Packers Huddle

Just because a lot of our conversations are going to go this route, I thought we might have a central place for some of these discussions.

Most seem to think it's a foregone conclusion that Preston Smith will be gone next year and I am just thinking about the flip side of that. Let's say it was a down year and the FO thinks he can bounce back. They want him back. Are there things the Packers can do that make this more amendable? Does anyone think Preston Smith really wants to get cut and hit this market?

What about a dummy extension? Give him a one year extension worth $20M (non-guaranteed) and convert his 2021 base salary (6.8M) into bonus (essentially guaranteeing his 2021 pay). I think minimum salary is around $1M for a player with his experience, so roughly $6M converted to bonus.

That would reduce his 2021 cap number by about $4M down to $12M and make his dead money $8M next year instead of this year. Would you rather pay $12M for Preston to play vs $8M to not play?

Smith still gets his money for this year, would he balk at this?

Any downside to doing this that I am not thinking of?

I realize they could just do a simple restructure using my example to lower his cap to $13M next season, but was just curious about the dummy extension example. Does anything prohibit doing that?

Smith also has a $4.5M roster bonus that could also be factored in, but for ease of illustration, I didn't use it. So, technically, I think they could convert that, too, meaning about $10M could be spread out over 2 or 3 seasons.

Thanks, NCF.

With the development of Gary it would seem Preston is going to see far fewer snaps in addition to less money should we keep him. Doesn't seem very attractive for him unless he really likes GB. Of course that assumes we are looking to cut or restructure him.

I am a huge Gary proponent, but I want to keep Smith. He is an ideal #3 EDGE, sans the price, but price is not a big deal to me if you are getting good production out of their position somehow (not necessarily from the highest-paid players). Solid against the run, decent pass-rush, can have strong games even in down years.

Also, for some odd reason, Preston seems to go back and forth between high and low sack totals every other year:

WAS -- 8, 4.5, 8, 4.
GB -- 12, 4, [?], [?].

If this is anything to go by, we can expect a solid or better year from him next season. Year 4, though... don't even think about it!!

Labrev wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 15:42

I am a huge Gary proponent, but I want to keep Smith. He is an ideal #3 EDGE, sans the price, but price is not a big deal to me if you are getting good production out of their position somehow

Completely agree.

I don’t think preston had a bad second half of the year. That said, he probably didn’t have a year that warrants his cap number.

But it really just comes down to resources. You can’t have the number 12 overall pick in his third season still coming off the bench. Preston must be cut or traded, or the Gary pick becomes a disaster. Good teams need value and production from their top 15 pick in year 3.

Preston has to go, Gary has to play, and money has to be saved.

Itl be Year 3. It’s time for Gary to be a leader of this defense.

Biggest thing for Preston will be the salary cap.

Are we heading into the offseason 30 million over the cap? Then yeah, he's probably gotta go.

Or are we heading in closer to right on the cap? Then he could probably stay.

Reports are that cap isn't going down as much as anticipated. Looks like only $15 million instead of $25 million. That is even before they smooth the cap.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:03

Reports are that cap isn't going down as much as anticipated. Looks like only $15 million instead of $25 million. That is even before they smooth the cap.

Both my mocks, I have kept the cap level to 2020, I think this is near likely the best guess.

BF004 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:09

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:03

Reports are that cap isn't going down as much as anticipated. Looks like only $15 million instead of $25 million. That is even before they smooth the cap.

Both my mocks, I have kept the cap level to 2020, I think this is near likely the best guess.

100% agree. Lower the cap would $%@# too many teams.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:22

BF004 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:09

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:03

Reports are that cap isn't going down as much as anticipated. Looks like only $15 million instead of $25 million. That is even before they smooth the cap.

Both my mocks, I have kept the cap level to 2020, I think this is near likely the best guess.

100% agree. Lower the cap would $%@# too many teams.

And its like, hey players, do you want a reduced cap next year which is going to hurt nearly every FA and then play a 17 game season so guys drafted in 3 years can reap all the benefits?

Owner's really got all the leverage here on negotiations.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:03

Reports are that cap isn't going down as much as anticipated. Looks like only $15 million instead of $25 million. That is even before they smooth the cap.

Yeah. Sounds like the GM's and NFLPA have been told to expect a $180 million to $185 million cap for 2021. So down anywhere from $15 to $20 million.

Still a hit that will require decisions.

Labrev wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 15:42

I am a huge Gary proponent, but I want to keep Smith. He is an ideal #3 EDGE, sans the price, but price is not a big deal to me if you are getting good production out of their position somehow (not necessarily from the highest-paid players). Solid against the run, decent pass-rush, can have strong games even in down years.

Also, for some odd reason, Preston seems to go back and forth between high and low sack totals every other year:

WAS -- 8, 4.5, 8, 4.
GB -- 12, 4, [?], [?].

If this is anything to go by, we can expect a solid or better year from him next season. Year 4, though... don't even think about it!!

I hope we keep Preston too as long as our new DC doesn't ask him to cover TEs.

And again. I am totally for a 17 game season.

If it means each team gets two buys and long term plan is the 17th game is a neutral game (like England).

None of this seems to hard to me. Give each team one regular bye and give the other bye the week following the international game.

go pak go wrote: ↑

06 Feb 2021 07:38

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

05 Feb 2021 17:03

Reports are that cap isn't going down as much as anticipated. Looks like only $15 million instead of $25 million. That is even before they smooth the cap.

Yeah. Sounds like the GM's and NFLPA have been told to expect a $180 million to $185 million cap for 2021. So down anywhere from $15 to $20 million.

Still a hit that will require decisions.

It's going down to $180 or $185M... before they dick with it. Like others have said, it seems more likely that they will spread the shortage to keep the cap flat to 2020.

Owners will agree to spread out the hit if players are willing to play 17 games.

Seems pretty straight forward.

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Feb 2021 11:48

Owners will agree to spread out the hit if players are willing to play 17 games.

Seems pretty straight forward.

Yep, except the players don't seem to want to entertain that idea. Not unless other concessions are made (pre-season, camps, roster sizes, etc).

paco wrote: ↑

07 Feb 2021 12:03

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Feb 2021 11:48

Owners will agree to spread out the hit if players are willing to play 17 games.

Seems pretty straight forward.

Yep, except the players don't seem to want to entertain that idea. Not unless other concessions are made (pre-season, camps, roster sizes, etc).

This is where the NFLPA makes no sense to me.

Like Presseason and Training Camp are so very important for players 25 to 60 on the roster. So why are their interests never considered in these negotiations?

I just feel like the NFLPA is "whatever is best for the stars"