Paco's thread on the 2023 season

[paco]

*Note - I don't actually expect anyone to read this or comment on it. But all are welcome to*
I wanted a place to get out all my thoughts, logical or not. Will start it off with some trivia...
When was the last time the Packers finished a season with less than 4 wins?

Spoiler

1958

Talking with a friend this morning trying to figure out who to blame for various things. Logical answer is I don't know or everyone. Or maybe I just go Lupe and blame Murphy because he's at the top. How do you decide? Is it the players who aren't doing what they are told? Is it the coaches for not doing their job? Is it Gutey for not finding the talent? Is it Murphy for looking like a muppet?

MLF - Do something to have this team ready in the 1st half. Isn't this what you practice for all week? It would make more sense to me if a young team was good on the 1st couple of drives and had issues adjusting later than the reverse.
Love - Can't hit anyone deep, takes the deep shot too often when something else better is there, poor decision making on the type of pass to throw
O-line - can't run block, penalties, missed assignments, Bakhtiari.
RB's - all suck accept Jones, but he's hardly playing.
WR's - wrong routes, dropping balls, not getting open, only been outside the womb for an hour and a half.
Pass rushers - can't get to or hit the QB other than Gary.
D in general - Can't tackle or take the ball away.
Team in general - can't stay healthy. Why is our injury report always longer than everyone else's?

But I don't think this team is beyond hope either. Love has shown he's got the goods. The questions is can he put it all together and do the good stuff consistently? It is young and still has time to show improvement. That's all I want the rest of the season, show improvement the next month or 2. Stop running wrong routes. Block the right guys. Catch the ball. Break a tackle. Make the right decisions. If they can start cutting back on the mistakes and show like they are moving in a positive direction, I'll be happy (win-lose-draw). But as of now, its getting worse.

As this is getting extremely long and people aren't reading it anyway, I'll wrap up with this. If this team does finish as a bottom 3 team and has a legit shot at a top QB, do they take it? How long do you give Love to show he deserves a longer shot? Thanksgiving? End of the year? In my mind, he should be guaranteed the next 11 starts, but that's it.
If you decide its time to move on, does Gutey, MLF and company get that chance? How many coaching staffs or GM's get the shot at 2 QBs?

I'm not going to put the blame on any 1 person or group. Its a collective effort that has lead us to what we are today. Are we destined for a strip-down and restart? Or do we have the core that will grow together and be ready to do good things next season? I don't have the answer yet and I think there is still time to answer that question. I'll have a more solid opinion when I'm eating turkey and stuffing in November.

[BF004]

If this team does finish as a bottom 3 team and has a legit shot at a top QB, do they take it?

Without a pretty drastic turnaround where Love starts looking pretty good any everyone looks bad and we end up picking that low, wouldn't even consider an alternative.

[paco]

As I ranted, I forgot stuff, of course.

Joe Barry - I don't care that the defense gave up less than 20 points the last 2 games. It was the Raiders and Broncos. We aren't doing that against a good team. Still playing with a bunch of safeties and small LBers in goalline situations. Still can't get to the QB. Still can't tackle. Still can't take the ball away. Still lining up 10 yards off the receiver (though a little less as of late). Still guys scambling around not knowing what to do. Still guys like Preston Smith ending up covering a WR.

He's not good. Not sure he'd even be good if he had a defense full of players like the Eagles.

I also mentioned injuries, but didn't expand much. There's got to be something with our trainers, conditioning staff, something, right? Or is it the type of guys we draft? Hammy's are the joke, but plenty of knee and calf this year too. Yes, injuries happen, but seems to border on rediculousness each and every year.

[paco]

If this team does finish as a bottom 3 team and has a legit shot at a top QB, do they take it?

Without a pretty drastic turnaround where Love starts looking pretty good any everyone looks bad and we end up picking that low, wouldn't even consider an alternative.

I have to agree with this. I don't know if Maye, Williams, or McCarthy are the answer. But if Love is the same version of himself at Thanksgiving or later as he is today, you have to do it.

[paco]

With Watson hurt and I assuming missing more time, I hope this opens up more opportunities for Wicks and Reed. Wicks needs to be on the field more and getting the ball.

I also want to see more Kraft and less Deguara. Kraft flashes occasionally on blocking. Throw him in and give him the opportunites. It'll look ugly at times, but that doesn't matter now.

