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Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 15 Mar 2021 17:31
by Yoop
go pak go wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:03
NCF wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 16:26
So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?
I don't think the deal is egregiously low though it is definitely lower than I expected.
Dalvin Cook signed a 5 year deal worth $63 million so basically 5 years at $12 million.
Aaron Jones signed a 4 year deal worth $48 million so basically 4 years at $12 million.
The difference is guaranteed money. Dalvin not only got a $15 million signing bonus but also $28 million guaranteed. We don't know Jones's structure but it sounds like $13 million is guaranteed and I bet because of cap reasons, basically all of that is sign bonus. It will be interesting to see what his base salary is in Year 1 and Year 2.
Now I actually think Kamara, Cook and McCaffrey deserve higher deals than Jones because I think the system really helps Jones and we have shown numerous times we can win without either Jones or Adams, but I also think Jones left a significant chunk on the table because he wants to stay a Packer.
who knows, it was rumored at JS online that as many as 3 possibly 4 teams where interested in Jones, everything about staying with GB had to be attractive to Jones, whats a couple mil annual less to stay in a fit that will max out your potential, only makes sense to me.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 15 Mar 2021 17:38
by YoHoChecko
I mean, it's not so wild to think that a guy would just be like "negotiate the best deal you can but I like it here and don't want to move."
That's a perfectly normal human response to things. Extra zeros don't always change human nature.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 15 Mar 2021 17:52
by Yoop
salmar80 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:17
NCF wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 16:26
So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?
I think it's a market value deal (or very close to one) dressed as a hometown discount.
I personally think that the number cases when players have actually taken significantly discounted deals is very, very low. "Hometown discount" is usually agent speak for "market value turned up to be lesser than expected
. Let's dress it up as a hometown discount to make the player more popular and not look like we F'd up as agents."
As fans, it's sweet and heart warming to think "awww, he REALLY likes us and my team and hometown and, by extension, me!"
, instead of "he didn't get the cash he wanted elsewhere, so it made business sense to return"
.
I mean, no player EVER comes out and says "damn, I expected way more, don't really care about where or whom I play for since I'll likely to be moving again in a few years and it's just a work place, and I only do this for the money", even if all of that were true in a lotta cases...
In Jones' case, had there been any serious bidding war for his services, there's no way in heck he'd be back with us. But if the deals offered by other teams and the Packers were extremely close, he may have chosen GB due to proven scheme fit and other hometown factors.
NFL free agency negotiating period may start officially today, and the official free agency may begin on Wednesday, but those are just official dates. The market isn't set today nor Wednesday, it has been set during a full season and off-season of behind-the-scenes tampering. That's how so many deals can be announced today. It's not like the agents and front offices were just tanning on a beach all off-season until this morning.
The tag serves as the minimum guaranteed when negotiating an early extension, and also as leverage for the team. But it ceased to have meaning after the tag deadline passed last Tuesday.
haaaaaa, second best rookie contract performance of any RB not named Jimmy Brown, I bet if Jones hit the market he'd have 3 to 4 teams throwing money his way, you can be sure we got a home town discount, your right, teams study film of up coming FA all winter they formulate a list of potential prospects, lis before we are lucky to have worked out a deal with Jones prior to him testing the market cause his price could have climbed 2 or 3 mil.
it's always, and this is a absolute Sal and I know how you hate it when I say things like this, but, production looses the purse strings, and no one has to look very hard to see that Jones delivers lots of it, and hardly broke a sweat getting it done, he's got another 3 or 4 years of 1500 yrd seasons barring a unforseen injury, that is so evident to me and should be to you and everyone else here, actually increase the passes his way and his production could jump to 2 K, as you said GM's study this stuff all winter, just like Guty they see the future potential of Jones and where ready to pay and get it.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 15 Mar 2021 17:54
by Yoop
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:38
I mean, it's not so wild to think that a guy would just be like "negotiate the best deal you can but I like it here and don't want to move."
That's a perfectly normal human response to things. Extra zeros don't always change human nature.
exactly my point
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 15 Mar 2021 17:57
by Drj820
go pak go wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:03
NCF wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 16:26
So, question. Even though we didn't use it, we could have... did the lower than expected franchise tag value help drive this deal or is this truly market value for Aaron Jones with a little hometown discount?
I don't think the deal is egregiously low though it is definitely lower than I expected.
Dalvin Cook signed a 5 year deal worth $63 million so basically 5 years at $12 million.
Aaron Jones signed a 4 year deal worth $48 million so basically 4 years at $12 million.
