2021 NFL Draft Discussion

[paco]

Devonta Smith weighed in at 166lbs Him and Tutu together make 1 normal sized NFL player.

[Pckfn23]

Atwell I wouldn't touch before round 4. Smith not before round 3.

[go pak go]

Atwell I wouldn't touch before round 4. Smith not before round 3.

They are actually children.

[YoHoChecko]

I mean, everyone expected Smith to be like 168-170 from what I could tell, so his isn't far off.

Atwell was listed at 190, which everyone knew was a lie; some went off of his first year or two at Louisville listing at 175. But most expected/predicted around 160. Recently reported to be 155. And then confirmed weight even 5 pounds lower below 150? Yikes. You can at least find guys Smith's size playing in the NFL. Atwell? He's useless to me at the next level. Totally off my board. (This has been true). Smith? He can still be Isaac Bruce (a great player comp for him I recently heard and really like) or Marvin Harrison, even if he's a little lighter.

[paco]

Atwell I wouldn't touch before round 4. Smith not before round 3.

They are actually children.

Atwell wouldn't be on my draft board. Smith is different, but still a bit worrisome. I still think he goes top 15.

I was 6'0" 185lbs entering my freshman year in high school. I was almost 6'2" around 200 by the time I graduated. Granted I was as big or bigger than many of the football players we had too.

[paco]

Supposedly Chad Johnson played around 160lbs at some point.

[go pak go]

Atwell I wouldn't touch before round 4. Smith not before round 3.

They are actually children.

Atwell wouldn't be on my draft board. Smith is different, but still a bit worrisome. I still think he goes top 15.

I was 6'0" 185lbs entering my freshman year in high school. I was almost 6'2" around 200 by the time I graduated. Granted I was as big or bigger than many of the football players we had too.

Yeah I get that.

I was 5' 11" and 130 pounds as a college freshman and then left college at 195 and benching 225 8 times. I get you can grow. But I also know when I was ~135 pounds....I would get destroyed by anyone on our Division II college football team let alone an NFL player.

[paco]

I wanted to look back at Gutey's draft day trades from the past 3 years and the value. Thought it would be good info to keep on hand. There were fewer than I remembered. I left out trades of players/picks that happened before the draft (like Ha Ha, Kizer, etc). Here's the list I found. Let me know if I'm missing anything.

2018
*Gave 1.14, Got 1.27, 5.147, 2019 1st from the Saints (ended up 1.30)
This was the Marcus Davenport trade. Depending how you value the future 1st affects who "won" this trade on the value chart. I valued it as a 2.62 pick as typically future 1sts are valued 1 round less. That puts the trade at a significant win for the Saints by 103.8 points. But if you value that pick higher, it favors us more.

*Gave 1.27, 3.76, 6.186, Got 1.18, 7.248 from Seahawks. This favored the Seahawks slightly (4.9). This got us Jaire (and Kendall Donnerson) so I call it a win.

*Gave 4.101, 5.147 Got 3.88 from the Panthers. Value favored the Packers (21.8), but all we got was Oren Burks.

2019
*Gave 1.30, 4.114, 4.118 Got 1.21. Using our pick from the Saints last year and some 4ths we traded up for Savage. Value wise it favored the Seahawks (56). But I still like the move.

2020
*Gave 1.30, 4.136 Got 1.26 from the Dolphins. Value in favor of the Dolphins (42). We drafted our 3rd straight HOF QB with this pick.

[YoHoChecko]

Ugh, this makes me so mad I lost so much when my work laptop crashed last year. I have a spreadsheet of all Packers draft trades dating back to like 2005... but thanks for bringing this.

Depending how you value the future 1st affects who "won" this trade on the value chart. I valued it as a 2.62 pick as typically future 1sts are valued 1 round less.

My understanding has always been that you consider future picks as "pick 16" of the round lower since it's the middle of the draft and draft position is unpredictable. By that standard, if I recall, the trade is very balanced.

Which chart did you use?

[paco]

Ugh, this makes me so mad I lost so much when my work laptop crashed last year. I have a spreadsheet of all Packers draft trades dating back to like 2005... but thanks for bringing this.