To that effect, I saw a tweet from someone saying the same thing. Let it loose. Let Love and the guys go and see what they can do. It's going to be ugly, but maybe they can find something that works. Because right now, there is no identity. Whatever box MLF is trying to fit them into isn't working.

[wallyuwl]

If this team does finish as a bottom 3 team and has a legit shot at a top QB, do they take it?

Without a pretty drastic turnaround where Love starts looking pretty good any everyone looks bad and we end up picking that low, wouldn't even consider an alternative.

Gute will never take the shot. He will draft a defensive player. I put about a 1% chance he would draft Marvin Jr. 0% chance he would take a top QB even if fell in his lap.

[paco]

If this team does finish as a bottom 3 team and has a legit shot at a top QB, do they take it?

Without a pretty drastic turnaround where Love starts looking pretty good any everyone looks bad and we end up picking that low, wouldn't even consider an alternative.

Gute will never take the shot. He will draft a defensive player. I put about a 1% chance he would draft Marvin Jr. 0% chance he would take a top QB even if fell in his lap.

I can see your point on a WR, but what's he done to make you think he wouldn't pick a QB? If he's given an assurance he gets to stick around with another new QB, I think he does it. If he's not, then I can see him going another route and sticking with Love.

[Labrev]

I also mentioned injuries, but didn't expand much. There's got to be something with our trainers, conditioning staff, something, right? Or is it the type of guys we draft? Hammy's are the joke, but plenty of knee and calf this year too. Yes, injuries happen, but seems to border on rediculousness each and every year.

On our mini-bye before the Raiders game, the Packers did not have a padded practice.

So I am wondering if the practice intensity is too low, due maybe to preference, but perhaps also because the inexperienced youth require more time to drill in the Xs and Os... and then the hits in games are like way more than they are used to.

Sports medicine and this sort of stuff is way out of my expertise, just seems counter-intuitive to a layman like me.

[wallyuwl]

I can see your point on a WR, but what's he done to make you think he wouldn't pick a QB? If he's given an assurance he gets to stick around with another new QB, I think he does it. If he's not, then I can see him going another route and sticking with Love.

Nothing in particular, except that he just isn't a very good drafter and makes poor decisions in general as GM. I guess not picking up Love's 5th year option and giving a lukewarm extension are signs he might be open to moving on from Love, but IMO he will give Love through 2024.

[paco]

My next thing is the offensive line. Time to stop this crap and make a change. I still have hope for Walker, but he's floundering out there now. Time to get Nijman and Jones in there and Myers out (maybe Runyan too, he hasn't repaid my loyalty).

Put Tom at center and put Nijman and Jones as the tackles. How exactly has Nijman gotten in the dog house and relegated to ST duty? We didn't play him last year and it cost us. Is it costing us again now?

[paco]

I can see your point on a WR, but what's he done to make you think he wouldn't pick a QB? If he's given an assurance he gets to stick around with another new QB, I think he does it. If he's not, then I can see him going another route and sticking with Love.

Nothing in particular, except that he just isn't a very good drafter and makes poor decisions in general as GM. I guess not picking up Love's 5th year option and giving a lukewarm extension are signs he might be open to moving on from Love, but IMO he will give Love through 2024.

I get that. His last several drafts haven't inspired much confidence. I'm still hopeful on 2023.

For 2022, given their draft positions, I like Doubs and Tom. I like Walker a good deal, but LBer in the 1st rarely works out. Enagabare is fine for 5th rounder.

2021 was awful. Hoping Stokes can return healthy eventually and salvage it a bit. Slaton is fine for teh 5th rounder, as is McDuffie as a 6th.

2020 is all on Love at this point. Runyan had a chance to make it a hit, but doesn't appear to be going that direction.

[wallyuwl]

For 2022, given their draft positions, I like Doubs and Tom. I like Walker a good deal, but LBer in the 1st rarely works out. Enagabare is fine for 5th rounder.

Doubs has regressed, but often WR do that look good their first year. Watson is a bust until he proves he can stay on the field. Wyatt is like 10 minutes younger than Kenny, but was drafted 6 years after, WTF was Gute thinking.

[paco]

For 2022, given their draft positions, I like Doubs and Tom. I like Walker a good deal, but LBer in the 1st rarely works out. Enagabare is fine for 5th rounder.

Doubs has regressed, but often WR do that look good their first year. Watson is a bust until he proves he can stay on the field. Wyatt is like 10 minutes younger than Kenny, but was drafted 6 years after, WTF was Gute thinking.

