Aaron Jones - prepping to get paid

[lupedafiasco]

Alright this thread needs to die. Do we all like Jones? That should be a unanimous yes. Hes a terrific player. That being said the priority is D Bak and Woah Kenny! We have an estimated 30 mil next year to spend. I would expect just between those two we are going to hit 30 mil. Thats not including Kevin King.

We just drafted a 2nd round RB and lets be honest about the history of paying RBs in the last decade. Its crippling to a team. Theres buyers remorse all over the place.

This is the price you pay when you have incompetence at GM. You end up overpaying and drafting poorly for so long you cant afford to keep the better talent on the team. It is what it is.

I’m gonna choose to live in denial about Jones and still hope we keep him.

to funny, this thread needs to die because people aren't agreeing with Lupe, and a couple RB contracts didn't work out and all of a sudden there is buyer remorse, and oh ya, Ted sucks did I leave anything out of that last act of desperation to get the last word in on this subject?

Say what you want. You guys are all debating keeping a player clearly on his way out. The safest bet out of anything I know is Jones playing elsewhere and Dillon being the starter next season.

[Yoop]

I’m gonna choose to live in denial about Jones and still hope we keep him.

to funny, this thread needs to die because people aren't agreeing with Lupe, and a couple RB contracts didn't work out and all of a sudden there is buyer remorse, and oh ya, Ted sucks did I leave anything out of that last act of desperation to get the last word in on this subject?

Say what you want. You guys are all debating keeping a player clearly on his way out. The safest bet out of anything I know is Jones playing elsewhere and Dillon being the starter next season.

you may be right, but it would make little sense to me, for one he was our second best receiver and 2 by far the best RB we've had since Ahman Green, with low mileage, you said last season was his only healthy season which is a half truth as he was only injured 4 games, the reality is that McCarthy didn't use him.

right now, and until Dillon or someone else proves it Jones is the highest single production producer on this team, neck and neck with Rodgers, more then Adams, or anyone else, lis unless someone changes that this season the FO would be really risking a lot to cut him lose, so I doubt they will.

[Drj820]

BC put tons of miles on Dillon in college. Jones is probably fresher than him three years into his career.

[wallyuwl]

really, just because it was discussed on this forum does not mean it actually happened, and I've never heard that the NFL has to promise a certain amount of viewers prior to inking any broadcast contract, and as with everything else viewership numbers vary year to year, and fans wont be so quick to listen or think players kneeling are dis respecting our vets because some twisted president said so.

Networks promise advertisers a certain amount of viewers. If networks don't think they can make as much money from advertisers because of anticipated reduced viewership, they won't bid as high to carry the NFL's product.

Here are two articles I found with a 10 second search about networks refunding advertisers due to less than anticipated viewership that cover 2016 and 2017 seasons:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nfl-rati ... 33576.html

https://www.westernjournal.com/nfl-clos ... vertisers/

[Yoop]

But now the struggles of America’s national pastime have begun to affect the bottom line for networks, eating into what would have otherwise been a 5.3% increase for a TV industry that is combatting its own demons in the shape of other streaming platforms. In November 2016, the overall TV market was down -2.4% year over year.

[lupedafiasco]

to funny, this thread needs to die because people aren't agreeing with Lupe, and a couple RB contracts didn't work out and all of a sudden there is buyer remorse, and oh ya, Ted sucks did I leave anything out of that last act of desperation to get the last word in on this subject?

Say what you want. You guys are all debating keeping a player clearly on his way out. The safest bet out of anything I know is Jones playing elsewhere and Dillon being the starter next season.

you may be right, but it would make little sense to me, for one he was our second best receiver and 2 by far the best RB we've had since Ahman Green, with low mileage, you said last season was his only healthy season which is a half truth as he was only injured 4 games, the reality is that McCarthy didn't use him.

right now, and until Dillon or someone else proves it Jones is the highest single production producer on this team, neck and neck with Rodgers, more then Adams, or anyone else, lis unless someone changes that this season the FO would be really risking a lot to cut him lose, so I doubt they will.

As it stands the Packers have 33 mil in cap space for next offseason with Clark, Bak, Linsley, King, and Jones as the big name FAs. There is no replacement on the current roster for Clark or Bak. There are actually quite a few options for Linsley whether its moving Jenkins to center or possibly Hanson moving into that role. King could be replaced with some of the current roster options. Maybe Hollman steps into that role or Jackson develops. Jones already has his replacement ready in Dillon.

Jones has clearly been an impact player. The chances of keeping Clark, Bak, and Jones is nil at 33 million. Clark and Bak alone are going to eat 30 mil at a minimum. Clark and Bak are a lot more rare of a player to find than a starting RB. Thats just fact.

