Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison

[APB]

Getting away from the endless regurgitative arguments in the other Jordan Love thread, I saw an interesting question posed regarding Love’s performance expectations relative to other established players for this coming year:





Thoughts?

[Acrobat]

Dak Prescott

[Scott4Pack]

I’m not really interested in comparisons at this point. I just think that Love will surprise some folks with a better than competent level of play.

[go pak go]

The NFC QB scene is down and unproven. I wouldn't be surprised if Love is in that next tier behind Hurts and Prescott for NFC QBs.

[YoHoChecko]

In terms of comps to current players... first thing that came to mind for me was '22 Danny Dimes--haven't done any digging into whether that makes sense comparatively. But athletic guy who uses his arm more than feet, manages an offense more than dominates it, had a long way to go on accuracy and decision-making coming into the league but put it together with a new coach last year--Love can put it together with a new opportunity and a year under Clements at QB coach.

[TheSkeptic]

I do not expect Love to be as good as either Rodgers or Favre or even Majik. Those 3 had more talent than Love has. But I expect Love to be a good game manager, to take what the D gives him, to hand the ball to Jones or Dillon and let them and the Oline take the steam out of the opposing D. To make the 10 yard throw to Watson or Reed and watch them tag on YAC. To make the 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5 to the new TE's or a screen pass to the RB. To be careful with the ball but to also understand that punting is a failure by the QB and almost as bad as an interception.

This is a good O. Last season the Oline was not healthy. Watson missed half the season before he got healthy and then Doubs got hurt. Jones and Dillon did not have great years because the blocking was not consistent. Right now, the O looks the best it has been in a long time. Love does not need to win games, he just needs not to lose them. And that is precisely what he will do, just win.

As for comparison, well my all time favorite Packer. Bart Starr. Never had the greatest arm like Unitas, but good enough to make tough passes. Never a scrambler like Tarkington, but not a target for Dlinemen either. Just a leader. Just a winner. Just a teammate.

[APB]

I think Love performs better than:

Deshaun Watson
Derek Carr
Russell Wilson
Mac Jones (or whoever starts in NE)
Jimmy Garoppolo
Kenny Pickett
Justin Fields
Ryan Tannehill

List not all inclusive. These are just some established guys that aren't under the scrutiny Love currently is.

I also believe Love performs relatively on par with, among others, 2022 Aaron Rodgers.

[APB]

As for comparison, well my all time favorite Packer. Bart Starr. Never had the greatest arm like Unitas, but good enough to make tough passes. Never a scrambler like Tarkington, but not a target for Dlinemen either. Just a leader. Just a winner. Just a teammate.

Prepare to be disappointed, bro...

[BF004]

Honestly, Jalen Hurts is the only one I know will be better.

On the fence with Dak, but lost Noah Brown, Dalton Shultz, McGovern and Zeke. Hard to lose 4 starters on O and not feel it. Although they probably upgraded from Brown to Cooks the 6 games he’ll play, but still.

Not expecting pro bowl, but also wouldn’t be that hard to be in the top 3 of NFC QBs this year.

Like 24-26 TD’s could probably get you there.

[Yoop]

we hope Love exceeds the norm, which is that on average first round drafted QB's break even, 50% do well, 50 % don't.

https://www.insider.com/nfl-draft-first ... acks-busts

what gives Love a better chance was sitting behind a established vet for 3 years and like that vet was given time needed for the game to slow down for him.

I think there are to many variables to predict just how well other QB's will do this year to compare Love with except to say I think our offense is in better shape this year then last so that should also help him.

[NCF]

In terms of comps to current players... first thing that came to mind for me was '22 Danny Dimes--haven't done any digging into whether that makes sense comparatively. But athletic guy who uses his arm more than feet, manages an offense more than dominates it, had a long way to go on accuracy and decision-making coming into the league but put it together with a new coach last year--Love can put it together with a new opportunity and a year under Clements at QB coach.

Pulled up the passing leaders from 2022... and your description sounds along the lines of what I was thinking, but more confidence/swag/leadership than Danny Dimes. Honestly, and don't let this rock your boat, what about 2022 Aaron Rodgers but more confined by offensive system? Maybe a little Jared Goff, as well?

[BF004]

Can’t remember who said it or when, but a few years ago someone said a smaller less physical Josh Allen.

Can’t unsee that now. Got the big time arm, similar athleticism, both underperformed in college, at a smaller program, had ‘accuracy issues’, both surrounded by subpar talent. Both drafted completely on potential, long arms, big hands.