The difference is guaranteed money. Dalvin not only got a $15 million signing bonus but also $28 million guaranteed. We don't know Jones's structure but it sounds like $13 million is guaranteed and I bet because of cap reasons, basically all of that is sign bonus. It will be interesting to see what his base salary is in Year 1 and Year 2.
Now I actually think Kamara, Cook and McCaffrey deserve higher deals than Jones because I think the system really helps Jones and we have shown numerous times we can win without either Jones or Adams, but I also think Jones left a significant chunk on the table because he wants to stay a Packer.
I think opposite really. I think the system and Payton totally helps out a guy like kamara who gets the ball through on the ground and in the air by design constantly. And Zimmer would hand it to cook 100x a game if he could.
Jones is one of the only backs i know with his talent to get pulled for entire series and spend his first two years with a coach that hated his guts (actions tell me that, maybe not his words)
Basically I just don’t think a pass happy system helped Jones anymore than the other guys got helped.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 12:00
by Scott4Pack
Waldo wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 12:40
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 12:30
2019:
Graham - 69 targets
Jones - 75 targets
Williams - 49 targets
Lewis - 21 targets
Tonyan - 15 targets
Vitale - 12 targets
Ervin - 5 targets
Carson - 4 targets
Sternberger - 4 targets
2020:
Tonyan - 67 targets
Jones - 71 targets
Williams - 31 targets
Lewis - 20 targets
Sternberger - 15 targets
Ervin - 15 targets
Dillon - 3 targets
Dafney - 2 targets
Degura - 2 targets
I was just curious to see if we were using our non-WRs in the passing game more. Here is what I found. 2019 saw 254 targets to non-WRs. 2020 saw 226 targets to non-WRs. 2018 saw 230 targets to non-WRs. Attempts were similar year over year.
We did have that few game stretch in 2019 where basically all our WRs were hurt that likely skews things quite a bit, as Jones got a ton of receiving action over that stretch.
Crazy though:
2019 Jimmy Graham - 38/60, 447 yd (7.5 ypt), 3 TD, 1 fmb, 23 1D, 63.3% catch rate
2020 Robert Tonyan - 52/59, 586 yd (9.9 ypt), 11 TD, 0 fmb, 33 1D, 88.1% catch rate
I mean holy cow what an upgrade
Yeah. And one of the best parts of that upgrade was that Jimmy went to da Bears!
:-)
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 12:03
by Scott4Pack
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:38
I mean, it's not so wild to think that a guy would just be like "negotiate the best deal you can but I like it here and don't want to move."
That's a perfectly normal human response to things. Extra zeros don't always change human nature.
Or, Aaron tells Guty, “Listen, just give me a reasonable offer. We all know what’s out there. So, respect me and I will stay.” Something like that.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 12:05
by go pak go
Scott4Pack wrote: ↑16 Mar 2021 12:03
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:38
I mean, it's not so wild to think that a guy would just be like "negotiate the best deal you can but I like it here and don't want to move."
That's a perfectly normal human response to things. Extra zeros don't always change human nature.
Or, Aaron tells Guty, “Listen, just give me a reasonable offer. We all know what’s out there. So, respect me and I will stay.” Something like that.
What confuses me is what changed from the offer that Jones turned down in December to now?
Did Jones just see that there wasn't much out there?
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 12:22
by Scott4Pack
go pak go wrote: ↑16 Mar 2021 12:05
Scott4Pack wrote: ↑16 Mar 2021 12:03
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021 17:38
I mean, it's not so wild to think that a guy would just be like "negotiate the best deal you can but I like it here and don't want to move."
That's a perfectly normal human response to things. Extra zeros don't always change human nature.
Or, Aaron tells Guty, “Listen, just give me a reasonable offer. We all know what’s out there. So, respect me and I will stay.” Something like that.
What confuses me is what changed from the offer that Jones turned down in December to now?
Did Jones just see that there wasn't much out there?
Sometimes, I think that players feel they need to threaten to leave, especially if Rosenhaus is their agent. It’s a little head game. Maybe AJ isn’t in for that kind of thing. But it never hurts to play hard to get.
:-)
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 12:32
by go pak go
Scott4Pack wrote: ↑16 Mar 2021 12:22
go pak go wrote: ↑16 Mar 2021 12:05
Scott4Pack wrote: ↑16 Mar 2021 12:03
Or, Aaron tells Guty, “Listen, just give me a reasonable offer. We all know what’s out there. So, respect me and I will stay.” Something like that.
What confuses me is what changed from the offer that Jones turned down in December to now?
