Packers Huddle

2019:
Graham - 69 targets
Jones - 75 targets
Williams - 49 targets
Lewis - 21 targets
Tonyan - 15 targets
Vitale - 12 targets
Ervin - 5 targets
Carson - 4 targets
Sternberger - 4 targets

2020:
Tonyan - 67 targets
Jones - 71 targets
Williams - 31 targets
Lewis - 20 targets
Sternberger - 15 targets
Ervin - 15 targets
Dillon - 3 targets
Dafney - 2 targets
Degura - 2 targets

I was just curious to see if we were using our non-WRs in the passing game more. Here is what I found. 2019 saw 254 targets to non-WRs. 2020 saw 226 targets to non-WRs. 2018 saw 230 targets to non-WRs. Attempts were similar year over year.

Well I just think any attempt to recreate the roster urgency of last offseason at the position is just barking up the wrong tree.

I don't disagree that we need more WR's. Though the soon to be rapidly rising cap should make it feasible to keep one of MVS or Lazard. We kept James Jones back in the day and it worked out for us.

Imagine how defenses are going to scheme with Aaron Jones and Davante Adams on the field at the same time with Dillon. That's 2 guys who can bust a big play any time, combined with a freight train of a RB who has already shown he can catch a few passes. (Oh, I really can't wait to see a well-executed screen pass with him!)

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 11:58

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good post, and to think we got Jones for a bargain discount, this has to be one of Guty's smartest decisions, we should renew his contract next, no cap issues and the teams got money to burn, gettur done Murphy

Waldo wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:31

Well I just think any attempt to recreate the roster urgency of last offseason at the position is just barking up the wrong tree.

I don't disagree that we need more WR's. Though the soon to be rapidly rising cap should make it feasible to keep one of MVS or Lazard. We kept James Jones back in the day and it worked out for us.

we should look for a upgrade of Erving and then maybe in the 4th or 5th take another shot at a WR, lots of the stuff Lafluer likes to do revolves around some sort of motion, when Ervin went out we brought in Austin that tells me the position is important.

I think MVS stays unless he really declines, speed as a costly commodity.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:30

2019:
Graham - 69 targets
Jones - 75 targets
Williams - 49 targets
Lewis - 21 targets
Tonyan - 15 targets
Vitale - 12 targets
Ervin - 5 targets
Carson - 4 targets
Sternberger - 4 targets

2020:
Tonyan - 67 targets
Jones - 71 targets
Williams - 31 targets
Lewis - 20 targets
Sternberger - 15 targets
Ervin - 15 targets
Dillon - 3 targets
Dafney - 2 targets
Degura - 2 targets

I was just curious to see if we were using our non-WRs in the passing game more. Here is what I found. 2019 saw 254 targets to non-WRs. 2020 saw 226 targets to non-WRs. 2018 saw 230 targets to non-WRs. Attempts were similar year over year.

We did have that few game stretch in 2019 where basically all our WRs were hurt that likely skews things quite a bit, as Jones got a ton of receiving action over that stretch.

Crazy though:
2019 Jimmy Graham - 38/60, 447 yd (7.5 ypt), 3 TD, 1 fmb, 23 1D, 63.3% catch rate
2020 Robert Tonyan - 52/59, 586 yd (9.9 ypt), 11 TD, 0 fmb, 33 1D, 88.1% catch rate

I mean holy cow what an upgrade

Yoop wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:34

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 11:58

image.png

good post, and to think we got Jones for a bargain discount, this has to be one of Guty's smartest decisions, we should renew his contract next, no cap issues and the teams got money to burn, gettur done Murphy

Yeah and I think we just got really lucky dealing with Aaron Jones.

I am convinced he could have gotten a lot more if he wanted it. But I think he truly values being a Packer.

I am in such a better mood regarding the Green Bay Packers for the next two years now.

Waldo wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:40

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:30

2019:
Graham - 69 targets
Jones - 75 targets
Williams - 49 targets
Lewis - 21 targets
Tonyan - 15 targets
Vitale - 12 targets
Ervin - 5 targets
Carson - 4 targets
Sternberger - 4 targets

2020:
Tonyan - 67 targets
Jones - 71 targets
Williams - 31 targets
Lewis - 20 targets
Sternberger - 15 targets
Ervin - 15 targets
Dillon - 3 targets
Dafney - 2 targets
Degura - 2 targets

I was just curious to see if we were using our non-WRs in the passing game more. Here is what I found. 2019 saw 254 targets to non-WRs. 2020 saw 226 targets to non-WRs. 2018 saw 230 targets to non-WRs. Attempts were similar year over year.

We did have that few game stretch in 2019 where basically all our WRs were hurt that likely skews things quite a bit, as Jones got a ton of receiving action over that stretch.

Crazy though:
2019 Jimmy Graham - 38/60, 447 yd (7.5 ypt), 3 TD, 1 fmb, 23 1D, 63.3% catch rate
2020 Robert Tonyan - 52/59, 586 yd (9.9 ypt), 11 TD, 0 fmb, 33 1D, 88.1% catch rate

I mean holy cow what an upgrade

I don't want to derail this, but I am saying a 2nd round tender may not be enough. May not.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:48

I don't want to derail this, but I am saying a 2nd round tender may not be enough. May not.

