Cheese Curds - News Around The League 2023

[Pckfn23]

[YoHoChecko]

Are you guys aware of the dumb coaching rivalry brewing with the Broncos and Jets? I love it. (NFL Network's Good Morning Football gave some new fun insights into it today)

So we all know that Hackett is a "players' coach." He makes things fun and the guys love him. We know he was beloved in Green Bay (and not just by Rodgers). And we know that he did not hit/meet expectations as a HC in Denver last year.

We have reports that he was a) too much of a players' coach with discipline and b) tried to give Russell Wilson too much favorable treatment and that sorta divided the team.

Ok so now, the Jets bring Hackett in as OC to help lure/recruit/appease Rodgers. The Broncos hire Sean Payton as their new HC. And Payton, without warning, publicly states that the team the previous year was the worst-coached team he'd ever seen.

So now the Jets players, led by Rodgers, are defending Hackett and the Broncos players are defending Payton. Wilson is on the podium saying how lucky they are to have a HoF coach and yada yada. Rodgers infamously responded to Payton's comments by saying "keep my coach's name out [yo'] mouth."


So in advance of the Broncos' preseason game, Payton is out there saying what he want sot see. He's talking about being prepared and not making small mistakes and also adds in that he doesn't want people on the sideline wearing bucket hats and sunglasses doing in-game interviews rather than being engaged with the team.

Cue Garrett Wilson in New York:




I bring this nonsense up for one reason: whether you like Rodgers or not. Whether you're hoping to see him succeed and wishing him well in his new home or not. One thing that can bring all Packers fans together and can bring Packers and Jets fans together (after a tense spring of leverage arguments and trash talking).....

... let's all hate Sean Payton and root for Russ and co. to fall on their faces. For unity!

[Crazylegs Starks]

So why does Sean hate bucket hats? It's such a weird thing to be against.

And sunglasses? Your players aren't allowed to protect themselves from the sun, Sean???

[APB]

I guess it's official now:

[YoHoChecko]

I guess it's official now:

As a Michael Carter dynasty owner, this annoys me.

Imagine having Breece Hall and a mega-dynamic young change of pace guy on a rookie contract and using your extra dough to sign a slowing, fading, aging RB instead of literally any other position. Or even just rolling the money over to make a good signing next year on the regular free agent market when you have options.

[Drj820]

I guess it's official now:

As a Michael Carter dynasty owner, this annoys me.

Imagine having Breece Hall and a mega-dynamic young change of pace guy on a rookie contract and using your extra dough to sign a slowing, fading, aging RB instead of literally any other position. Or even just rolling the money over to make a good signing next year on the regular free agent market when you have options.

Some teams will use cap space to acquire as many playmakers as they can. Some won’t.

[Pckfn23]

Sammy Watkins.

Helps when the QB takes a pay cut.

[wallyuwl]

They should have used that cash to trade for bak

[APB]

They should have used that cash to trade for bak

An Olineman, yes. Bak? No. Doesn't make sense for them or the Packers. Their needs lay elsewhere along the OL.

Then again, as [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention] alluded to, I guess it doesn't have to make sense so long as it's a big name.

[APB]

I guess it's official now:

As a Michael Carter dynasty owner, this annoys me.

Imagine having Breece Hall and a mega-dynamic young change of pace guy on a rookie contract and using your extra dough to sign a slowing, fading, aging RB instead of literally any other position. Or even just rolling the money over to make a good signing next year on the regular free agent market when you have options.

Some teams will use cap space to acquire as many playmakers as they can. Some won’t.

Agreed, but that still doesn't explain why the Jets signed 2023 Dalvin Cook.

[Crazylegs Starks]

If the Jets sign any more aging vets, they'll be in danger of becoming the next "Dream Team" ala the 2011 Eagles

[Drj820]

Dalvin cook is still a good player lol

[YoHoChecko]

Dalvin cook is still a good player lol

1. Sure; I won't argue with "good." Won't go an inch higher than that, though, either.

2. I'll have to see the contract, but RBs of all calibers are having so much trouble getting paid this year that they had a conference call trying to figure out what to do about it, so it's pretty clear the market is speaking pretty clearly that RBs aren't a great use of resources, hence Cook still being available. They just paid $6-8 million for a RB2 who might not be much of an improvement over their current RB2.

