Bakhtiari extension - 4yr $105.5M

[go pak go]

A monumental record-setting deal, at a time when the cap is shrinking and there are a lot of other UFA worth keeping in the next few years. I don't think this was a good move.

Yeah I’m not ready to say it was a BAD move, but I’m far more skeptical than most seem to be. And what you mentioned about the cap is why I asked if people thought he would get a record deal THIS YEAR on the open market. I know he would get paid, but is anyone trying to set records this year??

Idk...idk.

I mean there were a lot of rather large deals made before the season when teams knew the cap would shrink. The Chiefs did it. The Saints did it. The Vikings did it.

So I am not too shocked there. If this ultimately comes down to going Bak over Jones, the one thing I can understand is Bak has been consistent and Bak has been available. When you pay someone, you don't want them to underperform and you don't want them on the sideline.

In theory, there are generally a number of RBs in the draft that can eventually take over a Jones role. If we don't sign Jones, a play making offensive weapon will be critical in this upcoming draft.

[Yoop]

A monumental record-setting deal, at a time when the cap is shrinking and there are a lot of other UFA worth keeping in the next few years. I don't think this was a good move.

Yeah I’m not ready to say it was a BAD move, but I’m far more skeptical than most seem to be. And what you mentioned about the cap is why I asked if people thought he would get a record deal THIS YEAR on the open market. I know he would get paid, but is anyone trying to set records this year??

Idk...idk.

I mean there were a lot of rather large deals made before the season when teams knew the cap would shrink. The Chiefs did it. The Saints did it. The Vikings did it.

So I am not too shocked there. If this ultimately comes down to going Bak over Jones, the one thing I can understand is Bak has been consistent and Bak has been available. When you pay someone, you don't want them to underperform and you don't want them on the sideline.

In theory, there are generally a number of RBs in the draft that can eventually take over a Jones role. If we don't sign Jones, a play making offensive weapon will be critical in this upcoming draft.

good point, it's easier to find a replacement for Jones then it is to find a ready to run block LT in the draft, and Bak is a very good run blocking LT, as well as possibly the best pass blocker.

I disagree in part though, losing Jones will require 2 high draft picks for offensive impact talent, we've been playing short handed of offensive impact players for a 7th of your life time

[go pak go]

Yeah I’m not ready to say it was a BAD move, but I’m far more skeptical than most seem to be. And what you mentioned about the cap is why I asked if people thought he would get a record deal THIS YEAR on the open market. I know he would get paid, but is anyone trying to set records this year??

Idk...idk.

I mean there were a lot of rather large deals made before the season when teams knew the cap would shrink. The Chiefs did it. The Saints did it. The Vikings did it.

So I am not too shocked there. If this ultimately comes down to going Bak over Jones, the one thing I can understand is Bak has been consistent and Bak has been available. When you pay someone, you don't want them to underperform and you don't want them on the sideline.

In theory, there are generally a number of RBs in the draft that can eventually take over a Jones role. If we don't sign Jones, a play making offensive weapon will be critical in this upcoming draft.

I disagree in part though, losing Jones will require 2 high draft picks for offensive impact talent, we've been playing short handed of offensive impact players for a 7th of your life time

4 years? 1999 - 2000 and 2005 - 2006.
Sounds about right.

And no. I do not want to lose Aaron Jones. I think he is that good and I think he is that good of a person to have in this locker room. I reeeeaaaaalllllyyyyyyyy don't want to get rid of Jones.

The other two I have accepted are absolutely not going to happen. Or likely to happen.

[Yoop]

I mean there were a lot of rather large deals made before the season when teams knew the cap would shrink. The Chiefs did it. The Saints did it. The Vikings did it.

So I am not too shocked there. If this ultimately comes down to going Bak over Jones, the one thing I can understand is Bak has been consistent and Bak has been available. When you pay someone, you don't want them to underperform and you don't want them on the sideline.

In theory, there are generally a number of RBs in the draft that can eventually take over a Jones role. If we don't sign Jones, a play making offensive weapon will be critical in this upcoming draft.

I disagree in part though, losing Jones will require 2 high draft picks for offensive impact talent, we've been playing short handed of offensive impact players for a 7th of your life time

4 years? 1999 - 2000 and 2005 - 2006.
Sounds about right.

