Page 1 of 3
Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 12 May 2020 16:41
by British
Interesting article on a Rodgers trade in early 2021 by Andy Herman at Packer report. Excerpts below.
Full piece here
https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay-pac ... ssion=true
By trading Rodgers before the third league day in 2021, the Packers actually would open a window for Love to play under a really cheap contract and for Rodgers’ contract to be completely off the books. If the Packers were to trade Rodgers prior to the third day of the new league year in 2021, they would immediately absorb a $31,556,000 cap hit.
In taking all of the dead cap up front in 2021, the Packers would not pay anything to Aaron Rodgers in 2022 or 2023. This would open up two years of Jordan Love making between $3-$4 million per season and not paying Aaron Rodgers a dime.
That scenario would open up a massive cap savings in 2022, 2023, and 2024 that would allow the Packers to stack a team around Jordan Love when he’s ultra-inexpensive, and it could give them the flexibility to easily re-sign all five of their major free agents next offseason, including David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Kevin King, and Corey Linsley. (If they wanted to).
The second reason why this would make so much sense, is because in 2021, Aaron Rodgers would almost surely still have a LOT of trade value. In fact, it can be easily argued that the year in which he’d have the most trade value, would be 2021.
How much value would Aaron Rodgers have on a 3-year, $74 million dollar contract (averaging $24.7 million per year) with only $6.8 million in guaranteed money? In my estimation, the Packers could get up to two first-round picks in exchange for Rodgers.
So if you want to talk about surrounding Jordan Love with talent, and opening a potentially enormous window for success, how about paying Jordan Love next to nothing, re-signing all of your premium free agents, signing more free agents on the open market, and having two additional premium first round picks to use in 2021.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 12 May 2020 21:31
by go pak go
It primarily is pitted on two factors obviously.
1. How good does Jordan Love look? If he looks like he is ready (and Joe Philbin talked about when they were coaching the NFC in the Pro Bowl in January 2008 that they knew their backup on the Packers was better than all the quarterbacks in Honolulu) then I think this could make sense.
2. How good does Aaron Rodgers look? If we don't see a jump from Rodgers from last year I too would consider it. If we see more of October and Seahawks Rodgers next year I would say stick with Rodgers. Then again, if we see November and December Rodgers....will his trade value still persist? I guess I would have to imagine somebody would want him.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 12 May 2020 21:55
by Pckfn23
I read this today as well and am on the fence. I think to make it even remotely worthwhile they need to get a very high pick or multiple picks for him.
15% of the cap in 2021 used on a player not on the team sucks. It does save just under $5 million in 2021 and just under $40 million compared to keeping him for 2022. Cutting him in 2022 is still something like 8% of the cap in dead money. Still not great, but maybe palatable.
Then we also need to be sure Love is ready after 1 season.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 12 May 2020 22:47
by go pak go
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑12 May 2020 21:55
I read this today as well and am on the fence. I think to make it even remotely worthwhile they need to get a very high pick or multiple picks for him.
15% of the cap in 2021 used on a player not on the team sucks. It does save just under $5 million in 2021 and just under $40 million compared to keeping him for 2022. Cutting him in 2022 is still something like 8% of the cap in dead money. Still not great, but maybe palatable.
Then we also need to be sure Love is ready after 1 season.
Yeah it only makes sense for a few reasons.
1. Love is ready to go or at least ready to have like a Rodgers 2008 season
2. We don't think Rodgers is the man to take us anymore.
3. We get fantastic compensation (I say 2 1st rounders)
4. You kind of understand that it's not Super Bowl or bust in 2021, but that you're instead playing for 2022 and 2023.
So there are a lot of variables at play. Overall I think the best deal for us is to keep and go with Rodgers for at least another two likely 3 years. He's our quarterback. I believe in him.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 12 May 2020 23:02
by Drj820
i hope Andy gets the clicks he was looking for. He has earned them more than most who write the "things that will never actually happen" articles, by actually showing how the thing that will not happen, could happen. Not bad for click bait!
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 04:06
by TheSkeptic
I have been saying this for a while.
Love + Bak + Linsley + Jones + 2 high draft picks > Rodgers + Light + Patrick + Williams
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 06:49
by Yoop
I wonder, how many other GM's tossed over 30 mil. out the window to switch from a first ballot HOF QB to a virtual unproven 2nd year QB, or will our GM be the first?
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 06:58
by go pak go
Drj820 wrote: ↑12 May 2020 23:02
i hope Andy gets the clicks he was looking for. He has earned them more than most who write the "things that will never actually happen" articles, by actually showing how the thing that will not happen, could happen. Not bad for click bait!
And at least this has some thought and analysis into it unlike the vomit that any national talker spews out.
It's covid. It's offseason with no offseason.
I see no problem with these types of stories. It's something to talk about.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 07:58
by Packfntk
go pak go wrote: ↑13 May 2020 06:58
Drj820 wrote: ↑12 May 2020 23:02
i hope Andy gets the clicks he was looking for. He has earned them more than most who write the "things that will never actually happen" articles, by actually showing how the thing that will not happen, could happen. Not bad for click bait!
And at least this has some thought and analysis into it unlike the vomit that any national talker spews out.