3. The Jets clearly have needs along the OL and have a pretty stacked RB room. So whether you agree with the market of the position or the needs of the team, this is more significant from a PR perspective than it will be on the field.

4. It amazes me that there are still people in the world that think "signing a player I've heard of" is the best strategy to team building, regardless of team need or positional value or player decline. But here you still are.

[APB]

2. I'll have to see the contract, but RBs of all calibers are having so much trouble getting paid this year that they had a conference call trying to figure out what to do about it, so it's pretty clear the market is speaking pretty clearly that RBs aren't a great use of resources, hence Cook still being available. They just paid $6-8 million for a RB2 who might not be much of an improvement over their current RB2.

[YoHoChecko]

Is Dalvin Cook cooked? Here’s what the advanced metrics say about the ex-Viking

By Ted Nguyen
Jun 10, 2023

Dalvin Cook, who was released Friday by the Minnesota Vikings, is a 27-year-old running back who is coming off his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He was set to enter the fourth year of the five-year, $63 million deal he signed in 2020. Cook’s cap number for 2023 was about $14.1 million, the third-largest number among NFL running backs. And he is still productive and capable of hitting home runs. He had four touches that went for more than 40 yards last season.

For a team loading up for a deep playoff run, it might have made sense to keep Cook despite his salary. But at this point in the offseason, they didn’t have the cap space to make much in the way of impactful additions.

Although Minnesota went 13-4 last season, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who has a background in analytics, might be looking at its 11 wins in one-score games last season as a sign the Vikings may regress in 2023. Cutting Cook doesn’t mean they are waving the white flag, but they could be looking to invest their resources in building a foundation for the long term rather than pushing too many chips in and betting on this current iteration of the team.

Cook is still relatively young and productive, but if you look past the typical stats, he is declining in several advanced metrics. Adofo-Mensah understands that Cook’s future production isn’t likely to correspond to his contract numbers and that his expected replacement, Alexander Mattison, can get close to his level of production at a much cheaper price.

Watching the film, Cook still has excellent vision, a sharp jump cut and the ability to make defenders miss in tight spaces. When he gets into the open field, he has the burst to finish long runs. However, coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme and the Vikings’ strong run blocking were big factors in Cook’s production.

Microchip data also suggests that though Cook still has juice, he slowed down significantly last season. Below, we’ll examine percentile scores from Telemetry Sports that were derived from Next Gen Stats’ microchip data.

Rushing yards over expected
Next Gen Stats defines expected yards as the rushing yards that a ball carrier is expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders. These factors are measured by microchip data. The total of rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is how many actual yards a runner gets over what is expected.

According to Telemetry, Cook ranked 55th out of 69 eligible NFL runners in this metric last season. In 2021, he ranked 42nd out of 77, and in 2020, he ranked eighth out of 82.

Rushing explosiveness
Rushing explosiveness is a percentile score that measures a player’s explosive runs. Telemetry defines an explosive run as a run in which the actual yards gained are at least 10 yards more than the expected yards gained. Last season, Cook ranked 41st out of 69 runners in this metric.

How does this make sense given Cook’s number of memorable big plays? Though he did have several very long runs, he only had 19 rushes of 12 yards or more last season (14th in the league). His rushing explosiveness score suggests that he left a lot of yards on the field.

In 2021, he ranked fourth out of 77 in this stat, and in 2020, he ranked 27th out of 82.

Rushing elusiveness
Rushing elusiveness is a percentile score that measures a runner’s ability to evade tacklers. The factors included are yards after contact and tackles avoided.

Last season, Cook ranked 28th out of 70 runners in this metric. Though he ranked in the top half of eligible runners, 28th is a far cry from elite. In 2021, he ranked 34th out of 78, and in 2020, he ranked eighth out of 82.