And no. I do not want to lose Aaron Jones. I think he is that good and I think he is that good of a person to have in this locker room. I reeeeaaaaalllllyyyyyyyy don't want to get rid of Jones.

The other two I have accepted are absolutely not going to happen. Or likely to happen.

haaaa, I know you don't want to lose Jones, my point was we have been short a impact player even with Jones, so losing Jones imo means we need to not only replace Jones, but also aquire another formidable offensive weapon, or some player already on the roster needs to become that player, who? right now we still lack sppeed at offensive impact positions, MVS is our only guy with elite speed, and he should still be considered a inconsistent player even though he did have a great game sunday.

[BSA]

I know you don't want to lose Jones

In some ways, I felt the comments from Gute post- Bak deal were a shot across the bow of Jones and his agent. Making a public comment that you want to keep as much cash/flexibility as possible because other vets might shake loose - is telling Jones:

"Take the offered deal now, or take the chance we'll find somebody we like better in March."

[BF004]

There is a small chance we could lose Jones in FA, but I don't think he'll get anything big.

These are the only teams that could realistically afford Jones.

image.png (71.89 KiB) Viewed 458 times

Jets just made the Bell mistake, have a hard time seeing them doing it. Jaguars could actually make some sense, giving their new QB a solid backfield option, although James Robinson probably their best offensive player right now. Patriots are too smart to give an RB big money.

Colts just drafted Taylor, WFT just drafted Gipson who is playing well, Bengals signed Mixon, Cowboys got Zeke.


So let him get into FA, might almost just come down to outpaying Jacksonville or Miami, if they are even interested. They both need a lot of help elsewhere as well. Keeping in mind guys like Gurley, Kenyon Drake, James Conner, Jamal Williams, Mike Davis, Leonard Fournette all going to be available too and for likely much much cheaper.


I can completely get behind the idea of putting out our fairish, not-insulting offer, and sitting on it, maybe lower it down a hair once FA starts and wait it out. But I like a lot of that lot in FA and a lot of them would be really good fits here.

[Yoop]

I know you don't want to lose Jones

In some ways, I felt the comments from Gute post- Bak deal were a shot across the bow of Jones and his agent. Making a public comment that you want to keep as much cash/flexibility as possible because other vets might shake loose - is telling Jones:

"Take the offered deal now, or take the chance we'll find somebody we like for less in March."

I had to adjust your comment BSA, debatable that we'd find someone better then Jones, imo a healthy Jones is better then anyone that will be available, however your point is taken, there are only so many dollars available, one thing for sure, I'd dump P Smith and use his money towards signing Jones, same with Lowry and M. Adams, or some other dead beats.
when I look at this offense we lack speed, so obvious, I'd like to get another quality receiver with 4.4 speed, keeping Jones is our only insurance in case we don't, my point is we either help Rodgers with another burner, or we keep Jones who has been a great open field threat as a receiver.

didn't know that we had even made a offer yet to Jones.

[BF004]

There is a fair amount of savings to release Preston, although then we also need to replace that option via fa or draft, we would have no depth whatsoever.

Only $3.3 million savings to release Dean. I’m not sure that makes us better.

Montravious will be a free agent and is making pennies already and I wouldn’t call him a dead beat.

[YoHoChecko]

There is a fair amount of savings to release Preston, although then we also need to replace that option via fa or draft, we would have no depth whatsoever.

YOU DON'T FEEL THE GARVIN?!?

[BSA]

didn't know that we had even made a offer yet to Jones.

Jones said earlier this year that his agent and the Packers FO were talking about a new deal, but I have no idea how far those talks progressed


"Joining NFL Network's Good Morning Football on Tuesday, Jones said his agent continues to have discussions with the Packers about a contract extension. "Yes, they definitely are," Jones said when asked if sides are working on a deal. "I'm just sitting back, waiting until it's done, I guess. My agent and them are taking care of it. I'm gonna continue to play football and when it's time to sign the deal, it'll be time. But I'm just going to focus on football." The discussions between Jones' reps and the Packers have extended back to the spring, with nothing yet inked. It's possible a deal could get done before the start of the season."

