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#4 WR
Posted: 15 May 2023 16:51
by BF004
Seems like the top looks pretty set off expectation. Watson, Doubs and Reed.
Who you like to step up this year after that?
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 15 May 2023 17:01
by YoHoChecko
I think it'll be Wicks, but it wouldn't surprise me, even, if DeBose surpasses him. Both are slower possession/contested catch receivers. Wicks apparently struggled learning the new scheme at UVA his final year. Both have some fun "my ball" mentality, but DuBose seems even more of that.
I think Toure is more of a plug if various guys get injured--like he'll fill in for Reed or Doubs more than he'll have a role of his own. I still think he has a nice possible future in the league, but I also still think it's a role player for a while. Nothing really I can offer as support to this sentiment. Just my hunch.
I LOVED Melton coming out, but I think Reed makes him almost entirely redundant. I'm pulling for him to find a role--which to me would be Watson's backup on jet sweets and motions, Reed's backup in the slot. But I think Reed will take some of Watson's motion and Toure will be Reed's primary backup. Toure just offers so much more polish and formation flexibility as a receiver compared to Melton, who would be slot/gadget/ST only. But he does have that good good speed.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 06:51
by TheSkeptic
I chose Toure. 4th receiver is not a starter or even a rotational player and will rarely be on the field if everyone is healthy. After Watson, Doubs and Reed the next target will be a TE and then a RB. There is too much talent in the backfield to go with 4 WR's on the field at the same time.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 07:01
by NCF
I am super excited for Reed, but I think the reality is that it is most likely him. I think Toure is going to get the bulk of the #3 looks in 2023 with Reed breaking out in 2024. Reed will get looks, too, but I think it is going to be really tough for anyone else to get looks outside of that top 4.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 07:05
by Pugger
We may select up to six options??
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 08:04
by YoHoChecko
NCF wrote: ↑16 May 2023 07:01
I am super excited for Reed, but I think the reality is that it is most likely him. I think Toure is going to get the bulk of the #3 looks in 2023 with Reed breaking out in 2024. Reed will get looks, too, but I think it is going to be really tough for anyone else to get looks outside of that top 4.
I think that’s too much deference given to a 2nd-year 7th round pick who has only 5 catches as a rookie. I would be shocked if Toure is slotted ahead of Reed still by week one.
I imagine Reed’s playtime and target share will be reminiscent of Jennings and Davante as rookies. 35-45 catches and a solid role in the rotation. I still see Toure competing with the other late rounders for prominent backup roles.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 08:08
by NCF
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑16 May 2023 08:04
NCF wrote: ↑16 May 2023 07:01
I am super excited for Reed, but I think the reality is that it is most likely him. I think Toure is going to get the bulk of the #3 looks in 2023 with Reed breaking out in 2024. Reed will get looks, too, but I think it is going to be really tough for anyone else to get looks outside of that top 4.
I think that’s too much deference given to a 2nd-year 7th round pick who has only 5 catches as a rookie. I would be shocked if Toure is slotted ahead of Reed still by week one.
I imagine Reed’s playtime and target share will be reminiscent of Jennings and Davante as rookies. 35-45 catches and a solid role in the rotation. I still see Toure competing with the other late rounders for prominent backup roles.
You're an evidence guy. The Packers have built Toure up quite a bit, unprompted. I think I agree with your usage and production estimation for Reed, but I expect kind of a similar output for Toure. I just think Toure might get more of the seniority snaps early on if they are on similar levels.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 08:17
by Labrev
NCF wrote: ↑16 May 2023 07:01
I am super excited for Reed, but I think the reality is that it is most likely him. I think Toure is going to get the bulk of the #3 looks in 2023 with Reed breaking out in 2024. Reed will get looks, too, but I think it is going to be really tough for anyone else to get looks outside of that top 4.
Agreed, I think Toure will be the default WR3 when camp rolls around. They always give the most senior players the first crack at available reps, and a lot of guys in the building seem to think very highly of him.
And I think Toure is a good enough receiver that he will hold onto the role for a while. He had a nice camp and preseason last year, plus a few nice plays in regular season. He also seemed to have good rapport with Love.
That said, I also think it's only a matter of time before Reed begins to be used interchangeably with him and then ultimately overtakes him.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 08:23
by Labrev
I also wonder if the correct answer to this thread is actually Musgrave. I expect some mix of Toure and Reed as WR3 and 4, one more than the other at different points in the year, but then I think your next best receiver might just be Musgrave.