On film, he does showcase the ability to make the first tackler miss in small spaces, and his nagging shoulder injury was likely a factor in his struggle to break tackles and create more yards after contact. He’ll probably rank more favorably in this metric if he can stay healthy next season.

Play speed
Play speed is a percentile score that factors in linear speed, acceleration and change of direction. Cook ranked 30th out of 64 eligible runners in this metric last season. In 2021, he ranked 28th out of 73, but in 2020, he ranked 12th out of 69.

Though Cook hasn’t missed significant time due to injuries in the last four years — he has played an average of 14.5 games per season — he has had some lingering issues. In 2021, he hurt his ankle and then reinjured it later in the season. He also has dislocated his shoulder two seasons in a row. He didn’t miss any games last season because of it, but there must be some concern that the injuries are starting to pile up and zap his athleticism.

Last season, he seemed to get worn down as games progressed. Throughout his career, Cook typically has been very effective in the fourth quarter, but last season, his production dipped. In the first three quarters, he averaged 4.6 yards per rush and 37 percent of his rushes were deemed successful. In the fourth quarter, though, his yards per carry dropped to 3.9 and only 21.4 percent of his runs were successful.

What’s next?
Though Cook could well be an effective runner for at least another season or two, Adofo-Mensah probably saw the decline and preferred to cut bait a little too early rather than too late — especially considering the money Cook would have been paid in the coming years. Teams around the league likely view him in a similar light and didn’t want to take on Cook’s contract via trade.

Now, Cook will likely get a one- or two-year deal from a team that already has a lead back and wants to win now. A team like the Broncos makes sense. Javonte Williams is promising, but he’ll be coming back from a major knee injury. Having Cook as an insurance policy in case he’s not quite ready — or to split carries — would be ideal for a Sean Payton offense that will lean on the ground game.

The Cowboys were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league last season and might run even more with Mike McCarthy calling plays. After cutting Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys could use another established runner to pair with Tony Pollard, who has never been a workhorse back in the NFL before.

With the Dolphins, Cook could return to his home state and play in an outside zone scheme that is a perfect fit for his skill set. He would also have Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson to split carries with, which could help him stay fresh.

As a summary of the above info; Cook's ranks in these carious metrics over the past 3 years:

image.png (7.99 KiB) Viewed 303 times

So yeah. He's a pretty good player. Around the 30th to 55th best RB in the league. A perfectly acceptable RB2. For decent veteran money that the Jets can afford because they have 2 RBs on rookie contracts and because their QB left money on the table to definitely improve RB2 and not the OL, I'm sure.

[APB]

Dalvin cook is still a good player lol

I’ll grant you “good”, at least he was, but he’s another year older and they already had “good” on the roster. He’s also in decline while those he’s taking snaps from are ascending players.

Take a look at his broken tackles (way down) and tackled-for-loss numbers (way up). Couple those with his middling YPA and he’s become just another RB. Yeah, he’s still capable of the occasional break-away, but the TFLs are becoming much more the norm for him than the big play.

They had no need to sign “just another rb” for top dollar when they could’ve used the space to actually improve the roster.

[LombardiTime]

If the Jets sign any more aging vets, they'll be in danger of becoming the next "Dream Team" ala the 2011 Eagles

I have no idea whether Dalvin is "Cooked" and do not have a strong opinion as to whether his was a good or bad signing.

However, if Cook is to be considered an overpaid, "aging" vet, who plays a non-premium position, what exactly does make the Pack's Aaron Jones?

Cook is on just a 1-year deal.

Cook is younger than Jones.

And while their caps hits will be (I believe) about equal in 2023, the Pack is on the hook for $24M in dead cap expenditures in the future even if they move on from Jones after the 2023 season.

If Cook's contract with the Jets is a bad one ... for the team, why is the Jones contract a good one for the Pack?

[YoHoChecko]

I don't consider Cook an "aging" vet so much as a declining one. Only 27, even for RBs that's not an age that rings alarm bells yet.