[BSA]

debatable that we'd find someone better then Jones, imo a healthy Jones is better then anyone that will be available,

I think there are 2 camps on the Jones extension.
Camp 1 says: You don't pay RB's, they are a dime a dozen and easily replaced
Camp 2 says: Aaron Jones is better than most replacement RBs and worth paying for

Camp 1 says: You can find that production elsewhere
Camp 2 says: Sure, but then you have to spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd to achieve that level

There's good points on either side of the ledger and it will be interesting to see how it all works out. IF Jones would take 2 years/$20 M with most or all guaranteed, then he gets another bite of the apple while still young and the Packers hedge their bets by not making a long term massive deal to an RB.

Won't happen, but that shorter, more guaranteed cash is the middle ground. The Packers are not going to give him a massive 5 year deal like the other top RBs got. So he can take his show on the road and play for one of the teams that BF004 listed above- or he can take the Packers cash, have a chance at a Super Bowl and have enough money for a lifetime scholarship even if he never earns another deal beyond the extension. If he lets money be The Decider, he's gone. I have hope that he and GB find a way... and given his background of constantly moving around with military parents, I'd hope that he values stability in his career

[YoHoChecko]

Honestly. The cap is going down for ONE year.

They gave him a deal with massive flexibility in that one year--his 2021 cap number will likely wind up being lower than his 2020 cap number if they need it to be (by the time 21 comes around, not by the time details are fully announced).

I know some people really don't want to believe this, but the tv money in 22 and 23 is going to be huge. You don't have to take my word for it anymore; it's very obvious that multiple teams, including the Packers, are expecting and planning for that.

Now, with the money owed to Z, Bakh, Clark, and Rodgers in those years, the cap situation will still require some monitoring and finagling; it's not like it's just gonna solve everything. But anyone thinking this is a "bad" move because the cap is shrinking doesn't have a full understanding of the way this contract is going to be structured and how the cap is going to be changing over the next few years.

[go pak go]

There is a fair amount of savings to release Preston, although then we also need to replace that option via fa or draft, we would have no depth whatsoever.

YOU DON'T FEEL THE GARVIN?!?

Can we at least have Ramsey and Garvin play over Oren Burks...is that too much of an ask?

Holy sh*t did he play bad in his 5 snaps on Sunday.

[BF004]

debatable that we'd find someone better then Jones, imo a healthy Jones is better then anyone that will be available,

I think there are 2 camps on the Jones extension.
Camp 1 says: You don't pay RB's, they are a dime a dozen and easily replaced
Camp 2 says: Aaron Jones is better than most replacement RBs and worth paying for

Camp 1 says: You can find that production elsewhere
Camp 2 says: Sure, but then you have to spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd to achieve that level

There's good points on either side of the ledger and it will be interesting to see how it all works out. IF Jones would take 2 years/$20 M with most or all guaranteed, then he gets another bite of the apple while still young and the Packers hedge their bets by not making a long term massive deal to an RB.

Won't happen, but that shorter, more guaranteed cash is the middle ground. The Packers are not going to give him a massive 5 year deal like the other top RBs got. So he can take his show on the road and play for one of the teams that BF004 listed above- or he can take the Packers cash, have a chance at a Super Bowl and have enough money for a lifetime scholarship even if he never earns another deal beyond the extension. If he lets money be The Decider, he's gone. I have hope that he and GB find a way... and given his background of constantly moving around with military parents, I'd hope that he values stability in his career

I am in the camp of you don't pay RB's. But Jones isn't just an RB. His receiving skills, even just the realistic threat of, are what can set him apart. And I mean really, $12 million for Jones a year, we aren't going to sign a WR at that price who would be remotely as effective overall.

[BF004]

There is a fair amount of savings to release Preston, although then we also need to replace that option via fa or draft, we would have no depth whatsoever.

YOU DON'T FEEL THE GARVIN?!?

Can we at least have Ramsey and Garvin play over Oren Burks...is that too much of an ask?

Holy sh*t did he play bad in his 5 snaps on Sunday.

I think that tells you all you need to know about Garvin and Ramsey.

