Packers Huddle

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 03:50

And there is where we disagree. IMO a 2nd round pick plus 5 mil is a steal for every other team in the league.

Where are you getting this $5M number for Tonyan? If another team signs him, its going to cost more than that. If he's considered one of the 2 best TE's in the league, you are talking about $10-15M/year.

paco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 06:59

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 03:50

And there is where we disagree. IMO a 2nd round pick plus 5 mil is a steal for every other team in the league.

Where are you getting this $5M number for Tonyan? If another team signs him, its going to cost more than that. If he's considered one of the 2 best TE's in the league, you are talking about $10-15M/year.

The 2nd round tender is 3.7 mil, I believe, and the first round tender is 4.7. Rounded up to 5. I believe the way it works is that if the Packers put a 1st round tender on him then they must pay him 4.7 mil. Except that if another team offers to pay 5 mil, then the Packers can pay him 5 mil or lose him and get compensated with a 1st round draft pick. Of course the other team could offer to pay him $10 mil and then the Packers get their 1st round pick because apparently the Packers don't have $10 mil to match with.

How good Tonyan is is the big question. If he can repeat this last season, he is IMO elite. If he improves as a second year starter normally improves, he and Kittle are the 2 best TE's in the league and Tonyan is worth every cent Kittle got, 5 years for $75 mil, $15 mil a year. My argument is that based on catch percentage and lack of drops and fumbles and on TD's, Tonyan is already elite. Others say that yards per season is more important than TD's or lack of drops or not fumbling or making the really difficult catch.

I don't think there is anyone here that would argue that Tonyan is not better than Jimmy Graham. Yet Jimmy had a salary cap hit for $6 mil in 2020 and will have a cap of $10 mil this coming season. He has not been cut yet and the word is the Bears will keep him and pay him $10 mil.

God what a baffling signing Graham was here. What a finesse. Good on his agent to not only steal from the Packers but then fleece the Bears as well.

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 09:55

God what a baffling signing Graham was here. What a finesse. Good on his agent to not only steal from the Packers but then fleece the Bears as well.

You had that one pegged, too?

I don't know many who were not really excited about signing Jimmy Graham. It didn't work, but I think most really, really thought it would.

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 09:51

paco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 06:59

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 03:50

And there is where we disagree. IMO a 2nd round pick plus 5 mil is a steal for every other team in the league.

Where are you getting this $5M number for Tonyan? If another team signs him, its going to cost more than that. If he's considered one of the 2 best TE's in the league, you are talking about $10-15M/year.

The 2nd round tender is 3.7 mil, I believe, and the first round tender is 4.7. Rounded up to 5. I believe the way it works is that if the Packers put a 1st round tender on him then they must pay him 4.7 mil. Except that if another team offers to pay 5 mil, then the Packers can pay him 5 mil or lose him and get compensated with a 1st round draft pick. Of course the other team could offer to pay him $10 mil and then the Packers get their 1st round pick because apparently the Packers don't have $10 mil to match with.

How good Tonyan is is the big question. If he can repeat this last season, he is IMO elite. If he improves as a second year starter normally improves, he and Kittle are the 2 best TE's in the league and Tonyan is worth every cent Kittle got, 5 years for $75 mil, $15 mil a year. My argument is that based on catch percentage and lack of drops and fumbles and on TD's, Tonyan is already elite. Others say that yards per season is more important than TD's or lack of drops or not fumbling or making the really difficult catch.

I don't think there is anyone here that would argue that Tonyan is not better than Jimmy Graham. Yet Jimmy had a salary cap hit for $6 mil in 2020 and will have a cap of $10 mil this coming season. He has not been cut yet and the word is the Bears will keep him and pay him $10 mil.

I think you are close on the idea. The tender we put on a player doesn't matter to another team when it comes to the money, just the draft pick.

Any team who wants to potentially sign a RFA goes into it like any other free agent. They work out a deal that both sides agree to. Then the Packers get to choose whether to match that deal. If we do, we keep the player and pay him that amount. If we don't, we get the draft pick and the other team pays him what was agreed upon. The only place the tender amount comes into play is if no other team offers them a deal. Then that's what he pay him, if that player signs the tender.

My argument here with your thinking is that a team would most likely have to offer Tonyan much more that $5M/year. Plus give us a 2nd round pick if we tender him at that level.

2 reasons I think this. Main one is Tonyan is going to go into this asking for top TE money. I don't think he agrees to a deal that takes him away from GB for only 1-2M more per year than the possible tenders. He'd rather stay with GB and Rodgers and potentially sign a big deal next year. So it's go for the big deal now, or stay.

