Packers Huddle

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 15:13

BF004 wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 15:06

These RBs only seem to get money on resigns, other than Leveon Bell, which was an effed up situation to a disastrous team.


Feel like I would be okay letting Jones dangle in FA for two weeks, but with a reasonable fair offer on the table.

Maybe 3 years 30-33 million tops.


But yes, do not give out 4/56 or anything dumb.

I still say I want a 2-year $25 million extension which results in a 3-year, $27 million total deal.

It gives him guarantees now. It lets him hit free agency again at 28; it keeps the cost under $10 million per year for us, and doesn't leave us stuck too long if he under-performs.

Admittedly, the 2021 cap crunch makes that very difficult because there isn't a lot of time or space to delay anything, so it may not be workable under the current structure.

But getting to announce it as a 12.5m/yr deal but actually acting as a $9m/yr deal suits me.

So basically Joe Mixon's contract...just half the years of commitment?

I think that would be really hard because we can't "smooth" out to reduce his cap hit for 2020 - 2021 as easy.

The advantage with a 4 year deal is we can back load the cap it a lot easier.

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 15:43

So basically Joe Mixon's contract...just half the years of commitment?

I think that would be really hard because we can't "smooth" out to reduce his cap hit for 2020 - 2021 as easy.

The advantage with a 4 year deal is we can back load the cap it a lot easier.

Yeah. Honestly I was recycling my idea from spring before we knew COVID would have cap impacts; it really doesn't make as much sense now. You're right.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 15:48

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 15:43

So basically Joe Mixon's contract...just half the years of commitment?

I think that would be really hard because we can't "smooth" out to reduce his cap hit for 2020 - 2021 as easy.

The advantage with a 4 year deal is we can back load the cap it a lot easier.

Yeah. Honestly I was recycling my idea from spring before we knew COVID would have cap impacts; it really doesn't make as much sense now. You're right.

I want to be realistic in his numbers. I don't want to be like...not a dime over $6 million! Because Aaron Jones deserves to make more money than Billy Turner or Tramon Williams last year.

However, I think we are in a good negotiating stance here too and I do believe smart running backs hopefully see that being greedy on contracts actually might be a bad business move because you could get cut in Year 3/Year 4 if you don't live up to your deal or the team just decides it's too much. (look at the Todd Gurley or Lane Taylor effect)

Like there honestly needs to be analysis if it is better to sign a 4 year deal at $36 Million where you likely won't get cut compared to a 4 Year $50 Million deal with $20 Million gauranteed within the first two years. Because you honestly only may end up getting $20 to $30 million (after a resign elsewhere) and don't get to get the full value of the contract plus the personal side of loving to play for a team, being with teammates etc.

I think Jones really likes it in GB. If we get a deal done, I have a feeling it will be a 4 year extension with a nice signing bonus this year and it being at that $40 Million mark. He gets money now. The Packers get to defer his cap hit to 2022 and beyond and Jones will likely get to be paid the entire length of his contract for a lot of money.

Am I $10 million too low? Probably. But if that is where he wants it....at some point you need to walk away too. From a statistical standpoint and health standpoint, he has one year of health and production. That needs to be considered here too.

If he performs again this year, like he probably will, NO WAY will AJones take less than 10M Per, and at least a 4 year deal. It is not in his best interest to sign a short contract, RB's have that short of a shelf life, they want security.

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:45

If he performs again this year, like he probably will, NO WAY will AJones take less than 10M Per, and at least a 4 year deal. It is not in his best interest to sign a short contract, RB's have that short of a shelf life, they want security.

Yup. And if he doesn't. If the RB by committee bites him. Or he misses 6 - 8 games...these are all the risks and cost benefits of signing now or waiting.

And we also know that Kamara and Cook will likely hit the free market in the offseason too.

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:53

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:45

If he performs again this year, like he probably will, NO WAY will AJones take less than 10M Per, and at least a 4 year deal. It is not in his best interest to sign a short contract, RB's have that short of a shelf life, they want security.

