bud fox wrote: ↑10 Nov 2021 05:47
go pak go wrote: ↑10 Nov 2021 05:42
I mean everyone here says, "sure! if he signs for minimum contract!"
So that's likely close where the Packers are at. We have all said if this turns into a monetary bidding war....we won't win.
And that shouldn't be a knock on the front office. That's the reality of our situation.
If the money is there spend it. No point bargaining just lay the cap out and say this is much we are allowed to spend take it all or not
Who says we haven't done that?
Our issue is we don't have much money to spend. I think we have roughly $4 million in cap but you need to keep some in the coffers for a couple reasons:
1. Further injury requiring more player signings - we are seeing this a lot this year. The more players you have go on IR, the more players you need to have on your team which brings down the cap. A guy like Jaylon Smith costs nothing. You cut him and replace him. The net cost is about the same. But a guy like Kylin Hill adds total cost because his IR cap hit is the same and now we have to pay Patrick Taylor more to be on the 53.
2. Contract incentives. You have to keep cap space available to pay for any potential incentive pay like making Pro Bowl, hitting stat benchmarks, etc. Cap space on contracts with incentives is calculated based on "likelihood of achievement" Likelihood of achievement is generally, "did they do it last year?" So for instance, if a player has a Pro Bowl incentive and made the 2020 Pro Bowl, that is already figured in the cap. But if a player has a Pro Bowl incentive and didn't make the Pro Bowl last year, that is likely not figured in the cap. This is why we always see a cap adjustment at the end of the seasons. Sometimes it goes up and sometimes it goes down, but you need to reserve for it.
We are already below what teams "like to be during the season". Generally teams like to have $5 million plus around. We are I think I heard at around $4 million to the good.
The prorated minimum for OJB I heard would be roughly $557k which is about a $1 million deal. My guess is the Packers could double that offer at the most. But that is a pretty easy number to beat if another team really wants to beat it.
So again it will really depend on what OBJ wants.
Advantages of GB
1. Best chance at a ring of all the potential suitors
2. Can showcase skills on the largest stage from a talented QB
3. Likelihood of playing a higher quantity of meaningful games knowing December will be important and likely play more January and February games.
Disadvantages of GB
1. Will not maximize income here. Even if it's $500k to $1MM less which, in an NFL contracts is not a big deal, in real life that is still a LOT of money. Especially when it is earned for only a 2 month span (all game checks income in the postseason is set by the NFL and is not tied to contract)
2. A LOT of mouths to feed on offense. This offense is about RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. This offense also feeds the ball to Adams a LOT. And then oh by the way you have a deep threat in MVS who can eat and a slot in Cobb. How will you keep everyone happy? The only way this works is if GB simply has the ball a lot and converts its 3rd downs. But if the offense continues to resemble what it has resembled in 2021, which is long time consuming drives and average points production, your weapons on offense won't eat. OBJ will assuredly earn more production in NE than he would in GB unless the Packers start turning into an explosive play team again (which they are not so far)
3. It's GB. Some people love it. A lot of people don't. Also, he will not be anywhere close to the guy here whereas he has the chance to be the guy at other places.
These are all things he needs to weigh out. I think GB provides the greatest potential of making big plays on a big stage, but it also provides the highest probability of being irrelevant. I would be surprised if he chooses us.