Depending how you value the future 1st affects who "won" this trade on the value chart. I valued it as a 2.62 pick as typically future 1sts are valued 1 round less.

My understanding has always been that you consider future picks as "pick 16" of the round lower since it's the middle of the draft and draft position is unpredictable. By that standard, if I recall, the trade is very balanced.

Which chart did you use?

This is the site I used to find the Packers trades.
https://www.prosportstransactions.com/f ... des/Years/

I did use the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, but I was going to go back and look a the Rich Hill chart as well to compare.

And you are correct, if you put it at 16 that puts it around 31 points in our favor on the Jimmy chart.

[BSA]

2018
*Gave 1.14, Got 1.27, 5.147, 2019 1st from the Saints (ended up 1.30)
This was the Marcus Davenport trade. Depending how you value the future 1st affects who "won" this trade on the value chart. I valued it as a 2.62 pick as typically future 1sts are valued 1 round less. That puts the trade at a significant win for the Saints by 103.8 points.
But if you value that pick higher, it favors us more.

Fair enough.
I think the Packers "won" that trade, netting Jaire and Savage while the saints got a potential bust in Davenport.
My comment on valuing future picks: there is a wide variety of opinions on the topic, including the old saw about de-valuing futures by a round.
But using 2.62 just isn't reflective of the intrinsic value. There is certainly a time component to it - you don't get to reap the reward till next year.

However, when next year rolls around, that's a first round pick (1.30) and nobody would trade that straight up for a 2.62 would they ? So it really isn't all that useful to call it a 2.62 when making a post-draft evaluation. You're not alone in doing it- but it doesn't make as much sense in the real world. Many times players are drafted knowing they need a red-shirt season to develop ( Rodgers) or recover from an injury ( DT Jeffrey Simmons) and we don't discount their value as a first rounder. I understand the time-value concept, I just think reality is different than the traditional spreadsheet evals suggest.
.

[Christo]

An in-depth top 50.
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/list ... yle-pitts/

OK, can someone explain to me Gil Brandt's rating on Sam Cosmi ? He's got him at 100 vs 36 by USA Todays rating ?
Is there an injury that's come up recently ?

[BF004]

Really struggling to find draft crushes this year.

Maybe just Toney, but he has his warts.

I love the idea of another safety like Trevon Moehrig, but I also just don’t love him.

Really like Patrick Surtain, but he’ll be long gone.



Who are your top 5’s right now with a fair likelihood of being available at 29?

[YoHoChecko]

Who are your top 5’s right now with a fair likelihood of being available at 29?

Just for round one?....

Greg Newsome,
Rashod Bateman,
Elijah Moore,
Zaven Collins,

Asante Samuel, Jr? Christian Barmore?
I'm struggling to find a 5th. And I bet 3 of my 4 are gone by 29; but I'm stretching "fair likelihood" for some

[YoHoChecko]

Who are your top 5’s right now with a fair likelihood of being available at 29?

Just for round one?....

Greg Newsome,
Rashod Bateman,
Elijah Moore,
Zaven Collins,

Asante Samuel, Jr? Christian Barmore?
I'm struggling to find a 5th. And I bet 3 of my 4 are gone by 29; but I'm stretching "fair likelihood" for some

Also, I have "traded back" and mocked most of these guys to the Packers, yet don't think they'll be there at our actual pick; part of that is shifting opinions, and part of that is how obviously I want to have it both ways with draft capital and value picks.

[YoHoChecko]

I've also been thinking about guys I really like but not for us because of when they'll go or what they play:

Rondale Moore: LOVE him. Just can't with the 5'7". I'll enjoy watching him as someone else's risk

Pat Friermuth: such a safe TE pick and I think will turn out really really good. But if we took a Day Two TE I'd be very sad.

Richie Grant: a really good safety prospect in round 2, but same with an early safety

Feel the same about Quinn Meinerz even though we do NEED a C, which is weird.

