Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 20 Dec 2024 17:27
So what your saying, is we need to play Stokes more?
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Packers Defense - 2024
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Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 20 Dec 2024 17:48
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 20 Dec 2024 17:50
If he didn’t have a bit raspier voice, don’t think I could tell him apart from LaFleur. Even down to answering every question with a “Yeah, no”BSA wrote: ↑20 Dec 2024 17:27here's Hafley's presser, I really enjoy his approach:
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1MnxnDdWDjeGO
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 21 Dec 2024 17:01
Obviously, in that game, against perhaps the best offense in the league, it wasn't enough. But in general, we are doing fine. And we have reason to believe we will also improve.RingoCStarrQB wrote: ↑06 Dec 2024 18:34D isn't really OK yet because 34 points was too much for our offense to overcome in the hostile Ford Field environment.Scott4Pack wrote: ↑06 Dec 2024 18:06For what it's worth, I think we had as many problems last night because of injuries limiting us as anything. If we can manage to get Jaire, Evan, and others back, I think we are going to be fine.
Even so, seems like St. Brown was pretty quiet most of the night. Even LaPorta could've done more damage. But that offense is loaded. And we still did pretty well overall. Still need to take another step forward before the playoffs. But our D is okay.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 21 Dec 2024 17:04
That might've been a good decision (to give greater emphasis to stopping the run). We have the kind of D that can actually generate turnovers, even against good teams.BF004 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2024 08:30We held the lions to 3.3 yards per rush.
If you don’t think that is directly correlated to Lions have success throwing over the middle….
Lions are a very very damned good offense, it was a pick your poison decision. Stop the run, stop the throws, or be average on both. Clear we wanted to stop the run.
Right decision? Who knows, in hindsight maybe not. Against a normal team who punts and kicks field goals and doesn’t get lucky (as in not sustainable) on 4th downs, we probably hold this team to like 15-20 points.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 12:33
Mostly things we already know, but here's Bill Barnwell's take on the Packers from his piece on the possible "achilles heel" for each of 7 teams declared "Super Bowl contenders"
Green Bay Packers (10-4)
Chance to win the Super Bowl, via ESPN's FPI: 9.4%
Most likely seed: No. 6
Achilles' heel: Defending the quick game
Let's finish up with the Packers, who play the Saints on "Monday Night Football" to wrap up this week's action. We've seen the Packers lose unexpectedly late in the season before -- they lost on Monday night last December to a Tommy DeVito-led Giants team -- but barring an unexpected upset by New Orleans rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, they should advance to 11-4 and officially clinch their playoff spot in the NFC.
Coordinator Jeff Hafley's defense generally has been great in his first season coordinating for Green Bay, with free agent pickup Xavier McKinney leading the way. McKinney's seven interceptions has been the big story, but the role he has played as a center fielder is about more than takeaways. The Packers lead the league with a 28.0 QBR allowed on throws traveling 20 or more yards downfield, 12 points ahead of any other team. They have allowed a whopping 1.4 QBR on throws 30 or more yards downfield, as opposing offenses have gone 0-for-11 with three interceptions.
Where they've struggled is on throws that get the ball out fast. When the Packers face quick game, throws that NFL Next Gen Stats cites as coming out in under 2.5 seconds, the results have been painful. They rank ninth in QBR on throws of more than 2.5 seconds. They're 26th in QBR on throws where the ball comes out in 2.5 seconds or less. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 80% of their throws when they get the ball out this quickly, a figure topped by only the Giants.
As in Pittsburgh's case, Green Bay's struggles against quick game might be a reflection of where it has its most talented players. With all due respect to Joey Porter Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers thrive through their edge rush rotation. The Packers aren't quite as deep or impressive there, but even after trading away Preston Smith at the deadline, they have plenty of options to get after the quarterback.
It's harder to create pressure when the ball is coming out fast, of course, and the Packers appear to be struggling to play defense without pressure. When their pass rush gets home, they allow a league-best 1.5 yards per dropback. Without pressure, that falls to 7.9 yards per dropback, which ranks 23rd. They are also 23rd in QBR allowed without pressure, which is boosted strictly by their 10 interceptions. Nobody else below them in the rankings has generated more than four picks in pressure-free situations.
Like for Baltimore, the issue has been more acute in Green Bay's losses. In four defeats, opposing passers have gone 36-of-43 for 274 yards with three touchdowns and a pick on quick game, producing a completion percentage of nearly 84%. Jalen Hurts was 11-of-12 for 95 yards in the opener, while Jared Goff was 14-of-18 for 83 yards in those same spots when the Lions beat the Packers on Thursday night earlier this month.
And as with the Ravens, perhaps there are personnel issues to blame. Green Bay has been without top cornerback Jaire Alexander for seven games and most of an eighth, which has meant more Eric Stokes than Packers fans might have expected heading into the season. The 2021 first-round pick has allowed a 100.5 passer rating in coverage. Quay Walker, another former first-round pick, was allowing a passer rating approaching 100 before he suffered an ankle injury. Many fans want Edgerrin Cooper to take over as a full-time starter, and the linebacker won Defensive Player of the Week for his performance in last week's win over the Seahawks.
