Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 06 Jul 2022 20:13
Love vs Lewis in the 3rd runoff this year
Yup, 39 year old QB's never get hurt. And so 38 year old 3rd string tight ends are more valuable.
Right.
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Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
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Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 10:49
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 11:13
Marcedes Lewis was 8th in receptions last year, and two of the guys ahead of him are gone.
Marcedes Lewis was 11th in offensive snaps last year (ahead of MVS and AJ Dillon)
You can make the case that he's the 6th or 7th most important blocker on the team (behind the starting 5 OL and a top backup, perhaps) and the 7th or 8th most important receiving option. He's definitely not a "3rd string" anything.
If Rodgers gets hurt and Love plays an important role, he may have a huge impact on wins and losses. But his status here reflects the feeling by many on the board that Love will likely lead to losses because he's not a very good QB right now, not just the role he plays on the team.
I will also, again, point out that to a man--the QB, the head coach, the offensive coordinators, and the positions coaches--the presence and impact of Marcedes Lewis is raved about. Those who think of him as just a "38-year old 3rd string TE" implicitly believe that everyone on and around the team is lying, and that Lewis is actually un-impactful.
Marcedes Lewis was 11th in offensive snaps last year (ahead of MVS and AJ Dillon)
You can make the case that he's the 6th or 7th most important blocker on the team (behind the starting 5 OL and a top backup, perhaps) and the 7th or 8th most important receiving option. He's definitely not a "3rd string" anything.
If Rodgers gets hurt and Love plays an important role, he may have a huge impact on wins and losses. But his status here reflects the feeling by many on the board that Love will likely lead to losses because he's not a very good QB right now, not just the role he plays on the team.
I will also, again, point out that to a man--the QB, the head coach, the offensive coordinators, and the positions coaches--the presence and impact of Marcedes Lewis is raved about. Those who think of him as just a "38-year old 3rd string TE" implicitly believe that everyone on and around the team is lying, and that Lewis is actually un-impactful.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 11:38
your opinion of both Lewis and Love is wrong, your pushing a vote for a guy who in all likely hood will never play more then mop up duty, and against a player that will see a 1/3 or more of offensive snaps, so why would anyone agree with youTheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 10:49Yup, 39 year old QB's never get hurt. And so 38 year old 3rd string tight ends are more valuable.
Right.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 12:44
In addition to what YoHo and Yoop said, some of us (i.e. me) are down on Love right now. I need to see something this preseason.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 12:52
Lewis got snaps because Tonyan got hurt. Because Cobb got hurt. Because Deguara was not over his injury. Because Ameri Rodgers was a rookie and not ready for prime time.Yoop wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 11:38your opinion of both Lewis and Love is wrong, your pushing a vote for a guy who in all likely hood will never play more then mop up duty, and against a player that will see a 1/3 or more of offensive snaps, so why would anyone agree with youTheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 10:49Yup, 39 year old QB's never get hurt. And so 38 year old 3rd string tight ends are more valuable.
Right.
Now, lets assume that Cobb is not hurt and Tonyan is healthy and Ameri Rodgers has worked on his body and is a little faster and quicker. In this scenario, how many snaps is Lewis going to get? Maybe 1 a game, on 4th and a half yard. Rarely are you going to see 2 TE formations when you have a good healthy slot receiver.
Or, lets assume that Tyler Davis is what MLF and Gute said he is. In this case Davis takes the role that Lewis had last season, as the blocking TE, because that is what he is. Of course unlike Lewis he won't get caught from behind by a defensive end so MLF and AR have a lot more options with him on the field than with Lewis. So if Tyler Davis steps up, how many snaps does Lewis get - that is right, zero. Because Davis is TE#2.
Or, Deguara. Maybe he is finally healthy? Maybe he is the real deal. If he is both, Lewis gets a big fat zero snaps too. Because Deguara and Davis are TE #2 and #3 and Lewis probably does not even make the 53.
Or, lets assume that Watson or Doubs is the real deal and takes the #1 WR slot. That leaves Watkins and Lazard in a 3-WR configuration with Tonyan at TE. Assuming that Lazard is playing a hybrid TE/WE role, how many snaps does Lewis get? Again, maybe 1 a game in situations where the Packers need a half yard for a 1st down or TD. Or in that half hard situation Davis or an OT gets the call and Lewis does not even suit up.
