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Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 08:44
by williewasgreat
CWIMM wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 05:49
texas wrote: ↑14 Aug 2023 17:18
We didn't have to wait for Crosby. He came out in preseason and kicked the longest FG in the history of Heinz Field, and then in his first NFL game he kicked a game winner under pressure, in addition to a 53 yarder in that game. He was good from the start.
Carlson is not good from the start.
Crosby wasn't good from the start as he finished 24th out of 31 qualifying kickers during his rookie season in 2007.
texas wrote: ↑14 Aug 2023 17:22
The thing about Crosby's "low" FG percentages throughout his career is that we generally gave him tougher kicks, like I remember that one really bad season he had, most of his misses were from 50+ and barely missed. Plus the random 5 missed FG games he would have brought down the numbers in general.
Crosby ranks only 53rd out of 61 kickers with at least 100 attempts in field goal percentage since 2007. Over that period he has the 31st highest average distance of attempts. Therefore he wasn't put in more difficult situations than most other kickers.
texas wrote: ↑15 Aug 2023 17:00
Oh ok, well in that case it still can be said that being patient with Crosby (who at that point had several years of being clutch under his belt) is a different case entirely than being patient with a guy who has shown nothing yet.
And I guess now I am on board with at least letting Carlson finish out the preseason to see if he can get back on track. Or like I said if we suck this year, might as well ride him out and see.
But none of the anti-Crosby arguments are good. The guy is and was a solid kicker that you can rely on, and that's exactly what you want if you are trying to win games.
Actually all the numbers support the notion that Crosby was a below average kicker for most of his career.
Don't forget that Crosby was kicking in the Green Bay climate in November-January. This would negatively impact the stats of most any kicker.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 09:08
by Labrev
We probably aren't a SB team this year, though stranger things have happened. But to win a SB, you need to win playoff games, and experience playing in the playoffs is a significant factor in playoff success. So I want us to play for and get a playoff berth this year, regardless.
Carlson's development isn't worth it if it causes us to lose games and thus miss the playoffs. That sets back the timeline.
I don't care that Carlson's brother was cut from MIN and then went onto become a top PK in the league for OAK. It might have been the change of scenery that did the trick for him, and that staying in the place where he screwed up a lot would have prevented it. Point is, we don't know if he actually would have gotten it together in MIN, such that we can say that they were wrong to give up on him early.
Developmental players are for the practice squad. I am all for giving Carlson until the end of preseason/TC. In the meantime, bring in Crosby, Gould, or a guy like that to attempt the kicks that will count. No one is going to swipe him off the PS anyway if he doesn't get consistent.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 09:16
by Pckfn23
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 07:55
if solid is so easy to find why have our GM's kept Crosby around? simple, consistently being a 80% plus kicker for all these years,
80% is BAD. Only 1 kicker with 100 attempts since 2007 is below that:
https://stathead.com/tiny/6xAdN
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 09:40
by Captain_Ben
Labrev wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 09:08
We probably aren't a SB team this year, though stranger things have happened. But to win a SB, you need to win playoff games, and experience playing in the playoffs is a significant factor in playoff success. So I want us to play for and get a playoff berth this year, regardless.
Carlson's development isn't worth it if it causes us to lose games and thus miss the playoffs. That sets back the timeline.
I don't care that Carlson's brother was cut from MIN and then went onto become a top PK in the league for OAK. It might have been the change of scenery that did the trick for him, and that staying in the place where he screwed up a lot would have prevented it. Point is, we don't know if he actually would have gotten it together in MIN, such that we can say that they were wrong to give up on him early.
Developmental players are for the practice squad. I am all for giving Carlson until the end of preseason/TC. In the meantime, bring in Crosby, Gould, or a guy like that to attempt the kicks that will count. No one is going to swipe him off the PS anyway if he doesn't get consistent.
I agree with this. I want Love to get accustomed to winning ASAP. In this game of inches, there are bound to be more close games than blowouts. The worst would be when the team has done everything to scrap together a W and it ends of being all for nothing because "we have to give this kicker time to develop."
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 09:41
by Pckfn23
Captain_Ben wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 09:40
Labrev wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 09:08
We probably aren't a SB team this year, though stranger things have happened. But to win a SB, you need to win playoff games, and experience playing in the playoffs is a significant factor in playoff success. So I want us to play for and get a playoff berth this year, regardless.
Carlson's development isn't worth it if it causes us to lose games and thus miss the playoffs. That sets back the timeline.