Sort of like some earlyish EDGEs, too, like Ossai from Texas

[Yoop]

Silverstein: Towering tackles could present needy Packers with a draft dilemma
Tom Silverstein
Packers News

GREEN BAY - Only general manager Brian Gutekunst knows for sure which player he favors most in the 2021 NFL draft and it may stay that way until he and his scouting staff are sequestered in their draft room for Round 1 on April 29.

The strength of this draft may be offensive tackle and given the Packers have some needs on the offensive line, it’s very possible Gutekunst will be dipping into that pool.

What makes this group different than recent ones – besides the abundance of talent – is the proliferation of 6-foot-6 and above prospects. If you like your tackles tall, long-levered and constructed physically to pass protect, you’re in luck this year.

"There are more than I can ever remember,” said a college scout for a team interested in tackles. “I’m not sure exactly why. But I think the colleges are saying the ball is coming out really fast, so if a guy has length, he can ride guys around the pocket.”


There are 15 tackles (some may wind up at guard in the NFL) who measure 6-6 or taller, including six who are 6-7 or taller.

The group includes 6-9 Drew Himmelman of Illinois State, 6-8 Spencer Brown of Northern Iowa, Tommy Doyle of Miami and Stone Forsythe of Florida, and 6-7½ Grant Hermanns of Purdue, Walker Little of Stanford and Josh Ball of Marshall.

It’s the most 6-6 or taller tackles in the past five years, surpassing 2019’s total of 10.

Stanford offensive lineman Walker Little stands 6-foot-7 1/2.
The Packers didn’t draft any of those players dating to the 2017 draft, but they did sign 6-6¾ Yosh Nijman in 2019 as an undrafted free agent out of Virginia Tech. They saw enough potential to keep him on the practice squad as a rookie and stash him on the 53-man roster all last year despite playing him on just 28 snaps from scrimmage.


As a rule, the Packers have avoided exceptionally tall tackles despite the fact they have thrown the ball much of the time with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and have valued pass protection more than run blocking.

Their left tackle, David Bakhtiari, looks like a tall tackle because he’s got long legs, but he measures in at 6-4¼. Longtime right tackle Bryan Bulaga is a classic 6-5½ and his replacement, Billy Turner, who was signed as a free agent in 2019, is 6-4¾.

Their only embrace of a towering tackle recently was 6-8 veteran free agent Jared Veldheer, who played two games for them in ’19 and was signed late last season but did not play any snaps because he tested positive for COVID-19.

Chances are this year that all the tackles with clear first-round grades – Oregon’s Penei Sewell, Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater, Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw, USC’s Alijah Vera-Tucker and Oklahoma State’s Teven Jenkins – will be gone when the Packers are scheduled to pick 29th in the first round.

All are in the 6-5 to 6-6 range.

Assuming the Packers don’t move up to take a tackle or don’t go for a hybrid guard/tackle, they can still take advantage of the strong tackle class later in the draft. They don’t have to draft a tackle, but with Bakhtiari expected to miss a third of the season recovering from a torn ACL and Nijman still an unknown, it wouldn’t hurt to build up the position.

They very well could start with guard Elgton Jenkins at left tackle, but then they’ll need to fill two interior spots (left guard and center). If they go with Turner at left tackle, they’ll need to find a right tackle. Given the Packers have found players who can start right away in middle rounds (Jenkins, Bakhtiari, Corey Linsley, Josh Sitton), it’s not hard to imagine them opening the season with a rookie at left or right tackle.

Because the tackle class is deep, the Packers can address other needs in the first two rounds and start thinking about a tackle or tackle/guard in the third. Among those who will be available as the rounds go on are towering behemoths such as Little, Forsythe, Brown, Doyle and Ball.

They are intriguing prospects because their length gives them a tremendous advantage against speedy rushers who want to get around the edge. If a tackle can reach them with his hands, he can drive them past the quarterback.

"The question is can they bend,” a scout said.

In the Packers’ system, the offensive linemen have to move laterally and they cannot allow a defensive lineman to get under their pads and drive them out of their track. Coach Matt LaFleur’s offense uses a lot of play-action and bootleg fakes and so it’s critical that the linemen are flexible to transition from run-blocking to pass-blocking on a given play.

