Packers Huddle

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

17 Dec 2020 16:25

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

17 Dec 2020 13:05

It is also worth noting that Jones doesn't have anything close to the resume of Cook, McCaffery, or Kamara, so his contract also should not be that echelon, when people are thinking about how much it may cost to keep him.

That’s gonna be the benchmark though. The next man up always gets paid more.

I would expect it to be less than Cook, not by much, but would be disappointed if we do more.

Just no reason to, he would not get that on the open market this offseason.

I’d actually be fine waiting till like a week or two into FA, offering a contract that makes sense for us and not really budging.

NCF wrote: ↑

17 Dec 2020 16:58

Jones doesn’t have the resume to support a top of the market deal.

opinions vary- and both his past agent and his current one will most certainly try to make that case...which is why there's no deal
Gute fired a shot across the bow publicly stating that they want to preserve cash for any FAs that might shake loose. No reason to make that statement unless you're speaking to agents/players through the media. Basically:

" We made a very good offer. If you think you can do better elsewhere - good luck."

BSA wrote: ↑

17 Dec 2020 17:32

NCF wrote: ↑

17 Dec 2020 16:58

Jones doesn’t have the resume to support a top of the market deal.

opinions vary- and both his past agent and his current one will most certainly try to make that case...which is why there's no deal
Gute fired a shot across the bow publicly stating that they want to preserve cash for any FAs that might shake loose. No reason to make that statement unless you're speaking to agents/players through the media. Basically:

" We made a very good offer. If you think you can do better elsewhere - good luck."

Im wondering if he got the Jordy Nelson treatment. Where the Packers offered a contract so disrespectful he couldnt accept it. Maybe thats why he fired his agent.

I really like Aaron Jones but you just don't shell out money for RBs in today's NFL

Yeah, I love me some Aaron Jones but it's tough to ignore the predominant trend with RBs and the second contract failures. Zeke Elliott is the latest among that trend line.

And it's not that I think Jones will fall off a talent cliff or anything, it's just a matter of paying yet another exorbitant contract to a position that hamstrings other areas of roster building. In Zeke Elliott's case, they were forced to go with near zero quality depth on their O-line and when injuries hit it rendered Elliott largely ineffective.

There are a lot of negative variables that must be considered when extending and paying top market value to a largely plug-and-play position and as much as I would hate to see Jones walk, I just don't think the current roster and cap composition supports paying him the money I wholly think he deserves.

In my opinion, there are 5 Packers players that deserve top of the line NFL contracts.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. David Bahktiari
3. Davante Adams
4. Kenny Clark (though this could change if 21 is similar to his 20)
5. Jaire Alexander

There other players who deserve high level NFL contracts.

1. Zadarius Smith
2. Corey Linsley
3. Aaron Jones

I honestly think that is it.

I imagine the Packer front office is looking toward Jaire Alexander's looming large 2nd contract when they make their decision on Jones. Yes, I'm over-simplifying things but the two contracts are definitely related and impactful toward one another.

Can't say I wouldn't choose Alexander over Jones myself. A shutdown CB is definitely more valuable than a top echelon RB, at least in my view. Especially so in an offense lead by Aaron Rodgers and designed by Matt Lefleur. A quality replacement CB is also harder to find.

About the only way I see the Packers resigning Jones is if they plan to move on from Aaron Rodgers (or expect his retirement, etc) within the next year or two. At that point I can see an emphasis placed on a strong running game to ease Love into his role. Other than that, it becomes financially volatile to have all those large contracts on offense.

I feel for Jones, really I do. He wants to stay in GB and he's been good to the organization as a teammate and citizen. Unfortunately, I suspect he'll be the one left standing when the contract carousel music stops and he'll be looking for a new home. The consolation prize is he'll likely be a very rich young man.

I kind of assumed we wouldn't sign Adams to a contract coming into the year.

Right now...I don't see how we can let him get away. He comes up in 2022. Even if we move on from Rodgers after 23, you want a WR like Adams to be teamed with Love.

The challenge with 3rd contracts is the player generally is worth it the first half and not worth it the 2nd half.

APB wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 08:54

I imagine the Packer front office is looking toward Jaire Alexander's looming large 2nd contract when they make their decision on Jones. Yes, I'm over-simplifying things but the two contracts are definitely related and impactful toward one another.

Can't say I wouldn't choose Alexander over Jones myself. A shutdown CB is definitely more valuable than a top echelon RB, at least in my view. Especially so in an offense lead by Aaron Rodgers and designed by Matt Lefleur. A quality replacement CB is also harder to find.

About the only way I see the Packers resigning Jones is if they plan to move on from Aaron Rodgers (or expect his retirement, etc) within the next year or two. At that point I can see an emphasis placed on a strong running game to ease Love into his role. Other than that, it becomes financially volatile to have all those large contracts on offense.

I feel for Jones, really I do. He wants to stay in GB and he's been good to the organization as a teammate and citizen. Unfortunately, I suspect he'll be the one left standing when the contract carousel music stops and he'll be looking for a new home. The consolation prize is he'll likely be a very rich young man.