The plain fact is that it all depends on Tonyan. If he is healthy the chances of Lewis playing more than 1 or 2 snaps a game are nil. There are about 6 players who could step up and take all the snaps that Lewis had last season. 2 of them will, according to the odds and that leaves next to nothing for Lewis.
As for Love. You can go on believing that AR does not get hurt.
After all, he has never had a concussion, has he? In fact he has had 3.
He never broke his foot and went onto IR, did he?
He never broke his collar bone, did he?
He did not have a MCL sprain in 2018 and a bone bruise and play anyway so he was not healed for the playoffs, did he?
He did not break his toe last season, did he.
He was not suspended because of COVID, was he?
No, of course not, AR has been the iron man, even more than Brett Favre.
No, no, it is impossible that AR would ever get hurt and miss a game. It would never be better for him to sit and heal rather than aggravate an injury and not be healthy for the playoffs.
And he is still a 26 year old QB and heals quickly, right?
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 12:58
Lewis played 45% of the offensive snaps in 2019.TheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:52Lewis got snaps because Tonyan got hurt. Because Cobb got hurt. Because Deguara was not over his injury. Because Ameri Rodgers was a rookie and not ready for prime time.
He played 41% of the offensive snaps in 2020.
He played 43% of the offensive snaps in 2021.
His playing time is schematic, not circumstantial.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 12:58
Which is why the Packers cut their 3rd QB before the pre season. If they have no confidence in Love, why did they do that?Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:44In addition to what YoHo and Yoop said, some of us (i.e. me) are down on Love right now. I need to see something this preseason.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 13:06
You conveniently left out that they kept the 4th QB, Etling. Anyway, the real reason is because they're not going to carry a #3 during the season and Benkert/Etling aren't good enough to beat him out. Beating out those two is a low bar, though, so until I hear or see some growth, I'm down on Love.TheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:58Which is why the Packers cut their 3rd QB before the pre season. If they have no confidence in Love, why did they do that?Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:44In addition to what YoHo and Yoop said, some of us (i.e. me) are down on Love right now. I need to see something this preseason.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 13:21
I fully agree with you that Etling is not good enough. He is a camp arm and probably won't even make the PS. A 7th round pick in 2108 and 7 different teams since then is not inspiring. As for Benkert, there is only 1 reason to not have kept him through the pre-season and that is to give him a chance to spend the pre-season with another team. Whether he does or not remains to be seen. I will not argue with your opinion of Love, I too am anxious to see him in pre season. But the fact remains that he is the backup QB for this season baring injury and his job is more critical than any other backup job on the team.Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 13:06You conveniently left out that they kept the 4th QB, Etling. Anyway, the real reason is because they're not going to carry a #3 during the season and Benkert/Etling aren't good enough to beat him out. Beating out those two is a low bar, though, so until I hear or see some growth, I'm down on Love.TheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:58Which is why the Packers cut their 3rd QB before the pre season. If they have no confidence in Love, why did they do that?Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:44In addition to what YoHo and Yoop said, some of us (i.e. me) are down on Love right now. I need to see something this preseason.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 13:30
for this exercise Skeptic I will not vote for a player who's only chance to play would be due to the starter being injured, specially since that player has not shown starting ability as yet.TheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:52Lewis got snaps because Tonyan got hurt. Because Cobb got hurt. Because Deguara was not over his injury. Because Ameri Rodgers was a rookie and not ready for prime time.Yoop wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 11:38your opinion of both Lewis and Love is wrong, your pushing a vote for a guy who in all likely hood will never play more then mop up duty, and against a player that will see a 1/3 or more of offensive snaps, so why would anyone agree with youTheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 10:49Yup, 39 year old QB's never get hurt. And so 38 year old 3rd string tight ends are more valuable.
Right.
Now, lets assume that Cobb is not hurt and Tonyan is healthy and Ameri Rodgers has worked on his body and is a little faster and quicker. In this scenario, how many snaps is Lewis going to get? Maybe 1 a game, on 4th and a half yard. Rarely are you going to see 2 TE formations when you have a good healthy slot receiver.
