Carlson

[Pckfn23]

every year a half doz GM's try, and according the the numbers it seems 2/3rds of those GM dump those brought in and try again, then again, and often that goes on for years.

Where are these numbers coming from? Every year 6 of the 32 teams try to switch kickers because their kicker was not consistent, but 4 of those don't get better production with their new kicker?

[Crazylegs Starks]

I believe I said he is a 80% PLUS kicker, never needed a stat or even looked for one, and I don't need any stats to know Crosby has been worth hanging onto, you and others ranting to get rid of him would complain if hung with bran new hemp for christ sakes, we could go a decade or more and never improve on Crosby.

Yoop, you really should look at the stats, he was an 80%+ kicker on only 9 out of 16 his seasons. That's not very good! Go compare him to Robbie Gould in Chicago; it's not even close.

Crosby's career stats:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... osMa20.htm

Robbie Gould:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... drob01.htm

his two years of near only 70% is what drags his % down

Sure, either that or his 7 seasons of kicking under 80% A good kicker would average closer to 85%.

[Yoop]

Yoop, you really should look at the stats, he was an 80%+ kicker on only 9 out of 16 his seasons. That's not very good! Go compare him to Robbie Gould in Chicago; it's not even close.

Crosby's career stats:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... osMa20.htm

Robbie Gould:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... drob01.htm

his two years of near only 70% is what drags his % down

Sure, either that or his 7 seasons of kicking under 80% A good kicker would average closer to 85%.

heck if it weren't for declining leg strength Guty would have kept Crosby another year at least, a good kicker is a guy that can fix the shanks when they happen, and makes clutch kicks, and Crosby has been pretty good at that, very few seasons that he's been considered terrible, even so I hope Carlson does stroke 85% or 90 % I'am fine obviously with improvement at any position, but I can count on one hand the times I even considered that Crosby might actually miss, thats why I think people that are all up and concerned over a kicker are over board.

I'am trying to remember when Crosby actually missed a kick that cost us a game, I'am sure there is one, just can't remember.

[Madcity_matt]

For a cold weather kicker Crosby's numbers were overall pretty solid.

[Pckfn23]

For a cold weather kicker Crosby's numbers were overall pretty solid.

That's actually not true. Did an extended look into it a few years ago.

[Labrev]

For a cold weather kicker Crosby's numbers were overall pretty solid.

That's actually not true. Did an extended look into it a few years ago.

I noticed on the chart you posted a few pages back that Blair Walsh(!) had a higher career make percentage than Crosby. Kinda yikes tbh.

[Ghost_Lombardi]

Crosby was below average.

There were parts of his career where he should have been released, but one of the major problems of the McCarthy era was loyalty to under performing players and staff.

Anders remains incredibly inconsistent. I do hope we bring in another K.

[lupedafiasco]

Crosby needed to go because his leg was worn down and just couldn’t kick off anymore.

This Crosby disrespect is crazy though. Outside of really just having one atrocious season I think Crosby was pretty good. It’s tough to be a cold weather kicker. On top of that the amount of clutch kicks he made deserves to have respect put on his name.

[YoHoChecko]

I find this thread a really fascinating insight into how deeply people view the world only through the narrow scope of their direct and recent experiences.

You can't talk about Carlson without it being about Crosby. As if there are only two kickers that ever have lived: the kicker we've had and the kicker we have.

[Drj820]

Most of the time Crosby made the kicks we needed him to make.

He just was overpaid at this point in his career.

I wouldn’t mind him being our kicker at all for the right price.

But over 4m per year is just nutty

[Pckfn23]

4th Quarter or OT, -3 to 0 in scoring margin: https://stathead.com/tiny/V1Fhx

Crosby still WAY down that list at 80.4%.

Crosby got it together in 3 of his 4 final seasons, but he is not the stick we should be measuring against.

Pretty much every NFL kicker is going to make most of their kicks. Crosby without a doubt has some memorable clutch kicks, especially later in his career, but here are some notable bummers: https://stathead.com/tiny/8TD97

[Captain_Ben]

Most of the time Crosby made the kicks we needed him to make.

He just was overpaid at this point in his career.

I wouldn’t mind him being our kicker at all for the right price.

But over 4m per year is just nutty

Exactly. I'm basing this purely off of memory but it seems like he was pretty consistent at making the kicks when the pressure was immense. Seems like the ones he missed, most of the time, felt routine- at least in the moments when he was attempting them. But the issue would rear its ugly head later in the game when it becomes "dammit Mason if only you would've made that 39 yarder in the 2nd quarter when we had a 10 pt. lead, that miss ended up being the difference."

But I could be wrong tbh.

[Pckfn23]

Let's point this out. Carlson kicked 71.82% at Auburn. In 2022 he was 20 for 22, BY FAR his best season. In his 4 other seasons he never went higher than 72%. At this point in Training Camp I don't believe he is much higher than his college average... While 80% for an NFL kicker is bad, what we are seeing at this time is atrocious. I am not yet advocating for a change, but if we get to this time next month and little has changed, we need to cut bait.

[Pckfn23]

This isn't exact because I can't get it to the player, but this is every FG from 2007 to 2022 with a game time temp at 40 or below:

image.png (37.94 KiB) Viewed 632 times

[CWIMM]

Don't forget that Crosby was kicking in the Green Bay climate in November-January. This would negatively impact the stats of most any kicker.