Wyatt was a strange one to me as well. Between the character concerns at the time (which haven't been an issue) and the age, I almost had him off the board. With all of that, you had to expect him to be a bigger force sooner. I like some of what he's flashed this year and think he still can be good. But not looking like that value is going to match his draft slot at this point.

[MY_TAKE]

Agreed with more than I disagreed with your post.

Love could still change my mind, but im getting the feeling he is an average QB. IT appears as though we will be picking high in the first round. IF I am a GM it would be hard not to take one of the top 3 QBS if available.

Not sure where we will be with the salary cap next year (im sure others have that figured out) but why not go after a really good free agent if one is available that fits the mold.
Look what Reggie White and Charles Woodson did for the Packers......just saying

[packman114]

I don't know why people are high on Walker. He hasn't shown me much. Not playing Yosh at LT in the playoffs cost us two chances at a Super Bowl and he should be out there again now. MLFs biggest mistakes has been evaluating his best 5 OL. He has consistently chosen wrong.

[TB4]

Agreed with more than I disagreed with your post.

Love could still change my mind, but im getting the feeling he is an average QB. IT appears as though we will be picking high in the first round. IF I am a GM it would be hard not to take one of the top 3 QBS if available.

Not sure where we will be with the salary cap next year (im sure others have that figured out) but why not go after a really good free agent if one is available that fits the mold.
Look what Reggie White and Charles Woodson did for the Packers......just saying

Im going to hope Love gets better with his accuracy and works on his anticipation. So far he hasnt shown much in those areas.

The Packers Organization will have to decide pretty quickly if Love is the guy because if the season goes down in total flames, then picking a top 3 qb will be essential. Then they can clear all salary cap issues this off-season. Pay Love one more year to be QB while the newly drafted 1st rounder QB learns, cut players that wont be around for the rebuild, trade players that can bring in more draft picks for next year's & future drafts, move up all dead money to next year & clear the books. Id also move on from all top front office executives, coaches and staff. They all had their chances and their philosophy/culture is way to vanilla for me. Im not saying I hate them, they have had their moments but the things they have overlooked or narratives they have tried to sell to the fans has been inconsistent and hypocritical ie: You cant say one minute that the salary cap issues is because you went all in with Rodgers and created this Salary Cap mess but then traded up for his replacement in 2020... that doesnt make sense. If you were all in then trade up and take Justin Jefferson. Also, this Organization has failed to add leaders. Not since Woodson has the defense had a leader and now after Rodgers, there is no leader on Offense. There is no one that can lead by example and the games missed by Players for soft injuries showcases that. Its like once a player makes a good play, he leaves with an injury or gets hurt in practice. Nobody really seems like they actually care and more of them seem like paycheck collectors. Very soft mentality. I just dont see this front office, coaches or players winning a Super Bowl together.

Also, we got Reggie White & Charles Woodson when Favre was the QB. Woodson also wanted to continue playing Cornerback and most teams were only offering the safety position to him, so he signed late with us. We have to overpay for free agents when we have HOF Qbs - how do you attract free agents when you have no qb and no leaders? You have to really overpay then. So I personally wouldnt even bother going after free agents until you 1. figure out the QB 2. Bring in new coaches with a tougher mentality 3. Draft your future leaders 4. Make sure all your cap issues are done and the balance sheet is clean. Otherwise you just risk being mediocre and thats worse than being really really bad. Spinning wheels with no hope is what this team is now. Soft, unimaginative and lacks the ingredients right now. Its okay - Rip the band-aid off, clean house and start the complete overhaul. Gonna be bad for a bit but thats okay.

[LombardiTime]

Talking with a friend this morning trying to figure out who to blame for various things. Logical answer is I don't know or everyone. Or maybe I just go Lupe and blame Murphy because he's at the top. How do you decide? Is it the players who aren't doing what they are told? Is it the coaches for not doing their job? Is it Gutey for not finding the talent? Is it Murphy for looking like a muppet?

I'm not going to put the blame on any 1 person or group. Its a collective effort that has lead us to what we are today. Are we destined for a strip-down and restart? Or do we have the core that will grow together and be ready to do good things next season? I don't have the answer yet and I think there is still time to answer that question. I'll have a more solid opinion when I'm eating turkey and stuffing in November.

I'd turn this analysis around a bit and ask Packer fans who they have confidence in to turn things around for the better, and why?

Murphy retires in July of 2025 so his time is all but up. I doubt many Packer fans see him as the key to a resurgence.