And such is the lesson on drafting backup players early and wasting premium draft picks on players that cant get onto the field. Guys like Gary and Love need to be playing but they cant with the talent above them.

[BF004]

I don’t see how you can say no replacements for Bak or Clark and then intentionally leave King off. While saying with options without listing one.

I mean you could say Bak and Clark are two blue chippers we can’t lose, but we have zero long term options for stating CB. I actually don’t even think its close we have more LT options than we do CB options.

[lupedafiasco]

I don’t see how you can say no replacements for Bak or Clark and then intentionally leave King off. While saying with options without listing one.

I mean you could say Bak and Clark are two blue chippers we can’t lose, but we have zero long term options for stating CB. I actually don’t even think its close we have more LT options than we do CB options.

Its easier to find a #2 CB than it is to find a starting LT. I dont think this team has any options to start at LT outside of Bak. Whos going to start? Light? Runyan? I dont think those are legitimate options.

I could see Hollman making the leap. I personally dont think Kevin King is that good. Hes definitely replaceable. There are plenty of CBs in the league who can catch a few picks and get beat over the top consistently. We still dont know if Josh Jackson is going to develop. Theres Sullivan who is more suited to be a nickel guy but hes still there.

I cant possibly see any other options outside of Bak. There isnt even anyone with potential to take over LT. There are plenty of players with potential to take over the #2 CB spot.

[BF004]

Yes, we know you don’t like King, that doesn’t make it any more likely for us alternative starting options.

And yes, the combination of Light, Jenkins, and Runyon is at least comparable than Hollman, Jackson and Sullivan, basically where Sullivan is already a borderline starter at CB3.

[Drj820]

Looking at everybody we have to replace or pay soon screams to me “the window” is the 2020 season and NOW in year 2 of MLF. Beyond 2020 it seems a new window could develop but a lot of the pieces we will need, may soon be gone. And the replacements will be apart of a new potential window.

[YoHoChecko]

Looking at the recent RB contracts given out, they're actually not as bad/prohibitive as I had assumed/imagined (stupid reporting of new money/new years threw me off). Especially when you consider that Kamara has a dummy figure in his final year (no way they pay him $25 million in the first year with no prorated signing bonus; without that $25M at the end, his cap numbers average $10.5 M over the next 5 years).

Watching last night, I figured Jones is very good, but he's still not at Kamara's level of productivity.

A deal that places him in the Cook/Kamara range without Kamara's dummy year (or with it, but still being a dummy year for us) is a lot more palletable than I had previously imagined.

I'm still on the fence and could go either way about keeping him. But I wanted to look at the comps from this offseason more closely, and it was a prettier picture than I expected.

image.png (11.21 KiB) Viewed 395 times

Also worth noting that the two most recent--Cook and Kamara--seem to take the low cap in 2021 into account.

[BF004]

I'm still aboard the do Bak and King first.

Can always make contracts work if we want all 3, might not be the best move and those would also make it more likely we force our hands to move on from Rodgers sooner than later.

Seems silly, but with New Orleans losing to the Raiders, and without Michael Thomas seeming to struggle and not looking like contenders and the Vikings looking like they are rebuilding, feels like both contracts were already a mistake about 10 days in, lol.


RB franchise tag was only 10.2 million this year.

I would honestly be fine just tagging him in 2021 and again in 2022 if needed, basically a 2 year probably around 28 million contract with zero long term commitment but keeps him here right until his inevitable RB cliff.

You like to take care of your own, but it just isn't smart football management to make such a long term commitment to that position.

[YoHoChecko]

Seems silly, but with New Orleans losing to the Raiders, and without Michael Thomas seeming to struggle and not looking like contenders and the Vikings looking like they are rebuilding, feels like both contracts were already a mistake about 10 days in, lol.

I guess the idea that, say, Dalvin Cook will be at $5M, $5M, 12M for the current year and next two years is cheaper than going two franchise tags and you can almost always get out of a deal 3 years in.

I think very VERY few fans, even Lupe, would have a lot of negative things to say about having Jones for $22M over the next 3 years and figure out the cap implications if it doesn't pan out for the final 2 years of a longer deal.

[go pak go]

Seems silly, but with New Orleans losing to the Raiders, and without Michael Thomas seeming to struggle and not looking like contenders and the Vikings looking like they are rebuilding, feels like both contracts were already a mistake about 10 days in, lol.

I guess the idea that, say, Dalvin Cook will be at $5M, $5M, 12M for the current year and next two years is cheaper than going two franchise tags and you can almost always get out of a deal 3 years in.

I think very VERY few fans, even Lupe, would have a lot of negative things to say about having Jones for $22M over the next 3 years and figure out the cap implications if it doesn't pan out for the final 2 years of a longer deal.

I'm in that boat as well.