I have heard the excuse that Crosby kicking in Lambeau led to him having worse stats than other kickers. You need to realize that since 2007 all opposing kickers combined (82.8%, 38.48 yards) have made a higher percentage of field goals at Green Bay from a larger average distance than Crosby (81.8%, 37.87 yards) despite not being used to kick at the stadium.

That's just another indicator he wasn't all that good in the first place.

I am all for giving Carlson until the end of preseason/TC.

The Packers should definitely allow Carlson to start the season as their kicker. If he struggles for an extended period of time in the regular season it's time to move on.

take 21 and 2012 out and crosby's average is respectable, your using his 2 worst seasons to paint him, same why you do with every player you snub.

this is why most people don't base or form there opinions on STATS they only tell half the story.

If you take out Crosby's two worst seasons it would only be fair to eliminate his two best as well to evaluate him. That would result in him having made 82.2% of his field goals in those remaining years. That's still significantly below average.

For a cold weather kicker Crosby's numbers were overall pretty solid.

If there's any truth to that Crosby should be among the better kickers while playing on the road, correct? Well, that's not the case either. He's ranked 49th out of 61 kickers in field goal percentage among kickers with at least 50 attempts on the road since 2007.

This Crosby disrespect is crazy though. Outside of really just having one atrocious season I think Crosby was pretty good. It’s tough to be a cold weather kicker. On top of that the amount of clutch kicks he made deserves to have respect put on his name.

Football Outsiders did a research on clutch kicks from 1985 to 2019. Among kickers with at least 12 attempts he ranked 35th in field goal percentage among 60 kickers.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra ... -1985-2019

It doesn't matter how you twist and turn it, all numbers suggest that Crosby was a below average kicker for his career in Green Bay. But for some reason Packers fans don't apply the same standard to him as with every other player that has lined up for the team.

[TheSkeptic]

A fan would have to be blind to see that Crosby can't kick off any more. The plan is to get the kickoff a few yards into the endzone so the other team starts at the 25. If a kicker can't do that before December, then it is a problem. A big problem. Unless maybe the punter can kick off which is unusual. Keeping Crosby gives the other team more than a 10 yard per kickoff advantage and if the other them has a good kickoff returner, it could easily cost 7 points.

Presumably if Crosby can't get the ball past the 10 yard line on a kickoff, he can't make a 50+ yard FG either.

Now, concerning Carlson. We have 2 more pre-season games before a decision has to be made. In theory he could be replaced after the first or second regular season game also. Perhaps it would be better to do that from an accountability standpoint - to prevent a locker room problem, but it is impossible for us to know what his teammates think.

Of course there is another alternative, don't try a medium range field goal on 4th and 5, go for the first down. Don't try to kick extra points, go for 2. The only time you usually can't go for the 7 is at the end of the half or end of the game. The only time you should never go for 2 is at the end of the game with the score tied. According to Boyd's bets the conversion rate on a 2 point attempt is 48.2%. Which means statistically every team should go for a 2 point attempt every time, except for that rare end of game attempt with the score tied.

There are other reasons why the Packers should usually go for 2 points. Their names are AJ Dillon and Deguara. Now that Davis is gone for the season, there is room to keep that fullback also.

[Labrev]

The Packers should definitely allow Carlson to start the season as their kicker. If he struggles for an extended period of time in the regular season it's time to move on.

It is much too late to move on if he struggles for an extended period in the regular season.

[YoHoChecko]

The way I am reading things--reports, tea leaves, etc.--Carlson is our kicker this year and we're taking the lumps of developing a talented but flawed rookie kicker.

So discuss it all you want, of course, but I think we should realistically take the "move on from him" or "cut bait" off the table from the options. Time to start talking coping mechanisms.

Much like me accepting that Bakhtiari will not be traded and will be on the roster now. We passed a point. We have what we have.

The Packers are having a high-energy developmental year with an eye toward the future. The Packers see Carlson in that future. And they'll give him every chance to be there.

[Pckfn23]

Much like me accepting that Bakhtiari will not be traded and will be on the roster now. We passed a point. We have what we have.

What makes you say we are committed to Carlson regardless? I haven't seen anything that says he is without a doubt our kicker this year.

The one big difference compared to other positions is that we can sign a kicker on a Saturday and he could kick on Sunday. There isn't really a playbook to learn.

[YoHoChecko]

What makes you say we are committed to Carlson regardless? I haven't seen anything that says he is without a doubt our kicker this year.

The one big difference compared to other positions is that we can sign a kicker on a Saturday and he could kick on Sunday. There isn't really a playbook to learn.

This is the first camp in like 3-4 years where we haven't had two kickers and we cut his competition like a week after rookie minicamp.

They have not brought in kickers for tryouts or workouts throughout camp, that I have heard at all.

They are actively treating the kicker position differently than they have in the past, when they had more options and more open efforts to create competition or take weight off of Crosby's practice requirements or something.


The question should be framed the opposite way: given how the Packers have operated at the K position under MLF in the offseasons, what evidence do you have that they are NOT committed to Carlson?

Further, given the percentage of draft picks that have made the 53-man roster under Gutey, even when the back-end 7th round guys are often outshined in camp by UDFAs, what about this year indicates that they are not committed to a 6th round draft pick?


Y'all are coming at this from the perspective of needing to fix a personnel problem and they are coming at this from the perspective of needing to fix a person's kicking.