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Packers over the Decade
Posted: 16 Jun 2020 16:02
by YoHoChecko
ESPN is running a
review of each team over the decade by Football Outsiders and looking into trends and such.
Here's ours:
- image.png (23.73 KiB) Viewed 364 times
Offense: Obviously, the Packers' offense struggled whenever Aaron Rodgers got hurt. In 2013, the Packers ranked No. 2 on offense in the first half of the season, No. 19 in the second half. In 2017, the Packers ranked No. 10 on offense in the first half of the season, No. 21 in the second half. But the numbers also show something you can see in ESPN's QBR metric, which is that Rodgers simply hasn't been the superstar in the second half of the decade that he was in the first half. Last year, his QBR in the regular season dropped to 50.4, essentially average.
One thing that will surprise Packers fans: Green Bay has the highest average run offense DVOA of any team in the decade. The team ranked in the top 10 running the ball every year except 2012 (13th). Remember, we're measuring efficiency here, not totals. The Packers' running game was rarely well-regarded by conventional wisdom, but a strong offensive line and defenses forced to play the pass opened things up for the ground game to be one of the league's most efficient year after year.
Offensive outlook for 2020: With the Packers unable to add talent at receiver this offseason, it's hard to see the offense improving significantly from what we've seen the past couple of seasons: an offense that ranks in the top 10 but not at the top of the league.
Defense: Boing, boing, boing. The Packers have bounced around a lot on defense. They went from second in 2010 to 25th in 2011 and back to eighth in 2012 and then back down to 31st in 2013, all despite the same coordinator (Dom Capers) and the same bedrock players (Clay Matthews, B.J. Raji, Charles Woodson through 2012). Recent years had been more consistent but also below average until things improved again last season.
Defensive outlook for 2020: We expect the Packers' defense to decline and be below average again, but not among the worst in the league.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 16 Jun 2020 17:39
by Captain_Ben
Interesting information about the rushing offense. The only year I remember our running game being absolutely atrocious was the year of Alex Green.
Was that 2012? If so, I'm not surprised. We had a great running game with Lacy from 2013-2014.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 18 Jun 2020 13:49
by Pugger
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 18 Jun 2020 15:55
by BF004
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
Yeeup, why I have often said Ted had the right idea, going defense after defense after defense with draft picks. Just didn't draft well.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 18 Jun 2020 18:02
by Captain_Ben
BF004 wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 15:55
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
Yeeup, why I have often said Ted had the right idea, going defense after defense after defense with draft picks. Just didn't draft well.
But it's also weird to me that that 2010 offense was #7..... and so was last year's. But the 2010 offense was freaking loaded with talent.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 18 Jun 2020 21:48
by go pak go
Captain_Ben wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 18:02
BF004 wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 15:55
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
Yeeup, why I have often said Ted had the right idea, going defense after defense after defense with draft picks. Just didn't draft well.
But it's also weird to me that that 2010 offense was #7..... and so was last year's. But the 2010 offense was freaking loaded with talent.
We were also very dangerously close to not making the playoffs. In fact, I was essentially convinced after losing in Detroit Week 14 that our season was over.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 00:07
by Labrev
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
To be fair, we could have won it all in 2014 as well if our ST play was just competent during that Seahawks travesty. We had already played and beaten the eventual winner that year (NE).
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 05:10
by Raptorman
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
Don't be talking about that now. It's a myth about defenses.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 06:23
by BF004
Captain_Ben wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 18:02
BF004 wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 15:55
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
Yeeup, why I have often said Ted had the right idea, going defense after defense after defense with draft picks. Just didn't draft well.
But it's also weird to me that that 2010 offense was #7..... and so was last year's. But the 2010 offense was freaking loaded with talent.
It was. But also Tom Brady never won a Super Bowl without a top 5 D.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 10:46
by TheGreenMan
Has their ever been a Packers team, heck NFL team, that was that loaded at the receiving positions during our Super Bowl run?
Driver
Jennings
Nelson
James
Cobb (2011)
Finley
Quarless
Lee
Crabtree
Every time I go back to those years, it's no wonder our offense was unstoppable for a long time.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 10:54
by go pak go
TheGreenMan wrote: ↑19 Jun 2020 10:46
Has their ever been a Packers team, heck NFL team, that was that loaded at the receiving positions during our Super Bowl run?
Driver
Jennings
Nelson
James
Cobb (2011)
Finley
Quarless
Lee
Crabtree
Every time I go back to those years, it's no wonder our offense was unstoppable for a long time.
I don't think Ted had one miss at WR in the first 3 rounds after Terrance Murphy up to Ty Montgomery. So basically from 2006 - 2014 he batted a 1.000 in Rd 2 and 3.
That's how you build one of the best position groups ever. By not missing.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 11:38
by Yoop
Teds problems on defense where only partly his fault, sure he missed on some high pick D lineman, but then who doesn't, and he missed on some mid to late round secondary players again quite common, and was tight as birch bark with spending on FA's, but what hurt this defense the most from 012 on where the injury's, year after year we lost either every freaking starter at a position or just about every one, and had to fill in with backups, often 3rd and 4th stringers, so not only is it a talent drain, it also shoots to hell position chemistry, so necessary in stuff like zone coverage, so easy to blame Ted or Capers when so often it had nothing to do with either, what is it 2 or 3 seasons out of 10 that Mathews didn't lose 4 games to injury year in and year out, or play half the seasons dinged up, when folks say injury's are no excuse, they are not talking about there own team
when it is there team, then they throw that excuse out to defend there team, always makes me laugh.
Re: Packers over the Decade
Posted: 19 Jun 2020 11:39
by Pugger
Labrev wrote: ↑19 Jun 2020 00:07
Pugger wrote: ↑18 Jun 2020 13:49
What I found telling is the year we won it all was the lone time our D was ranked in the top 5.
To be fair, we could have won it all in 2014 as well if our ST play was just competent during that Seahawks travesty. We had already played and beaten the eventual winner that year (NE).
Yes, losing that game was a real shame but the D didn't play all that great down the stretch in that game either.