2nd reason is I don't think any team is willing to give up a 2nd round pick and pay Tonyan 10-15M per year right now. I could be wrong, but I just don't see anyone doing that. If he put up these numbers 2 years in a row, he might get those offers, but not yet. $5M sure, but again, I don't think Tonyan agrees to that.

paco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 10:28

2 reasons I think this. Main one is Tonyan is going to go into this asking for top TE money. I don't think he agrees to a deal that takes him away from GB for only 1-2M more per year than the possible tenders. He'd rather stay with GB and Rodgers and potentially sign a big deal next year. So it's go for the big deal now, or stay.

Even if he wouldn't rather stay, another benefit of the RFA tender is we can match any contract offer he receives. Done deal. Whether Tonyan likes it or not, the negotiation is over and the contract is ours. The other team just negotiated it for us.

NCF wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 10:41

paco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 10:28

2 reasons I think this. Main one is Tonyan is going to go into this asking for top TE money. I don't think he agrees to a deal that takes him away from GB for only 1-2M more per year than the possible tenders. He'd rather stay with GB and Rodgers and potentially sign a big deal next year. So it's go for the big deal now, or stay.

Even if he wouldn't rather stay, another benefit of the RFA tender is we can match any contract offer he receives. Done deal. Whether Tonyan likes it or not, the negotiation is over and the contract is ours. The other team just negotiated it for us.

Exactly. And I'm sure the Packers already have a price in mind when it comes to Tonyan. Both for this year and for next year based on whatever his performance will be. The front office looks at all of this stuff years in advance. While we debate this stuff when it comes up, they know how far they are willing to go for every player years in advance in most cases.

Just to steer this away from Tonyan for a bit. Here are our other RFA's. Some interesting decisions in there. Does anyone want to pay any of these guys even the $2.133M? I want some of them back, but I think there is a good chance non are tendered and we try to bring them back on lower contracts. Sullivan may be the only exception as I think the team still likes him a good deal (as do I though not quite the same role as last year).

Tim Boyle
Raven Green
Tyler Lancaster
Parry Nickerson
Chandon Sullivan

paco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 11:05

I want some of them back, but I think there is a good chance none are tendered and we try to bring them back on lower contracts.

I agree entirely and my vote would be to non-tender the entire lot (other than Tonyan). We are over there nickel and diming a potential JJ Watt deal, someone that actually will make an impact on our 2021 season, and then to come back over here and give these guys $2M+ a pop just doesn't work for me.

NCF wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 11:19

paco wrote: ↑

25 Feb 2021 11:05

I want some of them back, but I think there is a good chance none are tendered and we try to bring them back on lower contracts.

I agree entirely and my vote would be to non-tender the entire lot (other than Tonyan). We are over there nickel and diming a potential JJ Watt deal, someone that actually will make an impact on our 2021 season, and then to come back over here and give these guys $2M+ a pop just doesn't work for me.

Pretty much agree. I suppose that under the right circumstances, Boyle might be traded, Lancaster might fit in a different scheme and the light bulb might go on for a DB's. But the Packers don't have the cap space to give any of them a tender.

Soooo.....anybody still fretting over the 2nd rd tender placed on Tonyan?

APB wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:05

Soooo.....anybody still fretting over the 2nd rd tender placed on Tonyan?

crickets, would seem GM's think Tonyan is a product of system and a HOF QB, if he does it again this coming year he'll garner more attention, some say he needs to improve his blocking, myself, I think we should try and long term him during the season, same with Adams and MVS, right now those 3 are the nucleus of our passing attack.

Yoop wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:57

APB wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:05

Soooo.....anybody still fretting over the 2nd rd tender placed on Tonyan?

crickets, would seem GM's think Tonyan is a product of system and a HOF QB, if he does it again this coming year he'll garner more attention, some say he needs to improve his blocking, myself, I think we should try and long term him during the season, same with Adams and MVS, right now those 3 are the nucleus of our passing attack.

I don't necessarily think other GMs think he's a product of a system or a HOF QB, just that his production and consistency has not (yet) reached a value point to justify spending high dollar AND give up a 2nd rd pick. I certainly think there are plenty of GMs out there who would love to add Tonyan for one or the other, just not both.

And disagree with MVS as part of passing attack nucleus. He's a nice (and necessary) deep threat complimentary piece but he is not someone that can't be wholly replaced. Just you wait, we'll be moaning about his routes and drops (again) in no time.

Yoop wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:57

APB wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:05

Soooo.....anybody still fretting over the 2nd rd tender placed on Tonyan?

crickets, would seem GM's think Tonyan is a product of system and a HOF QB, if he does it again this coming year he'll garner more attention, some say he needs to improve his blocking, myself, I think we should try and long term him during the season, same with Adams and MVS, right now those 3 are the nucleus of our passing attack.

I think it has more to do with Tonyan being a UDFA his entire career and only getting any meaningful snaps until 2020. Tonyan has been an injury risk and also poor at blocking who is developing into a player. If he stacks success in 2021....then people will start to take notice.

But would I give up a huge contract that the Packers wouldn't match AND a 2nd round pick to boot?