What’s more, linemen who play with Rodgers must be able to sustain blocks and not just hold long enough for the quarterback to throw on rhythm. Rodgers doesn’t hold the ball as much as he used to, but he still likes to move within and outside the pocket waiting for someone to come open.

“If you believe that they have feet, can bend, the system won’t matter,” the scout whose team is seeking a tackle said. “Think the old West Coast horizontal-type of passing game.”

The Los Angeles Rams, for whom LaFleur was offensive coordinator in 2017, run a similar offense and have featured two 6-foot-7 tackles – Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein. Both have functioned well enough in the wide-zone run system and have been excellent pass protectors.


On the other hand, San Francisco, which under coach Kyle Shanahan runs a similar wide-zone, play-action attack, took a big chance selecting 6-8 tackle Mike McGlinchey with the ninth pick in the 2018 draft. McGlinchey was part of a terrific 49ers offensive line in 2019, but according to scouts had a bad year in ’20, confirming some of the concerns scouts had about him.

“I would say coming out, the one question about him was his bend,” one of the scouts said. ”If you thought it was good, you probably had him in the top 10. If you thought it was average to below average, he was a second-round type player.

"The problem with guys that are too tall is they usually struggle at guard if they fail at tackle. It’s tough for them to get leverage on shorter players inside.”

It is a big reason why players such as Forsythe and Little worked extremely hard in the offseason to show scouts they had the athleticism to play tackle and guard.

Forsythe, for instance, played 25 games at left tackle and three at right tackle. With 10-inch hands and an 83¼-inch wingspan, the Gators let him protect the backside of quarterback Kyle Trask.

But in the NFL, he’ll have to show more.

“I tried to show I can move and be athletic and look natural out here,” Forsythe said after his pro day workout. “They definitely like my length and how I use my arms. They all know I need to work on the run game; that’s been a focus for me.”


Same with Little, who has 10¼-inch hands and an 81¾-inch wingspan. He measured 6-7½, 313 pounds at his pro day.

“I’ve been training right and left (tackle) and thinking a little bit about guard,” he said at his pro day. “I will step in wherever needed. I feel like I’m the best left tackle in the draft, but I’ll do whatever a team needs me to do. The objective is to show you’re a complete player.”

It will be up to Gutekunst and his staff to determine whether one of this year’s rookie tackles can help the Packers. Big is good, especially in pass protection, but the Packers will be looking for the complete package.

[Yoop]

with only a week left JS Online is putting out 2 player and position articles a day now, and I feel obliged to bring them

Safety Trevon Moehrig would be another outside-the-box pick for Packers
Ryan Wood
Packers News

TCU safety Trevor Moehrig is upbeat about his talks with the Packers.
Latest in a Packers Prospects series looking at players Green Bay could select in the April 29-May 1 NFL draft.

GREEN BAY - It has been six years since the Green Bay Packers showed how creative, outside-the-box thinking can spring a major surprise in the NFL draft.

In 2015, the Packers’ need for a cornerback was no secret. They had just lost starter Tramon Williams in free agency. Casey Hayward and slot corner Micah Hyde were entering the final year of their contracts.

A personnel turnover in their secondary was on the horizon, but their safety position appeared to be stable. General manager Ted Thompson had used his first-round pick in 2014 to select Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. In Morgan Burnett, the Packers had a reliable veteran with three years left on his contract.


So when the Packers used their 30th overall pick to select a defensive back for their open cornerback spot, it shouldn’t have been a surprise. Except the Packers picked Arizona State safety Damarious Randall, who would prove to be miscast at the cornerback position he was drafted to play.

The Packers are again in an offseason when their need for a cornerback is no secret. Not after their secondary crumbled against Tom Brady in the NFC championship game. Even with Kevin King back on a one-year deal and Chandon Sullivan tendered a contract, the Packers could use as much coverage talent as they can get.

Could it be, though, that instead of drafting a cornerback, the Packers again stock their secondary with a position of strength, choosing a safety instead?