I don't care that Carlson's brother was cut from MIN and then went onto become a top PK in the league for OAK. It might have been the change of scenery that did the trick for him, and that staying in the place where he screwed up a lot would have prevented it. Point is, we don't know if he actually would have gotten it together in MIN, such that we can say that they were wrong to give up on him early.
Developmental players are for the practice squad. I am all for giving Carlson until the end of preseason/TC. In the meantime, bring in Crosby, Gould, or a guy like that to attempt the kicks that will count. No one is going to swipe him off the PS anyway if he doesn't get consistent.
I agree with this. I want Love to get accustomed to winning ASAP. In this game of inches, there are bound to be more close games than blowouts. The worst would be when the team has done everything to scrap together a W and it ends of being all for nothing because "we have to give this kicker time to develop."
Along those same lines, accountability issues would start to appear if consistently we are doing good things and consistently the kicker is failing. Quick way to lose a team.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 10:02
by Yoop
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 09:16
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 07:55
if solid is so easy to find why have our GM's kept Crosby around? simple, consistently being a 80% plus kicker for all these years,
80% is BAD. Only 1 kicker with 100 attempts since 2007 is below that:
https://stathead.com/tiny/6xAdN
It was consistent enough that our GM's who know more then any of us decided against changing to another kicker, and it was the right thing to do.
and 100's are obviously a lot worse then 80%, every season a half doz teams switch out kickers, just go look at the success ratio of doing that, I havn't, but guess it's less then 50% that the new guy was the answer to more consistency
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 10:15
by Pckfn23
It doesn't change the fact that 80% on FGs is Awful.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 10:33
by Yoop
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 10:15
It doesn't change the fact that 80% on FGs is Awful.
thing is one bad year can screw up the over all career average
and the difference between 80% and 85% amounts to one or two kicks, just keep building your mole hill
, Crosby has been clutch far far more then a liability.
as others have said, people get all worked up about kickers, when in actuality it's over slumps when a kicker struggles, and what separates Crosby from the rest is his ability to recover and fix the yipes, thats what you and APB and the others refuse to acknowledge and his stat ratings wont show.
if Carlson struggles maybe we'll bring in another kicker, but I doubt it, and Guty spent a 6th rounder on him so he's not going to expose him to waivers, that wouldn't make any sense at all, other then these tech issues he is the perfect replacement for Crosby, so Guty will do whatever is necessary to protect that investment
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 10:48
by Pckfn23
80% for a field goal percentage is a horrible bar to set. In this century only 7 kickers out of 76 with 100+ attempts have a percentage under 80%.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Pnmw7
To better understand how bad, let's compare to passer rating. That would be about equivalent to a QB posting a 77.5 passer rating over that same time period and saying that is OK.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Oo9ST
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 10:56
by Yoop
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 10:48
80% for a field goal percentage is a horrible bar to set. In this century only 7 kickers out of 76 with 100+ attempts have a percentage under 80%.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Pnmw7
To better understand how bad, let's compare to passer rating. That would be about equivalent to a QB posting a 77.5 passer rating over that same time period and saying that is OK.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Oo9ST
take 21 and 2012 out and crosby's average is respectable, your using his 2 worst seasons to paint him, same why you do with every player you snub.
this is why most people don't base or form there opinions on STATS they only tell half the story.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 11:00
by Pckfn23
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 10:56
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 10:48
80% for a field goal percentage is a horrible bar to set. In this century only 7 kickers out of 76 with 100+ attempts have a percentage under 80%.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Pnmw7
To better understand how bad, let's compare to passer rating. That would be about equivalent to a QB posting a 77.5 passer rating over that same time period and saying that is OK.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Oo9ST
take 21 and 2012 out and crosby's average is respectable, your using his 2 worst seasons to paint him, same why you do with every player you snub.
this is why most people don't base or form there opinions on STATS they only tell half the story.
I am actually not talking about Crosby nor am I using any particular seasons of his, let alone his worst 2. I didn't even mention Crosby. You set an 80% FG% benchmark, which I am showing is horrible for a FG kicker.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 11:21
by Yoop
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 11:00
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 10:56
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 10:48
80% for a field goal percentage is a horrible bar to set. In this century only 7 kickers out of 76 with 100+ attempts have a percentage under 80%.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Pnmw7
To better understand how bad, let's compare to passer rating. That would be about equivalent to a QB posting a 77.5 passer rating over that same time period and saying that is OK.
https://stathead.com/tiny/Oo9ST
take 21 and 2012 out and crosby's average is respectable, your using his 2 worst seasons to paint him, same why you do with every player you snub.
this is why most people don't base or form there opinions on STATS they only tell half the story.