I dunno, you could play that game with any contract. Technically they're all related, but there's no reason that Alexander and Jones should be matched. Moreso I would do that within position groups.

Obviously, we're likely to only keep King or Alexander (2020/21); Jones or Williams (2020); 2 out of Lazard, MVS, EQSB, and Adams(2021). Rodgers or Love (2023/24, sorry, I had to)

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 09:13

I dunno, you could play that game with any contract. Technically they're all related, but there's no reason that Alexander and Jones should be matched. Moreso I would do that within position groups.

They're matched because we're talking top echelon contracts. You can only afford so many of them regardless of positional grouping. Further, those other positional groups will suffer - as will the quality of those backups within the same position groups - if you dole out too many top tier contracts. It's the nature of salary cap economics.

APB wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 09:21

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 09:13

I dunno, you could play that game with any contract. Technically they're all related, but there's no reason that Alexander and Jones should be matched. Moreso I would do that within position groups.

They're matched because we're talking top echelon contracts. You can only afford so many of them regardless of positional grouping. Further, those other positional groups will suffer - as will the quality of those backups within the same position groups - if you dole out too many top tier contracts. It's the nature of salary cap economics.

I agree with this. There is paying a top position group guy and then there is paying NFL highest paid contract.

I have always wondered how many a team can have. Right now we are lucky because for sure we are getting All Pro play from two players who are not being paid All Pro pay.

go pak go wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 07:40

In my opinion, there are 5 Packers players that deserve top of the line NFL contracts.

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. David Bahktiari
3. Davante Adams
4. Kenny Clark (though this could change if 21 is similar to his 20)
5. Jaire Alexander

There other players who deserve high level NFL contracts.

1. Zadarius Smith
2. Corey Linsley
3. Aaron Jones

I honestly think that is it.

Isn't that enough? Understanding that there are way too many variables involved to make a definitive evaluation:

If we take 'top of the line' to mean 5th overall in the league in cap hit, and
If we take 'high level' to mean 10th, and
If we accept Sportrac as an authority, then

The Pack is currently 18mil over the 2021 cap, ranking 28th
Those eight guys, either with their current contracts or the 5th/10th at their position for re-signing, account for 114mil or about 2/3 of the team cap.
Clark jumps 13-15mil the following year, Alexander would jump about 10mil

go pak go wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 09:31

I agree with this. There is paying a top position group guy and then there is paying NFL highest paid contract.

I have always wondered how many a team can have. Right now we are lucky because for sure we are getting All Pro play from two players who are not being paid All Pro pay.

But obviously position matters. Jones could get the richest contract in RB history for less than Adams could get the standard rate for an elite WR and half of the rate for a top QB.

And Jones does not merit and will not get the richest contract in RB history.... "next man up gets more" or not, he will not top $16M/year, where ever he signs. In fact, I'd be shocked if he hits $14M/year.

Mixon's contract (which came after some big ones) is a much better look at his value than McCaffery's; $14M splits the difference.

Also, HUGE difference between getting a $14M/year extension or $14M/year in UFA.

I still think a 2-year, $26 million extension which has the money spread out to utilize remaining cap this year (I know it is fungible and would just roll over, but it still helps over the life of the deal keep out years manageable) so that it's more like a 3-year $27M structure is a perfectly reasonable middle ground given the cap situation going into his UFA year and the positional value he plays. But I'd be willing to see a 4-year extension with a big dummy year in 2024 (first year without Rodgers' contract)

Honestly looking back at the contracts... McCaffery's contract is massive and means to be played out in full; Zeke's is massive and looong

But Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon are all, practically speaking, playing on deals that pay them between $10.5M and $12.5M per year with Kamara's joke of a dummy year thrown in to make the average seem higher.

All signed their contracts this offseason

There is zero reason to expect Jones to get more than $13M/year in new money/new years or more than $12M/year in total money/total years.

I've said this before but it bares repeating, Aaron Jones is not a generic RB situation, for one he's a low mileage pro RB compared to the others, has had no major injury's, and touches to impact, is as good or better then any of these other RB's, we have hardly taped into Jones as a receiver. read.


The most efficient running back in football might be Jones, whose 61% success rate leads all backs.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/281 ... -disasters

in most situations I agree with everyone that thinks that ya pluck a RB, give him the rock 18 to 20 times a game for 4 seasons rinse and repeat, but we havn't done that with Jones ( I was right NCF, jones got 10 run touches against the Colts, my faith in Leroy as been restored ) in fact if anything he has been way under utilized, in fact there are so many yrds, receptions, and points still sitting on the tundra because we kept Jones on the bench, this in itself makes Jones a perfect type RB to pay out a 2nd contract to, I'd give him 3 years , use him as a receiver a bit more, let Dillon do the heavy lifting and wouldn't look back.

always baffles me that fans don't balk at giving a corner or a receiver big time 2nd contracts, and frown on paying a low mileage RB that produces more impact plays then either of the other two, that just makes no sense at all.

