Aaron Jones - prepping to get paid

[YoHoChecko]

Have read in the past day or two that neither Kenyon Drake nor Derek Henry are expected to reach extensions before the deadline and thus will play on the tag this season. Joe Mixon is also tagged.

I had come around to the brilliance of offering Jones a short extension with high level competitive new money/new years, but a decent overall value, like 2-years $26 million which amounts to a 3-year $28 million deal.

But thinking about it, having Jones see the free agent market at the same time as Drake, Henry, and Mixon next off-season where money might be a little tighter than normal might really depress RB contract value. Bit of a risk, but an interesting one

[APB]

[mention]YoHoChecko[/mention]

That’s an interesting scenario. Could really work in the team’s favor, especially if Jones takes a step back in production or suffers a multi-game injury. It could also work against if Jones continues to excel and reaches that elite status.

Things to also consider: How real is the threat of an actual salary cap reduction as a result of reduced capacity stadiums? And how significant would it be? That could be very impactful next year, specifically.

Side note: where do you place Jones in the pecking order of those RB’s you listed? I personally would prefer him over Drake and Mixon as a fit in the Packer offense.

[YoHoChecko]

@YoHoChecko

That’s an interesting scenario. Could really work in the team’s favor, especially if Jones takes a step back in production or suffers a multi-game injury. It could also work against if Jones continues to excel and reaches that elite status.

Things to also consider: How real is the threat of an actual salary cap reduction as a result of reduced capacity stadiums? And how significant would it be? That could be very impactful next year, specifically.

Side note: where do you place Jones in the pecking order of those RB’s you listed? I personally would prefer him over Drake and Mixon as a fit in the Packer offense.

I would say that I'd rather keep Jones than import any of those three; however I do think that Mixon is a comparable talent level just different talents; more of an every down guy that you don't limit snaps as much. And I think Drake and Jones are incredibly similar in terms of skillset and ability. I think the real tiebreaker is mostly just familiarity and comfort in the system and in the locker room.

The hope is mostly that the availability of several top backs would drive down the market and allow us to keep Jones a bit cheaper. But like I said and you reiterated, it's a gamble that could also backfire if he confirms elite status.

[BF004]

My offseason priority list would be: (Given each player continues at roughly the level they have been playing and stay at least moderately healthy and finish the year not on IR)

1. Clark
2. Bakhtiari

I would use the franchise tag on either if a long term deal can't be reached. 3rd contract for Bak shouldn't be a given, but I have a really hard time not putting the franchise tag on him at the what it takes for OL. That might be up a bit after Tunsil's contract, but not a ton.

For reference

image.png (35.83 KiB) Viewed 546 times

3. King

In a tier by himself here, given positional priority. Our D gets much much worse when he is off the field, I have a feeling he provide and impact on the D that doesn't always show up on the stat sheet.



4. Jones
5. Linsley

For Jones, you just really have to set a price at the end of the year and not budge from it. Easier to let someone like him go with a high draft pick vested at the position now. Like Linsley, but already dishing too many 2nd contracts on the OL. Especially if we sign Bak again, gotta force yourself to get younger sometimes.




For what it's worth (nothing really other than sparking conversation) but Sportrac has Market Value assessments out for Clark and Jones, 5 years and 91 million for Clark (I think he's gunna get 20+) and 4 years and 52.8 for Jones, which I think is fair-ish, but I also don't think he gets that and I hope we go nowhere near that.

[NCF]

[Packfntk]

And so is the RB draft class of 2021. Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, Trey Sirmon, Brian Robinson, Rakeem Boyd, B.J. Emmons, Elijah Mitchell, Larry Rountree, Chris Evans, Trey Ragas...

Yeah, RB's aren't going to "get that bag" like they think they are.

[YoHoChecko]

Wow, deeper than I realized.

I'm really hoping for dynasty purposes that Kenyon Drake and Joe Mixon move on, but I imagine a potentially flooded market will lead to a lot of guys staying put

[salmar80]

And so is the RB draft class of 2021. Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, Trey Sirmon, Brian Robinson, Rakeem Boyd, B.J. Emmons, Elijah Mitchell, Larry Rountree, Chris Evans, Trey Ragas...

Yeah, RB's aren't going to "get that bag" like they think they are.

All that combined with us having a 2nd round rookie RB, and a mere 10.2M tag price, and Jones' leverage isn't looking great. And even if we lose Jones to FA, there's likely to be a quality bargain vet.

Becoming an RB sure ain't the best football career position choice (if there was a choice).

[TheGreenMan]

And so is the RB draft class of 2021. Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, Trey Sirmon, Brian Robinson, Rakeem Boyd, B.J. Emmons, Elijah Mitchell, Larry Rountree, Chris Evans, Trey Ragas...

Yeah, RB's aren't going to "get that bag" like they think they are.

All that combined with us having a 2nd round rookie RB, and a mere 10.2M tag price, and Jones' leverage isn't looking great. And even if we lose Jones to FA, there's likely to be a quality bargain vet.

