Rank the Roster 2022: #1

[Yoop]

( actually at this time it's 1.2 years of production)

I am torn between if you believe this or you are just being disingenuous because you like to argue.

He was voted #10 last year in our Rank the Packers thingy we did last summer. You don't get voted to #10 off 0.2 years of production in 2 years.

Despite the 'not starter' title (which is apparently the most important things now), he played about 50% of snaps in 2020 despite missing two games, he ended the season second in pressures and sacks, both behind ZaDarius.

Another metric that PFF uses to help illustrate efficiency as a pass rusher, is pass-rush productivity. This measures the rate at which a defender creates a pressure with a heavier weighting towards sacks. And for the entire season, Gary ranks 15th out of 121 eligible pass rushers.

While pressures and sacks get you noticed, Gary has also been very good this season against the run, ranking 19th out of the same 121 eligible edge-rushers in run-stop rate, which is another efficiency metric from Pro Football Focus.

IF that is worth 0.2 seasons of production, then you just are so dead set on winning a debate you simply choose to ignore logic and common sense. I didn't like the Gary pick. But I am humble enough to come to conclusion that that pick is looking like a home run at this point.

I don't care about winning this debate, what I'am not going to do is allow you to change my mind, I didn't like the pick choice at the time and that wont ever change, and PFF also said Gary was 3rd or 4th in pass rush success per down, and I pointed that out, that was last year, and he didn't do much prior, he didn't have to, we had both Smiths.
3 years ago we could have used Simmons, just maybe we wouldn't have been last in the league against the run, or gave up 2oo yrds rushing to SF, where was Gary then? your problem is you can't stand that I was right about this from the start

[BF004]

( actually at this time it's 1.2 years of production)

I am torn between if you believe this or you are just being disingenuous because you like to argue.

He was voted #10 last year in our Rank the Packers thingy we did last summer. You don't get voted to #10 off 0.2 years of production in 2 years.

Despite the 'not starter' title (which is apparently the most important things now), he played about 50% of snaps in 2020 despite missing two games, he ended the season second in pressures and sacks, both behind ZaDarius.

Another metric that PFF uses to help illustrate efficiency as a pass rusher, is pass-rush productivity. This measures the rate at which a defender creates a pressure with a heavier weighting towards sacks. And for the entire season, Gary ranks 15th out of 121 eligible pass rushers.

While pressures and sacks get you noticed, Gary has also been very good this season against the run, ranking 19th out of the same 121 eligible edge-rushers in run-stop rate, which is another efficiency metric from Pro Football Focus.

IF that is worth 0.2 seasons of production, then you just are so dead set on winning a debate you simply choose to ignore logic and common sense. I didn't like the Gary pick. But I am humble enough to come to conclusion that that pick is looking like a home run at this point.

I don't care about winning this debate, what I'am not going to do is allow you to change my mind, I didn't like the pick choice at the time and that wont ever change, and PFF also said Gary was 3rd or 4th in pass rush success per down, and I pointed that out, that was last year, and he didn't do much prior, he didn't have to, we had both Smiths.
3 years ago we could have used Simmons, just maybe we wouldn't have been last in the league against the run, or gave up 2oo yrds rushing to SF, where was Gary then? your problem is you can't stand that I was right about this from the start

The information I posted above was from 2020, his 2nd year, not last year. Last year he was a freak and a top 5 edge player in the league.

I didn't like the pick choice at the time and that wont ever change

That is the most truthful thing you have ever said.

Yeah, I didn't care for the pick either. But as I said before that draft, after we picked him, and every rookie, I'll wait to decide, keep an open mind, and make the most appropriate conclusion as new information becomes available.

It is just a fools errand, has gotten hundreds of GM's fired over the years, terrible strategy, to draft players for year 1 needs. I never expect rookie contribution, that is based on history, reality, stats, facts, figures, etc. I hope for the best, but my god, you get a guy of Gary's caliber, of his size, speed, age, development, and we get him for two more years for dirt cheap and two more years of franchise tag control. We have an ascending top 5 edge player, honestly not that close to his prime yet, under team lock and control for dozens of millions of dollars below market value, for about 5 years (including last year). And you still just want to die on this hill that we should have traded up for Devin Bush because we needed an ILB more that offseason.

Just simply can't respect your opinion. Just so foolish to lock in your rookie grades after the first year.

[Pckfn23]

We have talked about this before: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... t-success/

RB and LB are the easiest transitions for rookies. DL/DE and TE are the hardest transitions for rookies.

I agree about RB's, not ILBs you just used lber to describe a edge rusher, nice try

Here is the updated list of the top 140 rookie performances over the last 32 seasons:
37 28.46% RB
20 15.38% WR
19 14.62% QB
15 11.54% LB (NOT EDGE)
13 10.00% OT
8 6.15% iOL
6 4.62% EDGE
5 3.85% CB
4 3.08% S
3 2.31% DL
0 0.00% TE

That is the top 130 players, all with an AV of 10 or above.

[Pckfn23]

This is Simmons 3 years ago:

image.png (23.75 KiB) Viewed 252 times

This is Gary 3 years ago:

image.png (28.61 KiB) Viewed 252 times

Jeffery Simmons was not this ready to play demon he is being made out to be.

[texas]

I think we ought to pump the brakes a little bit on the Rashan Gary hype. Frankly I was expecting more from him last season (I was expecting a DPOY season from him, and while he was a stud, he was not in the DPOY conversation). His metrics haven't quite matched up to the eye test yet. A year ago we were comparing him to Aaron Donald based on some of his stats during limited game time, and he did not hit that level yet. Obviously excited to see him continue to improve. He was very raw and is definitely top 10, borderline top 5 on our team. But idk if I want to put him in the blue chip category quite yet, especially if we're leaving Devondre Campbell out of that category.