Both had a pretty slow delivery in college, Josh had the tools and really needed to reinvent himself. Now that comparison ends both like their Sophomore season in the NFL. We’ll see if Jordan and staff can develop those natural tools and if he has it between the ears.

image.png (292.55 KiB) Viewed 9018 times

[Drj820]

In terms of comps to current players... first thing that came to mind for me was '22 Danny Dimes--haven't done any digging into whether that makes sense comparatively. But athletic guy who uses his arm more than feet, manages an offense more than dominates it, had a long way to go on accuracy and decision-making coming into the league but put it together with a new coach last year--Love can put it together with a new opportunity and a year under Clements at QB coach.

Pulled up the passing leaders from 2022... and your description sounds along the lines of what I was thinking, but more confidence/swag/leadership than Danny Dimes. Honestly, and don't let this rock your boat, what about 2022 Aaron Rodgers but more confined by offensive system? Maybe a little Jared Goff, as well?

I havent noticed this confidence and leadership yet. Hopefully I will soon.

[Yoop]

I do not expect Love to be as good as either Rodgers or Favre or even Majik. Those 3 had more talent than Love has. But I expect Love to be a good game manager, to take what the D gives him, to hand the ball to Jones or Dillon and let them and the Oline take the steam out of the opposing D. To make the 10 yard throw to Watson or Reed and watch them tag on YAC. To make the 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5 to the new TE's or a screen pass to the RB. To be careful with the ball but to also understand that punting is a failure by the QB and almost as bad as an interception.

This is a good O. Last season the Oline was not healthy. Watson missed half the season before he got healthy and then Doubs got hurt. Jones and Dillon did not have great years because the blocking was not consistent. Right now, the O looks the best it has been in a long time. Love does not need to win games, he just needs not to lose them. And that is precisely what he will do, just win.

As for comparison, well my all time favorite Packer. Bart Starr. Never had the greatest arm like Unitas, but good enough to make tough passes. Never a scrambler like Tarkington, but not a target for Dlinemen either. Just a leader. Just a winner. Just a teammate.

Bart was better then Johnny U. John played for a pass first team, Baltimore won passing the ball, GB won running it, just saying that that changes the scope of how these two QB's are compared, imo it sheds some confusion on just how accurate Starr was, and he was very accurate, Starr had some great receivers in Dale, McGee and Dowler, but Johnny U did as well with Raymond Berry, arguably on the level of Hudson, and those two dominated, also had Lenny Moore.

whatever I think your short changing your Fav Packer Skeptic

here are stats for each

https://www.footballdb.com/players/john ... -unitajo01


https://www.footballdb.com/players/john ... -unitajo01

[NCF]

In terms of comps to current players... first thing that came to mind for me was '22 Danny Dimes--haven't done any digging into whether that makes sense comparatively. But athletic guy who uses his arm more than feet, manages an offense more than dominates it, had a long way to go on accuracy and decision-making coming into the league but put it together with a new coach last year--Love can put it together with a new opportunity and a year under Clements at QB coach.

Pulled up the passing leaders from 2022... and your description sounds along the lines of what I was thinking, but more confidence/swag/leadership than Danny Dimes. Honestly, and don't let this rock your boat, what about 2022 Aaron Rodgers but more confined by offensive system? Maybe a little Jared Goff, as well?

I havent noticed this confidence and leadership yet. Hopefully I will soon.

Did you watch the presser yesterday? Compare/contrast that to anything you have ever seen from Daniel Jones. You are not going to see it if you do not want to.

[YoHoChecko]

Pulled up the passing leaders from 2022... and your description sounds along the lines of what I was thinking, but more confidence/swag/leadership than Danny Dimes. Honestly, and don't let this rock your boat, what about 2022 Aaron Rodgers but more confined by offensive system? Maybe a little Jared Goff, as well?

Can’t remember who said it or when, but a few years ago someone said a smaller less physical Josh Allen.

Can’t unsee that now. Got the big time arm, similar athleticism, both underperformed in college, at a smaller program, had ‘accuracy issues’, both surrounded by subpar talent. Both drafted completely on potential, long arms, big hands.

Both had a pretty slow delivery in college, Josh had the tools and really needed to reinvent himself. Now that comparison ends both like their Sophomore season in the NFL. We’ll see if Jordan and staff can develop those natural tools and if he has it between the ears.

It's interesting because I was thinking about QBs who had solid to successful seasons despite completion percentages around 64-65% rather than 67+ because for whatever reason, that was my mental prior expectation.

And Josh Allen, '22 Rodgers, and Goff all fit nicely in there. So all three of us seem to be thinking somewhat similarly here, in a forum rarity.

Obviously, Allen feels like more of a stretch (and I'm not sure that athletic numbers like RAS have much to do with QB performances, but it worked out). The comparison is fairly valis, especially if you consider what Allen was coming out.