Again, perhaps there's a choice being made here about what to take away. Just 8.2% of those quick passes are tight-window throws, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. The Packers are playing zone on these throws nearly 77% of the time, which is the sixth-highest rate. Hafley might not yet be able to trust his corners in man all that often, and that is going to be a process as the Packers turn over their cornerback spots in the years to come. Taking away the deep threats and allowing completions underneath is an understandable choice, but great defenses obviously prefer to do both.
Team to avoid: Detroit Lions. Coordinator Ben Johnson's offense averages a hair under 7.0 yards per dropback on quick game, which is the fifth-best rate in the league and the best rate produced by any NFC playoff team. (The 49ers, averaging 7.8 yards per dropback on these plays, rank second in the NFL behind the Ravens.)
Goff has gone a combined 19-of-24 for 119 yards with two touchdowns and a pick in those spots across two games against the Packers. The Lions already have swept the Packers. Could Detroit beat Green Bay a third time if they matched up again in the playoffs?
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 13:40
.
It drives the fans nuts and gives Barnwell something to hang his hat on...but if teams are afraid of 5-7 step drops- that's a huge win for the defense
The probability of a penalty-killing drive is much higher when teams have to use 12 plays just to get in FG range.
Over and over we hear DCs talking about taking away explosive plays - and that's what Hafley's defense is designed to do and what X-man brings to the table. Hafley noted it in one of this recent pressers, saying teams aren't even trying to hit the deep balls. So its kinda crazy to say that is working really well, but the Packers defense Achilles heel is giving up the short &%$@. WTF ? Try harder Bill, this is a pretty flimsy "Achilles heel" - what it is really showing is a defense that makes you earn every 1st down.
Hafley also preaches having vision to the ball and rallying to the ball - both of which are part & parcel of keeping everything in front of you.
Also noted: Barnwell is a known Packer-ripper and was the one who wrote the offseason article talking about how GB overpaid for Josh Jacobs and that Jacobs was a declining asset. So $%@# Bill Barnwell and the horse he rode in on
It drives the fans nuts and gives Barnwell something to hang his hat on...but if teams are afraid of 5-7 step drops- that's a huge win for the defense
The probability of a penalty-killing drive is much higher when teams have to use 12 plays just to get in FG range.
Over and over we hear DCs talking about taking away explosive plays - and that's what Hafley's defense is designed to do and what X-man brings to the table. Hafley noted it in one of this recent pressers, saying teams aren't even trying to hit the deep balls. So its kinda crazy to say that is working really well, but the Packers defense Achilles heel is giving up the short &%$@. WTF ? Try harder Bill, this is a pretty flimsy "Achilles heel" - what it is really showing is a defense that makes you earn every 1st down.
Hafley also preaches having vision to the ball and rallying to the ball - both of which are part & parcel of keeping everything in front of you.
Also noted: Barnwell is a known Packer-ripper and was the one who wrote the offseason article talking about how GB overpaid for Josh Jacobs and that Jacobs was a declining asset. So $%@# Bill Barnwell and the horse he rode in on
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 13:51
I will say that while Barnwell got a couple details wrong that I would generally expect from a national (non packers-specific reporter) he did a nice job of explaining that Jaire's injury (and Quay's) are likely impacting the way that the defense can be called and therefore could be contributing a great deal to the data trends he's seeing.
And he is right that we're making choices and that the choice we have made is likely the better one--but that to take the next step as a defense we need to be better in the short (mostly the middle of the field) game. It's just too easy to convert, say, a 3rd and medium if the opposition makes a play call that targets that weakness.
And he is right that we're making choices and that the choice we have made is likely the better one--but that to take the next step as a defense we need to be better in the short (mostly the middle of the field) game. It's just too easy to convert, say, a 3rd and medium if the opposition makes a play call that targets that weakness.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 13:57
Hey- The other guys get paid too !YoHoChecko wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 13:51It's just too easy to convert, say, a 3rd and medium if the opposition makes a play call that targets that weakness.
Hafley's defense is currently # 7 in the league in opponent 3rd down conversions/game and 3rd down conversion rate % - and that's against the number 2 hardest schedule in the league. So once again...Bill Barnwell can kiss my ample ass.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/o ... s-per-game
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/o ... ersion-pct
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 15:12
I guess my issue with you having an issue with Barnwell is that it's been a common topic in this thread and among the fanbase that our challenges in defending the middle of the field have been exploited against better opponents and play callers to move the ball on us; and that in order to win a Super Bowl, not just finish with a good record, we need to have a better option to combat that because teams like Detroit specifically have made us pay for it, regardless of what the numbers against the teams we beat have been.BSA wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 13:57Hey- The other guys get paid too !YoHoChecko wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 13:51It's just too easy to convert, say, a 3rd and medium if the opposition makes a play call that targets that weakness.