I expect him to be used as a Move TE early, which in my mind is basically a WR.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 08:30
by wallyuwl
Labrev wrote: ↑16 May 2023 08:23
I also wonder if the correct answer to this thread is actually Musgrave. I expect some mix of Toure and Reed as WR3 and 4, one more than the other at different points in the year, but then I think your next best receiver might just be Musgrave.
I expect him to be used as a Move TE early, which in my mind is basically a WR.
Maybe. But he doesn't have a ton of college experience and TE take a while in the league to be productive. Maybe by December.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 08:39
by TheSkeptic
Labrev wrote: ↑16 May 2023 08:17
NCF wrote: ↑16 May 2023 07:01
I am super excited for Reed, but I think the reality is that it is most likely him. I think Toure is going to get the bulk of the #3 looks in 2023 with Reed breaking out in 2024. Reed will get looks, too, but I think it is going to be really tough for anyone else to get looks outside of that top 4.
Agreed, I think Toure will be the default WR3 when camp rolls around. They always give the most senior players the first crack at available reps, and a lot of guys in the building seem to think very highly of him.
And I think Toure is a good enough receiver that he will hold onto the role for a while. He had a nice camp and preseason last year, plus a few nice plays in regular season.
He also seemed to have good rapport with Love.
That said, I also think it's only a matter of time before Reed begins to be used interchangeably with him and then ultimately overtakes him.
Yes and the prior QB had his issues with young WR's and after having to swallow his pride about throwing to Watson and Doubs was not about to look for another rookie.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 09:03
by BF004
Pugger wrote: ↑16 May 2023 07:05
We may select up to six options??
power to the people
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 09:44
by YoHoChecko
I definitely have heard the casual mentions of Toure among those on and around the team. And last year, I read into things like that VERY hard. It led me to believe that Watkins was his same explosive self and Winfree had a real role on this team--maybe even in the top 3.
So suffice it to say that I read a little less into words of confidence given out in May to a guy whose competition has yet to make it through a minicamp when the unprompted praise is given. I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.
But I'll also freely admit I'm operating on a hunch, as I said earlier. I don't have evidence. But it FEELS to me like too much deference to a 7th round pick who didn't actually show anything on the field last year--he has upside and I have long called him a developmental talent with an Adam Thielan upside. That's high praise for a 7th round pick!
But to me, and here's where I get super editorial, Toure seems like a guy who will make good use of the opportunties he receives and who will slowly see his role expand from backing up a specific guy to flashing when he's on the field to having a package for when he's in the game and may eventually be a starter before his 4 years is up.
Reed seems like the kind of guy who sees what he wants and takes what's his. And he's going to walk in and take that job. Because he's better, he's more confident, and he's a "my ball" guy. And I think he'll prevail quickly. I don't think he'll be eased in or held off by Toure any more than Doubs was eased in and held off by Watkins.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 12:32
by TheSkeptic
Toure found himself in a tough spot last year having to compete with Watson and Doubs. That was not his fault. Early in the season we all had hopes for Watkins too and Lazard and Cobb were good players. Even Winfree, though he is no longer a Packer is still in the NFL. With that roster, Rodgers cannot be blamed for ignoring Toure if in fact he did.
Toure's fate is in his own hands, baring injury. If he totally dedicates himself to his profession this offseason, training to be a little faster, a little quicker, a little stronger and a little smarter there is no reason why he won't be WR#4 (Reed is likely to be #3). He might even wind up being the starting slot rather then Reed or the starting WR2 rather than Doubs.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 13:36
by go pak go
Brian Gutekunst and Matt LeFluer bring up Samori Toure a LOT unprompted in their press conference answers. Seems they always go out of their way to praise Toure.
I think right now he is the front runner for the #4 spot.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 13:44
by wallyuwl
go pak go wrote: ↑16 May 2023 13:36
Brian Gutekunst and Matt LeFluer bring up Samori Toure a LOT unprompted in their press conference answers. Seems they always go out of their way to praise Toure.
I think right now he is the front runner for the #4 spot.
Media only ever asks about Watson and Doubs. Gute and MLF do always bring up Toure as well.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 16:25
by YoHoChecko
Is this conversation (the useful parts) about belief in experience versus talent? Like would most 7th round players be ahead in year two of 2nd or 5th round players in year one?