Gutey? I notice that the "in Gutey we trust crowd" among the fan base and even in the press has been a bit less vocal since the season began in comparison to how confident they were about his abilities during the offseason. Still, I think more Packer fans have faith in Gutey than any other person or aspect of the organization at the present time.

MLF and his coaching staff (including Joe Barry)? There seems to be a dwindling amount of support for MLF and that is in no small part due to his defensive coordinator.

The talent on the roster including but not limited to QB Jordan Love? There is still time for the roster generally and Love specifically to shine, but again I sense that there is more HOPE than there is faith among fans when it comes to the team's roster as currently constructed getting the present clown show turned around.

Personally, I think that the Packers are closer to a "strip-down and restart" than they are to a resurgence under the current President, GM, coaching staff, and roster.

[MY_TAKE]

Also, we got Reggie White & Charles Woodson when Favre was the QB. Woodson also wanted to continue playing Cornerback and most teams were only offering the safety position to him, so he signed late with us. We have to overpay for free agents when we have HOF Qbs - how do you attract free agents when you have no qb and no leaders? You have to really overpay then. So I personally wouldnt even bother going after free agents until you 1. figure out the QB 2. Bring in new coaches with a tougher mentality 3. Draft your future leaders 4. Make sure all your cap issues are done and the balance sheet is clean. Otherwise you just risk being mediocre and thats worse than being really really bad. Spinning wheels with no hope is what this team is now. Soft, unimaginative and lacks the ingredients right now. Its okay - Rip the band-aid off, clean house and start the complete overhaul. Gonna be bad for a bit but thats okay.

Much of what you said is fact or true. But, I did say "one that fits the mold". Not all free agents have to be over paid to be here or need a "hall of fame qb." They may have money for a change (not sure) if Bakhtiari comes off the books and were not paying crazy money to a high priced QB.

MY main point was that to win the Superbowl White and Woodson were arguably the most important pieces other than QB. They were flat out consistent playmakers. The 96 team had a crap load of free agents that kicked ass. So I think my point is somewhat reasonable. Ron Wolfe did it a abit differently and it worked at that time.

I should add that Woodson was arguably one of the most important pieces in that super bowl winning season. I realize he broke his collarbone just before halftime. I should also mention Clay Matthews in his prime was right there as a playmaker too and a big reason.

[TheSkeptic]

My next thing is the offensive line. Time to stop this crap and make a change. I still have hope for Walker, but he's floundering out there now. Time to get Nijman and Jones in there and Myers out (maybe Runyan too, he hasn't repaid my loyalty).

Put Tom at center and put Nijman and Jones as the tackles. How exactly has Nijman gotten in the dog house and relegated to ST duty? We didn't play him last year and it cost us. Is it costing us again now?

Nijman got into the doghouse vs the Lions in the last game last season. He was pathetic. Just plain pathetic. They pulled him at half time and put Tom in at RT and that Lions rookie never pressured Rodgers again.

Watch that game again, and pay attention to Nijman vs Tom. Frankly I would have cut his worthless azz 10 minutes after that game. But maybe they were hoping to trade him or something.

As for Jones, he is huge but moves like a bulldozer rather than like a modern tank. Maybe he could play RT but I am afraid he is way too slow to play LT. Can't say about Luke Tenuda but he is almost the same height and was 314 at his pro day vs 370 for Jones and likely a better athlete. Jones has been above 400 pounds in college and although he is likely down to 350 now, being that overweight in the past does not bode well for his future. Tenuda made the 53 but was put on IR the next day. Don't know his prognosis other than that it was an ankle injury. Oh, and Tenuda was a 6th round draft pick while Jones went undrafted

[CWIMM]

Not sure where we will be with the salary cap next year (im sure others have that figured out) but why not go after a really good free agent if one is available that fits the mold.

The Packers are currently slated to enter next offseason with the 20th most cap space in the league. That's not a huge amount of money available to spend on free agents. In addition I'm not convinced that would be a smart approach considering the makeup of the roster anyway.

Gutey? I notice that the "in Gutey we trust crowd" among the fan base and even in the press has been a bit less vocal since the season began in comparison to how confident they were about his abilities during the offseason. Still, I think more Packer fans have faith in Gutey than any other person or aspect of the organization at the present time.

I can't speak for other posters but I don't have a ton of confidence in Gutekunst being able to turn it around. Especially if Love doesn't work out as he hoped for.