Becoming an RB sure ain't the best football career position choice (if there was a choice).

Man, does it still seem hard to imagine this offense without Jones though. Definitely didn't get this feeling moving on from a Starks, Grant, or Lacey. Even moving on from Green, who was on the backend of his career. I think it makes it even more difficult to swallow is #12 probably doesn't have a lot of time left here.

What's it going to take to keep him around.

[wallyuwl]

Do we need Jones if Dillon is our version of Henry (physically they are really close)?

[TheGreenMan]

Do we need Jones if Dillon is our version of Henry (physically they are really close)?

Yes...? No..? I'm not sure. Henry is a monster though, so if Dillon becomes him... that would be awesome. Is Jones going to be the focal point of this offense this year, based on what LaFleur is dialing up? If yeah, well Dillon is a completely different back than Jones.

[YoHoChecko]

Do we need Jones if Dillon is our version of Henry (physically they are really close)?

Yes...? No..? I'm not sure. Henry is a monster though, so if Dillon becomes him... that would be awesome. Is Jones going to be the focal point of this offense this year, based on what LaFleur is dialing up? If yeah, well Dillon is a completely different back than Jones.

I think it would be truly awesome to have Jones and Dillon given their difference and the need for multiple backs to get through a season. I also think Dillon's rookie contract and the likelihood that any RB depth would also be on rookie contracts makes it relatively inexpensive to pay one RB and have the rest at near-minimum deals.

I also totally understand if we can't make it work and choose to invest resources elsewhere because paying RBs is very tricky and should be done cautiously. If we don't re-sign Jones, I would hope that we take a Day 3 RB with explosive traits and suddenness in the draft, though, because having both skillsets is very useful.

[YoHoChecko]

And look, 2022 might be a bit of a gamble, and certainly COVID will play a part in how some of this shakes out, but check out this exerpt from The Big lead:

image.png (127.54 KiB) Viewed 452 times

[wallyuwl]

And look, 2022 might be a bit of a gamble, and certainly COVID will play a part in how some of this shakes out, but check out this exerpt from The Big lead:

image.png

Yeah, the part about that story or the estimations in that story being pre-corona is a very important thing. Because of two things: 1) lost revenue for owners with no butts in seats this year, and possibly no season at all, and 2) the NFL's social justice stances. The NFL has the oldest and whitest viewership in all sports. Like it or not, fans came back in 2019 because players kept their mouths shut. Now the NFL is all in on the SJW train including prioritizing the "black national anthem" over the National Anthem, and it is highly probably viewership levels will go down to 2017 or 2018 levels or lower. FOX, ESPN, etc. will make business decisions about profit: they can't pay the NFL $2 billion per year but only recoup $1.5 billion in advertising (and advertisers pay based on number and demographics that they expect to watch their ads). So predicting tv revenue two or three years from now is tricky for the league and teams.

[YoHoChecko]

Yeah, the part about that story or the estimations in that story being pre-corona is a very important thing. Because of two things: 1) lost revenue for owners with no butts in seats this year, and possibly no season at all, and 2) the NFL's social justice stances. The NFL has the oldest and whitest viewership in all sports. Like it or not, fans came back in 2019 because players kept their mouths shut. Now the NFL is all in on the SJW train including prioritizing the "black national anthem" over the National Anthem, and it is highly probably viewership levels will go down to 2017 or 2018 levels or lower. FOX, ESPN, etc. will make business decisions about profit: they can't pay the NFL $2 billion per year but only recoup $1.5 billion in advertising (and advertisers pay based on number and demographics that they expect to watch their ads). So predicting tv revenue two or three years from now is tricky for the league and teams.

The NFL has not seen any problem drawing viewers. They are not losing any money based on any perceived political stances. They are routinely like 45 of the top 50-watched television programs every year. There's not a chance in heck that the amount of money that live programming is worth to networks is decreasing. That's a speculative theory in contrast with any evidence. The more streaming increases, the more valuable the limited amount of live programming available becomes.

The COVID stuff will be interesting. Stadium revenues are minescule in the grand scheme, so I'm not concerned too much about that impact, but the chance of a cancelled or shortened season is pretty high, and that will have a major impact, if it happens.

The current negotiations include ideas about how to cope with these losses; some owners are pushing to only spread losses over 2 years, 2020 and 2021, impacting the cap a lot but only for a couple years. The players are pushing to spread the losses out over the life of the CBA to mitigate the impact in any individual year. The agreement will probably meet in the middle--especially if GMs and coaches get in their owners' ear about the cap impacts. If the losses are spread over 10 or even 5 years, in addition to the TV rights, the cap impact will barely be felt.

The NBA has been FAR more social-justice oriented than the NFL and their TV deal jumped 60% from their previous deal. Their top salaries doubled over a 5-year span. The last NFL deal was several years ago and also jumped 60% over the previous deal. If the NFL even gets a very watered don increase due to current economic realities, it would still probably include a jump of 40-50% over the previous deal. The TV money will flood the cap, for sure. The question is more along the lines of how soon it will come, how big the COVID revenue losses are, and how the players and teams negotiate those losses' application to the CBA.