Who the hell compared Gary to Donald? Can I have some of whatever they were having?

Many people noted that those two were 1A and 1B on a variety of stats after the 2020 season. A lot of people thought he could be in the DPOY conversation.

[YoHoChecko]

I've been wondering how the rank the roster #1 thread got to its 4th page.

Now I see. We're debating the 2019 NDL draft here. Of course. How silly of me not to expect that.

[Pckfn23]

Here is adding in all the AV 9s:
45 21.84% RB
32 15.53% WR
28 13.59% QB
25 12.14% OT
24 11.65% LB
20 9.71% iOL
9 4.37% DL
8 3.88% EDGE
7 3.40% S
6 2.91% CB
2 0.97% SPT
0 0.00% TE
206

[Yoop]

We have talked about this before: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... t-success/

RB and LB are the easiest transitions for rookies. DL/DE and TE are the hardest transitions for rookies.

I agree about RB's, not ILBs you just used lber to describe a edge rusher, nice try

Here is the updated list of the top 140 rookie performances over the last 32 seasons:
37 28.46% RB
20 15.38% WR
19 14.62% QB
15 11.54% LB (NOT EDGE)
13 10.00% OT
8 6.15% iOL
6 4.62% EDGE
5 3.85% CB
4 3.08% S
3 2.31% DL
0 0.00% TE

That is the top 130 players, all with an AV of 10 or above.

here we go again with mis leading stats, your right lots of 2 dn ILB's start as rookies

in what world do you think 14% of rookie QB's start, and even if that is right how many of that 14% bust
or that just 6 edge rushers started the last 32 years, do you realize how idiotically wrong that is.

[Pckfn23]

I agree about RB's, not ILBs you just used lber to describe a edge rusher, nice try

Here is the updated list of the top 140 rookie performances over the last 32 seasons:
37 28.46% RB
20 15.38% WR
19 14.62% QB
15 11.54% LB (NOT EDGE)
13 10.00% OT
8 6.15% iOL
6 4.62% EDGE
5 3.85% CB
4 3.08% S
3 2.31% DL
0 0.00% TE

That is the top 130 players, all with an AV of 10 or above.

here we go again with mis leading stats, your right lots of 2 dn ILB's start as rookies

in what world do you think 14% of rookie QB's start, and even if that is right how many of that 14% bust
or that just 6 edge rushers started the last 32 years, do you realize how idiotically wrong that is.

Nope, not misleading. There are a lot of 3 down LBs in that group of 15. I can give you the names of all 15 if you like.

Also, nowhere was starts mentioned. It's based on AV which starting helps get a player a better AV. You are mistaken in what you think you are looking at.

This is AV directly from Pro Football Reference, not manipulation.

[Yoop]

Here is the updated list of the top 140 rookie performances over the last 32 seasons:
37 28.46% RB
20 15.38% WR
19 14.62% QB
15 11.54% LB (NOT EDGE)
13 10.00% OT
8 6.15% iOL
6 4.62% EDGE
5 3.85% CB
4 3.08% S
3 2.31% DL
0 0.00% TE

That is the top 130 players, all with an AV of 10 or above.

here we go again with mis leading stats, your right lots of 2 dn ILB's start as rookies

in what world do you think 14% of rookie QB's start, and even if that is right how many of that 14% bust
or that just 6 edge rushers started the last 32 years, do you realize how idiotically wrong that is.

Nope, not misleading. There are a lot of 3 down LBs in that group of 15. I can give you the names of all 15 if you like.

Also, nowhere was starts mentioned. It's based on AV which starting helps get a player a better AV. You are mistaken in what you think you are looking at.

This is AV directly from Pro Football Reference, not manipulation.

I don't buy it, every year lately we see rookies start and do well at CB, WR, RB, OL and Edge, times have changed, more college teams do pro ball schemes, and I still say most of the off ball lbers that start will struggle in pass coverage unless they did a lot of coverage in college, and most don't, that makes them a 2 dn lber as a rookie, I mentioned STARTS, again where back to high draft picks riding pine, not me, and Simmons played in only nine games and still had much better production then Gary, and he actually started games, he ended up the best DT from that draft class.

[Pckfn23]

You don't have to buy it, but it isn't made up or manipulated. If you don't buy it bring other data to support your position.

What you are explaining is completely anecdotal and also way off topic. Of course some guys do well at all positions, that isn't the conversation... It's about which positions are easier to transition to as a rookie.

Frankly, it doesn't matter what you think, it's what is real and there are plenty of those LBs that are 3 down guys...

Mention starts all you want, but it doesn't change that EDGE and DL are some of hardest transitions from college compared to other positions.

[Pckfn23]

Here's that list of 2 down only LBs:
C.J. Mosley
Devin Bush Jr.
Jerod Mayo
Patrick Queen
Darius Leonard
Brian Cushing
Preston Brown
Lofa Tatupu
Kiko Alonso
Zach Thomas
Brian Urlacher
Jonathan Vilma
Bobby Wagner
Nick Barnett
Tremaine Edmunds
Patrick Willis
Kendrell Bell
Roquan Smith
Jeremy Chinn
Leighton Vander Esch
Lavonte David
Chad Greenway

[Yoop]

And you still just want to die on this hill that we should have traded up for Devin Bush because we needed an ILB more that offseason.

Just simply can't respect your opinion. Just so foolish to lock in your rookie grades after the first year.

who did that? your saying what I wasn't even thinking, so your twisting what I have been saying so that you could say you don't respect my opinion, what does not liking the pick have to do with forming a grade? which basically wasn't much, he sat behind two starters, he was always going to sit behind 2 starters which is why I didn't like the pick.