Then, I say, "so be it". A 2nd-rounder can buy a really good TE in many draft classes. I refuse to believe Tonyan is getting any offers on a 2nd-round tender, though. I feel it is safe. You may be right, I may be right. We'll know soon enough what Gute thinks and shortly after we will know if that was good enough.

NCF wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 13:00

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 12:48

I don't want to derail this, but I am saying a 2nd round tender may not be enough. May not.

Then, I say, "so be it". A 2nd-rounder can buy a really good TE in many draft classes. I refuse to believe Tonyan is getting any offers on a 2nd-round tender, though. I feel it is safe. You may be right, I may be right. We'll know soon enough what Gute thinks and shortly after we will know if that was good enough.

I also lean toward the 2nd rd tender being good enough to keep him but I guess we’ll see.

From past experience, the longer it takes for the details to leak, the better the deal is for the Packers. Still crickets.

Might not end up being a bad deal at all.

Since folks were talking about versatility, let's not forget about our FB/H-back/TE Deguara. Another guy who can be flexed out to many spots, or can stay to pass pro or run a safety valve route while Jones is flexed out.

With Jones at RB, imagine being an opposing D looking at the tape during a short week. The same formation can become something else entirely - a Transformers offense

BF004 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 13:13

From past experience, the long it takes for the details to leak, the better the deal is for the Packers. Still crickets.

Might not end up being a bad deal at all.

Yeah, as soon as I saw the early leak was just the max amount and the signing bonus, I knew the agent was bummed out

salmar80 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 13:23

BF004 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 13:13

From past experience, the long it takes for the details to leak, the better the deal is for the Packers. Still crickets.

Might not end up being a bad deal at all.

Yeah, as soon as I saw the early leak was just the max amount and the signing bonus, I knew the agent was bummed out

Oh for SURE. Especially that the initial leak mentioned that he "could have had more but wanted to stay with the packers." This is a lot of sad agent talk. The deal is gonna be just dandy.

I still would have preferred a franchise tag and draft a replacement, but I'm not mad about it. Nor did I EVER buy that drafting Dillon meant Jones was gone. Dillan and Jones don't play the same roles. Dillon was drafted to upgrade Williams and smash people. Not to replace our dynamic playmaking guy.

BF004 wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 13:13

From past experience, the longer it takes for the details to leak, the better the deal is for the Packers. Still crickets.

Might not end up being a bad deal at all.

Yeah I mean when we hear the high end number is incredibly incentive driven and the avg. APY is closer to $9.5 million....this might be a REALLY good deal for us.

I honestly expect the cap hit to be close to the same for 2021 and 2022 regardless of the deal. But this deal could be truly set up where it actually is a "4 year deal" and not a "2 year deal" if you get my drift.

So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?

NCF wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 16:26

So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?

Truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount.

NCF wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 16:26

So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?

That might have made sense while we were deciding to use it or if we did use. Once we didn’t use it for sure, pretty sure that wasn’t impacting the deal anymore.

NCF wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 16:26

So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?

I don't think the deal is egregiously low though it is definitely lower than I expected.

Dalvin Cook signed a 5 year deal worth $63 million so basically 5 years at $12 million.
Aaron Jones signed a 4 year deal worth $48 million so basically 4 years at $12 million.

The difference is guaranteed money. Dalvin not only got a $15 million signing bonus but also $28 million guaranteed. We don't know Jones's structure but it sounds like $13 million is guaranteed and I bet because of cap reasons, basically all of that is sign bonus. It will be interesting to see what his base salary is in Year 1 and Year 2.

Now I actually think Kamara, Cook and McCaffrey deserve higher deals than Jones because I think the system really helps Jones and we have shown numerous times we can win without either Jones or Adams, but I also think Jones left a significant chunk on the table because he wants to stay a Packer.

NCF wrote: ↑

15 Mar 2021 16:26

So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?

I think it's a market value deal (or very close to one) dressed as a hometown discount.

I personally think that the number cases when players have actually taken significantly discounted deals is very, very low. "Hometown discount" is usually agent speak for "market value turned up to be lesser than expected . Let's dress it up as a hometown discount to make the player more popular and not look like we F'd up as agents."

As fans, it's sweet and heart warming to think "awww, he REALLY likes us and my team and hometown and, by extension, me!" , instead of "he didn't get the cash he wanted elsewhere, so it made business sense to return" .

I mean, no player EVER comes out and says "damn, I expected way more, don't really care about where or whom I play for since I'll likely to be moving again in a few years and it's just a work place, and I only do this for the money", even if all of that were true in a lotta cases...

In Jones' case, had there been any serious bidding war for his services, there's no way in heck he'd be back with us. But if the deals offered by other teams and the Packers were extremely close, he may have chosen GB due to proven scheme fit and other hometown factors.

NFL free agency negotiating period may start officially today, and the official free agency may begin on Wednesday, but those are just official dates. The market isn't set today nor Wednesday, it has been set during a full season and off-season of behind-the-scenes tampering. That's how so many deals can be announced today. It's not like the agents and front offices were just tanning on a beach all off-season until this morning.

The tag serves as the minimum guaranteed when negotiating an early extension, and also as leverage for the team. But it ceased to have meaning after the tag deadline passed last Tuesday.