Uh...no. I don't think it's a system thing. I think it's a "you've only done it for a year thing"

It's also a "literally no one in the history of the 2nd round tender has changed teams and the thought that we should worry about it this year was always ridiculous" thing.

Yeah, I said it was more likely we’d do no compensation tender than we’d do the 1st round.

go pak go wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 10:12

Yoop wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:57

APB wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:05

Soooo.....anybody still fretting over the 2nd rd tender placed on Tonyan?

crickets, would seem GM's think Tonyan is a product of system and a HOF QB, if he does it again this coming year he'll garner more attention, some say he needs to improve his blocking, myself, I think we should try and long term him during the season, same with Adams and MVS, right now those 3 are the nucleus of our passing attack.

I think it has more to do with Tonyan being a UDFA his entire career and only getting any meaningful snaps until 2020. Tonyan has been an injury risk and also poor at blocking who is developing into a player. If he stacks success in 2021....then people will start to take notice.

But would I give up a huge contract that the Packers wouldn't match AND a 2nd round pick to boot?

Uh...no. I don't think it's a system thing. I think it's a "you've only done it for a year thing"

I was always fine with the 2nd round tender, didn't think we'd have to match any offers, the reason I think Tonyan benefited from scheme and QB is that Robert only had about a doz contested catches and 3 of those where in the PO's, most of the time he was wide open, and the throws where right on target, now if I notice stuff like that you can be sure GM's that burn a lot more whale blubber (midnight oil) watching game film will pick up on that quick, in another system it's possible that Tonyan would struggle.

with us though he's a great fit because MLF schemes demand coverage to #1 Adams, or MVS or a RB, rarely is Tonyan the #1 read. just my opinion.

Yoop wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 10:59

go pak go wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 10:12

Yoop wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:57

crickets, would seem GM's think Tonyan is a product of system and a HOF QB, if he does it again this coming year he'll garner more attention, some say he needs to improve his blocking, myself, I think we should try and long term him during the season, same with Adams and MVS, right now those 3 are the nucleus of our passing attack.

I think it has more to do with Tonyan being a UDFA his entire career and only getting any meaningful snaps until 2020. Tonyan has been an injury risk and also poor at blocking who is developing into a player. If he stacks success in 2021....then people will start to take notice.

But would I give up a huge contract that the Packers wouldn't match AND a 2nd round pick to boot?

Uh...no. I don't think it's a system thing. I think it's a "you've only done it for a year thing"

I was always fine with the 2nd round tender, didn't think we'd have to match any offers, the reason I think Tonyan benefited from scheme and QB is that Robert only had about a doz contested catches and 3 of those where in the PO's, most of the time he was wide open, and the throws where right on target, now if I notice stuff like that you can be sure GM's that burn a lot more whale blubber (midnight oil) watching game film will pick up on that quick, in another system it's possible that Tonyan would struggle.

with us though he's a great fit because MLF schemes demand coverage to #1 Adams, or MVS or a RB, rarely is Tonyan the #1 read. just my opinion.

I agree with that the scheme helped him a lot. The dude also had some greeeaaaatttt catches that were errant throws. I think of that Houston game where it was a TD if it was thrown better but he still found a way to get under it. Also had a play in the Title Game but the ball went to Lazard instead on the interception.

But then as you stated, Tonyan also had times where I have never seen a player so wide open in my life.

APB wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 07:05

Soooo.....anybody still fretting over the 2nd rd tender placed on Tonyan?

I was one of the fretters...based on the idea that there's a dearth of quality TE's in this draft and that a late-drafting contender like Buffalo might throw a pick at him. As far as " he's only done it for one year" that's vastly more informative than a college player who hasn't played a single down in the NFL.

I'll take the L on being a silly RFA fretter... but I think many are underestimating Tonyan's value vs an unproven draftee in the 2021 draft. I'll go even further and state that Robert Tonyan will have a better, more productive career than any TE not named Kyle Pitts in this upcoming draft.

I respect Tonyan but he was a ghost for long stretches in games and it was obvious Rodgers was hunting for him often in the red zone. He rewarded Rodgers by catching the ball, but with production history, injury history, and less than stellar blocking skills...I did not expect to have any problems keeping him.

BSA wrote: ↑

22 Apr 2021 12:17

I'll take the L on being a silly RFA fretter... but I think many are underestimating Tonyan's value vs an unproven draftee in the 2021 draft. I'll go even further and state that Robert Tonyan will have a better, more productive career than any TE not named Kyle Pitts in this upcoming draft.

Oh, he definitely will. That's how rookie TEs go.

But that's also not how teams use draft picks, generally. I mean, one could argue that Jamal Williams is a safer, more proven option at RB than any of the draftees, especially after round 2. But that doesn't mean it's a good move to trade a 3rd round pick for him. If it was just about safety of the player, teams would be anxious to trade away draft capital for proven guys and it would be the norm. As it is, the vast majority of draft picks are made, and not traded for veterans.