Was tied for the NFL lead in rushing TDs (16) in 2019, the second most in team history behind only FB Jim Taylor (19 in 1962), and was tied for the league lead with 19 total TDs, which tied for the second most in franchise annals behind only RB Ahman Green (20 in 2003).
Including playoffs, posted a team-record 23 TDs last season, topping Green's single-season franchise high of 22 TDs in 2003.
Rushed for 28 TDs from 2017-19, the most ever by a Packer in his first three seasons in the NFL.
Is one of only five RBs in league history to post 2,000-plus rushing yards and 25-plus rushing TDs with an average of 5-plus yards per carry in their first three seasons (Paul Lowe, Gale Sayers, Jim Brown, Larry Johnson).
Is one of only two active NFL running backs (Browns RB Nick Chubb) with 450-plus career rushing attempts and an average of 5-plus yards per carry (5.02 average on 450 attempts).
Ranked No. 1 in the league in yards per carry (5.47) in 2018, the first Packer to lead the league in the category since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978.
His career average of 5.02 yards per carry ranks No. 1 in team history among players with 400-plus attempts

https://www.packers.com/team/players-ro ... ron-jones/

Yoop - I’m not even sure who you’re responding to?

Who here has made the point that Jones should not be resigned simply based on talent or tread on his tires? If somebody has argued that point, I must have missed it. What HAS been debated is whether his resigning is palatable based on expected cost, replacement value, and salary cap impact to other players and positions looking into the future.

I don’t think anyone would disagree his talent is atypical nor would anyone argue he’s been under utilized. I haven’t read a single poster remark they’d be happy if Jones was allowed to walk. Matter of fact, his talent and fit for this offense is exactly why fans are second guessing their long held beliefs about resigning a RB to a second contract.

You’re refuting arguments and linking articles to counter points nobody is making.

I want Jones back.

However, who was the last RB to sign a big contract where the team hasn’t regretted the signing?


I feel like this trend became the norm with former MVP Shaun Alexander when he got his big deal.


But like honestly, what RB actually ended up earning their 2nd contract when given top 5 RB money?

APB wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 18:51

Yoop - I’m not even sure who you’re responding to?

Who here has made the point that Jones should not be resigned simply based on talent or tread on his tires? If somebody has argued that point, I must have missed it. What HAS been debated is whether his resigning is palatable based on expected cost, replacement value, and salary cap impact to other players and positions looking into the future.

I don’t think anyone would disagree his talent is atypical nor would anyone argue he’s been under utilized. I haven’t read a single poster remark they’d be happy if Jones was allowed to walk. Matter of fact, his talent and fit for this offense is exactly why fans are second guessing their long held beliefs about resigning a RB to a second contract.

You’re refuting arguments and linking articles to counter points nobody is making.

So you're saying he's winning!

BF004 wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 19:19

I want Jones back.

However, who was the last RB to sign a big contract where the team hasn’t regretted the signing?


I feel like this trend became the norm with former MVP Shaun Alexander when he got his big deal.


But like honestly, what RB actually ended up earning their 2nd contract when given top 5 RB money?

Alexander was a high mileage RB, don't u see the difference.
.
teams resign RB's just like they do WR, it's because of the production, that most are worn out when it happens is what separates them from Jones.

and you've all portrayed Jones to be them and he's actually not.

hey your minds are made up, but I think your wrong.

wasn't responding to anyone in particular, simply trying to make a better case to resign Jones.

we are going to lose players, but I'am not ready to give up a 1/3rd of offensive production to keep a center, or anyone short of the players we've already resigned (Bak Adams, Clark

I showed him compared to these other RB's on the market this year, and how he is valued as high or higher then they are, and I wanted to again slam the point home t5hat letting Jones walk is allowing a 1/4 or more of our offensive production to leave, sure some of it can be replaced, but how much, I don't want to give that up in Rodgers last couple seasons

if we can sign Jones to comparable deals imo that would be a wise investment.

The Kamara and Cook deals as reported average $15 million and $12.5 million, but that’s only in the NFL-contract speak of new money. The numbers that matter are these: Kamara is fully guaranteed $22.8 million, and over the first three years, including this season, averages about $9.8 million. Cook is fully guaranteed $26 million, and the first three years average $9.1 million.

APB wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 09:21

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

18 Dec 2020 09:13

I dunno, you could play that game with any contract. Technically they're all related, but there's no reason that Alexander and Jones should be matched. Moreso I would do that within position groups.

They're matched because we're talking top echelon contracts. You can only afford so many of them regardless of positional grouping. Further, those other positional groups will suffer - as will the quality of those backups within the same position groups - if you dole out too many top tier contracts. It's the nature of salary cap economics.

LET THEM SUFFER, you want to dump a third of our offensive production to keep what A CB, a G a C ??

one of the first things thompson did was dump OL so he could increase offensive impact positions, drafted Jennings, and traded for Grant

a team can get by skimping on every position. except the ones that score points