Hafley's defense is currently # 7 in the league in opponent 3rd down conversions/game and 3rd down conversion rate % - and that's against the number 2 hardest schedule in the league. So once again...Bill Barnwell can kiss my ample ass.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/o ... s-per-game
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/o ... ersion-pct
We have lost to three teams who will make the playoffs and who have a better record than us. Those teams are well-positioned to take advantage of this shortcoming, specifically the two in our division, and it is not ridiculous or even remotely far-fetched to say that without improvement, this could cost us big in a playoff game.
I don't see why we have to come down on Barnwell for pointing out what everyone can plainly see: our safeties are concerned with the deep part of the field and our healthy LBs and slot defenders have been struggling big time in coverage. He focuses more on the time before throwing. We have focused more on the area of the field. But it's a legitimate issue and saying it might be a liability for a Super Bowl run is more accurate than inaccurate. It feels like your bias against the writer based on previous opinions is getting in the way of your assessment of our reality.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 15:29
I don't care for Barnwell, but my bias has zero impact on the stats and reality I postedYoHoChecko wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 15:12It feels like your bias against the writer based on previous opinions is getting in the way of your assessment of our reality.
Our reality is that the Packers 2024 defense is ranked number 7 in the entire league...and yet Barnwell is calling that our Achilles heel.
JFC. Seems like he was really reaching on that one, especially since the Packers and Hafley are still in year 1 of the rollout.
Look at where the Packers were in those same categories last season ( 28th)
I'm OK with having our "biggest "weakness" still being a Top 7 performance in the entire NFL, others feel differently.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 15:34
He's calling ONE aspect of our defense our achilles heel. And given that we are a team that is 0-4 against teams with a better record than we have and 10-0 against teams with a worse record, I don't think the aggregate, full-season stats are enough to consider when determining what might cost us against the 7 or 8 best teams in the league.BSA wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 15:29I don't care for Barnwell, but my bias has zero impact on the stats and reality I postedYoHoChecko wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 15:12It feels like your bias against the writer based on previous opinions is getting in the way of your assessment of our reality.
Our reality is that the Packers 2024 defense is ranked number 7 in the entire league...and yet Barnwell is calling that our Achilles heel.
JFC. Seems like he was really reaching on that one, especially since the Packers and Hafley are still in year 1 of the rollout.
Look at where the Packers were in those same categories last season ( 28th)
I'm OK with having our "biggest "weakness" still being a Top 7 performance in the entire NFL, others feel differently.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 15:51
Well, if I had to pick a potential Achilles' heel for this team, I'd also have picked defense vs quick passes. The other possibility would have been Love's gunslinging backfiring as INTs.BSA wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 15:29I don't care for Barnwell, but my bias has zero impact on the stats and reality I postedYoHoChecko wrote: ↑23 Dec 2024 15:12It feels like your bias against the writer based on previous opinions is getting in the way of your assessment of our reality.
Our reality is that the Packers 2024 defense is ranked number 7 in the entire league...and yet Barnwell is calling that our Achilles heel.
JFC. Seems like he was really reaching on that one, especially since the Packers and Hafley are still in year 1 of the rollout.
Look at where the Packers were in those same categories last season ( 28th)
I'm OK with having our "biggest "weakness" still being a Top 7 performance in the entire NFL, others feel differently.
Yes, our D has been good overall this season, but if there's something we haven't seen them successfully defend is the quick passing game of especially Detroit. The under 2.5 sec to release of Goff pretty much negates the pass rush. If we play cover-2 zone vs it, the middle of the field tends to be open either shallow or deep. If we play man, it's susceptible to pick plays and screens. I guess the antidote would be to disguise coverages better, and to mix what kinda zone coverage to drop into, but that's no easy feat for a young D in year 1. I hope to see us experiment with that in the remaining games, and if Hafley can pull it off, hat off to him and his D!
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 23:27
Up to 6th in the NFL giving up just 19.1 points per game.
A full 2.3 ppg better than last year.
It is exciting, to me at least, to see good defensive play.
A full 2.3 ppg better than last year.
It is exciting, to me at least, to see good defensive play.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 23 Dec 2024 23:31
Love shutouts!!
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 24 Dec 2024 07:20
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 24 Dec 2024 10:23
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 24 Dec 2024 10:35
One aspect of the improvement of our D is that the front 4 are getting home better. They are getting good at putting pressure in a QBs face. That'll help the weaknesses of our defense any day of the week if it continues (and even improves).
I remember a Giants team years ago that couldn't cover didly on the back end. But their pass rush was so good that QBs hardly ever had time to throw the ball. It could be the same for us this year.
I remember a Giants team years ago that couldn't cover didly on the back end. But their pass rush was so good that QBs hardly ever had time to throw the ball. It could be the same for us this year.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 24 Dec 2024 10:42
It's a big test. Will be very interesting to see if 23 finally suits up. This is the matchup we need him for.
Re: Packers Defense - 2024
Posted: 24 Dec 2024 20:48