[Pckfn23]

Camp 2 says: Sure, but then you have to spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd to achieve that level

Not always though. Look at James Robinson, just off the top of my head. I am going to go look at rookie RBs and draft position and see how often 4-FA rocks it in year 1.

[Crazylegs Starks]

There is a fair amount of savings to release Preston, although then we also need to replace that option via fa or draft, we would have no depth whatsoever.

YOU DON'T FEEL THE GARVIN?!?

This post made me laugh, but seriously, I like what I see so far in Garvin.

[Yoop]

debatable that we'd find someone better then Jones, imo a healthy Jones is better then anyone that will be available,

I think there are 2 camps on the Jones extension.
Camp 1 says: You don't pay RB's, they are a dime a dozen and easily replaced
Camp 2 says: Aaron Jones is better than most replacement RBs and worth paying for

Camp 1 says: You can find that production elsewhere
Camp 2 says: Sure, but then you have to spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd to achieve that level

There's good points on either side of the ledger and it will be interesting to see how it all works out. IF Jones would take 2 years/$20 M with most or all guaranteed, then he gets another bite of the apple while still young and the Packers hedge their bets by not making a long term massive deal to an RB.

Won't happen, but that shorter, more guaranteed cash is the middle ground. The Packers are not going to give him a massive 5 year deal like the other top RBs got. So he can take his show on the road and play for one of the teams that BF004 listed above- or he can take the Packers cash, have a chance at a Super Bowl and have enough money for a lifetime scholarship even if he never earns another deal beyond the extension. If he lets money be The Decider, he's gone. I have hope that he and GB find a way... and given his background of constantly moving around with military parents, I'd hope that he values stability in his career

I am in the camp of you don't pay RB's. But Jones isn't just an RB. His receiving skills, even just the realistic threat of, are what can set him apart. And I mean really, $12 million for Jones a year, we aren't going to sign a WR at that price who would be remotely as effective overall.

zactly, Jones proven ability has to be accounted for with every play he is on the field, he was a pedestrian 100 yard player Sunday, however he was doubled and got special attention on just about every play, and still produced that 100 yrds, and he has the ability to take over any game if not given extra attention from the defense

I agree, it's rare for me to want to give a RB more then a rookie contract, resigning them has rarely worked well in most cases, however some do pan out well for another 3 to 4 years, I can't say that Jones is in the later group, however if the contract is set up with only 2 years quarantee at 10 to 12 a year I'd do it, his ability as a receiver makes him more then just a RB.

while Jones was out, so was Ervin, and so was the pre snap motion which seemed like the catalist that produced our best offensive production this year.

It would be wise to invest in more of these type players

[BSA]

Not always though. Look at James Robinson, just off the top of my head. I am going to go look at rookie RBs and draft position and see how often 4-FA rocks it in year 1.

You're welcome to do the legwork, but the end result is that the number of 4th-7th UDFA RBs who produce at Aaron Jones level is miniscule. You can find a flash in the pan, but the vast majority are Jamaal Williams/James Starks types, solid RBs but not special and certainly not with the pass catching prowess displayed by Jones. Its a bad bet thinking you can just find another one. Here's 20 years of RB drafting in Titletown and the list of all RBs taken, by year and round
https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/rb

AJ Dillon
Dexter Williams
Jamaal Williams
Aaron Jones
Devante Mays
Eddie Lacy
Johnathan Franklin
Alex Green
James Starks
Brandon Jackson
DeShaun Wynn
Najeh Davenport
Rondell Mealy

None of them equals Aaron Jones. Lacy was awesome, but flamed out. Franklin was fun, but got injured. Starks had his moments
That's pretty much the RB story and maybe that's why SF just has a stable of RBs and keeps adding more (they did overpay Jerrick McKinnon)
.

[Pckfn23]

4-FA - 10 1000 yard rushers as a rookie since 1990
1-3 - 35 1000 yard rushers as a rookie since 1990

4-FA - 16 750 yard rushers as a rookie since 1990
1-3 - 62 750 yard rushers as a rookie since 1990

I wouldn't say that is minuscule at all. Obviously a first to third rounder is going to have a better shot at being a productive runner in year 1. Some of that has to do with talent, some with opportunity. Productive rookie rushers can definitely be had after round 3.