I am actually not talking about Crosby nor am I using any particular seasons of his, let alone his worst 2. I didn't even mention Crosby. You set an 80% FG% benchmark, which I am showing is horrible for a FG kicker.
[/quote
Yoops last response
quit acting stupid, of course your discounting what Crosby's actual worth to this team has meant, no one is saying and certainly not me that we should have kept Crosby, you and others here though have wanted to get rid of him for the last 5 years, try and use all 52 cards in the deck
again his average has been better then 80% when you take away those two seasons, so obviously that was my original point, and for you to sit here and diddle around as though it wasn't is soooooo YOU, the reason you and I will never see eye to eye is you acting disingenuous with every conversation, as others have said you are a very frustrating person to converse with.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 11:25
by Pckfn23
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 11:21
quit acting stupid, of course your discounting what Crosby's actual worth to this team has meant, no one is saying and certainly not me that we should have kept Crosby, you and others here though have wanted to get rid of him for the last 5 years, try and use all 52 cards in the deck
again his average has been better then 80% when you take away those two seasons, so obviously that was my original point, and for you to sit here and diddle around as though it wasn't is soooooo YOU, the reason you and I will never see eye to eye is you acting disingenuous with every conversation, as others have said you are a very frustrating person to converse with.
Mason Crosby had a career 81.4% FG% even without taking away his 2 worst seasons.
I am not acting disingenuous or stupid at all. You are reading into what I wrote. You set a benchmark of 80%, I am pointing out that is a horrible benchmark to set as it's a pretty bad mark for any kicker.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 11:32
by Pckfn23
Let's put it another way. Since 2000 there have been 726 kickers who have attempted 15 FGs in a season, only 31% of them made below 80% of their FGs. Even at a per season rate, kicking at or below 80% is bad.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 11:41
by Pckfn23
Crosby and Janikowski leading since 2000 with most seasons below 80% (6). Just interesting. No motive. No underlying point.
https://stathead.com/tiny/UcN73
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 11:51
by Yoop
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 11:32
Let's put it another way. Since 2000 there have been 726 kickers who have attempted 15 FGs in a season, only 31% of them made below 80% of their FGs. Even at a per season rate, kicking at or below 80% is bad.
I believe I said he is a 80% PLUS kicker, never needed a stat or even looked for one, and I don't need any stats to know Crosby has been worth hanging onto, you and others ranting to get rid of him would complain if hung with bran new hemp for christ sakes, we could go a decade or more and never improve on Crosby.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 12:45
by Crazylegs Starks
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 11:51
I believe I said he is a 80% PLUS kicker, never needed a stat or even looked for one, and I don't need any stats to know Crosby has been worth hanging onto, you and others ranting to get rid of him would complain if hung with bran new hemp for christ sakes, we could go a decade or more and never improve on Crosby.
Yoop, you really should look at the stats, he was an 80%+ kicker on only 9 out of 16 his seasons. That's not very good! Go compare him to Robbie Gould in Chicago; it's not even close.
Crosby's career stats:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... osMa20.htm
Robbie Gould:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... drob01.htm
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 12:54
by Pckfn23
Give Carlson 2 more weeks. It might very well be over already, however... Ryan Succop is out there.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 13:17
by Labrev
I would be interested in kicking the tires on Randy Bullock. 85% last year, has a pretty big leg, at 33 is not an oldie.
Re: Carlson
Posted: 16 Aug 2023 13:41
by Yoop
Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 12:45
Yoop wrote: ↑16 Aug 2023 11:51
I believe I said he is a 80% PLUS kicker, never needed a stat or even looked for one, and I don't need any stats to know Crosby has been worth hanging onto, you and others ranting to get rid of him would complain if hung with bran new hemp for christ sakes, we could go a decade or more and never improve on Crosby.
Yoop, you really should look at the stats, he was an 80%+ kicker on only 9 out of 16 his seasons. That's not very good! Go compare him to Robbie Gould in Chicago; it's not even close.
Crosby's career stats:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... osMa20.htm
Robbie Gould:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... drob01.htm
his two years of near only 70% is what drags his % down, a GM would be a idiot to even contemplate switching a kicker that has been as consistent as Crosby has been most seasons.
just look at all the kickers that never even got close to that, every year a half doz GM's try, and according the the numbers it seems 2/3rds of those GM dump those brought in and try again, then again, and often that goes on for years.
the grass is always greener.
Yoho said it best, Kicker is just not a important enough position that going from 81% efficient to 83% or so is a high priority or reason to swap them out, it just aint, and Crosby has been clutch when he's had to be.