It is it specific to what we’ve seen in camp and preseason with Toure, plus some tan comments along the way?
Did the people who put a lot of stock in Toure being brought up unprompted put the same stock in Winfree last year? I did, and I found it to be a mistake. Sometimes offseason coach speak is offseason coach speak.
Real questions. Not aggressive accusatory questions. I know online tone is tricky
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 16:25
by texas
I picked Wicks over Toure. Idk I've heard it a million times with these low round picks that everyone always praises. The guys with the big time talent don't need to be praised in press conferences for people to know that they are good.
But that being said, this is #4 WR we're talking about, so that just might be a good spot for Toure. Definitely rooting for him and I actually thought his few appearances from last year looked good, if I am remembering correctly.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 17:11
by go pak go
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑16 May 2023 16:25
Is this conversation (the useful parts) about belief in experience versus talent? Like would most 7th round players be ahead in year two of 2nd or 5th round players in year one?
It is it specific to what we’ve seen in camp and preseason with Toure, plus some tan comments along the way?
Did the people who put a lot of stock in Toure being brought up unprompted put the same stock in Winfree last year? I did, and I found it to be a mistake. Sometimes offseason coach speak is offseason coach speak.
Real questions. Not aggressive accusatory questions. I know online tone is tricky
I enjoyed watching Toure in preseason and games last year. I like his body shape and I liked his production with the limited snaps he received.
I too liked Winfree. It didn't work out but it could have just as easily worked out had a play here or there gone differently and changed the confdence/chemistry.
Overall we are talking a number 4 receiver. I know this forum puts tremendous pressure on #4 WR production but at the least, I am excited to watch a great battle for the #4 spot between Toure, Melton, Wicks, and Dubose.
Re: #4 WR
Posted: 16 May 2023 18:19
by Labrev
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑16 May 2023 16:25
Is this conversation (the useful parts) about belief in experience versus talent? Like would most 7th round players be ahead in year two of 2nd or 5th round players in year one?
I seem to recall that Cole Van Lanen, who we drafted in the 7th, started 'camp higher on the pecking order than the guys we just drafted, Sean Rhyan and Zach Tom.
Tom turned out to be a far better player, but seniority meant that CVL was given first dibs at open spots and the reps before Tom outplayed and overtook him. Yet we probably expected the same of Rhyan, a Day 2 pick and probably more gifted athlete, much the same way many here will assume the same with Reed over Toure. Yet that didn't happen.
So I expect WR3 will similarly "default" to Toure until Reed *takes* the job from him. I think that will happen around mid-season, give or take a few weeks. You never know with rookies until they show it for sure on the field, though. We expect them all to be a Doubs, until some turn out to be a Rhyan.
Even Doubs iirc got ahead of Watkins mainly because the latter was injured like always as was Watson, while the former was having an excellent camp and preseason, so Watkins's seniority didn't matter as Doubs was just one of the only guys who was available, and then we still unnecessarily played Watkins for a short while before sensibly ending that charade.
Also (again iirc) Toure was kind of considered a steal in Round 7, and we may have even considered drafting him higher if not for age and having drafted two *really* good WR prospects in the same draft class, but a flyer 7th on him was too good to pass up.
It is it specific to what we’ve seen in camp and preseason with Toure, plus some tan comments along the way?
Yes, Toure played quite well through 'camp and preseason. He also seemed to have an especially good connection with Love, who notably is our new starting QB. So it's not like we are simply going off the fact he was a recent draft pick, he did show some ability.
He will also have a leg up on the other guys with a year of familiarity with scheme, a year of NFL strength and conditioning, and all those benefits of being on the team for a year. I get that that usually doesn't mean a hill of beans next to a more talented player, which Reed appears to be and a few of the other guys might be, but it's still a rookie we're talking about. He could be Doubs, but he could be Rhyan. We can never know for sure until the pads come on and the bullets are live, during which time, Toure's year of experience gives him at least some small advantages.
But I think the thing for me with Toure above all else is.... some guys just seem to have -a feel- for their position and as football players in general. And that's where this gets "squishy" and I can't really articulate it objectively, in the same vein you said you cannot in the opposite direction, but Toure seems to me to have "it" as a receiver and a really good feel for the position in general when I see him, much unlike Winfree who has nice athletic traits across the board but lacks skill at his craft to do more than the occasional high-upside flash.
I can't really elaborate on it any further than that, but... there it is.