Or, lets assume that Tyler Davis is what MLF and Gute said he is. In this case Davis takes the role that Lewis had last season, as the blocking TE, because that is what he is. Of course unlike Lewis he won't get caught from behind by a defensive end so MLF and AR have a lot more options with him on the field than with Lewis. So if Tyler Davis steps up, how many snaps does Lewis get - that is right, zero. Because Davis is TE#2.
Or, Deguara. Maybe he is finally healthy? Maybe he is the real deal. If he is both, Lewis gets a big fat zero snaps too. Because Deguara and Davis are TE #2 and #3 and Lewis probably does not even make the 53.
Or, lets assume that Watson or Doubs is the real deal and takes the #1 WR slot. That leaves Watkins and Lazard in a 3-WR configuration with Tonyan at TE. Assuming that Lazard is playing a hybrid TE/WE role, how many snaps does Lewis get? Again, maybe 1 a game in situations where the Packers need a half yard for a 1st down or TD. Or in that half hard situation Davis or an OT gets the call and Lewis does not even suit up.
The plain fact is that it all depends on Tonyan. If he is healthy the chances of Lewis playing more than 1 or 2 snaps a game are nil. There are about 6 players who could step up and take all the snaps that Lewis had last season. 2 of them will, according to the odds and that leaves next to nothing for Lewis.
As for Love. You can go on believing that AR does not get hurt.
After all, he has never had a concussion, has he? In fact he has had 3.
He never broke his foot and went onto IR, did he?
He never broke his collar bone, did he?
He did not have a MCL sprain in 2018 and a bone bruise and play anyway so he was not healed for the playoffs, did he?
He did not break his toe last season, did he.
He was not suspended because of COVID, was he?
No, of course not, AR has been the iron man, even more than Brett Favre.
No, no, it is impossible that AR would ever get hurt and miss a game. It would never be better for him to sit and heal rather than aggravate an injury and not be healthy for the playoffs.
And he is still a 26 year old QB and heals quickly, right?
and as Yoho has clearly shown, Lewis plays 40% of the snaps no mater who's in the slot or other TE's, the hope is that Davis or Dequara etc make him expendable, but they havn't done so yet.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 13:36
I think Lewis should be ahead of Love.
Also, I love reading Skeptic's arguments. Yoop makes some great points too for the exception of "not voting unless the only way on the field is a starter getting hurt"...I mean we are at #28 which means we are in the area of playing time being alloted to backup players. I know some reserve players at positions naturally see snaps whereas QB's do not unless of injury, but we are still in range of a backup QB area.
Only reason I am going Lewis is because he is great and Love....well Love hasn't shown he is great yet.
Also, I love reading Skeptic's arguments. Yoop makes some great points too for the exception of "not voting unless the only way on the field is a starter getting hurt"...I mean we are at #28 which means we are in the area of playing time being alloted to backup players. I know some reserve players at positions naturally see snaps whereas QB's do not unless of injury, but we are still in range of a backup QB area.
Only reason I am going Lewis is because he is great and Love....well Love hasn't shown he is great yet.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 13:37
I agree Love has one of the most important jobs on the team, but I see this ranking exercise as "who is the best player" and right now Big Dog is better at his job. All that to say if Love improves this fall, I'll be very, very happy!TheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 13:21I fully agree with you that Etling is not good enough. He is a camp arm and probably won't even make the PS. A 7th round pick in 2108 and 7 different teams since then is not inspiring. As for Benkert, there is only 1 reason to not have kept him through the pre-season and that is to give him a chance to spend the pre-season with another team. Whether he does or not remains to be seen. I will not argue with your opinion of Love, I too am anxious to see him in pre season. But the fact remains that he is the backup QB for this season baring injury and his job is more critical than any other backup job on the team.Crazylegs Starks wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 13:06You conveniently left out that they kept the 4th QB, Etling. Anyway, the real reason is because they're not going to carry a #3 during the season and Benkert/Etling aren't good enough to beat him out. Beating out those two is a low bar, though, so until I hear or see some growth, I'm down on Love.TheSkeptic wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 12:58
Which is why the Packers cut their 3rd QB before the pre season. If they have no confidence in Love, why did they do that?
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 13:50
Surprisingly good arguments here.
