that direction. But I'm not quite willing to call that an "improvement." Your point is well-taken, though
I don't know how fair it is to be petrified of Kirksey not finishing the season either. Have some thoughts? Sure.
But we as Packers fans seem so snake bitten on injuries. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Kirksey had 2 ACL injuries but beyond that has always been healthy.
It was the exact same thing I said about Bulaga last year.
Clay Matthews hamstrings. Justin Harrell's back. JFin's constant concussions. Those are reasons for real concerns because those are pattern injuries.
Re: 2020 General Draft Discussion
Posted: 30 Apr 2020 08:18
by Drj820
go pak go wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 20:21
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:48
Drj820 wrote: ↑29 Apr 2020 11:22
my issue with this is that you are automatically assuming health, from players who do not deserve that benefit of the doubt. Both "upgrades" missed all of 2019. Its hard to predict how they will file back onto the field in 2020.
Wagner missed 4 games last year, kirksley has played 9 games in two seasons, EQ missed all of 19 and has 333 yards to his name for his entire career, Funchess has played in 15 games in two seasons, Even stern spent time on IR last year.
Just saying that sure we might have found replacements for guys from last year, but almost all of them we assuming to be healthy when the evidence shows they wont be.
I'm confused by this. First, I specifically pointed out that I'm not sure about Kirksey being an upgrade for this exact reason. And I listed Wagner as a downgrade, in part due to this reason.
The only upgrade I listed that has a health issue is Funchess, and he absolutely deserves the benefit of the doubt. Prior to ONE injury taking him out last year, he had missed only 3 games in 4 seasons. Plus, he's replacing Allison, who also missed 12 games 2 years ago.
Further, literally any player could get injured at any time. Doing any sort of roster evaluation requires you to assume that the player you're evaluating is actually healthy enough to see the field.
Same with Sternberger and EQSB. First, I didn't list Sterny as an upgrade, but a question mark. But getting two players back from a single injury is VERY frequently cited as reason for improvement. And the player EQ is likely replacing on the roster literally did not play for us. So I said he has potential to have a greater impact than Grant--greater than 0.
I'm sorry, but questioning the offensive roster based on health is just over-the-top debbie downer mode. We have 25-27 players on the offensive roster from last year and for this year. There haven't been very many changes to that roster. The changes that HAVE happened appear to be, on balance, a lean toward improved players. I'm not cherry-picking at all or relying on health because I'm not just looking at starters. I'm lining up the whole offensive roster and looking to see what's different between last year and this year. Our differences seem to be fairly clear-cut upgrades except at LT and the questions at TE.
And yes, NCF, I agree that the team is likely going to play with 3 WRs a little less. Though as I've stated before, I prefer a blend of McVay (leads the league in 3 WR sets) and Shannahan (leads the league in run plays and formations). I know MLF is more the latter than the former, but the ABILITY to roll out the personnel to spread the field when the defense/matchup allows for it makes us a better team. So yes, personnel usage may help us and yes, this draft moved in that direction. But I'm not quite willing to call that an "improvement." Your point is well-taken, though
I don't know how fair it is to be petrified of Kirksey not finishing the season either. Have some thoughts? Sure.
But we as Packers fans seem so snake bitten on injuries. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Kirksey had 2 ACL injuries but beyond that has always been healthy.
It was the exact same thing I said about Bulaga last year.
Clay Matthews hamstrings. Justin Harrell's back. JFin's constant concussions. Those are reasons for real concerns because those are pattern injuries.
i definitely think injuries are a very real thing to be concerned with Kirksley about, but luckily injuries were factored into his price to sign and salary for next season. So the market also sees it as a factor, i would just hope the team would see it that way too and make contingency plans, aka next time a vet like josh bynes is available, sign him for cheap like the ravens did last year, and the bengals have already done.