Did Jones just see that there wasn't much out there?
Sometimes, I think that players feel they need to threaten to leave, especially if Rosenhaus is their agent. It’s a little head game. Maybe AJ isn’t in for that kind of thing. But it never hurts to play hard to get.
:-)
Again still confusing because Rosenhause wasn't his agent. He fired his old agent and actively hired Rosenhause.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 14:29
by wallyuwl
Seems like an overpay to me. He was the idel candidate to tag for one or even two years. Only risk there is pi$$in off the locker room.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 16 Mar 2021 14:47
by Yoop
did someone just pass gas? peeeeee u
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 11:46
by BF004
So that's why we didn't tag him two years in a row.
Aaron Jones gets about $20 million over two year.
We'll have cap hits of about 13.5 million over the next two years, 4.5 this year, 9 next year, assuming he won't be on roster in 2023 on that contract, about 6.5 million dead cap hit in 2023.
Looks more like a 2 year $20 million dollar deal with cap hits of 4.5, 9, 6.5 over 3 years.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 12:19
by NCF
BF004 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 11:46
We'll have cap hits of about 13.5 million over the next two years, 4.5 this year, 9 next year, assuming he won't be on roster in 2023 on that contract, about 6.5 million dead cap hit in 2023.
Flexibility to restructure in 2023, though, if they need/want to. Very nice deal, overall.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 12:38
by salmar80
NCF wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 12:19
BF004 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 11:46
We'll have cap hits of about 13.5 million over the next two years, 4.5 this year, 9 next year, assuming he won't be on roster in 2023 on that contract, about 6.5 million dead cap hit in 2023.
Flexibility to restructure in 2023, though, if they need/want to. Very nice deal, overall.
If Jones refuses to restructure in 2023, he'll get cut and be a free agent as a 28-year-old. If he does agree to restructure, that 2023 cap hit will only be manageable 12M and we can keep him for one more year. Year 4 is there only to have room for the restructures.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 14:44
by go pak go
salmar80 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 12:38
NCF wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 12:19
BF004 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 11:46
We'll have cap hits of about 13.5 million over the next two years, 4.5 this year, 9 next year, assuming he won't be on roster in 2023 on that contract, about 6.5 million dead cap hit in 2023.
Flexibility to restructure in 2023, though, if they need/want to. Very nice deal, overall.
If Jones refuses to restructure in 2023, he'll get cut and be a free agent as a 28-year-old. If he does agree to restructure, that 2023 cap hit will only be manageable 12M and we can keep him for one more year. Year 4 is there only to have room for the restructures.
We could restructure Jones and maybe we do to help Jordan Love out.
But I have a feeling looking at our cap deferment and cap hits in 22 (which some will inevitably get pushed into 23) and 23, that the Green Bay Packers roster will need get blown up 2023.
I think it is starting to look more and more clear that the Packers are looking at this as a 2 year remaining window and going for it. Which hey. If we get a ring out of this, I am completely fine taking our lumps in 2023 before rebuilding for the new era.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 16:29
by Yoop
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 14:44
salmar80 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 12:38
NCF wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 12:19
Flexibility to restructure in 2023, though, if they need/want to. Very nice deal, overall.
If Jones refuses to restructure in 2023, he'll get cut and be a free agent as a 28-year-old. If he does agree to restructure, that 2023 cap hit will only be manageable 12M and we can keep him for one more year. Year 4 is there only to have room for the restructures.
We could restructure Jones and maybe we do to help Jordan Love out.
But I have a feeling looking at our cap deferment and cap hits in 22 (which some will inevitably get pushed into 23) and 23, that the Green Bay Packers roster will need get blown up 2023.
I think it is starting to look more and more clear that the Packers are looking at this as a 2 year remaining window and going for it. Which hey. If we get a ring out of this, I am completely fine taking our lumps in 2023 before rebuilding for the new era.
sure, Guty would have to be loco to not maximize the last couple years of a QB like Rodgers, but that doesn't mean this team will fall off a cliff once Rodgers is gone unless Love is really bad, Guty just needs to hit this draft out of the park, what a crap couple of years with no combine to solidify scouted prospects, have to watch a lot of film on these players, burn the mid night lanterns, we need a half doz starters out of this class 3 years down the road so we don't have to tank for picks
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 16:36
by go pak go
Yoop wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 16:29
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 14:44
salmar80 wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 12:38
If Jones refuses to restructure in 2023, he'll get cut and be a free agent as a 28-year-old. If he does agree to restructure, that 2023 cap hit will only be manageable 12M and we can keep him for one more year. Year 4 is there only to have room for the restructures.