I would argue Lewis is gunna get his snaps regardless of guys like Cobb, Daguara, Tonyan. I mean we are also done MVS and Adams now too even if those other guys are back.
Lewis has his position that he plays, doesn’t really have a backup in my opinion. Almost be more likely to see Nijman come in and take TE reps in Lewis’s role than I’d want to see Tonyan or Daguara.
I would argue Loves value for this year does even increase without a 3rd QB on roster, which sure looks like where we are headed. That would also make a PS QB a lock and likely to take a lot of scout team snaps, but still.
I do like Lewis here over Love for 2022 value to team, but I can get both arguments and I don’t think anyone is wrong.
I would argue Lewis is gunna get his snaps regardless of guys like Cobb, Daguara, Tonyan. I mean we are also done MVS and Adams now too even if those other guys are back.
Lewis has his position that he plays, doesn’t really have a backup in my opinion. Almost be more likely to see Nijman come in and take TE reps in Lewis’s role than I’d want to see Tonyan or Daguara.
I would argue Loves value for this year does even increase without a 3rd QB on roster, which sure looks like where we are headed. That would also make a PS QB a lock and likely to take a lot of scout team snaps, but still.
I do like Lewis here over Love for 2022 value to team, but I can get both arguments and I don’t think anyone is wrong.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 14:31
This is where you're wrong about Lewis. He doesn't get those snaps because the (nominal) starter is injured; he got them even when Tonyan was healthy. He gets them because he's literally the best in the business at his position when it comes to blocking, and that makes him part of the gameplan every week.
For this team, which usually moves on from aging vets BEFORE they significantly decline, to still keep Lewis around... should tell you that he has something to offer this team more than your run-of-the-mill depth TE, most of whom would be younger, cheaper, and would offer at least a little more upside. It's his blocking skills. Yes, he's -that- good at it. He also gets rave reviews for his leadership, which is not that easily replaced either.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 14:32
As for the lack of support for Love, again, it's not because people don't value QB2. That part we all get, for the most part. We are just not convinced Love is a good enough player to rank highly.
If we thought we had a young Justin Herbert, we would have been ranked already, much higher than this. He actually looks more like Mike Glennon (who is actually available for us to sign right now) -- a big arm, and not much else. Mike Glennon would not be #28 on this roster, IMO. We would need guys to carry him.
We would probably need to lean on the run a lot to put Glennon/Love in a position to win us games. Well, Lewis is a big part of our ground game. So yes, ranking Lewis ahead of Love makes a lot of sense.
If we thought we had a young Justin Herbert, we would have been ranked already, much higher than this. He actually looks more like Mike Glennon (who is actually available for us to sign right now) -- a big arm, and not much else. Mike Glennon would not be #28 on this roster, IMO. We would need guys to carry him.
We would probably need to lean on the run a lot to put Glennon/Love in a position to win us games. Well, Lewis is a big part of our ground game. So yes, ranking Lewis ahead of Love makes a lot of sense.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 14:48
if where going by team value for the 2022 season Crosby and the punter should have been voted in a week ago, and Love as it stands now ( maybe PS games will prove he's more ready to play ) can't move the team, and I don't care how good our running game is, Running the ball is rarely consistent enough to count on to win without at least a decent passing game to support it, and Love hasn't been even that yet.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 07 Jul 2022 15:34
I still, honest to God, believe Jordan Love is going to be the Packers QB one day, maybe as soon as next season, and I am still voting Big Dog here.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 08 Jul 2022 07:44
You mean that you are voting based on LAST season or the 5 years ago? Wow!Yoop wrote: ↑07 Jul 2022 14:48if where going by team value for the 2022 season Crosby and the punter should have been voted in a week ago, and Love as it stands now ( maybe PS games will prove he's more ready to play ) can't move the team, and I don't care how good our running game is, Running the ball is rarely consistent enough to count on to win without at least a decent passing game to support it, and Love hasn't been even that yet.
Damn right I am voting on the probable value for this coming 2022 season. Otherwise Adams and MVS would be on the list.
You can go ahead and claim that the punter is more valuable than Love. I won't argue with you, no need to.
Re: Rank the Roster 2022: #28 Runoff
Posted: 08 Jul 2022 08:48
I guess this result makes the next decision pretty obvious.