And I'm also not saying it's a BAD signing. I don't think they'll regret it. It just isn't a signing that moves the needle to me in one way or another, at all. And I needed to push back on the narrative that, like, because Rodgers has for the first time in his career taken less than the highest possible contract, it has freed up the Jets to make a big impact with this guy--a veteran of the NFL's least valuable position (in a literal PR crisis management mode over the summer) whose play last year was worse than his play the year before which was mostly worse than the play the year before.

And the implicartion, mostly, though some outright saying it, that somehow it is the PACKERS' fault that Rodgers took all the money and never left any for the team because the PACKERS would never have used that money to make a SAVVY move like [declining player at the league's least valuable position where he'll have to compete and share time with the current backup ]


So my point is not "what a bad signing!" My point is "if this is the kind of signing Rodgers wanted to see in order to give us back more money from his contract, then it's further evidence, along with Cobb and company, that Rodgers is not an ideal GM, to put it mildly.

As to your question comparing the Packers/Jones and Cook... NFL teams are going to need at least 2 backs who can start throughout the season at least in spot duty. The Packers have that in Dillon and Jones. The Jets have that in Hall and Carter. This offseason, Cook and Jones were in similar contractual spots. First, it's worth noting, Jones' play is not declining; possibly because we often utilized him less than fans wanted. Cook's is. That's one difference.

Two: Faced with above-market contracts and a glut of available talent at the position, Cook didn't take, or wasn't offered, a pay cut to remain on his current team. Jones was offered and did take a pay cut to remain in his current system. That's another difference.

But by far the biggest difference is that Jones is our RB1 and Cook will be sharing time as their RB2. To say why is it ok to pay Jones and a questionable move to pay Cook? Well simple: it's because Jones is better right now and because Jones plays a premiere role on the Packers and Cook is likely to play a complementary role on the Jets. And the guy who was slated to play that complementary role has had a very string training camp and is uber cheap.

Just entirely different situations from top to bottom. The only thing they have in common is that they are RBs and played in the NFC North last year on high-level RB contracts. After that, everything else is different.

The Jets signing Cook--and the Pats signing Elliot--and the Saints signing Kareem Hunt... those are all depth signings where former NFL stars are finally hitting the point in their offseason where they realize their choice is to take less in money and a smaller role, but keep playing football. Or to hold to the principals of what they think they should be worth and not get to play. They are all backups now. They are all fading in effectiveness. And they should all be evaluated as "does this team have a need in the RB room and do they have better uses for those resources?" Or "is paying money for a backup RB ever a good use of resources given how effective cheap guys off the street have proven themselves to be in these complementary roles. A star RB can move wins and losses. A complementary back likely can't, regardless of his pay.

Personally, as a long-term proponent of replaceable RBs and dynasty owner of the guy Cook was signed to supercede and Elliot was signed to supercede, I hate these moves. But I am not fully objective. All of these moves will range from the Packers signing Sammy Watkins (no positive impact, few wasted resources, team moved on) to the Packers signing Marcedes Lewis (a little pricey for the role, but a valuable member of the on-field rotation and off-field chemistry and leadership.

So if you treat the signing of Cook like we treated Sammy or Lewis when they first arrived, that's fine (and don't forget, I was excited about bounce-back Sammy; I fell for the "under 30 player whose decline might just be injury luck" narrative). But if you treat the signing of Cook as the kind of big splash use of resources that the Packers just never did and which justify Rodgers' animosity toward the team and unwillingness to help them financially, then you just have every factual line of analysis wholly incorrect about what this situation is.

[YoHoChecko]

Sorry, I've been having a ton of trouble with brevity (even more than usual) since adjusting my head meds. Work in progress.

[salmar80]

Spending resources on RBs when AR was in GB = horrible waste, RBs are low value and not weapons for AR

Another team spending resources on RBs when AR is there = utter brilliance, RBs are bestest and key weapons for AR



Man, do you see that grass over there? On the other side of that fence? Soooo green, so shiny!