Our team is clicking and we are clearly in a window where this team has as good a shot as any. I say go for it by keeping your studs in place until 2023 and then figure out where we want to go after that.

If we come away with a ring in that time period, who cares if we need to eat a lot of mistakes in 2024.

[BF004]

Seems silly, but with New Orleans losing to the Raiders, and without Michael Thomas seeming to struggle and not looking like contenders and the Vikings looking like they are rebuilding, feels like both contracts were already a mistake about 10 days in, lol.

I guess the idea that, say, Dalvin Cook will be at $5M, $5M, 12M for the current year and next two years is cheaper than going two franchise tags and you can almost always get out of a deal 3 years in.

I think very VERY few fans, even Lupe, would have a lot of negative things to say about having Jones for $22M over the next 3 years and figure out the cap implications if it doesn't pan out for the final 2 years of a longer deal.

I suppose it is 3 years of play for 4 years and about 27 million of cap hits. That really isn't bad...

I keep saying about 3 for 30 is my cap and I like 3 for 24. I get it now.

I do hate the idea of signing contracts with guys with the intentions of cutting them though, seems foolish and think players should stand up to their agents more to cut out more of the BS years.

[go pak go]

Seems silly, but with New Orleans losing to the Raiders, and without Michael Thomas seeming to struggle and not looking like contenders and the Vikings looking like they are rebuilding, feels like both contracts were already a mistake about 10 days in, lol.

I guess the idea that, say, Dalvin Cook will be at $5M, $5M, 12M for the current year and next two years is cheaper than going two franchise tags and you can almost always get out of a deal 3 years in.

I think very VERY few fans, even Lupe, would have a lot of negative things to say about having Jones for $22M over the next 3 years and figure out the cap implications if it doesn't pan out for the final 2 years of a longer deal.

I suppose it is 3 years of play for 4 years and about 27 million of cap hits. That really isn't bad...

I keep saying about 3 for 30 is my cap and I like 3 for 24. I get it now.

I do hate the idea of signing contracts with guys with the intentions of cutting them though, seems foolish and think players should stand up to their agents more to cut out more of the BS years.

So I have a feeling Jones will have a lot more "lower" deal than guys like Kamara etc. Jones just seems to have a good head on his shoulders and not go for the headline attention numbers.

What ultimately matters is you actually stay on the team to earn your paycheck.

[YoHoChecko]

So I have a feeling Jones will have a lot more "lower" deal than guys like Kamara etc. Jones just seems to have a good head on his shoulders and not go for the headline attention numbers.

What ultimately matters is you actually stay on the team to earn your paycheck.

I can see that, but he also joked that it was time to call his agent when talking to a sideline reporter after the 75-yard run, sooo..

Again, I can see both sides of this. I am generally a "don't pay RBs" guy, but I am also aware that Jones is a big part of this engine.

I am usually a "don't give a contract you don't intend to keep all the way through" guy, but I can see a case--especially in these weird cap times with a likely 2022 jump after a 2021 lull to say "sign the guys you can and figure out the details when the dust settles" in these unique circumstances.

Plus, we genuinely are, now, in the "last days with Rodgers" whether that be one year (unlikely), 2-3 years (likely) or 4 years (unlikely). I'm willing to push a few more chips in right now than usual.

Bakh is more important, to me--but also more expensive. King is important, but only if he's signing a less-than-premium deal. I don't think we can afford two premium CB deals and I want to keep Jaire next year. I'm not taking a bold stand toward paying Jones... but looking at the other deals, I think it's far more achievable than I did before looking at the details.

[NCF]

Plus, we genuinely are, now, in the "last days with Rodgers" whether that be one year (unlikely), 2-3 years (likely) or 4 years (unlikely). I'm willing to push a few more chips in right now than usual.

I agree completely.

[NCF]

Bakh is more important, to me--but also more expensive. King is important, but only if he's signing a less-than-premium deal. I don't think we can afford two premium CB deals and I want to keep Jaire next year. I'm not taking a bold stand toward paying Jones... but looking at the other deals, I think it's far more achievable than I did before looking at the details.

On the same page, here, as well.

Based on various reports and my own opinions, we are looking at:

Bak - $18-$22M/per to resign
Jones - $12-13M/per to resign
King - really quiet, but based on other CB deals, I bet somewhere around $16-18M to resign and I'd rather have Jaire, long-term.
Linsley - not sure on this one either, but whatever it is, pass... and Linsley has been great this year, but I'm not paying an OC.

[NCF]

I also think, with Jamaal Williams coming up, as well, the WORST thing we could do is let Jones walk and pay ANYTHING to Williams. You don't pay a guy like that without any special traits, but then again, going into next season with just Dillon also seems irresponsible in an "all-in" mentality type of season with Rodgers as long as he is around.