Texas Christian University safety Trevon Moehrig could be the outside-the-box first-round pick that completes the Packers' secondary, even if few expect him to be their selection with the 29th overall selection in this draft.

Moehrig, the draft’s top-ranked safety, would not be a long-term answer for coverage on the perimeter of the field opposite All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander. However, the Packers' most glaring need is in the slot, a position new defensive coordinator Joe Barry is expected to showcase in his scheme.

At 6-2, 202 pounds, Moehrig has the versatility to fill many roles in the secondary. He can be a traditional safety, but also line up in the slot. In sub packages, Moehrig can drop into the box as a linebacker.

In 360 coverage snaps, Moehrig allowed 20 catches on 41 targets for 208 yards, one touchdown and a 51.7 passer rating against, according to Pro Football Focus. He had six interceptions in his past two seasons, and his 20 defended passes in those years led all college safeties, according to PFF.

While a traditional safety might not seem like a need for a defense that has Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage Jr. on the back end, that could change if the Packers reconfigure their secondary. One option to fill their slot corner position could be Savage. If the Packers drop Savage into the slot, they could address one need while creating another. Suddenly, safety could become much thinner.

After his pro day last month, Moehrig said he had a pre-draft interview with the Packers.

“A couple good talks,” Moehrig said of his communication with the Packers. “A couple good conversations, just like the rest. Kind of just getting to know me, talking defense. I think all my interviews have been pretty solid, pretty good. Meetings with teams, I like everybody. So it’s been pretty good.”

A player like Moehrig gives the Packers plenty of options. Just remembers, surprises tend to happen in the draft.

Scouting measurables: 6-1, 202 pounds, 30 5/8-inch arms, 9 3/4-inch hands, 4.50 40, 17 bench-press reps.

Stats: 10 games, 47 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 8 defended passes.

Age next season: 22.

Pro Football Focus analysis: Moehrig has one of the best physical profiles in the class to go along with some of the best on-field production. He led all safeties in pass breakups in each of the past two seasons, with eight in 2020 and 12 in 2019. At 6-foot-2 and 202 pounds, Moehrig can play the catch point from behind a receiver with ease. It’s why over the course of his career he allowed only a 51% completion percentage. While he played mostly split-field coverages at TCU, a quarters alignment will oftentimes ask a safety to wear a number of different hats. Excelling in such a role bodes well for the variety of things Moehrig could be asked to do at the NFL level. It’s that versatile skill set that’s going to see him coveted highly come draft day.


Draftniks say: “Very talented height-weight-speed prospect with the range and ball skills to become an impact defender at the next level. Moehrig possesses the overall talent to play in a variety of coverages, including over the slot against big targets, but his talent might be best served as a high safety where his instincts and anticipation lead him to the football. He’s a talented ball tracker with soft hands and does a very good job of maintaining balance and positioning to make a play. While he can strike like a pro, he’s not always a knock-back tackler and his inconsistent angles to ball carriers present a bit of a concern as a last line of defense. His 2019 tape was a little better than 2020, but he has the talent and traits to become a good starter early in his career.” – Lance Zierlein, NFL Network

Quotable: “They’ve said they use their safeties in multiple roles. So if you can come here and be versatile, that will just help you even more. So they think I can fit in and plug in and play anywhere they need me, and that’s kind of the talks right now. It hasn’t really been any specific positions that they’ve said. They’ve just said all over the field, wherever they need me.” – Trevon Moehrig on which position NFL teams have indicated they see him playing

[YoHoChecko]

If we wind up taking Moehrig I'll get it; I'll talk myself into it. It will work out, and long term, we'll be in good shape.

But UGH god, just take CBs to play CB. There are plenty of them. We don't need to be too creative here. We have good safeties and need good CBs. So just do the thing that needs to be done and move on.

[APB]

If we wind up taking Moehrig I'll get it; I'll talk myself into it. It will work out, and long term, we'll be in good shape.

But UGH god, just take CBs to play CB. There are plenty of them. We don't need to be too creative here. We have good safeties and need good CBs. So just do the thing that needs to be done and move on.

My sentiments exactly. No need to get cute.