Yup. And if he doesn't. If the RB by committee bites him. Or he misses 6 - 8 games...these are all the risks and cost benefits of signing now or waiting.

And we also know that Kamara and Cook will likely hit the free market in the offseason too.

Agreed, and another good rookie class coming out again in 2021. Cook and Kamara could both get new deals soon though.

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:56

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:53

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:45

If he performs again this year, like he probably will, NO WAY will AJones take less than 10M Per, and at least a 4 year deal. It is not in his best interest to sign a short contract, RB's have that short of a shelf life, they want security.

Yup. And if he doesn't. If the RB by committee bites him. Or he misses 6 - 8 games...these are all the risks and cost benefits of signing now or waiting.

And we also know that Kamara and Cook will likely hit the free market in the offseason too.

Agreed, and another good rookie class coming out again in 2021. Cook and Kamara could both get new deals soon though.

I don't see how MN can possibly keep Cook now based on the decisions they have made this past week.

Don’t pay RBs.

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 19:55

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:56

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:53

Yup. And if he doesn't. If the RB by committee bites him. Or he misses 6 - 8 games...these are all the risks and cost benefits of signing now or waiting.

And we also know that Kamara and Cook will likely hit the free market in the offseason too.

Agreed, and another good rookie class coming out again in 2021. Cook and Kamara could both get new deals soon though.

I don't see how MN can possibly keep Cook now based on the decisions they have made this past week.

MN is in no different cap situation than the Packers.

Raptorman wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:15

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 19:55

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:56

Agreed, and another good rookie class coming out again in 2021. Cook and Kamara could both get new deals soon though.

I don't see how MN can possibly keep Cook now based on the decisions they have made this past week.

MN is in no different cap situation than the Packers.

He’s right.

Raptorman wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:15

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 19:55

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:56

Agreed, and another good rookie class coming out again in 2021. Cook and Kamara could both get new deals soon though.

I don't see how MN can possibly keep Cook now based on the decisions they have made this past week.

MN is in no different cap situation than the Packers.

Player contract yes. We are virtually the same.

What differentiates the two is MN has a little over $10MM more in Dead Cap and that basically is your difference between GB and MN. GB has probably around a $10MM or so edge on MN going into 2020.

Raptorman wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:15

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 19:55

Packfntk wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 16:56

Agreed, and another good rookie class coming out again in 2021. Cook and Kamara could both get new deals soon though.

I don't see how MN can possibly keep Cook now based on the decisions they have made this past week.

MN is in no different cap situation than the Packers.

Except that MN is over the cap this year and GB still has $14 million to play with...

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 23:07

Raptorman wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:15

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 19:55

I don't see how MN can possibly keep Cook now based on the decisions they have made this past week.

MN is in no different cap situation than the Packers.

Except that MN is over the cap this year and GB still has $14 million to play with...

And based on a cap of $175 next year Green Bay and Minnesota will be $14 and $15 million over. That includes Reiff's current contract which may or may not change next year.

Raptorman wrote: ↑

02 Sep 2020 01:37

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 23:07

Raptorman wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:15

MN is in no different cap situation than the Packers.

Except that MN is over the cap this year and GB still has $14 million to play with...

And based on a cap of $175 next year Green Bay and Minnesota will be $14 and $15 million over. That includes Reiff's current contract which may or may not change next year.

Incorrect. At this current time Green Bay is right at the $175 million 2021 cap with the 2020 rollover.

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:09

Don’t pay RBs.

times change, if your going to become a run first team then you should keep the good ones, Jones is realistically a low mileage RB, that for 2 years has shown to have special talent, in that sense you'd have to consider his production capability's, Jones has the potential to supply a 1/3 of our offensive production and points.

when MLF says we'll run by commitee, he's echoing comments every coach makes, McCarthy said the same stuff, they all do, unless one RB over shadows the rest, McCarthy wouldn't budge from his position even though it was obvious two years ago that Jones was vastly superior as a runner over Williams, leaving a ton of production riding pine, probably another reason McCarthy was fired, I hope MLF gives the major reps to our best RB.