Now we have to see if the Clements/MLF combo can be a Daboll influence (Allen and Daniel Jones fit here), but the reason I loved MLF as a prospective HC in the first place was because almost everywhere he went, the QBs involved played their best under him. That is now true of Aaron Rodgers, as well. Clements, too, has a nice track record. So the combo of the two should mean that if there's juice to squeeze from Love, they should get it.

I'm still highly optimistic but with reservations that there's a chance that something mentally or technically just isn't going to be there, and he might just be a guy at the position. You never know. But I think the MLF-Clements combo should have at least as much reason for optimism as guys like Brian Daboll and now Shane Steichen seem to elicit around the league.

[YoHoChecko]

Also, this feels like the right place to mention that when we were getting little glimpses of Love, I saw a lot of Love/Fields similarities. I think if Love were forced to play early, they would have looked a lot alike. I think if Fields had a consistent coaching staff of MLF and Clements working with him throughout his first 3 years, Fields would look a lot better now.

I think it will be interesting to follow their respective developments. I know I am biased towards the sit&learn method of QB development (not necessarily for 3 years, like we tend to do), but the futures of Love and of Fields (an arbitrary choice, I admit, but one in the division with what i would deem as similar overall talent entering the league) will be a nice data point to monitor in that discussion.

[Captain_Ben]

I believe that based on what we have seen from Love, he has at least enough talent to lead a team with a very strong supporting cast deep into the playoffs. Plug someone with his talent into a roster like what the 49ers have and they probably won't miss a beat. The problem is that I believe that different franchises have their own unique cultures/identities/blueprints for success. With the Packers, success has always started with outstanding quarterback play. It is engrained in the culture. Not saying it's impossible to cultivate a "Ravens-Trent Dilfer type situation," but it would be a zag from who we have been, historically. So if the consensus ultimately becomes that Love is Daniel Jones 2.0, odds are I will not be happy.

[Scott4Pack]

I believe that based on what we have seen from Love, he has at least enough talent to lead a team with a very strong supporting cast deep into the playoffs. Plug someone with his talent into a roster like what the 49ers have and they probably won't miss a beat. The problem is that I believe that different franchises have their own unique cultures/identities/blueprints for success. With the Packers, success has always started with outstanding quarterback play. It is engrained in the culture. Not saying it's impossible to cultivate a "Ravens-Trent Dilfer type situation," but it would be a zag from who we have been, historically. So if the consensus ultimately becomes that Love is Daniel Jones 2.0, odds are I will not be happy.

What you say is true. Yet, the offensive system managed by MLF specifically is geared to teams that require modest performance from the QB. Love could legitimately be an “average” QB and still succeed in MLF’s system. That is, I think, perhaps a good measuring stick/expectation for Love’s first year of starting.

[Yoop]

I believe that based on what we have seen from Love, he has at least enough talent to lead a team with a very strong supporting cast deep into the playoffs. Plug someone with his talent into a roster like what the 49ers have and they probably won't miss a beat. The problem is that I believe that different franchises have their own unique cultures/identities/blueprints for success. With the Packers, success has always started with outstanding quarterback play. It is engrained in the culture. Not saying it's impossible to cultivate a "Ravens-Trent Dilfer type situation," but it would be a zag from who we have been, historically. So if the consensus ultimately becomes that Love is Daniel Jones 2.0, odds are I will not be happy.

What you say is true. Yet, the offensive system managed by MLF specifically is geared to teams that require modest performance from the QB. Love could legitimately be an “average” QB and still succeed in MLF’s system. That is, I think, perhaps a good measuring stick/expectation for Love’s first year of starting.

well the QB is still required to read a defense and make plays, but getting back to pre snap motion it sure has helped us to be very good running the football, in that sense yes it does take some of the pressure off the QB by freezing a pass rush

this article is a couple year old now, but it shows how we've just about tripled our pre snap motion since 2019 Lafleurs first season, if Rodgers didn't like the motion it didn't stop us from using it, and even if he didn't like it the success using it can't be denied

Look no further than the usage of pre-snap motions and shifts. Green Bay is currently using motions and shifts on 60.9 percent of its offensive plays (fourth-most in the NFL).

Even more impressive is where this offense came from just two years ago. In McCarthy’s final season in Green Bay in 2018, the Packers finished 30th in using motion at a 30.2 percent rate. The offense made the slow climb back to the middle of the pack in LaFleur’s first season by using motion 47.3 percent, which ranked 14th in the NFL.

looking at these run stats, I'd say motion is here to stay


Yards per carry

6.3 (1st) motion
3.3 (29th) no motion
Explosive runs (10-plus yards)
13 (3rd) motion
5 (28th) no motion
Yards before contact
2.6 (1st) motion
0.6 (27th) no motion

theres lots more very good info if your interested.


https://theathletic.com/2137399/2020/10 ... ense-with-