It's covid. It's offseason with no offseason.
I see no problem with these types of stories. It's something to talk about.
Yeah, people are trying to dig into things and figure out anything they can to get a story. Rodgers is in Green and Gold until at least the end of the 2021 season, probably the end of the 2022 season. People are bored.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 07:59
by NCF
I read the article yesterday. It's OK. It succinctly lays out everything we have already discussed, ad nauseam, over the past three weeks.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 09:17
by BF004
Who might be willing to trade? Who might have a good enough team outside of QB, draft capital to spend on. 2-4 year QB fix, and cap space?
New Orleans, Indy, TB, New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Las Vegas, Chicago
Can envision scenarios for Cleveland, Carolina, Washington. Dallas if they don’t extend Dak and Aaron would agree to play under his current contract.
There is now way someone is giving two firsts IMO for someone to play 2-4 years. I think maybe a mid second is what we are looking at. Maybe a first if Aaron agrees not to renegotiate his contract.
I still think most likely scenario is Aaron is still our QB in 4 years for the 2023 season.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 09:19
by NCF
BF004 wrote: ↑13 May 2020 09:17
New England
Man, that would be wild.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 09:22
by Drj820
BF004 wrote: ↑13 May 2020 09:17
Who might be willing to trade? Who might have a good enough team outside of QB, draft capital to spend on. 2-4 year QB fix, and cap space?
New Orleans, Indy, TB, New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Las Vegas, Chicago
Can envision scenarios for Cleveland, Carolina, Washington. Dallas if they don’t extend Dak and Aaron would agree to play under his current contract.
There is now way someone is giving two firsts IMO for someone to play 2-4 years. I think maybe a mid second is what we are looking at. Maybe a first if Aaron agrees not to renegotiate his contract.
I still think most likely scenario is Aaron is still our QB in 4 years for the 2023 season.
yeah, few things:
1. if we are willing to move off him, that shows he isnt worth keeping to us and so we cant expect other teams to think he is worth 2 1s or something crazy high.
2. no guarantee the guys we would have the money to sign without Rodgers, would want to play for the packers anymore without rodgers.
3. I continue to say if we move on from Rodgers within 2 years of his new deal, then signing him to that deal when we didnt have to was such a collossal mistake that it should cost Gutey his job.
4. Like i said, i respect Hermans click bait here because he actually thought out his theory well. But its still just a thought exercise for a click, we arent trading rodgers after this year.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 09:25
by BF004
NCF wrote: ↑13 May 2020 09:19
BF004 wrote: ↑13 May 2020 09:17
New England
Man, that would be wild.
There are 5 teams I could legit see trading for him.
New Orleans and New England, because they are legit good and well coached and managed and may obviously need a QB and push for a few SB runs.
And then Washington and Las Vegas because they are who they are.
Denver because they do have some high end pieces and some real good receiving potential in Jeudy and Fant and Elway isn’t afraid to pull that trigger and it worked last time they got that HOF QB.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 09:41
by Yoop
well now lets see where would Rodgers be willing to go to after we tip him 31 mil to leave.
I can see the tight wad board of directors as they light the kindling under the hitching post they tie Murphy to as they watch 31 mi mi millions waltz out the door
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 13:26
by Carl Gerbschmidt
Yoop wrote: ↑13 May 2020 06:49
I wonder, how many other GM's tossed over 30 mil. out the window to switch from a first ballot HOF QB to a virtual unproven 2nd year QB, or will our GM be the first?
GM's that watch players practice.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 17:16
by bud fox
If we are getting 2 first rounders for Rodgers that means he would still be good so why trade him? Giving up on winning?
Secondly if we get 2 first rounders they will be late first rounders because it is Aaron Rodgers lol it will probably be 32 32
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 17:27
by Pckfn23
So which team is winning back to back Super Bowls that we are trading Rodgers to?
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 17:59
by bud fox
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑13 May 2020 17:27
So which team is winning back to back Super Bowls that we are trading Rodgers to?
Whoever we trade him to - the scenario is so unrealistic. The effort trying to make this work just shows how stupid the pick was.
The earliest we should've taken a QB is the 2023 draft.
Fans trying to defend this pick will tell you they would take Love over Joe Burrrow. Homers are nuts.
The whole thing is just political and does not make the team better. It gives coaching and management an opportunity to build their own story and satisfy their egos.
Re: Why an Aaron Rodgers trade could come sooner than you think
Posted: 13 May 2020 18:10
by Pckfn23
bud fox wrote: ↑13 May 2020 17:59
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑13 May 2020 17:27
So which team is winning back to back Super Bowls that we are trading Rodgers to?
Whoever we trade him to - the scenario is so unrealistic. The effort trying to make this work just shows how stupid the pick was.
The earliest we should've taken a QB is the 2023 draft.
Fans trying to defend this pick will tell you they would take Love over Joe Burrrow. Homers are nuts.
The whole thing is just political and does not make the team better. It gives coaching and management an opportunity to build their own story and satisfy their egos.
Which team is winning the Super Bowl in 2020 that we are trading Rodgers to that is going to win it again in 2021? You stated that these 2 first rounders are likely to be 32 and 32. Not sure how the Love pick got dragged into the answer to my question...