We could restructure Jones and maybe we do to help Jordan Love out.
But I have a feeling looking at our cap deferment and cap hits in 22 (which some will inevitably get pushed into 23) and 23, that the Green Bay Packers roster will need get blown up 2023.
I think it is starting to look more and more clear that the Packers are looking at this as a 2 year remaining window and going for it. Which hey. If we get a ring out of this, I am completely fine taking our lumps in 2023 before rebuilding for the new era.
sure, Guty would have to be loco to not maximize the last couple years of a QB like Rodgers, but that doesn't mean this team will fall off a cliff once Rodgers is gone unless Love is really bad, Guty just needs to hit this draft out of the park, what a crap couple of years with no combine to solidify scouted prospects, have to watch a lot of film on these players, burn the mid night lanterns, we need a half doz starters out of this class 3 years down the road so we don't have to tank for picks
I would be careful confusing blowing up our roster and being bad. Blowing up our roster just means it is likely a lot of Packers we love right now will not be a Packer after 2022.
I think it is looking more and more likely that Aaron Rodgers will be a Packer until 2022. A lot of that could be my preconceived notion but the signs are pointing that the Packers are going for it that way.
Having a poor record isn't a bad thing either as long as it is short term. I look at 2008 as a very important and successful season for the Green Bay Packers as it allowed us to see who our future players are and also let us pick in the top 10 where we got some great players from the draft.
But more importantly, it really does look like the Packers aren't afraid of going for it in 21 and 22 which is honestly somewhat uncharacteristic for the team.
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 19:45
by Drj820
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 16:36
Yoop wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 16:29
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Mar 2021 14:44
We could restructure Jones and maybe we do to help Jordan Love out.
But I have a feeling looking at our cap deferment and cap hits in 22 (which some will inevitably get pushed into 23) and 23, that the Green Bay Packers roster will need get blown up 2023.
I think it is starting to look more and more clear that the Packers are looking at this as a 2 year remaining window and going for it. Which hey. If we get a ring out of this, I am completely fine taking our lumps in 2023 before rebuilding for the new era.
sure, Guty would have to be loco to not maximize the last couple years of a QB like Rodgers, but that doesn't mean this team will fall off a cliff once Rodgers is gone unless Love is really bad, Guty just needs to hit this draft out of the park, what a crap couple of years with no combine to solidify scouted prospects, have to watch a lot of film on these players, burn the mid night lanterns, we need a half doz starters out of this class 3 years down the road so we don't have to tank for picks
I would be careful confusing blowing up our roster and being bad. Blowing up our roster just means it is likely a lot of Packers we love right now will not be a Packer after 2022.
I think it is looking more and more likely that Aaron Rodgers will be a Packer until 2022. A lot of that could be my preconceived notion but the signs are pointing that the Packers are going for it that way.
Having a poor record isn't a bad thing either as long as it is short term. I look at 2008 as a very important and successful season for the Green Bay Packers as it allowed us to see who our future players are and also let us pick in the top 10 where we got some great players from the draft.
But more importantly, it really does look like the Packers aren't afraid of going for it in 21 and 22 which is honestly somewhat uncharacteristic for the team.
Nothing we have done so far screams to me we are taking a massive swing to go for it. All we have done is keep a talented rb on a far friendlier deal than anyone thought he would take.
Besides that Rodgers cap hasn’t been pushed out to eat later, linsley wasn’t approached about signing a new deal, and we haven’t made any big signings (yet). Pushing Rodgers deal out would be the sign to me that we are going for it now, just to worry about the consequences later as we potentially cut Rodgers or trade him after2022 and deal with the dead cap punishment
Restructuring 12 is the one thing we can do to really go for it that would give us the cap to make moves in free agency. If he doesn’t want to do that, he is just forfeiting himself some more help in the next couple of years
Re: Aaron Jones Signs 4-year $48M Contract with Packers
Posted: 17 Mar 2021 19:58
by APB
Drj820 wrote: Restructuring 12 is the one thing we can do to really go for it that would give us the cap to make moves in free agency. If he doesn’t want to do that, he is just forfeiting himself some more help in the next couple of years
I don’t think the restructure even requires 12’s approval. It’s a move the team can make on their own to basically pay out the same monetary figure only structured differently from a salary cap perspective. The team hasn’t done it yet, to my knowledge, which leads me to agree with the conclusion we haven’t really sold out to make any “run” so to speak.
At least that’s how I believe it works...? I could be full of it completely.