Anyway, we have Rodgers right now, economic and cap uncertainty in the short term, and a windfall of SOME amount coming. I'm kicking the can to 2022/3 as much as I can. It's the most reasonable course of action.

[wallyuwl]

The NBA has been FAR more social-justice oriented than the NFL and their TV deal jumped 60% from their previous deal. Their top salaries doubled over a 5-year span. The last NFL deal was several years ago and also jumped 60% over the previous deal. If the NFL even gets a very watered don increase due to current economic realities, it would still probably include a jump of 40-50% over the previous deal. The TV money will flood the cap, for sure. The question is more along the lines of how soon it will come, how big the COVID revenue losses are, and how the players and teams negotiate those losses' application to the CBA.

Anyway, we have Rodgers right now, economic and cap uncertainty in the short term, and a windfall of SOME amount coming. I'm kicking the can to 2022/3 as much as I can. It's the most reasonable course of action.

The NBA's audience is vastly different from the NFL's. Can't compare the two. Anyway, I'm not saying the tv revenue will go down. But a return to the viewership numbers of 2016-2018 will keep down the increase. I think it was 2017 where CBS had to pay advertisers back $220 million or something due to less viewers than they promised, it was discussed on this forum (well, packersnews.net) a fair amount at the time.

[lupedafiasco]

Alright this thread needs to die. Do we all like Jones? That should be a unanimous yes. Hes a terrific player. That being said the priority is D Bak and Woah Kenny! We have an estimated 30 mil next year to spend. I would expect just between those two we are going to hit 30 mil. Thats not including Kevin King.

We just drafted a 2nd round RB and lets be honest about the history of paying RBs in the last decade. Its crippling to a team. Theres buyers remorse all over the place.

This is the price you pay when you have incompetence at GM. You end up overpaying and drafting poorly for so long you cant afford to keep the better talent on the team. It is what it is.

[Drj820]

Alright this thread needs to die. Do we all like Jones? That should be a unanimous yes. Hes a terrific player. That being said the priority is D Bak and Woah Kenny! We have an estimated 30 mil next year to spend. I would expect just between those two we are going to hit 30 mil. Thats not including Kevin King.

We just drafted a 2nd round RB and lets be honest about the history of paying RBs in the last decade. Its crippling to a team. Theres buyers remorse all over the place.

This is the price you pay when you have incompetence at GM. You end up overpaying and drafting poorly for so long you cant afford to keep the better talent on the team. It is what it is.

I’m gonna choose to live in denial about Jones and still hope we keep him.

[Yoop]

Alright this thread needs to die. Do we all like Jones? That should be a unanimous yes. Hes a terrific player. That being said the priority is D Bak and Woah Kenny! We have an estimated 30 mil next year to spend. I would expect just between those two we are going to hit 30 mil. Thats not including Kevin King.

We just drafted a 2nd round RB and lets be honest about the history of paying RBs in the last decade. Its crippling to a team. Theres buyers remorse all over the place.

This is the price you pay when you have incompetence at GM. You end up overpaying and drafting poorly for so long you cant afford to keep the better talent on the team. It is what it is.

I’m gonna choose to live in denial about Jones and still hope we keep him.

to funny, this thread needs to die because people aren't agreeing with Lupe, and a couple RB contracts didn't work out and all of a sudden there is buyer remorse, and oh ya, Ted sucks did I leave anything out of that last act of desperation to get the last word in on this subject?

[Yoop]

The NBA has been FAR more social-justice oriented than the NFL and their TV deal jumped 60% from their previous deal. Their top salaries doubled over a 5-year span. The last NFL deal was several years ago and also jumped 60% over the previous deal. If the NFL even gets a very watered don increase due to current economic realities, it would still probably include a jump of 40-50% over the previous deal. The TV money will flood the cap, for sure. The question is more along the lines of how soon it will come, how big the COVID revenue losses are, and how the players and teams negotiate those losses' application to the CBA.

Anyway, we have Rodgers right now, economic and cap uncertainty in the short term, and a windfall of SOME amount coming. I'm kicking the can to 2022/3 as much as I can. It's the most reasonable course of action.

The NBA's audience is vastly different from the NFL's. Can't compare the two. Anyway, I'm not saying the tv revenue will go down. But a return to the viewership numbers of 2016-2018 will keep down the increase. I think it was 2017 where CBS had to pay advertisers back $220 million or something due to less viewers than they promised, it was discussed on this forum (well, packersnews.net) a fair amount at the time.

really, just because it was discussed on this forum does not mean it actually happened, and I've never heard that the NFL has to promise a certain amount of viewers prior to inking any broadcast contract, and as with everything else viewership numbers vary year to year, and fans wont be so quick to listen or think players kneeling are dis respecting our vets because some twisted president said so.