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:09

Don’t pay RBs.

I've been on team "don't pay RBs" for like 20 years, but it's also difficult for me to see our most explosive player on offense leave with 2-3 years left in Rodgers' GB career, so I'm much more neutral on this one. All of our RBs are free agents after this year except AJ DIllon (J. Williams and Ervin, as well). It would be a tough sell for me to put together a backfield featuring Dillon and a rookie who's supposed to add a more explosive element (both to rushing and to the passing game), when passing downs are difficult roles for rookies to earn, if that makes sense.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

02 Sep 2020 08:20

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:09

Don’t pay RBs.

I've been on team "don't pay RBs" for like 20 years, but it's also difficult for me to see our most explosive player on offense leave with 2-3 years left in Rodgers' GB career, so I'm much more neutral on this one. All of our RBs are free agents after this year except AJ DIllon (J. Williams and Ervin, as well). It would be a tough sell for me to put together a backfield featuring Dillon and a rookie who's supposed to add a more explosive element (both to rushing and to the passing game), when passing downs are difficult roles for rookies to earn, if that makes sense.

This is where I stand, too. What about 3 for $30M? Could we live with that? Maybe cap hits of 6-11-13 in the new years? Over the Gordon deal but under the Mixon deal?

NCF wrote: ↑

02 Sep 2020 08:30

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

02 Sep 2020 08:20

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:09

Don’t pay RBs.

I've been on team "don't pay RBs" for like 20 years, but it's also difficult for me to see our most explosive player on offense leave with 2-3 years left in Rodgers' GB career, so I'm much more neutral on this one. All of our RBs are free agents after this year except AJ DIllon (J. Williams and Ervin, as well). It would be a tough sell for me to put together a backfield featuring Dillon and a rookie who's supposed to add a more explosive element (both to rushing and to the passing game), when passing downs are difficult roles for rookies to earn, if that makes sense.

This is where I stand, too. What about 3 for $30M? Could we live with that? Maybe cap hits of 6-11-13 in the new years? Over the Gordon deal but under the Mixon deal?

Even if he LOVES Green Bay, why would he even consider signing such a low deal?

Gunzaan wrote: ↑

02 Sep 2020 08:35

Even if he LOVES Green Bay, why would he even consider signing such a low deal?

Why did Melvin Gordon? Where does Aaron Jones fit in the pecking order? Aaron Jones gets no love from the national media, so doesn't have that in his pocket. Why are we so sure he can demand what Mixon got as a starting point? I wouldn't, but I think, in general, many pundits would make Mixon over Jones, yes?

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

02 Sep 2020 08:20

lupedafiasco wrote: ↑

01 Sep 2020 20:09

Don’t pay RBs.

I've been on team "don't pay RBs" for like 20 years, but it's also difficult for me to see our most explosive player on offense leave with 2-3 years left in Rodgers' GB career, so I'm much more neutral on this one. All of our RBs are free agents after this year except AJ DIllon (J. Williams and Ervin, as well). It would be a tough sell for me to put together a backfield featuring Dillon and a rookie who's supposed to add a more explosive element (both to rushing and to the passing game), when passing downs are difficult roles for rookies to earn, if that makes sense.

who knows, not all successful college RB's are as good in the NFL, the speed and power of defensive players at this level is far superior to college, just to many Clarks on DL's in the nfl, just more studs.

to me it's not so much that RB is a one term contract because the good ones want to much, it's the ability to replace the production they provide, and I'am leary of Dillon being able to do that, and the running by commitee never has impressed me much, so I tend to feel that you get as much as possible for the length of the rookie contract, rinse and repeat, however I don't consider Jones to be a average RB, and McCarthy didn't bell cow Jones, so this situation isn't exactly NORMAL.

I'd love to sign Jones for 3 years, with MLF's run first schemes I think we could get a couple huge seasons from Jones, could even be the catalist for another SB run, it kills me to see all the production walk out the door.